Bow Tie Betting Football

Here are some quick notes that may affect your betting…but probably shouldn’t:

Coach speak is going full sail ahead with Coach Kill (He thinks his schedule is tough…if playing 3 of the worst BCS teams is too tough for you maybe you should look towards the FCS.)

Jerry Kill refuses to name a QB.  We think he thinks he knows who he’s going to call, but do we?

Coach Rhoads thinks his D only needs to improves on “Rush yardage, pass yardage, total yardage…”  Seems easy enough.

Iowa State plans to play 3 true freshman on Thursday.  This means either they’re in trouble, winning a blowout, or…just love to blow redshirts.

Safety Mike O’Connell feels…well…he doesn’t know how to feel about his defense.  And frankly none of us do either.

Jerry Kill thinks Coach Rhoads knows football…which…I guess is news that a D1 coach knows football?

Well that time is just about here – one week from yesterday the NCAA FBS football season will be on and rocking!

This year we have a new TOP SECRET betting formula that we are going to use to select 5 games each week (to eliminate those “tie” weeks.)

Each week we are going to pretend we’re using $100 per bet, and my pretend starting balance is going to be $1000.

Bank:  $1000

Game 1

Thursday September 2

FSN

There are shockingly FEW ISU highlight videos on YouTube…search it yourself!

Here’s what you have to notice from the Video:

-  The bulk of the highlights are vs. Baylor and Kent State.  That’s like me making a highlight video of myself dunking on 3rd graders.  While they’re trying their best they don’t really belong on the court.

-  The “highlights” of the Nebraska game aren’t really highlights as much as they are moments where it shows ISU doing not as bad as Nebraska.

-  Nothing says class like storming the field vs. Colorado.  Yeah, the Colorado who lost to Toledo by 100000.  (To be fair they did clinch a bowl bid – and that’s a big deal for Iowa State.)

So…what do we take away from all of the highlights?  ISU isn’t the awful ISU we all used to know.  Coach Paul Rhoads had a great first season where the ball bounced his way and a soft schedule walked them into a bowl game – but don’t like the bowl game fool you.  This is still Iowa State – this season towards the bottom of the Big 12.  They are playing Northern Illinois – towards the top of the MAC.  Can the top of the MAC beat the bottom of the Big 12?  In the opening weekending they can.

Mr. Bowtie Predicted Spread – NIU by 4.25 (yes…it really says .25 points…)

Game 2

ESPN

3:30p

	163	Purdue Boilermakers	+11 -110		54 O -110 U -110
	164	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-11 -110

NBC

3:30p

	171	UCLA Bruins	+3 -110		43 O -110 U -110
	172	Kansas State Wildcats	-3 -110

ABC

Mr Bowtie Predicted Spread – Syracuse wins by 13.3333333  (Good luck with that one Mr. Bowtie!)

****All lines are from BetUs.com Friday August 27 9:15AM

Here are some early lines for Week 1 you should make note of, maybe even take some action on now if you can:

Purdue +11

@

Notre Dame

Why:  The Notre Dame hype machine is running full steam ahead.  With the Chicago Tribune putting the big push behind coach Kelly how can you not bet on Notre Dame?  Simple – Coach Kelly was always lucky enough to take over a program with talent then cash in on his success.  The problem?  This time Notre Dame isn’t a CMU or Cincy, a program that is more talented than it’s peers, rather it’s a program that would be considered a middle of the road Big 10 team if they were in the conference.  The good news for Purdue is that I would consider them ALSO a middle of the road Big 10 team – that is unless of course Marve lives up to the hype, then they’re a higher tier of Big 10 squad.

The point here is this, ND is always hyped up, Purdue isn’t getting the type of respect early that they most likely deserve.  Will Purdue win?  Eh…probably,  but they will damn sure keep it within 11.

Minnesota + 4.5

@

MTSU

Why:  Look, I think MTSU is a good squad – and I like them at home, my only problem is that they are a good Sun Belt team.  The problem with that is that the Sun Belt kinda sucks.  They had a HUGE win last year vs. Maryland.  That’s right they beat a 2-10 program by a point and it was a massive win.  Minnesota isn’t Maryland bad.  I mean Minnesota is BAD, just not that bad.

Minnesota will win this game, they won’t win by a blow out but they’ll win.  Early in the season on the road with a senior QB, I just don’t see Minnesota in any sort of trouble.  Take this bet, and take it quick before the line flips the other way.

Northern Illinois + 3

@

Iowa State

Why:  Let me start by saying that ISU has a better team than they have had in years past.  Let me also say that Northern Illinois has probably the most talented team in the MAC (yes Temple, I see you and I still think Northern has more talent across the board) and the most talented team they’ve had in years.  The thing that is going to make you think about this bet are the intangibles.

Northen Illinois is having a wide open QB competition.  Normally when you have a QB returning after 2 years of starting you’d think he’d have the job, nope.  Chandler Harnish, former starter, is now most likely backing up DeMarcus Grady.  The reason this should make you say “ah hah!” is because DeMarcus Grady is a runner.  Chandler Harnish isn’t as mobile (after injuries).  So what do we take from this?  NIU is trying to be more explosive.  Neither QB is going to light the world on fire with their passing, but Grady could keep defenses honest with his deep ball arm.  With a ton of different options to run the ball down your throat NIU will keep the game close and milk the clock.

Iowa State, talk about a team snake bitten before they even had a chance.  If they aren’t suspending a captain they are fighting back a flood that threatened most of campus.  I will say I like Arnaud and Robinson a lot.  But with Arnuad’s uncanny ability to turn the ball over it makes me nervous to ever think of them as a “favorite”.  If you turn the ball over, and give up points ATS, I’m not going to bet on you.  Suspending David Sims is probably not going to help.  I look at ISU as a questionable D with an explosive offense.  An explosive offense that often blows up in their own faces. 

So why bet on Northern?  Look at NIU this year vs Kansas State last year.  Kansas State beat Iowa State by running the ball and having some nice passes hit the mark from Grant Gregory.  That’s how I see the NIU vs ISU game playing out this year.  Close, with some timely passing by NIU.

As a quick sidenote, NIU probably has the best shot of going unbeaten among all the smaller conferences lightweights (TCU, BOISE don’t count.)

One thing I need to point out before these kids report back to campus and starting working on the 2010 season – if you’re going to bet Week 1 you’re going to have to pay attention to what little nuggets of information the beat reporters give you in their camp writeups.

If anyone knows anything about what’s happening day to day in these camps it’s going to be the beat reporters from the local newspapers.  No I’m not talking the Chicago Tribune for the Illinois/Notre Dame/NIU/Northwestern reporting, I’m talking their local papers.  Champaign/South Bend/DeKalb/Evanston.  The truth is if you are thinking of betting on a team you better darn well stay on top of all of the reports from those teams for Week 1.

The point is that NOW you should begin your focus on Week 1 – not 4 weeks from now.  To prepare to bet on a football season isn’t exactly difficult work!  Read reports…in newspapers…and online….about football?  How does one do it?

Well conference expansion is certainly heating up today with the Big 10, Big 12, and PAC 10 all talking expansion during their meetings.

What it looks like is going to happen is the Big 12 is going to vanish.  6 teams are going to the PAC 10, 3 teams to the Big 10, and 3 are going to be left out.

Here’s the rumors of who is going where in the Big 12:

The PAC 10

Rumors were really flying about this one recently but a few of my sources have given me who they are fairly certain the 6 invitees are:

Colorado

Kansas

Kansas State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Baylor

*In this grouping there would be an East/West for the PAC 10.  The final team “Baylor” is more of a guess than an actual rumor.  They have been the only ones who seemed willing to move without their Texas friends.

The Big 10

Don’t let the Big 10 fool you.  They want the 3 schools they offered from the Big 12.  If they can grab 2 more from the Big East then so be it (They most likely don’t want to bring Texas A&M/Tech on board if they don’t have to.)

Missouri

Nebraska

Texas

*  This is about as straight forward a realignment as the Big 10 can make.  Like stated earlier things get a bit more complicated if Tech/A&M have to come along.  The Big 10 Sure does seem to want to grab Pitt/Rutgers out of the Big East if they can get Texas with Tech/A&M.  This my friends is where the Big 10 meetings are most likely at a standstill.  The “What if?”  What if they have to take all 3 Texas schools?  What if they told Texas either come alone or don’t come at all?  Who would their 3rd team be (Iowa State is quietly praying it’s them.)

Who’s Left

Iowa State

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

*  Just because these 3 aren’t first choices of anyone doesn’t mean they are going anywhere.  Tech/A&M may piggy back with Texas, or heck move somewhere else all together.  Iowa State is a real interesting case because they could go anywhere!  My honest opinion is that these 3 could build their own conference if they wanted to grab schools from surrounding them to get a BCS bid.

The New BCS Conference (Let’s Pretend they keep the Name “the Big 12″)

North (Assuming they cannot poach Big East Schools)

Iowa State – When else are they going to get a chance to lead a conference in anything?

Northern Illinois – “Chicago” market.  Well at least they are near Chicago anyway.  New Football building + Newish Basketball arena makes them an attractive choice.

Miami OH – A bit of a stretch in terms of distance, but they bring a wondering Academic and Athletic tradition.

Western Michigan – Not a bad school, has potential to grow up

Central Michigan – See Western Michigan

Western Kentucky – Ummmmm…I don’t really want them here, but for Geographical purposes it was them OR Ball State. Pick your poison.

*If they could grab Big East Schools I’d say goodbye to just about everyone on the above list except ISU, NIU, Miami (OH).  The reason for the above (less WKU) is that they are decent enough in athletics to not completely destroy the conference before it begins with a lack of competition.  They’ll build up to BCS level eventually and each of the above schools has a good chance to do so.

South

Texas A&M – They might be the bell cow of this conference.

Texas Tech – Gets a chance to shine outside their big brother (Texas)

Texas Christian – Tell me they don’t want a chance each year to beat on the above 2 schools.

New Mexico State  -  Plays in the WAC, and can live without an instate brother being in the same conference.

Arkansas State – Maybe too big of a jump but they are in the right spot at the right time.  Just outside of Texas.  Now.

Tulsa – See Arkansas State

*  This would be the South’s conference for a while, but if the North can grab some Big East castoffs things may be a little bit different.  The top of this conference is good enough to not look bad in a BCS bowl bid, and the bottom is just good enough to beat on most Non-BCS schools.

***Another option for the Texas schools (A&M and Tech) is that they stick together, grab TCU, UAB, Arkansas State, La Tech, Tulsa – and for the West of a conference with the “Other Florida Schools.”

Well, according to TMZ.com that’s what his wife thinks.

Lynette Taylor thinks that her husband has been set up in this whole “Rape” thing. 

That’s right folks, this is going under the “OJ” file or as I like to call it “Hey you know that athlete who did all sorts of great things for the state of New York?  It’s time for some payback…” 

From what little bits and pieces that are slipping out to various media outlets here’s how the story goes in a quick one sentence version:

LT paid a 16 year old girl’s pimp for sex.

And…that’s it.

There really isn’t too much to say here to be like, “Ohhhh man…LT was totally set up – it was some other dude they found in that Holiday Inn Express…and that other dudes used condom…”

Without all the details can I say for sure if LT was set up?  No.  However, using common sense, I can say that I think that LT is totally guilty.

Now let’s bring this all back to College football – Lawrence Taylor’s son plays for Purdue.  Brandon Taylor is going to be a Red – Shirt Freshman with the Boilers and you can’t help but feel like he’s going to get a lot of attention that he isn’t going to be real comfortable with.  Brandon’s nickname, according to the Purdue Media Guide from the spring game, is “BLT”

Nice.

Not being football season there isn’t a whole ton to write about, but I want to throw my 2 cents into the bucket here on this whole “taser” debate.

Nothing bugs me more than some idiot who runs onto the field during a baseball game.  It’s like, “Hey Jackass – baseball games are long enough without you fucking around out there.”

And living in Chicago has given me a unique perspective on these whole “fan interference” things in baseball.  But let’s start with a few nights ago in Philly, this jackass decided to run on the field:

A few things to point out, the kid on the video is 17 – and a douche.

You may ask, “Why did the cops tase him, what is a 17 year old douche going to do on the baseball diamond?”

Living in Chicago I remember this little event taking place that involved a 17 year old Douche…and his father (also a huge douche):

Fast forward to 1:07.

Douche - White Sox Fan, who scares willie harris

And there is the perfect example of what happens when you let a douche run on the field thinking it’s all “in good fun.”  Sure the argument could be made that Willie Harris is a pussy and didn’t do anything to help out that first base coach, but you don’t need to argue that fact.  Willie Harris IS a pussy.

The point here is that if you run on the field you have to be stopped, no one knows what you are doing…especially if you are a 17 year old douche.

One last word, or video, of advice – if you run on the field you deserve to get your ass kicked.  Look at what happens to fans who mess with Hockey or Football players.  I’d say this kid got off easy.

Week 1

Northern Illinois

@

Iowa State

I like Northern Illinois in this season kick off game.  Why?  Because Northern Illinois and Iowa State are mirrors – with Iowa State having that shine of a Big 12 team without all that pesky talent to weigh them down.  Northern Illinois plays in the MAC and carrys the talent of a lower level Big 12 team like Iowa State.  The most perfect matchup for a “small” conference school vs. a BCS school is one early in the season, without a major gap in talent.

You also have to consider the fact that the upperclassmen on Northern Illinois football team have played in large BCS stadiums before and will not have any trouble adjusting to the “noise” at Jack Trice Stadium.

Week 2

Colorado

@

California

I like Colorado in this game.  Why?  Because these aren’t intramurals Brother!

Dan Hawkins is questioned by Mean Gene

Mean Gene…the best interviewer in the game.  And if Hawkins can go toe to toe with him, he sure as hell can beat up Cal.

On the subject of Mean Gene is there a guy who can keep a straight face during an awful interview better than him?

I don’t know about you but I would have been like…wait…can he say that?  I mean…he is black…so…is this cool?

And, one last note about this game, I have a feeling if someone were to give that type of interview, complete with blooper, it would be Dan Hawkins.  No doubt about it.

Week 3

Alabama

@

Duke

I like Duke here.  Why?  Because if you click on the ESPN schedule you’ll see that Cincinnati is playing North Carolina AND North Carolina State…AT THE SAME TIME.  (How’s that for my Chewbacca defense?)

Week 4

Western Kentucky

@

South Florida

I like Western Kentucky here.  Why?  Because the truth is that Skip Holtz isn’t near as crazy as Jim Leavitt “To Beaver” was.  And if you hire a coach who isn’t crazy, AFTER you had a coach who was crazy, you won’t win.  I think it has more to do with players playing well because they’re scared of their coach.  I mean if you like a coach you’ll run through a wall for him (which in football would be counter-productive because the wall could trip you up) but if you’re scared of a coach you’ll run OVER or AROUND the wall (which works for football.)  Game-Set-Match.

Week 5

UL – Monroe

@

Auburn

I’m going to take UL-Monroe.  Why?  I don’t know.  After week 1 my picks are pretty much a toss up.  Anything can happen between week 1 and week 5 in college football.  Teams can literally implode in less time than that.  Also – you look at the schedule and find me a game that you can’t say is at best a 5 or 6 point spread and then I’ll listen to you.  This week has too many close games – so by default UL- Monroe has to beat Auburn.

Week 6

Oklahoma State

@

UL – Lafayette

I’m gonna take UL Lafayette here…

No reason.  Just because.  It’s a home game UL-Lafayette is poised to have a pretty solid year.  Mid-Season away games for BCS @ Non-BCS teams make me nervous for the BCS team.  ULL should win this one.  (That’s a serious pick.)

Week 7

Cincinnati

@

Louisville

I’m going to take Louisville here, but Louisville hasn’t been good in a long…long time.  You know what they have that is good:

Becca Manns - Cheerleader, Naked Chick.

Ohhhh…you don’t know Becca Manns?  Here you go you can read up on it:  Becca Manns Former Louisville Cheerleader

Week 8

Purdue

@

Ohio State

I like Purdue here.  You know how I talked about the fact teams could implode this upcomming season?  The #1 team on the “implode watch” is Ohio State.  Something just doesn’t feel right up there.  I don’t know what it is – maybe the fact their “rival” Michigan sucks…and they don’t have a ton to look forward to?  I don’t know.  It just feels like a weird game for Ohio State.  Oh yeah, Purdue beat Ohio State last season AND they have a transfer QB (Marve) from Miami.  I don’t know about you but Purdue is looking better and better to me.

Week 9

Baylor

@

Texas

I like Baylor.  But I’m not sure at this point in the season if it’s going to be an upset.  Sure Texas ALWAYS has the best players, but they are giving me an Ohio State type vibe this season.  Something is right.  Maybe it was Coach Brown at the NFL draft, but I don’t think I like their team this year.

Week 10

Iowa

@

Indiana

Indiana is at home.  That’s good right?

Week 11

South Carolina

@

Florida

The Ol’ Ball Coach is due…he’s gotta be.  And Urban Meyer coming back as quickly as he has kind of makes me nervous about his long term and short term health.  Because of that I go with the other USC.

Week 12

Mississippi

@

LSU

I hate to pick against LSU here, I really do, but I kind of think Ole Miss is in a better place with what’s his name being gone…you know…the leader of your team and school who did nothing but tear it apart???  You know the guy who was out there trying to get some poon when he should have been focused on his job…and that was helping the team get more wins.  You know who I mean…he wasn’t drafted this year for a reason – and he was booted from the school:

Colonel Reb...wasn't drafted.

Week 13

Boston College

@

Syracuse

Syracuse has a newish coach – and a new system that will be more in place now that it ever was.  Of course we can say that for every week this season, but still.

Week 14

Washington

@

Washington State

Washington State isn’t great, I know this, but they’re due.  Aren’t they?  Have I already said they’re due as a reason a team should win this season?  I have?  Crap.  Well I’m using it again.

Week 15

Navy

@

Army

Well…it’s the only game this week – and I had to pick an upset…so…Army!  The truth is Army is getting better and better I’m not even sure that an Army win at “home” this year will be an upset.  I really don’t think it will be in fact, but I’m taking them anyway.

There you have it!  My SUPER DUPER early pick for upsets this season…that’s right…upset picks before the 2-deeps are out and this year of school has ended.

Interesting….

-  The St. Louis Rams managed to draft a QB with questionable durability (Sam Bradford), and ability in a pro scheme, in the last first round that will pay unproven rookies like sure fire hall of famers.  Well done St. Louis, well done.

-  The Lions were able to draft the best player in the draft (Ndamukong Suh) with their #2 pick, and then were able to trade up again in to the first round and draft a guy who many thought was going to be the best RB in the draft this year (Jahvid Best) before he broke his brain…couple that with last years draft where in the first 2 rounds they were able to grab the #1 safety, #1 QB and #1 TE you can see that minus Matt Millen the Lions are actually starting to build something.

-  The Raiders didn’t do anything crazy…anyone else hoping they were going to draft Bruce Campbell?  Not the OT from Maryland, but the Actor.

-  Pete Caroll actually had a decent first round, he grabbed a tackle (Russell Okung) who is a true left tackle AND a safety (Earl Thomas) who could be the best at their positions in this draft.  There was a lot of talk that Caroll would find a way to muck this up…he didn’t.

-  Speaking of mucking things up, the Jaguars drafted a sure fire second rounder (Tyson Alualu) at #10…and it wasn’t Tebow.  Nothing will help you sell tickets like a reach at #10…nothing.

-  How pissed do you think the Patriots are this morning?  They were spewing crap about how they wanted to draft a corner…and actually drafted a corner  (Devin McCourty).  Is it just me or did all their talk lead anyone else to think that they didn’t really want a corner.  Rumor is they wanted Jermaine Gresham…(More on this in a bit…)

-  There’s a tie for the “Good Things Come to Those Who Wait” award in the first round:

Tennessee Titans were just sittin around chillin…and all of the sudden BOTH of the DEs they wanted were available with only 1 team left to pick ahead of them.  And they were able to get the guy that most everyone agrees was #1 on the board at DE (Derrick Morgan).

New York Jets…since they got rid of the Mangenius they have been having some of the “smarter” off season moves of the year.  Nothing exemplifies that like waiting around at #29 and drafting a guy who was close to, if not the, #1 corner in the draft (Kyle Wilson).

-  The “Guys this might be kind of crazy…but I’m about to try to do something awesome” award is another tie:

Dallas moved up and drafted the hands down hardest player to project in this draft (Dez Bryant).  I know some teams will say Tebow, but you know Tebow will work…if he fails it’s because…

Denver moved up and drafted the 2nd hardest player to project in the first round (Tim Tebow).  Denver, who already traded for a young QB in Brady Quinn, decided now was the time to fill their multiple holes on defense and offense with…a 3rd string QB.  Will this pay off in 5 years?  Maybe?  I’ll tell you what I like about Tebow:

Tim Tebow...Say what you want about his throwing motion but he sure can spot a tight end!

RUMORS

You know how if you stick around gambling long enough you find some guy who has more information about things than he should?  He looks like a homeless dude who drinks a 40 for breakfast, but some how has more inside information that Mort ever dreamed?  Yeah here’s what this guy has said:

-  “The only thing that will stop the Bears from trading Greg Olsen to the Patriots is the fact Jerry Angelo is afriad that Belichick is tricking him.” 

-  “Charlie Weis doesn’t want Clausen, but does want a team to jump ahead of the Chiefs to draft Jimmy.  Opening things up for the Chiefs to grab a guy they really want.”  (Think Saffold…)

-  “Eagles are promoting the Weis/KC wants Jimmy rumor too.  They want someone to jump up and grab the QB so they can have one of their safety picks slip to them in the 2nd Mays or Allen.”

-  “At this point a few other teams are wishing that Holmgren like Clausen more.”

-  “Mays will slip a little bit further than some projected.  I’m not sure the Eagles like him, but they sure want someone to think they do. ”

And those are your thoughts/rumors for First/Second/Third rounds.