Bow Tie Betting Football

Last week was OK, I’ll recap last week tomorrow or Sunday, but right now I want to drop my picks on you guys!

Central Michigan +1.5

Indiana -1.5

This is a very interesting game, CMU at times has the greatest offense you will ever want to see on the football field, and at other times Dan LeFevor looks beatable.  I wanted to pick Indiana here, I really did, I love the Hoosiers - not because they are good at football, but because they are so bad.  Sadly, I still think even if bad CMU shows up they beat IU.  Take CMU by at least 3.

Pittsburgh +5

Notre Dame -5

This is one of those games that I’m going to have to advise you to not listen to me…I’m betting with my heart.  I don’t “hate” Notre Dame as much as some people, but I do feel that their fans think their robust 5-2 record should have them right in the BCS talk.  The only problem here people is that their 5 wins came against TERRIBLE teams, and their 2 losses were to AVERAGE at BEST teams.  They did not lose to the cream of the crop - and I think Coach Mustache will have his Pitt Panthers ready to beat up on cream puff that is ND.  Take Pitt with the points, and they will probably win too.  Just a quick side note…this game scares me, it’s a PROVE what your team is type game, if ND loses to PITT they aren’t a top 25 team like they seem to think they are, if they WIN they deserve some Top 25 talk…that my friend is motivation we can’t measure, but I still see Coach Mustache doin his thing.

Michigan +2.5

Purdue -2.5

This is just the type of game Joe Tiller needs, his team sucks, it’s his last season, and he wants something to hang his hat on, beating Michigan is a good enough hat rack at this point.  Bowl hopes are gone in West Lafayette, so this is their Bowl game.  Purude by 6.

FSU +2.5

Georgia Tech -2.5

Why pick Florida State in this one?  I’m not sure, I’m really just not sure.  I know they have the better talent, I know that at times it seems like FSU is on the right path, but 40 seconds later they blow it wth a stupid mistake and make everyone look stupid!  FSU has one loss…in which they LOOKED TERRIBLE…but only 1 loss.  I’m taking FSU, who is the dog, while being ranked #15.  They should win outright in fact, so if you want to take that one too, do it.

Those are my picks, check back for a recap and the computer picks next week!

Week 8 was OK for me.  I went 3-2, I won a little bit of cash (if I were betting of course), and I got some respect back after that 2-2 of week 7.

The Machine is still off getting fixed, although i was hoping to have him fixed by today for the picks, but what can you do?

By the way, a 3 - 2 week is like Jenn Sterger.  Sure she’s hot, and no one would complain about it, but there is that thought in the back of your head that “I can do better than something Musberger found…”

Here are my picks:

Louisiana Tech +2.5

Army -2.5

I don’t care how bad you are, if Army is favored over you in a football game you are over due for a win.  The thing that really confuses me about this line is that LA Tech is 3-3, they beat Mississippi State, AND Army barely beat EMU.  I don’t know too much about either team, but I know EMU sucks and I know Mississippi State is in the SEC, Army is not.  Give me LA Tech easily in this one.

Kentucky +25.5

Florida -25.5

Here’s what I like about Kentucky…well you know what I don’t really like anything, they are getting 25.5 points and have won 5 games losing only by 3 to Alabama.  I don’t see where they are getting this 25.5 line, that’s really a bold step to make by the odds makers if they are that sure that the GOOD Florida O is going to show up.

Bowling Green +7.5

Northern Illinois -7.5

This is an interesting game for a few reasons, the Huskies are hot on the current homestand and have only allowed 2 TDs on defense in their last 5 GAMES! The only problem is that Bowling Green can only seem to win when they are on the road.  This is going to be a good game for Northern to prove if they are in the MAC race or not.  With a loss removing NIU from the MAC West race I feel like they are going to be playing hard, so a 10 point win isn’t out of the question here.

CMU -3.5

Toledo +3.5

Well last week I won because of both of these teams.  Toledo is a very bad football team and gave NIU that easy win, and CMU beat a pretty darn good WMU team.  What I don’t understand is why this line is so small?  It’s possible that the concerns at CMU’s QB spot could be affecting the line, there is also the possibilty that Toledo can have a great game on O.  With all of that said I still feel like CMU is the team to pick in this game.

That’s all I got….Oh yeah, I almost forgot one thing:

3-2 is nice, no one is complaining, it's just you'd have liked to have done it on your own.

Last week was a rough one on everyone for a multitude of reasons, #1 being that I went 2-2.  The other reason being that it seems as if “The Machine” everyone’s favorite football picking computer + program is going to be down for what appears to be 2 weeks.  It burned up on me, but it can be saved, it’s just going to cost around $50 and 2 weeks time for parts.

Oh well, I can accept losing the Machine, it wasn’t like he was pulling his weight anyway.

As for last week, I kind of had that feeling that there was going to be a let down after a perfect week, I suppose it was something inside my head that tried to pick the perfect game instead of picking what felt right.  There wasn’t really much I could do about it.

A 2-2 week is like…well…it’s like Traci Bingham…After a good time you think you are making an upgrade, but after it’s over you realize that it’s just so-so.  We’ve all been there, and afterwards we all think back to what we had before and realize how much better it was…

Hi, I'm Traci Bingham, I seem like a good idea at the time, but you'll realize after I'm just your average run of the mill fame whore.

I like Traci Bingham, and she’s better than a lot of alternatives, but let’s try to not go there again this week, it can be bad for the pocketbook.

This week here are my picks:

Wake Forest -2

Maryland +2

Maryland hasn’t been the same since having it handed them in the opening game in 2003 against a MAC opponent.  That Maryland team was loaded with NFLers and broke a lot of hearts.  It’s with that in mind that I am going to pick Wake.  I like Riley Skinner, I like the way Wake manages and plays their game.  I think Maryland is much improved and on their way up in the ACC, but they just aren’t there yet.

Miami (FL) -3.5

Duke +3.5

I gotta tell you, when I first saw this line I thought everyone was insane!  There is no way this line should be this close, but then I began to break it down and yeah…this line is about where it should be.  Miami has a very flawed team, there is no doubt talent, but they just don’t seem to know how to play smart football, or winning football for that matter.  Duke is a team on the rise, they aren’t bowl worthy yet, but they will be bowling in a few short seasons.  The problem is this game isn’t played in the future, it’s being played right now.  Miami has enough natural talent to beat this young upstart, but they won’t for long.  Miami will probably take it by 4.

Purdue +4

Northwestern -4

What did we learn last week?  Well I didn’t learn anything, but if you read my blog maybe you finally learned that Northwestern isn’t a good football team.  They are an overhyped bunch that doesn’t really have that much talent.  They beat a lot of bad team, and Purude MAY be considered a bad team.  So why do I pick Purdue then?  I still think Painter can lead a team, I feel like Kory Sheets is a good football player, and I feel like Greg “Don’t Call me Kyle” Orton is one of the best recievers no one knows.  It’s those 3 guys who are going to keep Purdue within 4, heck Purdue may even boiler up and win.  Take Purude and the points.

Western Michigan -2

Central Michigan +2

This is a tough one, Dan LeFevour,  CMU QB and superstar, is hurt.  Western Michigan has been catching quite a few breaks playing NIU who lost their QB on the first series and now CMU down a QB.  Western is not that good of a team, but they are lucky.  They barely beat NIU while at home, so I don’t think they will beat a better CMU team in a rivalry game on the road.  Give me CMU, but this one will make me nervous till the end.

Toledo +8

Northern Illinois -8

I like Northern Illinois in this one.  They their starting QB coming back for the first time since he was hurt in the Western Michigan game as a starter.  I like that.  I like that Toledo is going to be “without” some starters (and by without I mean some guys won’t start after being arrested, but they will play.  So they are going to miss what 1 play?  Way to put a foot down Toledo.)  I like NIU having a homecoming game vs a team that beat them 70-21 last season.  I like NIU’s coach Jerry Kill, he’s a firery guy that I don’t think will let his team forget what happened last season.  Me’Co Brown, NIU’s Freshman Running Back, is a star waiting to shine and what better time than homecoming vs. a rival?  NIU takes it easily, Toledo is caught celebrating (oh wait they already were) and loses big time.
Those are the picks for this week (yeah I picked 5 games…let’s call it the Traci factor…I don’t want to do it again so soon after doing it last week).

DMD

How did “The Machine” pick this week?  Let’s find out!

Michigan State over Northwestern.  The Machine doesn’t believe in Northwestern or the early hype.  A small line of 1.5 to 2.5 is too small to pass up.  On a side note the Machine loves Ringer.  This is my favorite game of the week, I just have that feeling that MSU is a real good team and Northwestern’s fans don’t care that Northwestern is at home.

Notre Dame over UNC…wow.  I’m suprised because I know for a fact that the Machine loved UNC’s offense with Sexson and didn’t seem to care for Notre Dame.  The nice thing is that the Machine can in fact learn and DOES take other games into account, which still does not explain to me why Notre Dame is picked to win.  To be fair I know the Machine does take the growth of Jimmy Clausen into account, and believes that there is more talent on ND, but UNC is playing better. So I guess the machine takes talent over how a team is playing.

NIU over Miami (OH).  This is an easy one according to the machine, the Northern Illinois has the best defense in the MAC and Miami (OH) kind of stinks.  One thing to note is that Chandler Harnish should be healthy for this one for NIU, but DeMarcus Grady WILL get the start at QB.  DeMarcus just runs, the machine seems to feel that DeMarcus will put up enough yards and points vs. a bad Miami team.

Nebraska over Texas Tech, barely.  This is the closest of all the sims.  I don’t know how to feel, the 20.5 spread is a good thing, but the last time the Machine and I agreed so much it was a rough week for everyone.  I’ll agree though, the Nebraska D should be good enough this week to pull it out after a rough week last week.

Remember all of the machine’s picks are ATS.

Good Luck out there this week!

DMD

After a perfect week, one always runs the risk of trying to hard in the sequel.  It happens all the times in sports betting and in the world of movies.  I mean how many times have you gone out and seen a sequel to a great movie and thought “Why the heck didn’t they just keep the formula the same?”  That’s exactly the risk I run here after a perfect week, I even caught myself trying to be too perfect with some crazy picks.  So I took a step back, grabbed a smoothie and went at it again and I think I’m happy with these 4.

Michigan State -1.5

Northwestern    +1.5

This is an easy pick I ignored my first time through.  One of the things I like to pride my betting on is that I ignore the hype.  Northwestern is NOT a good team.  They are undefeated, but look at who they played!  Syracuse, Duke, Ohio, and Iowa are the only FBS teams they have beat this season.  Now, with that said you can only beat who you play.  Sadly this time they have beaten very bad teams and are now playing a very mean MSU team who will not overlook them because of their perfect 5-0 mark.  This game has big time BIG 10 implications, I expect both teams to play hard, and it will be a lot closer than I would normally think, but MSU wins by AT LEAST a field goal.

Notre Dame +7.5

North Carolina -7.5

A very strange game for me to pick.  Normally I wouldn’t think much of a UNC squad that has John Shoop at the helm of the offense, but this season they have done pretty well for me.  They have beaten Miami, so clearly they have speed, the only question I have about them is if they can show up as a favorite at home and BEAT ND.  Notre Dame is not a good team this season, they have beaten bad teams and got trounced by the one decent team on their schedule.  They won’t really be able to do too much against UNC because of the afore mentioned speed on the D.  It will be a closer game, but 10 points should be at least the margin UNC wins by in this one.  Speed kills.

Miami Ohio +11

Northern Illinois -11

You ever hear the phrase “Stay with who took you to the dance”?  Well that’s the case here, NIU is perfect against the spread this season and I really don’t see it stopping here.  NIU has the best D in the MAC and Miami Ohio is struggling a little bit this season.  You do have to worry about NIU and their QB situation, it looks like it’s going to be 3rd string QB DeMarcus Grady to get the start.  DeMarcus is a team leader in rushing and rushing TDs so he should do just fine leading the Huskies against the relatively soft Redhawks.  Huskies by at least 14.

Nebraska +20.5

Texas Tech -20.5

Why?  Why not?  Texas Tech is a great team, and they sure can put up some points, but maybe, just maybe Nebraska can slow them down and put a few scores on the board and keep it within 20.5.  This isn’t a bet that I normally make, but I fee it’s safe enough…You can take this game OR North Texas OVER UL Layfayette.  In fact I’d probably take both.  I know North Texas is supposed to be bad, but is ULL ever supposed to be good?  And by good I mean 21.5 better than North Texas.  Take Nebraska, Take NT.

Ok, those are my picks for this week.  The Machine makes his triumphant return tomorrow, so we shall see what the computer sim seems to think of my predictions.  Good luck out there!

It’s Tuesday, a little too early for me to make any early picks so I decided that today I was going to discuss a little bit of football betting theory with you guys.

Before I get into that I’d like to point out that numbers are exactly what we thought they were:  representations of what HAS happened to hopefully predict what WILL happen.  It doesn’t always work out like that, but it’s always nice to look at if you are one of those type of people.

The Numbers ARE what we THOUGHT they were!!!!

So, if you listen to Denny I think you will agree that numbers are a nice baseline, but in no way should they be the reason behind a bet.

These numbers should influence your NFL betting more than your College betting (the numbers hold more true in the NFL, but they do still hold some value for us).

Ok, let’s start with the average margin of victory for HOME teams vs. AWAY teams in the past 21 years, any guesses?  That’s right folks, it hovers right around that mystical 3 points.  It does at times move a little away from it high or low over the years but 3 seems to be the best number to use for the lines.  We see that if the game should be even the home team gets 3 points no matter what.  Personally that’s a stat I hate to use, something that if I keep in mind it makes me want to bet on the away team ALL the time (homefield advantage isn’t much in some stadiums so to give 3 to everyone is just dumb in my opinion).

Now we know that home teams get 3 points no matter what, how do they do against the spread?  Here is a real fun stat, the home team has won approx. 50% of the time.  That’s right folks, 50%.  So what we are saying here is that the home team and the away team have the same chance of winning ATS.  Weird!

Hmmmmm, so we can’t use any of that to our gambling advantage can we?  Here is a stat we can use to our advantage, over a 21 year period the underdog has won around 52% of the time ATS.  So if you were a crazy person who bet on every single game that year, if you bet on underdogs every time you’d have a pretty darn good chance of winning around 52% of the time based on past data.  Neat!!!  Although 2% isn’t really that great of an advantage when betting on a small sample now is it?

Here is actually a good stat when talking ATS, Home underdogs vs. Visiting favorites.  Any guesses as to what happens here?  This is a pretty big one actually, the home dog wins against the spread roughly 53.5% of the time.  WOW (Mostly WOW because the home team usually GETs 3 points that I don’t think they normally deserve).  That means the visiting favorite is sitting on 46.5%.  This stat is one that I SOMETIMES use when picking games.  A home dog usually keeps the game closer than the experts would predict.  I mean look at what happened to USC at Oregon State.

Those are just SOME of the fun stats you can use while betting on sports, but once again in a small sample does a 20 year trend really affect how you bet?  It shouldn’t.  If you don’t bet on enough games the percentages won’t really benefit you at all.

There are great books that cover these percentages and all sorts of other great numbers that you should pick up if you are interested in learning more about sports betting and some of the data over the years found in our Bowtiebetting Store!

Check back tomorrow for my picks on the games!

Normally, I would do a week 6 recap here, and talk about how I just barely missed 1 or 2 games, but not this week.

No, this week I was able to pull off what I should have been doing all year, the perfect mark 4-0 (really 5-0 if you pick the game I did in the first blog of this week.  For some reason I left the Cinncy game off the final picks).

Oregon State did the job, sure they lost the game but they lost close, that is all you can really ask from a team of young men who just came off the biggest upset of the college football season.  They will be a good team in a season or so, keep an eye on them.

Northern Illinois is a team I really felt bad for this week.  Sure they beat the spread and gave me a perfect mark on the week, but they should have beaten Tennessee.  Northern Illinois has by far the best defense in the MAC and their offense has some skill players.  They only problem they run into is that they can’t keep a quarterback healthy.

How good is North Carolina?  Seriously, because I have no idea.  They play out of their mind sometimes and just destroy good teams, then they have some real stinkers to mix in.  I can’t really figure them out.  What I do know is that UConn is not a good team, I’ve been saying that all year and their ranking in the top 25 was a joke (to be honest I didn’t even know they were ranked until I was watching the game).

South Carolina beat Ole Miss.  Normally that’s a non-story, but Ole Miss just beat Florida.  Here is the thing guys, Ole Miss was overrated because they beat a team that was even more overrated than themselves in Florida.  The Ol Ball Coach has a bad team, but they aren’t worse than Ole miss, and they can play D.  Sometimes when betting on games all you need is a team that can always play close, they can be 0-5 in the real world for all you care.  The only thing you should focus on is their record ATS.

On that note, my game ball for this week goes to Northern Illinois.  A perfect 5-0 record against the spread this season, and they were the ones who put the icing on my perfect week!  Great game, ok coaching, big win.

And now ladies and gentlemen the moment you were waiting for…You want to see the picture I put up of some hot chick to show you what a perfect week would be like.  I know I’ve been saying all along that a perfect week is like Christina Aguilera, and normally it would be, but this week I’m going another route.

Christina Aguilera normally is pretty awesome, but she just had a kid...she really can't represent a perfect week anymore...

So what do I do now.  Who can I possibly put into this post to show what perfect looks like?!?!?!

I know just the person!

Mr Perfect. That is me for this week, I think I should have my own trading card.

Check back tomorrow for my early picks for the week!

DMD

Here are my official picks for this week of the college football season:

Oregon State University +11.5

Utah -11.5

I like OSU, I like the Rogers’, but I just can’t help but feel a let down coming on.  A 12 point let down?  I’m not sure, so that’s why I’m going to take OSU.  Utah is a solid squad, but didn’t really “handle” Michigan the way they should have if they were going to beat up on BCS teams.  I think Oregon State has some confidence, they are a young squad and swagger is a good thing, so I’m going to take them in this bet.  Utah is a good team, just not 12 points better than OSU.

I’m going to DROP Cinci at Marshall, why?  Because I don’t really get a good feeling about this game either way.  I’m going to replace it with:

Northern Illinois +15.5

Tennessee -15.5

I’m taking the Huskies and here is why:  They are 4-0 ATS this season, MAC schools always play UP to the level of their opponent and Tennessee is about to have a mutiny in the locker room.  Need I say more?  Yeah I will, I don’t like rotating 2 quarterbacks for Tennessee, it may work if you have a runner with a straight drop back guy, but it won’t work when you have 2 QBs who are about the same.  The only thing this rotation will accomplish is killing whatever rhythm the QB has.  Tennessee is in bad shape right now, they will probably win this game, but I don’t think they are going to win by 16.

Connecticut +7

North Carolina -7

I still love UNC in this one, they have a young athletic team, and UCONN has a not so athletic team.  Pretty simple really.  I like the way UNC runs their offense with Sexon at the helm, they hit their big play guys and watch them work.  It’s a simple scheme that could only come from the mind of John Shoop after watching it fail miserably in the NFL.

South Carolina  +2.5

Ole Miss  -2.5

Ole Miss beat Florida, they have a great coach, and a QB who can make a case that he probably should be starting at Texas (if Colt wasn’t around of course).  The only thing they don’t have is experience being a winner and South Carolina will expose that.  South Carolina has a great defense, a terrible offense and a crazy coach.  I like that combination.  Give me South Carolina and the 2.5 please!

So that’s the pick summary for this week.  The Machine should be ready to rock tomorrow, so I’ll have the computer sim picks posted.  One thing to note, the computer doesn’t make any sort of “substitutions” so when Sexon came in for Paulus due to poor play the computer couldn’t make that decision during it’s game, hence the reason it assumed UNC was going to lose to Miami.  The Machine likes Sexon in Shoop’s offense, and so do I.

Oregon State University +11.5

Utah -11.5

This game is Thursday, so keep your eye on it.  It can really go 2 ways, either OSU has a major let down after beating USC, or their young team is very confident and excited to play another “good” team.  I really like the young players on OSU, I don’t love their QB, but what can you do?

Cincinnati -3.5

Marshall +3.5

Cincinnati is going to win this game, Marshall isn’t that great of a squad, in fact they are kind of a bad team.  I like Cincinnati, I don’t like how they lose a QB every quarter, but I like the rest of their squad.  While Cincinnati may not be world beaters, they don’t have to be vs. Marshall.  But watch this line, make sure it doesn’t move too far out past 3 or 4 points.

Connecticut +7

North Carolina -7

North Carolina is a solid team, there is no doubt about that.  Connecticut is a team that I do not like very much this season, it’s as simple as that.  Keep an eye on this game, North Carolina is a good bet as long as it doesn’t get past 10.

South Carolina  +2.5

Ole Miss  -2.5

I am thinking about an Ole MIss let down.  That’s about the only reason I’m watching this game, that and South Carolina can always keep games close.  They may not score much, but they will keep it close as an underdog.

Those are just games I’m keeping an eye on, I’ll let you know official picks a little later on in the week.

I finished the week 2-2, not quite what I was hoping for.  UNC beat Miami and ND beat Purdue, two terrible picks on my part.  I should have seen the fact that Purdue’s starting QB is kind of junky, and that UNC would have a backup to the backup come in and win the game (Sexon).  A great game on that kids part and I think UNC found their fill in QB until the starter is back.

NIU simply destroyed EMU and Michigan State romped Indiana.  I think based on those two games I’m going to have to keep an eye on those teams in the weeks coming up.  NIU is 4-0 ATS this season, so they are a team that you should have on your betting short list (and with a game this week vs. Tennessee the line should be pretty huge and worth keeping at least an eye on).

On a related note I’m glad I took my own advice and cut all bets that I would have made in half, it was just one of those weeks where nothing felt like a solid choice.  Heck, take a look at all of the upsets within the Top 25 and I think even the “experts” on ESPN would agree with me.

How did the Machine do? 1 - 3, not so great for my computer friend?  To be fair the Machine liked Sexon for UNC though, I ran the simulation with Sexon at QB and it had UNC on top big.  Weird how the Machine knew that, but he has to bet on the same information that we as normal humans have.

Anywhoo, the 2-2 mark sucked, but it could have been much worse…I’m racking my brain trying to think of what chick a 2-2 would be like but I have to admit I’m having some serious trouble.  I mean, a 2-2 is a SLIGHT loss of cash, and it’s ALMOST like breaking even, but it’s still a loss.  Although to be fair, the loss is like payment for the thrill of being able to play the betting game, so if I had to choose 1 person I’d say a 2-2 mark is like Kristen Dunst.  In the right light it looks like it could be a good thing, and it sure beats a whole lot of alternatives, but it’s not something you want to make a habit of doing or you could end up broke or with a disease.

Kirsten Dunst, like a 2-2 record, is ok to do once in awhile, but you don't want to make a habit of it.