Bow Tie Betting Football

So often people seem to think there is a system when picking the outcome of sporting events, and so often something like the Kentucky Derby happens.  A 50 - 1 LONGGGGGGGG shot manages to come out of no where and win the whole darn event.  The interesting thing to point out is that the 50-1 odds seem to indicate that someone, somewhere was betting on him.

So how did they do it?  Was there a system that was used that made this 50-1 long shot an obvious choice?  No.  It was simple mathmatics.  Often times some gamblers do not pick the horse/team/whatever that they think is going to win, they pick the team that has the best ROI with a decent chance to win.

What does that mean?  It means it was the Kentucky Derby, just about every horse in that race has some sort of hype behind it - be it the horses sire, or past performances, the moral of the story is that every horse had a chance.  And that was even more aparent when the early line and morning line favorite “I Want Revenge” was a late scratch.

So how does this apply to football - it’s simple really, teams that are supposed to win, don’t always win.  Not something that should be a shock to anyone, but the key is to find 3 or 4 teams to select who offer a fair ROI and have a chance in the game.  For example, Ole’ Miss v. Florida this season.  Why would anyone bet on Ole’ Miss?  Ole’ Miss is an SEC team, and for as bad as they have been they still were able to bring in some solid SEC type recruits.  They had a coach now who knows how to win in the SEC - and their QB was a transfer from Texas where he was supposed to be the next big thing, not Colt McCoy (according to Rivals Snead was only ranked slightly below Tebow.)  Couple with those factors the fact that Florida probably felt like they could walk over a team like Ole’ Miss and you have a recipe for an upset.

Now how many times does it happen that you have a recipe for an upset, and it doesn’t work out.  The favorite goes out and destroys that poor underdog - I’d say fairly often.  That’s why some would suggest you hedge your bets with 3 or 4 upsets that could happen, and not just on a miracle but based on some form of research.  Ole’ Miss is a team that you can keep your eye on as an “underdog” this season.  They have some talent, they won’t pull out a ton of wins in the SEC, but they will win SOME.

That’s just one type of “betting Theory” out there, keeping an eye on ROI not what you think is going to happen.  In fact this betting theory doesn’t suggest you bet on games you feel “good” about but games you feel least bad about.

The Detriot Lions recently came to terms with Matthew Stafford to be the #1 pick overall at about 3pm Central time.

Here is the big problem that everyone seems to have with this pick, they overpaid for a quarterback who many have as teh #2 QB and roughly the #8 player on their boards.

Leave it to the Lions to draft a guy who barely should be in the Top 10 and pay him the most any player has ever received on draft day.

Mark my words, this pick will hurt the Lions more than it will help.  They still have a lot of other picks and can grab a middle linebacker and tackle very early but that isn’t the issue.  They can fill their holes with draft picks, but the issue is that they now have $42 million (at least, that’t the money he’s assured of making) tied up in a quarterback who in my opinion is awful (yes, I said awful).

Mel Kiper is trying his hardest to make this seem like a good pick, but for the most part even Lions fans agree that it is an awful pick.

It’s just about 24 hours before the start of the NFL draft and there are some rumors to touch on right now:

The Lions, yeah the 0-16 Lions, are rumored to be listening to the Browns about a swap of 1st round picks if the Browns toss in Brady Quinn.

Why Might this happen:  The Lions need all the help they can get, with this trade they get a Quarterback and they maintain a top 5 pick.  The Browns seem to be all kinds of in love with Mark Sanchez and this is their shot to make a pass at him.  The Browns would save a few bucks by picking up Quinn and not paying a #1 overall price to Stafford.  It also makes sense because it would seem in the first round the Browns could pick up a QB (Quinn), an OT at #5, and a MLB/CB at #20.

Why it might not happen:  The Lions are the Lions.  They seem to have a genuine interest in paying Stafford to sit behind Culpepper and a bad offensive line for a few seasons.  The Browns may also be a bit nervous about trading to #1 and grabbing a QB with all of their receiver issues at this point.  Although if you factor in a trade of Edwards to the Giants for some picks(which would be WRs) then you can see how this is starting to workout.  The reports are no one in Browns-Town seems to care for Brady Quinn.

Cardinals trade Boldin to Bears/Eagles/Giants/Jets for a 2nd and 5th.

Why it might happen:  Well it kind of has to happen.  One of those teams is going to end up ponying up the 2nd rounder for him.  The Bears are a surprise team on this list, but consider this:  With their 2nd round pick they want a receiver Boldin > Any 2nd round receiver and the Bears have the 5th rounder from Denver that was thrown in in the Cutler deal.  So the Bears are very much alive in this with everyone else.

Why it won’t happen:  It can’t not happen…can it?

Washington Redskins move up to #1 overall

Why it might happen:  This is an interesting rumor, I don’t know that the skins have the fire power (it would have to be Campbell the #13 and some change) but they seem to really hate Campbell in Washington.  The Lions could duff this all up by coming to an agreement with Stafford on terms…but it’s not like the Lions to duff it up.

Why it won’t happen:  The Lions are the Lions, they are finally getting interest in the #1 pick, from teams who don’t want the guy they want(Which should set off some alarms…), but if they come to terms with Stafford the whole deal goes kablooeee!  So would the first trade I’m talking about.  The interesting team in all of this is the Rams, everyone kind of gets the vibe that you can’t trust them to NOT take a quarterback - very interesting.

And those were just some draft trade rumors to keep an eye on a little under 24 hours before the draft.  As drafts usually go the NFL draft is the most busy in terms of trading but the trades kind of slip by the rumor mills - so I fully expect the Lions to take Stafford and a battle royale to break out between 6 teams for Sanchez (who probably goes #2 to someone…)

The beauty of the NCAA football season is that it is so long that you can always find a game to bet on for about 6 months in a row.  Sadly, that’s also the worst thing about it.

When the season ends there really isn’t anything left to bet on, unless of course you like to bet on baseball or the NBA playoffs.

Here are some quick tips:

1)  When betting on baseball always bet against the Cubs.  100 years + of history can’t be wrong.  (In all seriousness the Cubs are going to do a TON of winning, the only problem is they will win the most 1 run games in history.  Take the runs and the underdog when playing the Cubs.)

2)  The Celtics don’t care about the Playoffs.  Ray Allen is too old to care, and Paul Pierce doesn’t have Kevin Garnett on the court to make him care about the game.  Their opening round series with the Bulls will end with the Bulls winning in 5 games (or at least winning ATS in 4 of 5 games).

3)  Wait a week or 2 then start to put money against the Marlins.  They are a scrappy young team, the problem with young teams like that is once they are expected to win they won’t.  So wait till the run lines start to respect the Marlins then jump on that one.

4)  The Mariners are going to be for real (in terms of betting).  They aren’t blowing anyone away, but are winning the games they shouldn’t ATS.

5)  Cleveland won’t lose a game in the first round.  You can rid them ATS into the 2nd round.

6)  The Lakers are good.  Very Good.  ATS they are not that good.  If you want, take the Lakers striaght up, but stay away from that line.

7)  Portland is a team to bet on.  Too young to really care about what is going on - I think they’ll win a bunch of games ATS.

8)  The Yankees?  No.

9)  San Antonio?  No.

10)  Take the Bulls in games 1 and 2 Money line.  They are going to win them both.

Rumors are flying around the internet this week that the Green Bay Packers worked out fomer Duke Point Guard (and bench warmer this season)  Greg Paulus.

Here’s the interesting part of the whole thing, Greg Paulus was actually an AMAZING high school football player.  He had offers from Notre Dame and the U to name a few.

Scout had him ranked ahead of Colt McCoy coming out of high school:  #9 QB in the land

Again, he’s an interesting prospect - if he had gone the football route he would probably just be a Junior and have a year to grow even more.  He’d be worth taking a flyer on (probably not in the draft) but as a camp invite.  He has an arm I’m sure, and basketball doesn’t take away from a quarterbacks football bulk.

I’d keep an eye on him, although I’m sure his decision making is in question:

Miami Cheerleaders:

Yeah...the Miami Cheerleaders are hot - bad choice Greg!

Duke Cheerleaders:

Not ugly at all, still good looking, but not Miami Hot...silly Greg

With Purdue having their best returning offensive player, and starting quarterback, dismissed from campus for 3 semesters for “Academic Violations” Purdue is a team to watch.  Why?  Well let’s take a look at the 2009 schedule:

2009-2010 SCHEDULE ( Click on an event for complete event information )

Date	Opponent / Event	Location	Time / Result
09/05/09	vs. Toledo	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
09/12/09	at Oregon	Eugene, Ore.	TBA
09/19/09	vs. Northern Illinois	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
09/26/09	vs. Notre Dame	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/03/09	vs. Northwestern	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/10/09	at Minnesota	Minneapolis, Minn.	TBA
10/17/09	vs. Ohio State	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/24/09	vs. Illinois	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/31/09	at Wisconsin	Madison, Wis.	TBA
11/07/09	at Michigan	Ann Arbor, Mich.	TBA
11/14/09	vs. Michigan State	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
11/21/09	at Indiana	Bloomington, Ind.	TBA

Why do I like this schedule, 2 reasons:  Toledo and Northern Illinois.  If you are Big 10 Purdue you are going to be the favorite vs. a Bad MAC team in Toledo and a strange MAC team in Northern Illinois.  What I like best about this is that Purdue will go 0-3 in their first 3 games and most likely will go 1-2 ATS (I think whatever the line is vs. Oregon they will end up covering.)

I’ve always liked betting MAC teams early in the season vs. BCS foes.  They most likely will not win the games but they will pound the spread (Look at NIU vs. Minnesota last season that I picked in week 1.)

Justin Siller being dismissed is terrible news for Purdue fans and that young man, but great news for the MAC squad.  The good news is that Purdue still has their cheerleaders!

Hey...Purdue has good looking cheerleaders!

Hey...Purdue has good looking cheerleaders!

Roc Hoover, aka Mark Schlereth, made a complete ass out of himself today on NFL live after the Jay Cutler trade was announced when he said, “The Bear’s just got worse today…”

I want to like Mark Schlereth, the Alaskan great, but I just can’t.  When you say something as stupid as that people are going to begin to question not only your football knowledge but also your sanity.

I understand that Mark Schlereth played 12 amazing NFL seasons, but just because you can play doesn’t mean you understand the game (see:  Chris Weber and Time Outs).  The big problem I have with Roc, and ESPN, is that they let him go on the air when he was clearly a very jaded Broncos fan.  He feels like Cutler let him down, and that’s understandable, but to go on national TV and proclaim that the Bears got worse is just stupid.

I think to put an exclamation point on his stupidity Roc decided to take it a step further and say the Bears were “Just barely ahead of Detroit now in the division…”  This is the same Detroit who was 0-16, and the same Bears who were 1 half away from the playoffs?  What?  Correct me if I’m wrong but the Bears MINUS Jay Cutler were better than the Packers last season.

I think ESPN needs to gain some control over their programming again, it’s nice to parade out these former NFL players, but when the class of the NFL players who can actually do some analyst work go to the NFL network ESPN is stuck picking from the trash heap, or “The Roc Pile”.

Let’s break this trade down logically:

The Bears Get

-  Jay Cutler

-2009 5th Round Draft Pick

The Broncos Get

- Kyle Orton

- 2009 1st and 3rd round draft picks

- 2010 1st round draft pick

Let’s break it down.  The Bears got the jewel of the trade in Jay Cutler.  A 25 year old, pro bowl quaterback.  The Broncos got serviceable 26 year old, and really not a bad dude, quarterback in Kyle Orton.  If you compare just the PLAYERS in this trade the Bears robbed the Broncos, thankfully it wasn’t a straight up swap.  The first round draft pick this year from the Bears is an interesting piece.  If the Bears had held on to this pick they would have been stuck in no-mans land in terms of their needs.  The Bears NEED some receiver help, and it just wasn’t there for them in the middle-late 1st round.  With that in mind the Bears would probably have had to draft an offensive tackle, who probably wouldn’t be as good as Orlando Pace…whom the Bears signed today.  So this pick to the Bears would have been tough to use, so it was in fact expendable.  The Broncos on the other hand can really use this pick, they need help on defense and, some are saying, at quarterback.  I just don’t see it that way, the Broncos have Kyle Orton, a guy who can run the type of offense that they want to run in Denver, he has the exact same skill set as Matt Cassel, except he has more starts under his belt.  With the first round picks Denver now has, they can really start to build that defense with whatever they want, Vonte Davis anyone?  With Davis opposite Bailey than can put to rest any concerns they are going to have in that secondary, at least for this season, at corner.  And don’t forget that the Broncos signed Brian Dawkins to fill a void in their secondary (he won’t last long, but could do the job for a season or 2 when the safety class gets much better in the draft.)

The third round pick this season is probably the one that confused ol’ Roc Hoover.  This third round pick is going to be a nice pick for Denver, it’s well within the top 85 - the unofficial cut off for high level talent that slipped, and they have a lot of positions they could draft that a player in this spot can come in and start at.  The Bears did indeed give this one away, BUT Roc, they have a compensatory pick at the end of the 3rd round that they received when they lost Bernard Berrian last season.  So the Bears do still have a 3rd round pick - I see this as a wash (when you compare it to gaining Cutler this isn’t anywhere near a loss, ROC!).  At then end of the 3rd round the Bears can still grab a receiver or, if they wanted, a strong side linebacker who could come in and push for minutes right away.

The 5th round pick the Bears received could be an important part of this trade.  With this 5th rounder the Bears could grab a young offensive linemen who isn’t goin to have to do anything his first 2 or 3 seasons in the league other than sit back and learn.  (You kind of see how this is going to take the place of the first round offensive linemen who was going to have to come in and start right away Roc?)

The first rounder the Broncos get in 2010 is going to be an interesting one to keep an eye on.  If, like I think, the Bears do make the playoffs this pick is going to land somewhere in the 20’s, maybe even late 20’s, and next years draft class isn’t exactly “loaded”.  The top of the draft looks good, you have guys like Bradford and McCoy who are going to be highly sought after, but after them things look a little bit thin (at least as you head to the 20’s.)  This pick is HUGE for the Broncos if, like I suspect, they fill in their defense quite a bit in 2009 they are going to be able to use this pick more for a “want” than a need. And that is a very nice position to be sitting in.  I’d like to point out that if they fight the urge to draft a qb early in 2009 they could have their choice of the top QBs in the 2010 draft (McCoy, Bradford.)  If they have a nice season in 2009 they don’t need to worry about a quarterback, BUT even if they did they could still package their 1st rounders in 2010 and get a top QB of their liking in the draft.

So let’s review shall we?

The Bears ARE better right now, than they were 24 hours ago.  The Broncos were able to get A TON of value for a PRO BOWL quarterback.  Both sides did well, and no one was robbed here ROC.  The Bears put themselves near, if not in, the front of the NFC North.  For my money the Bears still have a very talented defense - now all this defense is going to have to do is not allow over 24 points a game and Cutler should carry the Bears to victory.  I think the Broncos now have the ability to fill a bunch of the holes that they have on their team (provided they don’t waste the picks this year on a QB.)

A Win - Win early trade recap, and that’s a fair way to look at it.  To claim that any team lost this trade is almost as dumb as the name Roc Hoover.

The Chicago Bears had a very interesting team last season.  With a squad that seemed to have no skill players on the outside or any offensive line protection they still managed to be 1 half away from making the playoffs.  And in the wacky NFC north just about anyone can make the playoffs this season (in case you haven’t noticed, I’m not sold on the Vikes at all, but wait for their preview.)

Devin Hester developed into the Bears #1 receiver, the only problem, he didn’t put up #1 receiver numbers.  I think everyone in the NFL and the bears front office seems to feel like he will this season so that is going to give the Bears flexibilty in this draft.  They don’t have to grab a receiver round one if they aren’t in love with any of them.  

On the subject of flexibility the signing of Kevin Shaffer means the Bears don’t have to go round one OT either.  

However, the Bears should pick a receiver or tackle round one, not just for value, but for the simple fact that they need players at both of those spots.

Looking at my mock draft (which will be posted sometime soon) I have the Bears hoping to take Andre Smith or Michael Oher and smiling all the way home.  The roadblock the the Bears may find is that like last season there may be a rush on tackles and if there is the top 4 should go quickly and the Bears may be stuck picking between Eben Britton and a receiver.  If this is the case I believe the Bears will probably lean towards receiver if they can grab a guy like Maclin/Britt/and MAYBE Nicks, if not look for them to go Britton.

I don’t think Harvin is on the Bears radar, he’s a slower Devin Hester, if you already have the fast version what do you want the junior varsity version for?

I think something interesting to note is that if the bears pass on an OT in the first round to draft a receiver they may pass on an OT in round 2 to draft Guard Duke Robinson.  This would be a pick the Bears brass seems to be trying to keep secret, they want a guard.  They have an aging guard and a guard they want to move to center in the near future currently manning their interior spots (although free agent Omiyale will probably take one of those spots).  The reason for the pass is the bears seem to be in love with some smaller school tackles they can grab with one of their third round picks.

When Mike Vick aka “Ron Mexico” finally got out of prison one thing was on everyone’s mind…who wants him?

The usual suspects are going to be at the top of every list, the Dallas “We sign everyone so we can screw up a good team” Cowboys and the Oakland “We already signed enough guys to screw up a team that made the super bowl…now it’s just overkill” Raiders.  But I think there are a few other teams who will probably end up having some interest, the question will become one more about morals than need.

The List

Jacksonville Jaguars - They have a quarterback situation, of course people question if Vick could even play QB and figure he’d have to move to WR…well good news!  Jacksonville has neither a good QB or any receivers.

New Orleans - Mike Vick is from the south.  As much as we all hate to say this, the South isn’t as against dog fighting in some parts as the North is.  Couple that with the fact the Saints play in a dome where Mike Vick could be deadly, and not just to animals, lined up next to Reggie Bush in some sort of weird formation.

Seattle - They have nothing.  They need something.  Plain and simple.  A tough sell to the locals.

49ers - Again, what could be a perfect fit for Vick is going to be a tough sell to the locals.

Tampa Bay - An interesting fit.  Vick could play any one of a number of positions for them and they are located in the South where things will probably go better than the would in a Northern city.

Carolina - Another good fit.  He can do a lot of things for a team that doesn’t have a QB and has some old receivers.

Buffalo - If TO sticks around he would be a nice distraction for the media to take some heat off Vick.  Plus the fact the Buffalo media isn’t exactly as major as some other cities that he could go to.

List Where Mike Vick CANNOT Go

New York - The media would destroy him.  The crush would be too much for any one of the 2 New York City Teams.

Chicago - As a Bears fan this is hard for me to say, but he’s just another Devin Hester.  The media may not love him either, it would just be too hard a sell.

EAGLES - A media magnet on a team that has all the pieces almost every year…yeah they’ve done that before.

The fact is it’s going to be some time before Vick has to worry about what team he is going to have to ask to take him - but it’s always nice to start looking early.

Cowboys...yeah they'd be on my list if I was Vick

...And so are the Raiders

It appears as if the Lions have traded over paid DT Cory Redding to Seattle for Julian Peterson (a 5 time pro bowler).  The Lions also threw in a 5th round draft pick to help the trade happen.

Why is this trade important?  By aquiring Peterson to team with Sims and another LB (there is going to be a battle to see who this 3rd starter is) the Lions have pretty much said, “We aren’t going to draft Curry.”  Now why is this a big deal?  The Lions appear to be looking at OT and QB with the #1 overall pick and could probably trade down and still land a guy of their liking.  So if your team wants Curry you can now call the Lions and ask to trade up.

In my opinion, because of this trade, the Lions have shown their willingness not to draft the one guy that they were really sold on with the #1 overall pick.  A pretty strong indicator that they are willing to move the pick.

In fact with this trade the Detriot Lions have moved ahead of their Canadian counterpart in almost all facets of the game…except cheerleaders that is (because the Lions don’t have cheerleaders).

BC Lions Cheerleaders, the only thing that BC has better than Detriot now...thanks Matt Millen!