2011 Week 2 Picks

September 9th, 2011
by The_DMD

So it’s week 2! What happened to week 1? We had some technical issues, but if you heard me on air you know my picks were: “Houston, NIU, Purdue, IU, UNLV”

3 out of 5 isn’t bad, what is bad is that IU lost to BALL STATE. Really? Ball State? IU sucks…Plus I’ll pat myself on the back for taking Okie State last night (-14)

Fuck it. Let’s go with this week’s picks:
*************************************************************************
Iowa – 7
@
Iowa State +7

Here is what you need to know: There is a reason that if the Big 12 breaks down that Iowa State is the one school (maybe with Baylor) that is going to be stuck looking for love. It’s because they suck at football. To be fair Iowa State did win a tough game last week 20-19…against NORTHERN IOWA. And let me say this, Northern Iowa should have won that game. The issue came down to Northern Iowa lacking the firepower that, let’s say, an Iowa would provide. You simply cannot settle for field goals on the road when your D was playing like they were. That is what cost UNI this game.

The simple fact we are talking about what cost UNI the game against Iowa State has to lead you to belive that Iowa is going to smoke Iowa State.

The Pick: Iowa -7

Cincinnati +4.5
@
Tennessee -4.5

Here’s what I like about Cincinnati – they dropped 72 on Austin Peay. Here’s what I don’t like – Zach Collaros went 12 for 19 with 4TDs. I can promise you this, if he goes a robust 12 for 19 against Tennessee he won’t have 4 TDs to boast. I saw parts of this game and I can say without a doubt that Austin Peay was the WORST team that I saw play in week 1. Seriously – they were awful.

Here’s what I like about Tennessee – Tyler Bray 17 for 24 with 3 TDs against Montana. He is maturing before our eyes. Montana is a respected FCS team (unlike our friends at Austin Peay) and they do play “solid” football. As solid as an FCS team can play against a BCS school anyway.

This game is a classic Mid-West running team vs. SEC speed. SEC speed almost always wins. And they will in this one.

The Pick: Tennessee -4.5

California – 7
@
Colorado +7

Truth time, I think Colorado is awful. I also think they should have stayed in the Big 12 – the PAC 12 is going to make them the new Washington State. I also think Colorado made an AWFUL coaching hire (for some reason…hiring a TE coach as a head coach didn’t feel right) and they are trying to dig out from under some awful recruiting.

California is California. They will give you a glimpse of a great team, then they will show how bad a team with talent can really look. One can only hope they will build off a win against an always game Fresno team to blow out Colorado. Before I made this pick I have to admit that Maynard worries me at QB. He isn’t accurate, he seems to make rash decisions, and he just isn’t a “gifted” Cal QB that we are used to seeing. The system isn’t working for him and that is a cause for concern.

Here’s the thinking…Colorado sucks. They just do. Cal will make mistakes and they will manage to make this sure blowout a 10 point win.

The Pick: CAL – 7

Alabama – 10
@
Penn State +10

Penn State getting 10 points…at home! Never! Look I like McLovin, I really do. He’s a Big 10 type passer. He’ll get the ball where it needs to be and aviod the sack. The problem is that against Alabama this season he may not have a chance to avoid the sack. There is just too much talent against him, and Penn State, on the other side of the ball. Bolden won’t fare well in a game like this. He should stay on the bench. His wacky “Fuck it, I’m just going to wing the ball wherever” approach doesn’t work against teams with speed…or…average talent. Unfortunatly for him Alabama has speed and GREAT talent.

Alabama is also facing a QB situation. The difference here is that both their QBs are pretty good. Sure you can argue that the SEC never can produce a large number of good QBs in a given season, and I’ll agree with that, but these guys don’t have to be amazing. With the speed and talent around them they pretty much just have to be average (like the majority of SEC qbs are.)

The Pick: Bama – 10

Northern Illinois -6.5
@
Kansas +6.5

When is the last time a MAC team went on the road to a Big 12 team and was the favorite…by nearly a TD!?!? Well it’s happening here.

With all the hub-bub about conference movement there is even some internal Big 12 talk about giving NIU an invite if things start to seriously implode. The thinking is NIU can bring the Chicago market to a TV deal (with fox) that the Big 12 is going to be aggressively trying to save. The theory goes NIU is one team, with BYU, Memphis, and Houston + others depending on the losses. It has been talked about, but I doubt it’s very likely. At least they have had a conversation about it.

Which is why I like NIU. Seriously. If a bigger conference has honestly even mentioned your name it is because of 2 reasons – 1) You most likely are good at football and 2) You can bring them $$$ (in this case at the risk of accepting less money…if you think they would offer NIU, Memphis, or Houston a legit share of that contract you are crazy.) But back to point 1, NIU is good at football. They can score 40-50 a game this season (probably more…thank you EMU, Ball State, and a host of other MAC “defenses”)

Let’s look at Kansas. They suck. Enough Said…OK I’m kidding. Well not about the suck part, just about the enough said part. They let a very game McNeese State team score 24 points. McNeese State even left some points on the field – that isn’t a good thing for Kansas. Kansas is going to be without Jacorey Shepard (their top WR.) It’s going to be a long day for Kansas.

High scoring game with Northern Illinois taking this one by 17.

The Pick: Northern Illinois -6.5

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If I Were A Betting Man: 2011 NFL Draft Edition

April 28th, 2011
by The_DMD

With all the jibber jabber being passed out by teams here are some things I’m pretty sure will happen in today’s 1st round of the NFL draft:


1) John Elway is going to have 2 first round picks. With the 2nd pick overall he is going to draft Von Miller – then he is going to trade back into the late first round (look patriots) and draft Marvin Austin. Fixes that little D line problem he has, and it won’t cost too much with the #2 pick in the 2nd round being near equal value. Why trade with the pats? The Patriots probably want Martez Wilson – no one else seems to need him in the first round between then and the #2 pick in the second – AND the Bears probably want Austin so Elway has to jump them.

2) It’s going to be near impossible to trade out of the top 10. Ask yourself who is worth trading up for? Then ask yourself if there is the exact same type player out there available 10 picks later. The answer is yes.

3) I don’t think any team wants to draft Ingram in the first round. Who is the team who needs to draft a RB like that in the first? Backs are going to be available like crazy come Free Agency so it’s really dumb to draft one in the first. So yes, I’m saying the Dolphins are going to draft him (ZING!)



4) Picks 21-32 are going to be passed around like Jimmy Clausen pass – you don’t know what team is going to end up with it.



5) Draft Prop Bets are Stupid. Betting that the Bills or Bengals won’t make some crazy reach is a bad bet in my book, and thus they can screw up every prop!



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2011 NCAA season National Champion Prop Bet Strategy

April 25th, 2011
by The_DMD
Here is a quick strategy you can use to bet the National Champion Prop.
Pick 5 conference champions from the 5 power conferences (no Big East) – then bet them each equally.  (Do NOT use this strategy and bet Oklahoma.  That’s just dumb.)
My Picks:
Oregon
LSU
Florida State
Texas
Nebraska
It’s a fun way to bet the prop, and lower your risk a bit!

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2011 NCAA National Champion Futures Bet (Bodog)

April 23rd, 2011
by The_DMD

Bogdog has released their wayyyyyyyyyyyyy to early futures lines to pick the national champion:

 

Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Arizona
Arizona State
Boise State
Boston College
BYU
California
Cincinnati
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Kansas State
LSU
Miami
Michigan
Michigan State
Missouri
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Nebraska
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Oregon State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
South Carolina
South Florida
Stanford
TCU
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
Utah
Virginia Tech
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Field

 

 

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Sports Betting Strategy: Do you power rank?

April 8th, 2011
by The_DMD

There are as many schools of thought on how to bet sports as there are types of religion, but a prominent one that always pops up this time of year is the “power ranking” system.  There are a million different names for it, but it goes something like this:

-  Rank all of the teams in the sport you are betting from the best to the worst.

-  Repeat this ranking for both HOME and AWAY situations

-  Place bets based on the power rankings.*

*  Most of the time this implies betting along the money line  - however if your power rankings imply a different line that what is offered you bet that line.

With NCAA football this can be a bit of a tricky system – but you can do it.

Here is the theory I use if I NCAA Football power rank.

Only BET D1 schools.  A rookie should ONLY RATE BCS conferences.  If you have never done a power ranking before don’t be an idiot and rank every single team out there, it won’t help.  Take it by conference – and I don’t need to say this but I will, ONLY BET CONFERENCE GAMES.

If you are in-depth, and serious about this for college football here are the steps for a full on power betting board:

1)  First take it conference by conference and rank each team HOME and AWAY.  (This will be 2 charts per conference for a total of 12…remember the indies should be ranked too)

Hopefully while doing step one you are learning a lot about each team and each roster.  You should start this process in July, it’s going to take awhile and you need to learn about each team.

How do you rank them in conference?  First look at last years standings, and Home/Away W/L.  Then look at additions/subtracts and decide based on that if you think the team is a + (going up in the conference standings vs last year), a <> (which means they are staying the same), or a – (on a downward march.)  Now reshape your overall standings based on this.  Once you have the overall standings break it down and see how each team did last year at home and on the road, and how you project them to do this year based on our +, -, or <> system.  Then bamo, you did it!  You have one conference done.

2)  Once you finish with the conferences it’s time to take what you learned and apply it to D1 as a whole.

Take your conference bias and throw it away here.  I know, you might be a huge big 10 fan, but don’t let that hurt your gambling pot.  I really want to stress to the BCS conference fans out there that the biggest mistake they make is loving the BCS schools a little too much and hating on the non-BCS a little too hard.  I finished up my early rankings this month and I have 3 non-BCS schools in the top 10. (BSU, NIU, TCU)  Just be honest with what you have seen on the field, not how much you wish the Big 10 or PAC 12 teams will finish up.

Rank EVERY TEAM.  Use excel or something like that so you can have a column where you keep track of conference and rank, like MAC (1), or BIG 10 (12).  That is a great visual tool to use.  Read it outloud, it usually helps:

“The MAC’s best team on the road is better than the Big 10 12th best team on the road.”

If it makes sense to you, it is a good ranking.

Now remember you have to have 2 charts a HOME and AWAY.  (RANKINGS SHOULD AND WILL BE DIFFERENT!!!!)

3)  Take your charts and look at all of the week one match ups and bet accordingly.

Here is how this works:

-  Look at the home team’s rank, let’s pretend you have Kansas at 54, now compare to the road teams rank, let’s pretend it’s NIU at 19, based on the chart you take NIU on the money line.

***NOTE:  A common mistake is betting every game and just taking the higher power ranked team, that’s fine if you think your chart is 100% right.  Be smart, take a margin of error.  In baseball I make my bets only if there are 4 teams in between the ranked bets.  (Or 5 ranking spots total)  This is smart because it saves you from locking in a battle between two top 5 teams like it’s fact.  In football I use a 10 spot margin (or 9 teams)   There are a lot of games going each week so you’ll get a ton of action based on your chart.

The last thing I’d like to point out about this system is the NEED to be well versed in each team you have ranked.  Don’t be an idiot and only study some teams but rank them all.  If you don’t want to make the effort why don’t you just focus on one or 2 conferences and only bet them in conference season (using 0 margin of error) – it will save you from a ton of bad bets.

In this system every weekend you are going to to get a lot of games to bet, the theory is if you bet them all along with your power rankings you should win $ on the weekend.  The true system guys bet every single game that fits the criteria, 10 spots.  It may be a lot of games, but at the end of the day if your chart is good you will have a ton of money.

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Mountain West: We got room for 2 more

December 23rd, 2010
by The_DMD

Truth time for the Mountain West, you need to find 2 more schools to fill your conference.  You need a title game.  Your network Mtn NEEDS to broadcast that title game and justify your TV $$$.

That’s the reality of the situation, the Mountain West is kind of sitting as a 10 team league that just looks funny.  There’s a TON of talent in that league and it’s a crime if they sit at 10 or 11 for 2012 and don’t have a title game.  The MAC has a title game for goodness sake!  The least the MWAC can do is have a title game for the fans, TV, and even a potential BCS big.

In 2012 the MWAC will look like this:

Air Force
Boise State
Colorado State
Fresno State
New Mexico
Nevada
SDSU
UNLV
Hawaii
Wyoming

Mountain West...this is your life

Let’s have a look shall we?

The conference seems to have a pretty natural E/W split (Hawai’i isn’t pictured…cause it’s way the hell out there) so where do they go?  The easy and logical answer would be East.

You already have a Western Division built:

Hawai’i

Boise State

Nevada

UNLV

Fresno State

SDSU

Works for me.  And it should work for the Mountain West.  So who do you add to the East?

Let’s take a look at the conferences that the Mountain West can raid (no one wants them to grab a FCS team, there would be no point) Sun Belt, MAC, and CUSA.

Sun Belt Candidates:

Troy

Benefits:  A relatively decent football program in the Sun Belt.  A growing fan base.  And…well…I got nothing.  I mean they are kind of near Texas?  The Mountain West was in Texas before…but that’s a real stretch for saying it’s a “benefit.”

Drawbacks:  It’s Troy, they aren’t really a known name, they’re the 4th best team…in ALABAMA!  I don’t know that there is room for the MTN in Alabama.  It’s SEC country, and if you don’t care for the SEC you’re watching UAB.  It’s hard to bring Mountain West teams to Troy and ask fans to care.

Chances:  1%

And…well, no just Troy.  The Sun Belt doesn’t have a ton to offer.

The MAC Candidates:

Northern Illinois University

Benefits:  A dedication to the athletic department with the creation of a new athletics building and plans to build an indoor practice facility.  Arguably the best team in Illinois (Northwestern and Illinois are your other options…)  Near the media giant that is Chicago, the city that launched the Big 10 Network.  If the MTN can use NIU being in the conference to put their network into Chicago area homes that’s a big win.  Plus Northern Illinois is familiar with some Mountain West schools having been in the ‘Big West’ in 1994.  With playing Hawaii every few years NIU can add an extra 13th game to help pay for the travel costs (although they do get around $150,000 every time they play Hawaii to help pay for it already) and that 13th game can be their semi-annual game vs. a Big 10 team at Solider field which will net about a million for the school.

Drawbacks:  Let me quote this Chicago Tribune article:  “Northern also holds what it believes to be the ultimate trump-a chance for the Big Eight to break into the Chicago market. De Kalb is only 25 miles from Aurora, and the way the area is growing, it could become a suburb of Chicago soon.”  Replace the “Big Eight” with Mountain West and we’re in the same predicament.  The good news is that the Aurora area is much larger than it was in 1994.  Another problem facing the addition of Northern Illinois is that you will not get them for all sports.  You would have to ask the Horizon league to host Northern Illinois for all other sports.  This Northern Illinois program is better than it was in 1994, but history shouldn’t be ignored.  The ‘Big West’ didn’t exactly move to the next level with NIU and “Chicago.”

Chances:  69% (I actually like the move for the Mountain West, I like taking the risk of getting the MTN in Chicago.  If you can get Boise, Fresno, or Nevada to DeKalb every few years you can give the MTN a presence.  Especially if you have a BCS ranked squad coming to the Chicago area.)

Honestly…the MAC is as bad as the Sun Belt in terms of teams who would fit in the Mountain West.  You have NIU, and…no one.  NIU is near the only major media market to get the MTN on…unless you want to count Detroit…or the shell of Detroit and Toledo.  I don’t.

Conference USA Candidates:

Houston

Benefits:  You want Houston, you need Houston, but can you have Houston?  Of course.  This is the biggest no brainer of the whole operation.  Some will argue that Houston won’t go Mountain West without one of their Texas buddies, but I don’t believe that is the case (they will look at how TCU did it.)  If you’re the Mountain West you want to add Houston, they have a major media market for the MTN, and they’re good at football.  Think about it, a winner in Houston playing teams that could be BCS ranked, or be BCS ranked themselves?  It’s a WIN-WIN

Drawbacks:  The afore mentioned fear that if you bring Houston you’re going to have to bring a Texas school you don’t want.  TCU couldn’t get you in Dallas, could SMU?  And for that matter can Houston penetrate the Houston market?  If you don’t get the MTN in Dallas/Ft. Worth with TCU who was killing everyone can you honestly get a Houston team to do more in a different Texas market?

Chances:  69% (Tied for my top addition with NIU.  The only reason it’s not 99% is because I’m worried the Mountain West is tired of messing with Texas.  For all TCU did they were a big headache.)

SMU

Benefits:  SMU actually really wants this, they do.  They want people to care about their football program again, since the “death penalty” it’s hard to do.  But they have a big name coach, deep pocket alumni, and reside in a football crazy state.  Can you honestly ask for more?  Probably.  Well how about a team that could in theory get you in the Dallas market?

Drawbacks:  Can SMU get you in the Dallas market?  It’s possible, the Dallas media helped sink that program, can they help bring it back?  I don’t think they can, with the Cowboys playing solid football I’m not sure Dallas has room for caring about a SMU program that has to compete with the Big East’s TCU (That people don’t really care about either.)

Chances:  20% (Better than Troy, and this number goes way up if Houston insists on having another Texas program come with them.  SMU is the best bet to come with Houston, Rice isn’t going to make the cut.)

Southern Miss

Benefits:  A strong football program.  A strong fan base.

Drawbacks:  Lacks the major market that the MTN craves.  They need to save the MTN and get it to start making some serious money, is Hattiesburg going to do the job?

Chances:  25% (Again, a good fit with Houston.  Not sure Houston is going to beg to have Southern Miss included.)

Tulsa

Benefits:  Tulsa is a nice media market.  The school has some money too, never a bad thing.  They are a nice fit on the map too, and that’s something you can’t ignore.

Drawbacks:  Can this private school pull their weight enough to make it a worthwhile school to bring in?  With just under 4,200 students you have to ask yourself if this is going to be the right type of fit for the Mountain West.  They aren’t trying to increase their academics, they are trying to solidify the conference by being the best football conference they can be.

Chances:  10% (Probably higher if the Mountain West wants Northern Illinois, and wants to throw them a bone in the geography of it all, but not if Northern Illinois is only joining as a Football member.)

Conclusion:

The Mountain West is going to have to expand, the question is going to be which schools are they going to bring in?  If money isn’t an issue they would bring in Houston and Northern Illinois.  You’d have Houston and Chicago media markets, or at least an opportunity to be in them.  The fact of the matter is money is an issue.  Can Northern Illinois justify joining the Mountain West?  I guess they could if the theory is if you bring in better teams to play, you will also bring in more fans.  And that rule normally works.  Would your fans rather watch Eastern Michigan or Boise State as an opponent?  Will Houston insist on another Texas team?  UTEP could be in play if the answer is yes.  There are a lot of studies that are going to be done between now and the spring of 2011 that will answer a lot of the money questions.  And the bottom line is the two teams that will add the most to the pockets of the conference are going to get an invite.

My guess:  The Mountain West invites Northern Illinois and Houston first, Northern Illinois will have to decide if they can afford this move.  And it’s a very real possibility that they cannot.  The teams that will join the Mountain West are going to be Houston and SMU.


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Jerry Kill, Welcome To Minnesota…now leave!

December 7th, 2010
by The_DMD

It sure seems like Minnesota fans aren’t exactly in love with their new coach Jerry Kill.

Enjoy:

FireJerryKill.com

And is it just me or does Jerry Kill look kinda like Les Grossman?

Jerry Kill is...Les Grossman?

Jerry Kill is...Les Grossman?

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Week 3: The Picks

September 17th, 2010
by The_DMD

So last week was a winning week, (3-2) and so far we’re up money on the season – let’s not look back eh?

Previous Week:  3- 2

Starting Bank:  $980

Current Bank:  $1053  (+$53 on the season)

Game 1

California – 3

@

Nevada

This one is very simple, I think Nevada is a good team – I just don’t think they can beat the PAC 10′s CAL.  I’d like to think that the 3 point spread is only because Nevada can score like 100 points a game, the only problem?  Their D will give up like 110 a game.

It wasn’t a great week for the Colorado’s last week.  Cal beat Colorado by the score of 52-7, and Nevada beat Colorado State by the score of 51-6.  Seriously.  The exact same margin of victory.  So what does all of this mean?  Nothing, the state of Colorado just sucks and I wanted to throw that out there.

Take Cal.

Game 2

Northern Illinois +7

@

Illinois

Read my last post about this one – nothing has changed.  Seriously, the line hasn’t even moved.  I like NIU in this game, because someone, somewhere likes NIU in this game.  I guess you can point to a red-shirt freshman QB for U of I who can mess things up in a heartbeat.  You can point to the fact that NIU is the first real good running team U of I is going to play.  You can point to the fact that the only bad game NIU had in the young season was partially due to the fact they started their 3rd string QB just to make sure everyone got a chance to play this year.

But what do I point to for the reason NIU is going to cover?  Shenanigans.

I know this goes against my failed “bet against the MAC” strategy…but it’s “failed” for a reason.  Take NIU.

Game 3

UCONN -6

@

Temple

Ok here’s the deal, Temple is 2-0.  Beating a Central Michigan team who probably won’t be a factor in the MAC this year, and BARELY beating a Villanova team who plays most of their football in the FCS.  UCONN is 1-1, spanking Texas Southern and losing to a very much improved Michigan program.

The real deal is that Temple is not playing nearly as well as some would have thought they would this year.  Maybe they need a real opponent in UCONN to wake them up, maybe not.  UCONN is always game and will put a hurting on you if you want to sleepwalk through another game.

Owls come out at night, and this is an 12PM start.  Needless to say too early for the Owls to be awake.

Take UCONN

Game 4

Ball State +17

@

Purdue -17

Fun Fact:  Ball State lost by 4 points to Liberty last week. 

I think Purdue is at least 2 TDs better than Liberty.  So using that math…

Take Purdue

Game 5

Ohio + 30

@

Ohio State -30

This is kind of a weird game for me to pick Ohio.  First of all I have the failed strategy of “bet against the MAC” still fresh in my mind, and I have Ohio’s loss to a fairly crappy Toledo team also in my mind.  The only thing that I can say I like about Ohio is coach Frank Solich.

Ohio State just put the smack down on Miami, they are due a let down.  Seriously.  Not a let down in the sense that Ohio is going to win the game, but a let down in the sense that they aren’t going to win by 4 TDs, let alone 30 points.

I like Ohio State, but something in this game just screams “OHIO WILL COVER!”

Take Ohio.

Check back next week for a recap and more picks!

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Week 3: Some Shenanigans?

September 13th, 2010
by The_DMD

Previous Week:  3- 2

Starting Bank:  $980

Current Bank:  $1053  (+$53 on the season)

Recap:  Not a bad little week.  I was one play away from going 4-1, but what can you do?  Nothing but sit here and look at next week’s early lines to get an idea of what to bet, and I think I found something…fishy.

Shenanigans:  a devious trick used especially for an underhand purpose

Looking through the early lines posted for this week’s games I found something fishy, well a few things fishy about the following line:

Northern Illinois + 7

@

Illinois – 7

A MAC team, with a road loss to ISU (27-10) and a “win” vs. a very bad North Dakota team?  I’m going to call it…Shenanigans!

So I had to start digging deeper, why in the world would the folks who set the line set one this close?  Because they aren’t idiots, and neither are quite a few bettors.

Northern Illinois has been doing things a little bit goofy to start the season, De’Marcus “I Can’t Throw So Don’t Bother Having Less than 8 In the Box” Grady was the QB for the entire ISU game.  It’s not this young man’s fault he isn’t a passer, in fact he’s runner, an amazing runner.  The theory clearly being…well…I have no idea what the theory was.  Northern Illnois BENCHED their starting QB for the past 2 seasons in favor of DeMarcus Grady, the man he beat out those previous 2 seasons because Grady could not pass.  As it turns out Grady still couldn’t pass.

In the second game vs. North Dakota, Northern Illnois was ready to blow the doors off with an early 16-0 lead.  Late in the 2nd Quarter NIU was driving for an even bigger lead when the unthinkable happened, former starter, turned current starter, Chandler Harnish, threw a pick-6.  It was almost like he was rusty…you know that happens when you sit ALL of spring ball, and most of summer camp, with an “injured” knee.  Although by all accounts his knee was OK.  In the end Northern won and Harnish had over 300 total yards.

So things are staring to take shape aren’t they?  Northern Illnois had a theory, play Grady the first game against ISU, maybe he’ll win?  It’s better than putting a rusty Harnish out there.  Worst case?  Grady loses an out of conference game, on the road, to a Big 12 team.  If/when that happens you now have cause to throw Harnish back in there, rust and all, vs. a VERY bad North Dakota team.  And that’s what they did.  He showed signs of rust missing receivers and throwing that Pick – 6, but he also managed a pretty good game for a win.

Hmmmmmmm…that makes some sense.

But look deeper.  Northern Illinois ran like 7 plays…TOTAL…vs North Dakota!  Now why in the world would they do that?  Because Southern Illinois was playing Illinois that night.  The former head coach of Southern?  Jerry Kill.  The current head coach of Northern?  Jerry Kill (although he’s hospitalized and everyone is wishing him a quick recovery).  The offenses they ran are damn near the exact same…except, Northern Changed.

Northern wanted to try to hide the fact that they have changed the offense a little bit.  They weren’t keeping it vanilla for “new-old” starter Harnish, they were doing it so Illinois doesn’t have the film on it.  And if you can win the game by giving the ball to Chad Spann 100 times, why not do it?  The problem was that it wasn’t quite the blow out Northern had hoped it would be, so things got sticky with a vainilla offense and a terrible pair of kickers.  But they survived, that’s all NIU wanted.

If you think for one second that Northern Illinois doesn’t want to beat U of I more than anything in the world, you’re wrong.  Sure NIU has won more FBS games than any FBS team in the state over the past 10 years, but what does that matter?  The players were over-looked by their FBS brother in the south, the University of Illinois.

Now look at the big brother, Illinois.  What do they have going for them?  A young quarterback, a ton of injuries, and a win over Southern Illinois. 

Heck the best news for the season was that they weren’t blown out by Missouri.  The same Missiouri that had to replace about a million starters, and super star running back Washington.

But look deeper here.

The University of Illinois won those games because they beat 2 teams that flat out couldn’t run because of suspensions or just a flat out lack of talent.  Southern Illinois is FCS by the way.  Missouri rushed for 98 yards (and had 80 yards in penalties) while Southern Illinois ran for 46 yards (with 38 in penalties) it makes you wonder what would happen if Illinois played a running team?  Also something to note Gabbert (Mizzou) and Dieker (SIU) are both about 6’5 230.  That makes it a bit easier to pressure them doesn’t it?

Ohhhhhh…that’s what we have going on?

So what’s with the line?  Why is it so close?  Because Northern Illinois has been planning, and building, towards this game for the past 10 months, ever since they lost their bowl game to South Florida.

Don’t be fooled by this one.  The lines makers weren’t, and they’re hoping you are.  Bet smart.

****CHECK BACK FOR MY PICKS ON THURSDAY!

Posted in Week 3 | Comments (0)

Week 2 Picks

September 10th, 2010
by The_DMD

What did we learn last week?  We learned that even if we pick 5 games we can still have a tie, I went 2-2 … with a tie/push for Purdue/ND.

We also learned that the MAC is a bad football conference, if it’s not idiot coaches (NIU) it’s bad players (Akron) – the key is to bet against these teams when you can.

Hawaii + 3

@

Army

Look I know it’s a hell of a trip for Hawaii, but Army didn’t exactly blow me away last week vs EMU (A MAC team…you’re going to notice a theme here.)  Take Hawaii based on the MAC sucks at football rule.

 

Idaho + 28

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Nebraska

Nathan Enderle is a legit QB.  Nebraska is replacing a lot of talent in it’s secondary.  It’s not a tough thing to figure out.  28 Points is just TOO much.  Take Idaho.

 

Kent State + 17
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Boston College -17

The MAC is a bad football conference.  It’s just a fact.  If it’s not coaching it’s talent.  You decide which it is that makes Kent State bad.

 

Bowling Green +17

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Tulsa -17

Let me say this, if it was week 1 I would have taken Bowling Green, but after seeing some MAC action this past weekend…that would just be dumb.  Take Tulsa, they are explosive – the MAC just doesn’t have that kind of O with any of their teams any more.

 

Buffalo +16.5

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Baylor – 16.5

Let’s review what this week’s theme is “The MAC sucks until they prove otherwise.”  When the top 2 MAC teams (Temple, NIU) look as bad as you can look in games it’s time to take your money and put it on the other side of the line.  To be fair to Buffalo it isn’t their fault that they are being lumped in with the other MAC teams.  The did beat Rhoad Island…who plays football…who knew?

 

Let’s try not to get a tie this week!!! 

Starting Week Bank: $980

Original Starting $:  1000

Posted in 2010 Season | Comments (0)