Bow Tie Betting Football

Here are some quick notes that may affect your betting…but probably shouldn’t:

Coach speak is going full sail ahead with Coach Kill (He thinks his schedule is tough…if playing 3 of the worst BCS teams is too tough for you maybe you should look towards the FCS.)

Jerry Kill refuses to name a QB.  We think he thinks he knows who he’s going to call, but do we?

Coach Rhoads thinks his D only needs to improves on “Rush yardage, pass yardage, total yardage…”  Seems easy enough.

Iowa State plans to play 3 true freshman on Thursday.  This means either they’re in trouble, winning a blowout, or…just love to blow redshirts.

Safety Mike O’Connell feels…well…he doesn’t know how to feel about his defense.  And frankly none of us do either.

Jerry Kill thinks Coach Rhoads knows football…which…I guess is news that a D1 coach knows football?

Here are some early lines for Week 1 you should make note of, maybe even take some action on now if you can:

Purdue +11

@

Notre Dame

Why:  The Notre Dame hype machine is running full steam ahead.  With the Chicago Tribune putting the big push behind coach Kelly how can you not bet on Notre Dame?  Simple – Coach Kelly was always lucky enough to take over a program with talent then cash in on his success.  The problem?  This time Notre Dame isn’t a CMU or Cincy, a program that is more talented than it’s peers, rather it’s a program that would be considered a middle of the road Big 10 team if they were in the conference.  The good news for Purdue is that I would consider them ALSO a middle of the road Big 10 team – that is unless of course Marve lives up to the hype, then they’re a higher tier of Big 10 squad.

The point here is this, ND is always hyped up, Purdue isn’t getting the type of respect early that they most likely deserve.  Will Purdue win?  Eh…probably,  but they will damn sure keep it within 11.

Minnesota + 4.5

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MTSU

Why:  Look, I think MTSU is a good squad – and I like them at home, my only problem is that they are a good Sun Belt team.  The problem with that is that the Sun Belt kinda sucks.  They had a HUGE win last year vs. Maryland.  That’s right they beat a 2-10 program by a point and it was a massive win.  Minnesota isn’t Maryland bad.  I mean Minnesota is BAD, just not that bad.

Minnesota will win this game, they won’t win by a blow out but they’ll win.  Early in the season on the road with a senior QB, I just don’t see Minnesota in any sort of trouble.  Take this bet, and take it quick before the line flips the other way.

Northern Illinois + 3

@

Iowa State

Why:  Let me start by saying that ISU has a better team than they have had in years past.  Let me also say that Northern Illinois has probably the most talented team in the MAC (yes Temple, I see you and I still think Northern has more talent across the board) and the most talented team they’ve had in years.  The thing that is going to make you think about this bet are the intangibles.

Northen Illinois is having a wide open QB competition.  Normally when you have a QB returning after 2 years of starting you’d think he’d have the job, nope.  Chandler Harnish, former starter, is now most likely backing up DeMarcus Grady.  The reason this should make you say “ah hah!” is because DeMarcus Grady is a runner.  Chandler Harnish isn’t as mobile (after injuries).  So what do we take from this?  NIU is trying to be more explosive.  Neither QB is going to light the world on fire with their passing, but Grady could keep defenses honest with his deep ball arm.  With a ton of different options to run the ball down your throat NIU will keep the game close and milk the clock.

Iowa State, talk about a team snake bitten before they even had a chance.  If they aren’t suspending a captain they are fighting back a flood that threatened most of campus.  I will say I like Arnaud and Robinson a lot.  But with Arnuad’s uncanny ability to turn the ball over it makes me nervous to ever think of them as a “favorite”.  If you turn the ball over, and give up points ATS, I’m not going to bet on you.  Suspending David Sims is probably not going to help.  I look at ISU as a questionable D with an explosive offense.  An explosive offense that often blows up in their own faces. 

So why bet on Northern?  Look at NIU this year vs Kansas State last year.  Kansas State beat Iowa State by running the ball and having some nice passes hit the mark from Grant Gregory.  That’s how I see the NIU vs ISU game playing out this year.  Close, with some timely passing by NIU.

As a quick sidenote, NIU probably has the best shot of going unbeaten among all the smaller conferences lightweights (TCU, BOISE don’t count.)

Not being football season there isn’t a whole ton to write about, but I want to throw my 2 cents into the bucket here on this whole “taser” debate.

Nothing bugs me more than some idiot who runs onto the field during a baseball game.  It’s like, “Hey Jackass – baseball games are long enough without you fucking around out there.”

And living in Chicago has given me a unique perspective on these whole “fan interference” things in baseball.  But let’s start with a few nights ago in Philly, this jackass decided to run on the field:

A few things to point out, the kid on the video is 17 – and a douche.

You may ask, “Why did the cops tase him, what is a 17 year old douche going to do on the baseball diamond?”

Living in Chicago I remember this little event taking place that involved a 17 year old Douche…and his father (also a huge douche):

Fast forward to 1:07.

Douche - White Sox Fan, who scares willie harris

And there is the perfect example of what happens when you let a douche run on the field thinking it’s all “in good fun.”  Sure the argument could be made that Willie Harris is a pussy and didn’t do anything to help out that first base coach, but you don’t need to argue that fact.  Willie Harris IS a pussy.

The point here is that if you run on the field you have to be stopped, no one knows what you are doing…especially if you are a 17 year old douche.

One last word, or video, of advice – if you run on the field you deserve to get your ass kicked.  Look at what happens to fans who mess with Hockey or Football players.  I’d say this kid got off easy.

The beauty of the NCAA football season is that it is so long that you can always find a game to bet on for about 6 months in a row.  Sadly, that’s also the worst thing about it.

When the season ends there really isn’t anything left to bet on, unless of course you like to bet on baseball or the NBA playoffs.

Here are some quick tips:

1)  When betting on baseball always bet against the Cubs.  100 years + of history can’t be wrong.  (In all seriousness the Cubs are going to do a TON of winning, the only problem is they will win the most 1 run games in history.  Take the runs and the underdog when playing the Cubs.)

2)  The Celtics don’t care about the Playoffs.  Ray Allen is too old to care, and Paul Pierce doesn’t have Kevin Garnett on the court to make him care about the game.  Their opening round series with the Bulls will end with the Bulls winning in 5 games (or at least winning ATS in 4 of 5 games).

3)  Wait a week or 2 then start to put money against the Marlins.  They are a scrappy young team, the problem with young teams like that is once they are expected to win they won’t.  So wait till the run lines start to respect the Marlins then jump on that one.

4)  The Mariners are going to be for real (in terms of betting).  They aren’t blowing anyone away, but are winning the games they shouldn’t ATS.

5)  Cleveland won’t lose a game in the first round.  You can rid them ATS into the 2nd round.

6)  The Lakers are good.  Very Good.  ATS they are not that good.  If you want, take the Lakers striaght up, but stay away from that line.

7)  Portland is a team to bet on.  Too young to really care about what is going on – I think they’ll win a bunch of games ATS.

8)  The Yankees?  No.

9)  San Antonio?  No.

10)  Take the Bulls in games 1 and 2 Money line.  They are going to win them both.

The Chicago Bears had a very interesting team last season.  With a squad that seemed to have no skill players on the outside or any offensive line protection they still managed to be 1 half away from making the playoffs.  And in the wacky NFC north just about anyone can make the playoffs this season (in case you haven’t noticed, I’m not sold on the Vikes at all, but wait for their preview.)

Devin Hester developed into the Bears #1 receiver, the only problem, he didn’t put up #1 receiver numbers.  I think everyone in the NFL and the bears front office seems to feel like he will this season so that is going to give the Bears flexibilty in this draft.  They don’t have to grab a receiver round one if they aren’t in love with any of them.  

On the subject of flexibility the signing of Kevin Shaffer means the Bears don’t have to go round one OT either.  

However, the Bears should pick a receiver or tackle round one, not just for value, but for the simple fact that they need players at both of those spots.

Looking at my mock draft (which will be posted sometime soon) I have the Bears hoping to take Andre Smith or Michael Oher and smiling all the way home.  The roadblock the the Bears may find is that like last season there may be a rush on tackles and if there is the top 4 should go quickly and the Bears may be stuck picking between Eben Britton and a receiver.  If this is the case I believe the Bears will probably lean towards receiver if they can grab a guy like Maclin/Britt/and MAYBE Nicks, if not look for them to go Britton.

I don’t think Harvin is on the Bears radar, he’s a slower Devin Hester, if you already have the fast version what do you want the junior varsity version for?

I think something interesting to note is that if the bears pass on an OT in the first round to draft a receiver they may pass on an OT in round 2 to draft Guard Duke Robinson.  This would be a pick the Bears brass seems to be trying to keep secret, they want a guard.  They have an aging guard and a guard they want to move to center in the near future currently manning their interior spots (although free agent Omiyale will probably take one of those spots).  The reason for the pass is the bears seem to be in love with some smaller school tackles they can grab with one of their third round picks.

Before I post my first mock draft this week I’d like to do something nice for the fans of Detroit.  I’m going to take your last place, we can’t win a game, team and turn them into a winner with a few moves before and during the NFL draft.

The first thing the Lions need to do is move from their spot at #1, I don’t think anyone in the NFL is really 100% sold on Matthew Stafford being the next great QB let alone a guy who can crack the starting lineup and perform.  Paying a quarterback #1 draft pick money is next to crazy – what I would love to see them do is strike up some sort of conversation with Denver, which they were rumored to be doing anyway, and see if they could get the #12 pick and Cutler for the #1 overall and maybe a very late rounder (or just straight up).

The next move the lions need to make is to take the St. Louis Rams up on their broadcasted offer of Holt + Pace for a mid rounder.  Why do this?  You can pair a vet receiver with young mr. Johnson and get a guy to finish out his career at RT.  I’m not saying I don’t like the Backus or Cherilus/Foster combo – but I am saying that adding those 2 guys will help out your offense more than a little.  Orlando Pace is old, but at 33 he’s probably still better than anyone else you have.

I know it’s rebuilding time, but in the NFC North you are always 1 season away from being champion.

So now you have Cutler, the #12 pick, Orlando Pace, and Tory Holt – what’s the next move?

You have the #12 pick it’s time to make it work for you.  Most likely you will have a choice at that spot of any corner you want, most likely Jenkins didn’t do himself any favors with a sub par combine so you could pick from him or Vonte Davis.  I’d suggest drafting Davis with the #12 pick.

Guess what, you still have the #20 pick!  This pick is going to be tricky, you can do 1 of 2 things with it, grab the best guy out there or fill a need – good news, you’re the lions you’ll probably end up doing both no matter what happens.  Again, a spot you would look to trade down if you could – but if by some miracle a guy like Knowshon Moreno and STILL have traded down you deserve a pat on the back.  But at this point I don’t like to look a gift horse in the mouth, you take Moreno if he is there OR you grab a defensive player that you like.  Personally I’m a fan of a guy like Ayers/English/Jerry/Mabin at this point in the round, but again it’s probably a reach.  The goal would be to trade down a few spots and settle on whatever defensive guy you can grab if you can’t get mr. Moreno.

Second round time – I would say it’s time for another move.  With the first pick in the second round someone is bound to slip and that’s when you take whatever offer you can get and slide down just a bit.  Or you can grab a guy like Jerry/mabin/ayers/english here if you went with Moreno in the first.  Which would be the ultimate high five to yourself.  The problem is that one of your huge needs is going to end up being linebacker, Paris Lennon has actually not done a terrible job for you – you’d love to wish Dizon could play football, but it just doesn’t look that way.  So you have to ask yourself at this point, need or highest rated?  Highest rated will fill a need, just not THE need.  So here’s what you do, if there wasn’t a slide guy that you wanted (read:  linebacker) you trade the pick if you can.  If not you take the best backer who is here, probably James Laurinaitis who happens to be sliding his way out of the first round.  What a great pick that would be.  That opens up a 3rd round choice of a TE – I’d go with whoever is there, probably Ingram with his missing the whole 2008 season and all.

So let’s review shall we?  If you Detroit Lions listen to me you’ll have:

QB  Jay Cutler

RB Knowshon Moreno

WR Tory Holt

OT Orlando Pace

CB Vonte Davis

LB James Laurinatis

TE Cornelious Ingram

And all of that after the 1st 3 rounds of the draft.  I assume you are going to have to give a 4th or 5th to STL and Denver to finish out those trades (maybe give them george foster back?)  Talk about an instant shot in the arm, you would be a contending team at least (in the NFC North) – and would have by far the best QB and WR in the conference.

Thank me later Detroit, or hire me as your GM…whatever is fine with me.

In what can only be described as the dumbest marketing decision since changing the recipe of Coke (the beverage…not the LT treat) – our friend over at Quaker Oats decided that they wanted to take their market leading, and best tasting, sports drink and change it.

Yeah there isn’t anything like taking something everyone can agree they really like and changing it…

Yep, coke 2 is a great idea! It's still around right?

Well at least Gatorade didn’t change their formula, they just changed their name…to G.  I’m not sure changing a name works quite as well as Quaker Oats thinks it will…Although it worked for Prince and Albert “I’m not Joey” Bell.

Can I be honest for a minute?  What exactly does Gatorade think will happen – that the “youth” of America will start to buy “G” because it’s cool?  I don’t think Gatorade was ever not “cool”.  In fact I think “G” just sounds stupid, almost as stupid as the new “G” commercials do (with voice over from lil wayne).  I’m not sure I’m going to trust anything Lil Wayne says to drink…

Especially not:

-Gatorade Fierce or as it’s now called “Bring It”
-Gatorade X-Factor or as it’s now called “Be Tough”
-Gatorade AM or as it’s now called “Shine On”
-Gatorade Rain or as it’s now called “No Excuses”

Man I’m thirsty, I can really go for cool glass of Be Tough!!!!  What tool is going to say that?

Here is what really gets me about “G”.  As I surf around the internet all of these bloggers who got the media kits talk about how “tight” the commercials are with Lil Wayne.  Are you serious?  What sort of idiot thinks that the “G” switch will be a good thing.

If you visit a blog that describes the new “G” as something other than the worst marketing ploy ever, never go back.

These are the games I’m keeping an eye on for this week:

Really?  Only a 7 point line?  Ball State, probably the class of the MAC west, vs Akron…who plays football, but not always well.  This is an easy one to pick, but keep any eye on it, it should start to slide out past 7 points.

Georgia > Vandy…so they should Kill the cocks.  That’s all I really need.  I would take this line even if it was 10 +

Fresno State will play anyone, anywhere.  How bout the Badgers, at home?  Well they will play them, they just won’t win.  Wisconsin is a good team, Fresno isn’t bad this year either but they aren’t quite the Badgers.

You won’t find a bigger Frank Solich fan out there, but his team won’t be able to hang with the powerful offense that is CMU.  They have a great QB who I am sure we have all heard of, but what is underrated is their offensive line that after a few games to gel will come out and pound the Ohio D line that has had to play 2 close, and tough, games in a row.  The Bobcats gave the Buckeyes a scare, as much as I hate to say this about a MAC team, but CMU has a much better O than Ohio State without Beanie.  Take CMU, even if this line makes a magical leap out to 7 or so.

Those are the lines I am watching.  Keep an eye on those games for injuries and other big news stories, I’ll have my offical picks Thursday, and our friend the computer will return this week after last week off.  By the way I was 3 for 4 last week thanks to a line shift for me toward Miami (+23.5).  Once again ECU screwed me by exposing a crappy overrated team.  I have to tell you, I still don’t think ECU is that good, but I think they are good enough to expose the junk teams out there.  Good for them.  There aren’t a whole lot of great teams out there this season so ECU could play a factor in deciding the top 10.  Either way, I’d stay away from betting on them for awhile, I’d still be OK with putting money against them.