Bow Tie Betting Football

The Detriot Lions recently came to terms with Matthew Stafford to be the #1 pick overall at about 3pm Central time.

Here is the big problem that everyone seems to have with this pick, they overpaid for a quarterback who many have as teh #2 QB and roughly the #8 player on their boards.

Leave it to the Lions to draft a guy who barely should be in the Top 10 and pay him the most any player has ever received on draft day.

Mark my words, this pick will hurt the Lions more than it will help.  They still have a lot of other picks and can grab a middle linebacker and tackle very early but that isn’t the issue.  They can fill their holes with draft picks, but the issue is that they now have $42 million (at least, that’t the money he’s assured of making) tied up in a quarterback who in my opinion is awful (yes, I said awful).

Mel Kiper is trying his hardest to make this seem like a good pick, but for the most part even Lions fans agree that it is an awful pick.

It’s just about 24 hours before the start of the NFL draft and there are some rumors to touch on right now:

The Lions, yeah the 0-16 Lions, are rumored to be listening to the Browns about a swap of 1st round picks if the Browns toss in Brady Quinn.

Why Might this happen:  The Lions need all the help they can get, with this trade they get a Quarterback and they maintain a top 5 pick.  The Browns seem to be all kinds of in love with Mark Sanchez and this is their shot to make a pass at him.  The Browns would save a few bucks by picking up Quinn and not paying a #1 overall price to Stafford.  It also makes sense because it would seem in the first round the Browns could pick up a QB (Quinn), an OT at #5, and a MLB/CB at #20.

Why it might not happen:  The Lions are the Lions.  They seem to have a genuine interest in paying Stafford to sit behind Culpepper and a bad offensive line for a few seasons.  The Browns may also be a bit nervous about trading to #1 and grabbing a QB with all of their receiver issues at this point.  Although if you factor in a trade of Edwards to the Giants for some picks(which would be WRs) then you can see how this is starting to workout.  The reports are no one in Browns-Town seems to care for Brady Quinn.

Cardinals trade Boldin to Bears/Eagles/Giants/Jets for a 2nd and 5th.

Why it might happen:  Well it kind of has to happen.  One of those teams is going to end up ponying up the 2nd rounder for him.  The Bears are a surprise team on this list, but consider this:  With their 2nd round pick they want a receiver Boldin > Any 2nd round receiver and the Bears have the 5th rounder from Denver that was thrown in in the Cutler deal.  So the Bears are very much alive in this with everyone else.

Why it won’t happen:  It can’t not happen…can it?

Washington Redskins move up to #1 overall

Why it might happen:  This is an interesting rumor, I don’t know that the skins have the fire power (it would have to be Campbell the #13 and some change) but they seem to really hate Campbell in Washington.  The Lions could duff this all up by coming to an agreement with Stafford on terms…but it’s not like the Lions to duff it up.

Why it won’t happen:  The Lions are the Lions, they are finally getting interest in the #1 pick, from teams who don’t want the guy they want(Which should set off some alarms…), but if they come to terms with Stafford the whole deal goes kablooeee!  So would the first trade I’m talking about.  The interesting team in all of this is the Rams, everyone kind of gets the vibe that you can’t trust them to NOT take a quarterback – very interesting.

And those were just some draft trade rumors to keep an eye on a little under 24 hours before the draft.  As drafts usually go the NFL draft is the most busy in terms of trading but the trades kind of slip by the rumor mills – so I fully expect the Lions to take Stafford and a battle royale to break out between 6 teams for Sanchez (who probably goes #2 to someone…)

Rumors are flying around the internet this week that the Green Bay Packers worked out fomer Duke Point Guard (and bench warmer this season)  Greg Paulus.

Here’s the interesting part of the whole thing, Greg Paulus was actually an AMAZING high school football player.  He had offers from Notre Dame and the U to name a few.

Scout had him ranked ahead of Colt McCoy coming out of high school:  #9 QB in the land

Again, he’s an interesting prospect – if he had gone the football route he would probably just be a Junior and have a year to grow even more.  He’d be worth taking a flyer on (probably not in the draft) but as a camp invite.  He has an arm I’m sure, and basketball doesn’t take away from a quarterbacks football bulk.

I’d keep an eye on him, although I’m sure his decision making is in question:

Miami Cheerleaders:

Yeah...the Miami Cheerleaders are hot - bad choice Greg!

Duke Cheerleaders:

Not ugly at all, still good looking, but not Miami Hot...silly Greg

Roc Hoover, aka Mark Schlereth, made a complete ass out of himself today on NFL live after the Jay Cutler trade was announced when he said, “The Bear’s just got worse today…”

I want to like Mark Schlereth, the Alaskan great, but I just can’t.  When you say something as stupid as that people are going to begin to question not only your football knowledge but also your sanity.

I understand that Mark Schlereth played 12 amazing NFL seasons, but just because you can play doesn’t mean you understand the game (see:  Chris Weber and Time Outs).  The big problem I have with Roc, and ESPN, is that they let him go on the air when he was clearly a very jaded Broncos fan.  He feels like Cutler let him down, and that’s understandable, but to go on national TV and proclaim that the Bears got worse is just stupid.

I think to put an exclamation point on his stupidity Roc decided to take it a step further and say the Bears were “Just barely ahead of Detroit now in the division…”  This is the same Detroit who was 0-16, and the same Bears who were 1 half away from the playoffs?  What?  Correct me if I’m wrong but the Bears MINUS Jay Cutler were better than the Packers last season.

I think ESPN needs to gain some control over their programming again, it’s nice to parade out these former NFL players, but when the class of the NFL players who can actually do some analyst work go to the NFL network ESPN is stuck picking from the trash heap, or “The Roc Pile”.

Let’s break this trade down logically:

The Bears Get

-  Jay Cutler

-2009 5th Round Draft Pick

The Broncos Get

- Kyle Orton

- 2009 1st and 3rd round draft picks

- 2010 1st round draft pick

Let’s break it down.  The Bears got the jewel of the trade in Jay Cutler.  A 25 year old, pro bowl quaterback.  The Broncos got serviceable 26 year old, and really not a bad dude, quarterback in Kyle Orton.  If you compare just the PLAYERS in this trade the Bears robbed the Broncos, thankfully it wasn’t a straight up swap.  The first round draft pick this year from the Bears is an interesting piece.  If the Bears had held on to this pick they would have been stuck in no-mans land in terms of their needs.  The Bears NEED some receiver help, and it just wasn’t there for them in the middle-late 1st round.  With that in mind the Bears would probably have had to draft an offensive tackle, who probably wouldn’t be as good as Orlando Pace…whom the Bears signed today.  So this pick to the Bears would have been tough to use, so it was in fact expendable.  The Broncos on the other hand can really use this pick, they need help on defense and, some are saying, at quarterback.  I just don’t see it that way, the Broncos have Kyle Orton, a guy who can run the type of offense that they want to run in Denver, he has the exact same skill set as Matt Cassel, except he has more starts under his belt.  With the first round picks Denver now has, they can really start to build that defense with whatever they want, Vonte Davis anyone?  With Davis opposite Bailey than can put to rest any concerns they are going to have in that secondary, at least for this season, at corner.  And don’t forget that the Broncos signed Brian Dawkins to fill a void in their secondary (he won’t last long, but could do the job for a season or 2 when the safety class gets much better in the draft.)

The third round pick this season is probably the one that confused ol’ Roc Hoover.  This third round pick is going to be a nice pick for Denver, it’s well within the top 85 – the unofficial cut off for high level talent that slipped, and they have a lot of positions they could draft that a player in this spot can come in and start at.  The Bears did indeed give this one away, BUT Roc, they have a compensatory pick at the end of the 3rd round that they received when they lost Bernard Berrian last season.  So the Bears do still have a 3rd round pick – I see this as a wash (when you compare it to gaining Cutler this isn’t anywhere near a loss, ROC!).  At then end of the 3rd round the Bears can still grab a receiver or, if they wanted, a strong side linebacker who could come in and push for minutes right away.

The 5th round pick the Bears received could be an important part of this trade.  With this 5th rounder the Bears could grab a young offensive linemen who isn’t goin to have to do anything his first 2 or 3 seasons in the league other than sit back and learn.  (You kind of see how this is going to take the place of the first round offensive linemen who was going to have to come in and start right away Roc?)

The first rounder the Broncos get in 2010 is going to be an interesting one to keep an eye on.  If, like I think, the Bears do make the playoffs this pick is going to land somewhere in the 20′s, maybe even late 20′s, and next years draft class isn’t exactly “loaded”.  The top of the draft looks good, you have guys like Bradford and McCoy who are going to be highly sought after, but after them things look a little bit thin (at least as you head to the 20′s.)  This pick is HUGE for the Broncos if, like I suspect, they fill in their defense quite a bit in 2009 they are going to be able to use this pick more for a “want” than a need. And that is a very nice position to be sitting in.  I’d like to point out that if they fight the urge to draft a qb early in 2009 they could have their choice of the top QBs in the 2010 draft (McCoy, Bradford.)  If they have a nice season in 2009 they don’t need to worry about a quarterback, BUT even if they did they could still package their 1st rounders in 2010 and get a top QB of their liking in the draft.

So let’s review shall we?

The Bears ARE better right now, than they were 24 hours ago.  The Broncos were able to get A TON of value for a PRO BOWL quarterback.  Both sides did well, and no one was robbed here ROC.  The Bears put themselves near, if not in, the front of the NFC North.  For my money the Bears still have a very talented defense – now all this defense is going to have to do is not allow over 24 points a game and Cutler should carry the Bears to victory.  I think the Broncos now have the ability to fill a bunch of the holes that they have on their team (provided they don’t waste the picks this year on a QB.)

A Win – Win early trade recap, and that’s a fair way to look at it.  To claim that any team lost this trade is almost as dumb as the name Roc Hoover.

When Mike Vick aka “Ron Mexico” finally got out of prison one thing was on everyone’s mind…who wants him?

The usual suspects are going to be at the top of every list, the Dallas “We sign everyone so we can screw up a good team” Cowboys and the Oakland “We already signed enough guys to screw up a team that made the super bowl…now it’s just overkill” Raiders.  But I think there are a few other teams who will probably end up having some interest, the question will become one more about morals than need.

The List

Jacksonville Jaguars – They have a quarterback situation, of course people question if Vick could even play QB and figure he’d have to move to WR…well good news!  Jacksonville has neither a good QB or any receivers.

New Orleans – Mike Vick is from the south.  As much as we all hate to say this, the South isn’t as against dog fighting in some parts as the North is.  Couple that with the fact the Saints play in a dome where Mike Vick could be deadly, and not just to animals, lined up next to Reggie Bush in some sort of weird formation.

Seattle – They have nothing.  They need something.  Plain and simple.  A tough sell to the locals.

49ers – Again, what could be a perfect fit for Vick is going to be a tough sell to the locals.

Tampa Bay – An interesting fit.  Vick could play any one of a number of positions for them and they are located in the South where things will probably go better than the would in a Northern city.

Carolina – Another good fit.  He can do a lot of things for a team that doesn’t have a QB and has some old receivers.

Buffalo – If TO sticks around he would be a nice distraction for the media to take some heat off Vick.  Plus the fact the Buffalo media isn’t exactly as major as some other cities that he could go to.

List Where Mike Vick CANNOT Go

New York – The media would destroy him.  The crush would be too much for any one of the 2 New York City Teams.

Chicago – As a Bears fan this is hard for me to say, but he’s just another Devin Hester.  The media may not love him either, it would just be too hard a sell.

EAGLES – A media magnet on a team that has all the pieces almost every year…yeah they’ve done that before.

The fact is it’s going to be some time before Vick has to worry about what team he is going to have to ask to take him – but it’s always nice to start looking early.

Cowboys...yeah they'd be on my list if I was Vick

...And so are the Raiders

It appears as if the Lions have traded over paid DT Cory Redding to Seattle for Julian Peterson (a 5 time pro bowler).  The Lions also threw in a 5th round draft pick to help the trade happen.

Why is this trade important?  By aquiring Peterson to team with Sims and another LB (there is going to be a battle to see who this 3rd starter is) the Lions have pretty much said, “We aren’t going to draft Curry.”  Now why is this a big deal?  The Lions appear to be looking at OT and QB with the #1 overall pick and could probably trade down and still land a guy of their liking.  So if your team wants Curry you can now call the Lions and ask to trade up.

In my opinion, because of this trade, the Lions have shown their willingness not to draft the one guy that they were really sold on with the #1 overall pick.  A pretty strong indicator that they are willing to move the pick.

In fact with this trade the Detriot Lions have moved ahead of their Canadian counterpart in almost all facets of the game…except cheerleaders that is (because the Lions don’t have cheerleaders).

BC Lions Cheerleaders, the only thing that BC has better than Detriot now...thanks Matt Millen!

The corners and safties ran their 40′s yesterday, in what can only be described as the biggest disappointment in the combine this year:

Corners

***NOTES:  The fastest guy of this group was a saftey at Nicholls State.  Not exactly the type of numbers that are going to make any teams reach early for him however.  Vontae Davis probably put himself into the #1 corner slot.  Malcom Jenkins was so slow it hurt everyone who was watching.  A very thin year for corners, I’m not sure if I was a GM that I would draft and pay any of these guys first rounder money.  The free agent class may be better than the rookie class for the first time in a long time.

Safties

***NOTES:  Clemons…from Clemson…probably did himself the most good at the combine.  In my mind he moved ahead of Delmas out of Western Michigan, who didn’t show up in the top 5 40 times.  Burton out of ND really suprised me, you would think with their pass defense none of their guys could run.

Overall it was a terrible day for DBs, and as I was saying all along, USC really proved to have some of the most overrated guys in the world when their DBs hit the field.  Cary Harris, the corner from USC who has been on the rise for a few weeks now, saw his stock fall harder than anyone in the DOW with a 4.65 40 time.  You just can’t play a ton of corner with that time.  USC safety Kevin Ellison ran a 4.88 40…Which is good if he wanted to play some defensive tackle.  Again, this is going to be a bad year to draft a first round DB.  Outside of Davis, and I don’t really think Davis is that great, there isn’t a first rounder to be found.

Now that all position groups have run their 40 yard dashes here are the top times in each group:

Quarterback

*** Notes:  No real suprises with this group, a lot of big guys who were not really expected to be the best movers out there.  I think Willy, Painter, Bomar and Stafford all did better thana lot of us probably expected.  From time to time those guys seem to be statues out there in the pocket, maybe it speaks more to their pocket presence than anything else.  If you had to ask me, that’s probably a lot worse than being slow.

Running Backs

***Notes:  This group was full of suprises for me, when is the last time that you recall the projected top 2 backs in the upcoming draft did not finish in the Top 10 40 times?  You would have liked to have had a few of these backs go a little bit faster, the big suprise in the Top 11 had to be Ian Johnson, or the fact Knowshown Moreno didn’t show up on the list.  You would have liked a better time out of Kory Sheets, at least if you were his agent.  Glen Coffee was a nice suprise up near the top – and Marlon Lucky needed to be a top 10 40 yard dash guy to get drafed, and he was.  Once again these 40 times were subpar as a group.

Wide Receivers

***Notes:  This was a nice group full of  surprises. Percy Harvin?  Where was your top of the line speed?  For a kid who has to play in space to be worth anything in the NFL he doesn’t have the Top Line speed that you would want out of a player like him.  If I had to pick one receiver that was under 6’0 to draft in the first round it would be Deon Butler.  Harvin may have ran himself off of a few draft boards (cough * bears * cough)

Tight Ends

*** Notes:  A pretty standard group in terms of speed at the combine, no real “burners” but Cook was a suprise.  A bigger guy who has that kind of straight line speed may have run himself into the first day for sure, maybe even the first.  Ingram was someone you would have liked to have seen run better – he wasn’t awful, but he wasn’t under the 4.65 you like to see out of a pass catcher.  Shawn Nelson is the class of the TEs.

Offensive Linemen

***Notes:  This doesn’t really mean to much to anyone, it’s nice to see your guy move a little bit, and Fulton, Meredith, and Murtha gained some bonus points.

Defensive Linemen

***Notes:  Some of these guys are going to see life as a rush end, some are going to be draftable in the 3-4.  Larry English should be on this list at 4.77 – but he will be recorded as a linebacker.  Sidbury needed that time, speed has been a little bit of a question about this guy, but he did great.  Not really a group of burners but not bad at all.

Linebackers

***Notes:  Remember when I said that USC has the most overrated group at this draft?  I feel that way more than ever after seeing some of these 40 times.  Cushing?  You can’t come in at a 4.74, with his durabilty questions and lack of speed he really didn’t do himself any favors.  Curry just made himself the #1 backer in the draft easily.  Clay Matthews, USC, did a better than expected job – I currently like him the most out of all the USC backers.  6’3 240 is MAYBE a little small to play a SAM backer so he may be looking at a rush end or a 3-4 outside backer.  But he really did a great job to jump ahead of some guys with his performance (I’m not sure they are going to move him ahead of his teammates on any draftboards, but they should).

Those were the 40 times in this years combine.  Stay tuned tomorrow when we talk about the bench press, and add the DBs to the 40 mix.  A quick note, Pat White NEEDED that 40 time to get drafted, anything slower than 4.65 he would have been hard to draft early, but now he can be a legit reciever in the NFL.  That is of course if a team doesn’t want him to play any QB.  I think he’d be worth giving a shot at QB.

Andre Smith...Cartman?

Andre Smith, according to some the #1 tackle in the upcoming NFL Draft, left the combine Saturday without telling anyone.

Which is in stark contrast to what Cartman, whom many are going to compare Andre Smith to, would have done. Cartman would have made a big scene and decided to tell the NFL that it could go screw itself, while some believe that Andre Smith just left while leaving that message as an implication, but not a statement. According to Smith:

“I should have told my group leader that I was leaving, and I didn’t. I didn’t mean to ruffle any feathers or step on any toes. I didn’t mean to grandstand anyone at the combine. That was not my intention at all, and I apologize for my mistake.”

Which was his major mistake. He should have made as big a scene as possible to help shift the focus from his weight, and the fact that he is probably the most overrated dude in the draft, to the fact that he knows how to make a stylish exit.

I mean look at this dude, no one even noticed he was fat after he fell in the pool! That’s something Andre Smith needs to look into

That’s all we got for today. The TEs and OLs ran today in the 40 here are the top times:

Tight Ends
Cook, Jared 4.50
Nelson, Shawn 4.56
Morrah, Cameron 4.66
Ingram, Cornelius 4.68
Branson, Marquez 4.71
Johnson, David 4.73
Bronson, Jared 4.76
Sperry, Kory 4.77

Offensive Line
Murtha, Lydon 4.89
Meredith, Jamon 5.03
Fulton, Xavier 5.04
Beatty, William 5.12
Cadogan, Gerald 5.12
Luigs, Jonathan 5.14
Bell, Joel 5.15
Britton, Eben 5.16
Walker, Brandon 5.17
Cooper, Jon 5.18
Smith, Jason 5.22

Lydon Murtha is a guy to keep an eye on. He can really move, which suprised some folks, and was around the top in the 40, Vertical Jump, Broad Jump, 3 cone, and 20 yard shuttle. When Mike Mayock posted his original preview of the guy he said he was too slow to do anything. Personally the numbers and drills say otherwise. Murtha had some injuries early in his career and could be an absolute steal some time later in the draft. Again of this OL group Smith refused participate – and vanished. Which was a super strong move.

In a move that can only drum up good will from males in the age demographic, 18 – 25, Navy superintendent Jeff Fowler decided last Friday that Eric Kettani will not be allowed to attend the NFL combine.

Eric Kettani has another 5 years left to give to the Navy after he graduates – but NFL teams knew that and still wanted to work him out.  Check out what his agent said:

“We respect the decision of the U.S. Navy,” Chad Wiestling, Kettani’s agent, told the Baltimore Sun. “I know Eric is very disappointed in the decision. What the combine basically is, it’s a job interview. My take on it is that the Navy is denying him an opportunity to interview for a post-military career, whether right or wrong.”

And he’s right.  It’s not like the Navy, or military for that matter, has been oozing with good will over the past 5 or so years, this would have been a chance to just let a kid workout, build up some good will, and tell the NFL they can see him in 5 years.

I understand that Eric Kettani will be an officer in the Navy, so it’s not exactly like not letting him workout at the combine is going to hurt the sizes of classes at the Naval academy – but it will hurt their recruiting of guys who aren’t going to be officers.  Males 18 – 25 like football, I don’t know if the Navy knows that or not, or I guess more specifically if Jeff Fowler knows that or not, but it’s a fact.  And guess what demographic the Navy recruits from?  That’s right sports fans Males 18 – 25.

I think this is a terrible choice, it’s not like anyone was asking to let Kettani be allowed to play this year, they just wanted to let him workout.  Yeah, kind of like just letting him practice like he was going to be an NFL player, and you know what AI thinks about practice!

Some dudes don’t even like Practice!!!!  And all this guy wanted to do was practice.

Well that’s my rant on the combines “opening” day.  Basically the day the guys report and get their stuff taken care of.  The real events start up on Friday.