Bow Tie Betting Football

Well that time is just about here – one week from yesterday the NCAA FBS football season will be on and rocking!

This year we have a new TOP SECRET betting formula that we are going to use to select 5 games each week (to eliminate those “tie” weeks.)

Each week we are going to pretend we’re using $100 per bet, and my pretend starting balance is going to be $1000.

Bank:  $1000

Game 1

Thursday September 2

FSN

There are shockingly FEW ISU highlight videos on YouTube…search it yourself!

Here’s what you have to notice from the Video:

-  The bulk of the highlights are vs. Baylor and Kent State.  That’s like me making a highlight video of myself dunking on 3rd graders.  While they’re trying their best they don’t really belong on the court.

-  The “highlights” of the Nebraska game aren’t really highlights as much as they are moments where it shows ISU doing not as bad as Nebraska.

-  Nothing says class like storming the field vs. Colorado.  Yeah, the Colorado who lost to Toledo by 100000.  (To be fair they did clinch a bowl bid – and that’s a big deal for Iowa State.)

So…what do we take away from all of the highlights?  ISU isn’t the awful ISU we all used to know.  Coach Paul Rhoads had a great first season where the ball bounced his way and a soft schedule walked them into a bowl game – but don’t like the bowl game fool you.  This is still Iowa State – this season towards the bottom of the Big 12.  They are playing Northern Illinois – towards the top of the MAC.  Can the top of the MAC beat the bottom of the Big 12?  In the opening weekending they can.

Mr. Bowtie Predicted Spread – NIU by 4.25 (yes…it really says .25 points…)

Game 2

ESPN

3:30p

	163	Purdue Boilermakers	+11 -110		54 O -110 U -110
	164	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-11 -110

NBC

3:30p

	171	UCLA Bruins	+3 -110		43 O -110 U -110
	172	Kansas State Wildcats	-3 -110

ABC

Mr Bowtie Predicted Spread – Syracuse wins by 13.3333333  (Good luck with that one Mr. Bowtie!)

****All lines are from BetUs.com Friday August 27 9:15AM

Well ladies and gentlemen it appears as if your thirst for college football will be quenched this weekend!  And what better way to quench that thirst a little bit more than with a 3 pack of bets to start your season?

(All lines via Betus.com as of 9/1 10am Central Time)

South Carolina +5.5

@

NC State -5.5

Golly, I really, really, really loved this line on Sunday when it was a simple -4 for NC State.  The fact is NC State has the better team this season AND is playing at home.  On the other side of the coin is the fact South Carolina DESTROYED NC State last year to the tune of 34-0.  There are 2 ways this can go NC State can get a little bit of revenge and beat up on Coach Steve OR they can get down early and think, “There is no way we can beat the east coast USC!”  Personally I think North Carolina State is going to beat the fake USC by at least 9.

North Carolina State has a dynamic young quarterback in Russell Wilson.  Let’s ignore the fact he went 1 for 5 last season against USC.  He was a Freshman in his first game, so that makes him what, like 12?  The truth is Russell Wilson will put up some amazing numbers in his college career, he just fits that mold – you know the Joe Hamilton mold.  Offense doesn’t always WIN games, but a dynamic offense never loses games either.

The reason I bring that up is South Carolina lost so many guys from their defense last year that I wasn’t sure they would be able to field a team.  I thought they were going to go all “Necessary Roughness” on us and try and get Sinbad back for one last season of eligibility.

Sinbad; he looks A LOT gayer than I remember.

The truth is when you are South Carolina and the one corner on your defense that you are sure of is a FRESHMAN in Stephon Gilmore – then you are in trouble.  Freshman don’t always do well in their first games, on the road, with a very hostile…and hot crowd.

The best 2 (4) things to come out of NC State (yeah and that counts Phillip Rivers.)

Take NC State in this one.  And enjoy a Thursday victory.

Game 2

Missouri + 6.5

@ (“Neutral” site…in Missouri…yep)

Illinois – 6.5

Remember when “Juice” Williams and Arrelious Benn were going to take over the Big 10?  Well things never really got going at U of I.  Last season when Louisiana-Lafayette came to town and almost gave the Illini a beat down things just started going down the toilet.  The major issue with U of I is one that no one seems to talk about, but it’s the fact they don’t have a running back.  You’d think the #1 school in the state of Illinois could grab a kid from that state (which usually produces a good back or 2 a year) and plug him in for 4 seasons.  Well it hasn’t happened.  The good news is that U of I has 4 backs listed on their 2 deeps, ALL with the -OR- listed next to their name.  You know what that says to me?  That says to me you have 0 backs.  Oh well, with Juice and a very talented group of receivers the backs have to do little more than put on their jersey’s straight to have a good day.

Mizzou.  Ohhhhhhhh Mizzou.  Anyone remember last season, when all the talk was about how Mizzou could score like a million points in a game?  Well – we aren’t going to be hearing any of that nonsense this season.  They have to replace their QB, WR, and about 100 other guys on O.  The truth is we don’t have a whole lot to go on with their offense so I can’t throw numbers out there or anything (which is the #1 reason why week 1 games are so hard to pick) but I get the feeling that these guys aren’t going to be able to beat U of I this year.  In fact I’m not sure that the no names of Missouri are going to be able to keep it within 17 points let alone 6.5.  The U of I D is going to be pretty good – expect Martez “Tez” Wilson to have a big game.  Sure he has a lazy nickname but the fighting Zookers are hoping that’s the only part of him that’s lazy.

Take U of I – 6.5

Game 3

Northern Illinois +16.5

@

Wisconsin -16.5

I love to bet on the opening Saturday NIGHT Big 10 game, and bet against the Big 10 team.  It happens that for the second straight year that Big 10 team is playing Northern Illinois.  Unlike last year Northern Illinois does not have Larry English to run around and give an oversized and slow Big 10 line fits.  Although unlike last year Northern Illinois isn’t trotting out a Freshman QB, Freshman RB, and Freshman head coach.  They say your 2nd year in a system is when you really start to pick things up.

With a lot of freshman on Northern Illinois 2-deeps Huskie fans can take solace in the fact that NONE of the freshman are listed as starters unlike a season ago.  When you play a BIG Big 10 team like Wisconsin you are going to have to spread them out and tire them, luckily for NIU they run a spread O (where they RUN a ton) with 3 or 4 running backs who can see action and a running QB who can give you some trouble if you don’t watch him.  The speed on the outside at receiver is as good as NIU has had in year with Nathan Palmer and Willie Clark providing the wheels and Landon Cox bringing the size at 6’3 213.  Expect Senior Marcus Lewis and Freshman Martell Moore to also see some action – because they are tall.  You love tall receivers in a spread with a young QB.  Speaking of the young QB Chandler Harnish is going to be the man at the helm this season – he had an OK freshman campaign that was marred with injuries and inconsistencies.  If the saying holds true and you really learn a system in your 2nd year then Mr. Harnish could be waiting to be that next line of great MAC QBs.

Speaking of inexperienced QBs Wisconsin recently named Scott Tolzen their starting QB.  The truth is with an offensive line the size that the Badgers has Tolzen has to do little else but not spin the wrong way on a handoff and he’s going to do exactly what the Badgers want this season.  However, when you have a QB who was lightly recruited, and generally seen as having not a whole ton of talent, you have to worry.  Tolzen wasn’t really that great in High School so you have to wonder if he is forced to pass will he be able to hit receivers Nick Toon and Isaac Anderson?  I’m betting no.  At running back the Badgers have 2 good/great ones in Zach Brown and John Clay.  Clay is probably the better of the 2 and better suited for this offense.  Why?  Because John Clay is a giant and the offensive line is as big as you will probably see – so the young/smallish Huskie line is going to be in for a long day.

When you have a match up like this and it seems like each team should probably have some success on offense you have to look at the spread.  16.5 is just TOO large of spread for a running team with a new QB and a defense that makes their head coach nervous to cover in the first game of the season.  Again when the Big 10 has a team that opens at night they generally don’t do so well.  I’m figuring the folks up in Madison are going to be too drunk by game time to be that huge of a distraction – and I’m not sure they are giving the Huskies the type of respect they deserve.

Take NIU +16.5 and call it a pretty good college football weekend!

Check back on Monday to see how we did, and best of luck to all of you!

So let’s take a look at how my bets did:
I lost my $25 teaser that was NIU, Michigan, VT, and Buffalo, thanks to VT.

A little recap of the games:

Buffalo 42 (-3)

UTEP    17

Buffalo handled their business like myself and “the Machine” predicted, both Willy and Starks had huge games for the Bulls vs an overmatched/rebuilding UTEP squad.

Some betting notes to take away from this game: Don’t ever bet UTEP this year, they are going to be bad.  Buffalo is MUCH improved and they are going to be an interesting team to keep an eye on when it comes to betting.  I believe their games vs. Pitt and Mizzou are going to be lines that should be very much in the Bulls favor.  If the Pitt line is anywhere near +10 take it and run.

Game #2

VT  22 (-9.5)  LOSS

ECU 27

This was a terrible game to watch, and an even worse bet for myself and the Machine.  I had a chance with my teaser but when VT missed that extra point the writing was on the wall.

Some betting notes on this game:

ECU plays WVU.  Their win in this game may move the line slightly to ECU, which is something to keep an eye on.  ECU won against VT with luck, and a quarterback by the name of Sean Glennon.  I don’t know how to say this nicely, but he’s a terrible football player and it almost seems like Beamer was hoping he would be OK this season rather than knowing he would be.  VT is going to have a rough year, keep an eye on that QB situation though a change may help this team.  The return of Macho will also help this team.  They could still be a good bet if they have a nice line in their favor.  There is talent on this team, just not currently at QB.

Game #3

UTAH   25

Michigain  23 (-3.5) LOSS

Another game where the machine and I were done in by poor QB play.  I can’t stress this enough Michigan has talent, a jackass as a coach, and a stout D.  They should be better than this!!!!

Some betting notes from this game:

Utah is a good team, don’t get me wrong, but Michigan lost this game with a coach who refuses to gameplan to his players but gameplan to his system.  News flash RiRod!  You don’t have a spread type offense on your team!  How about this, you have a multi-set offense where you can get your QB under center and your RBs behind him so you can use your players for what they are built for!  Then, when you get your guys in, you can move to the full spread.  I’m just saying…Don’t bet on Michigan this year, EVER.  I don’t care what the line is, they are junk because they have a junk coach this year.  He is willing to throw in the towel this year, and so am I.  See you next year Michigan!  As for UTAH, I don’t know what to think.  They beat a Michigan team that can’t do anything right, barely.  Keep an eye on them though.

Game #4

NIU 27 (+8.5)

Minnesota 31

A game the machine and I pulled out.  This was a great game to watch, it was exciting, and it showed just how bad Minnesota really is.  Don’t take anything away from the Huskies, I think they are a solid team that will win the MAC west this year, but Minnesota has no defense, and no coach.

Some betting note on this game:

NIU will have some lines in their favor this year that you NEED to bet on.  They should beat WMU next week at WMU, and they should have some favorable lines even after that game.  Don’t ever put money on Minnesota, it’s not because they don’t have talent, because they don’t have a coach.  You can’t win betting on a team that doesn’t have a leader who knows what he is doing.  Going for it on 4th down may have worked out against an unorganized Northern team that clearly had a little 1st game confusion, but won’t work against anyone else the rest of the year.  Did I mention that Minnesota doesn’t have a defense either?  NIU started a Freshman QB who, in his first college action EVER, threw for 326 2TDs and 0INTs.  The Huskies should have won this game.  I feel for them, but I feel good for my pick.  A note to take on this game and some others, the MAC is strong this year.  They should beat quite a few spreads as a conference this year.

RECAP:

It was a fun first weekend of college football.  I found some conferences I love, I found some I hate.  I found teams to bet, I found teams to not bet.  That’s what week 1 is all about, prepping the battle field for weeks 2 – 14.  Let me say this now, again, so everyone can say I said it, BET ON THE MAC teams this year.  Keep an eye on them, they are going to have a strong year when other teams are down.

Normally I say, bet 1 time and then stop, don’t try to play catch-up.  Here is the problem, what do you do when you win?

Last night I won a Parlay that earned me $5 or so of fun money, and because it’s fun money I decided to roll that and my original bet over onto this beauty, turning $5 to $17 is never bad…better when it’s real money, but oh well,  I don’t live in a state where I can bet legally on sports:

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Here is my bet for Week 1, using “Fun Money”.  I’m going to keep a running total of “bets” that I make.  I don’t suggest anyone gamble on anything, but nothing wrong with using “Fun Money” and making a bet against yourself.

One thing before I post my “bet”, the key here is to “bet” smart.  It doesn’t do anyone any good if you make a bold wager and don’t win.  There is nothing wrong with making a safe bet and being happy with what you did, so what I think I am going to do with my fun account is start with $100 in fun money and bet $25 a week until I win.  Then I can play with the winnings.  So here is my bet for week 1, don’t forget to check back and see how my fun money bet did!!!!!

And I actually decided to do another cheap bet.  $5 3 team parlay, just took the money lines, looking to double my money on this fine Thursday!

So this is the first week for the computer (named “the machine”) to make it’s debut, it’s excited, I’m excited it’s going to be a lot of fun.  First a bit about the computer (“the machine”), Week 1 there are not a whole lot of adjustment to player values so it’s pretty much predicting how players have progressed rather than adjusting to an actual progression.  Who knows how good a player will be without them being on the field?

So keeping all of that in mind, here is how the computer picks in the 4 games I am going to bet:

Game #1

UTEP  23

Buffalo(-3)  14

Upset special for the machine.  It wasn’t even a close game and the machine is suggesting that I am going to get destroyed with this pick.  Here are some stats from the game:

Passing

UTEP: Trevor Vittatoe  21/30 237yds 1TD

BUFF: Drew Willy 22/32 238yds 2TDs

Rushing

UTEP: Terrell Jackson 14 carries for 102 yards

UTEP: Jason Williams 12 carries for 46 yards

BUFF: Mario Henry 6 carries for 14 yards

What do these stats tell us?  They tell us that the major ground gainer for the Bulls is a guy who I don’t think is going to be the starter.  It’s not like he had a huge load to carry anyway.  UTEP started the game with 9 unanswered in the 1st quarter; Buffalo was playing catch up all day.

Game #2

VT (-9.5) 48

ECU            10

Smack down for VT.  They just made Sean Glennon the starter and the machine LOVED it.  I think the machine and I both nailed this pick.

Passing

VT: Sean Glennon 17/24 235 yards 4TDs

ECU: Patrick Pinkney  10/17 123 yards 1TD

Rushing

VT: Kenny Lewis  17 carries for 112 yards 2 TDs

ECU: Running backs combined for 43 yards…ouch

The machine seems to dislike what ECU has to offer.  I can’t disagree.  The VT fans may seem to already think the sky is falling with TYROD being put in red-shirt land, but stay strong Techers!!!!  You have a good team, but if you read anything they seem to think about their team you’d think they are rooting for Minnesota…

Game #3

NIU (+8.5) 38

MINN            35

Well the machine seems to think what I am thinking, Minnesota is really really bad.  They are going to have to prove to me that they can stand up to the onslaught that will be the NIU running game (Although they do have a defensive end at middle linebacker.  Great move.)

Passing

NIU: Chandler Harnish  13/20 287yards 3TDs

MINN: Adam Weber  25/34 333yards 4TDs 2INTs

Rushing

NIU: Justin Anderson 16 for 63yards 2TDs

MINN: Jay Thomas 22 for 139 1TD

Seems like both offenses played well.  Both defenses didn’t seem to play so well, although NIU was able to cause a few turnovers.  Again, something I seem to think will happen was predicted by the computer.  Minnesota has a coach who needs to prove he can win and/or coach a game, so until he does so I think the computer is going to dump on them no matter who the play.

Game #4 (Bonus Pick!!!!)

UTAH             14

MICH(-3.5) 38

Michigan isn’t going to be real bad this year, the machine doesn’t think so, and I don’t think so.  Nuff said.

Passing

UTAH: Brian Johnson 14/29 133yards 2TDs 1INT

MICH: Steven Threet*  16/22 261yards 3TDs 2INTs

Rushing

UTAH: Darrell Mack 18 for 54 yards

MICH: Brandon Minor 24 for 132

*Steven Threet may not be the starter for this game.

Let me start by saying I think UTAH is a nice team, I’m not sure the machine agrees with me, and I predict a much closer game than this.  I think Michigan will cover the spread easily, but it’s only 3.5 points.

Look over the machine’s picks, I think you’ll notice that it happens to agree with me on everything but the Buffalo game.  I have to admit now I am a little bit nervous about this, Buffalo’s last out of conference win vs. a FBS school was Temple just before they joined the MAC.  That game was a 9 – 6 shootout!  I’m nervous, but every team has to have a game where they turn the corner.

Well those are the picks, come back tomorrow for my bets!

Well it is that time ladies and gentlemen. It is the Monday before the games and it’s about time that I saddle up and make my brave picks. Week 1 is always going to be the toughest, goodness knows what sort of season a lot of these teams are in for, but I’m a gamer. If you haven’t yet read my first post with my preliminary picks for a more detailed breakdown of each game, you should probably do that.

Game #1 (In chronological order)

UTEP

BUFFALO -3

I’m still going to go with Buffalo in this one. I don’t think this is as clear cut a game as I would like, but UTEP is going on the road against a much improved and excited bunch of bulls. Drew Willy is a good quarterback and Buffalo also has a bunch of linebackers who can run that can break up the spread for UTEP. Couple that with the fact UTEP has lost a bit on defense this is going to be win for Buffalo. A slam-dunk super win? No, but a win that should happen by early 4th quarter.

Game #2

Virginia Tech -9.5

ECU

Don’t let this pick fool you, I think Skip Holtz has done a heck of a job at ECU and turned them into a real decent program. The problem? Virginia Tech is real good and won’t lose to a real decent program. VT has had some off years, and haven’t exactly come out and destroyed the competition as of late, but they have shown that they could possibly do so. I really don’t even care who VT throws out there at QB, it’s the athletes they have around them plus the defense that will win this game. Virginia TECH should win by at least 2 TDs on the road to ECU. I expect it to be a big lead by the end of the 3rd quarter with ECU making a bit of a run at the end. I still feel very safe with this bet. (And the line at 9.5 instead of 10 makes me smile!)

Game #3

NIU

Minnesota -8

That darn Jerry Kill wanted to make me sweat…thanks Jerry…by not really announcing who the starting QB is going to be for this game for Northern Illinois. In theory that could throw my whole bet out the window…in theory. Red Shirt Freshman Chandler Harnish looks like he is going to be the starting QB with Dan Nicholson being the back up, or being out, depending on how his surgically repaired right shoulder is going to hold up. It would be a real shock to me if Dan Nicholson ends up starting, maybe it’s just me, but I really don’t believe in starting a guy who barely has practiced in a BRAND NEW OFFENSE. I know what you are about to say, “DMD you said you hate freshman who start at QB!!!!”, and I do. Here is the thing that kept me from flipping to Minnesota in this one, Minnesota sucks. Plain and simple, they have no defense and a neato trick spread to keep Big 10 defenses confused. Counfused to the tone of 0 wins in the Big 10, and 1 win out of conference. Nothing they have ever done has impressed me under their new coach, even moving a defensive end to middle linebacker less than 10 days before kickoff with Northern. Does no one else find this odd? Carrying an extra 30 pounds makes me think he isn’t going to be the best coverage guy ever. Heck he probably isn’t going to be the best guy to contain any sort of mis-direction either. I don’t mean to be so hard on Minnesota, but early on they look like a team that is being lead by a guy who isn’t really sure what he is doing…In fact it looks like their leader is a guy who only has 1 head coaching win in the past 10 years…Stick with the Huskies, the Gophers are going to goof something up and keep the game close. I don’t know that Northern will win this game, but they will beat the spread.

BONUS PICK!!!!!

Utah

Michigan -3.5

I know what everyone is thinking, “This is a great game, the Utes are really going to show up and pound poor ol’ Michigan.” Maybe I missed something, did Rich Rod cut all of Michigan’s former 4 and 5 star recruits? Did those guys forget how to play football? Nope. I know the other argument is probably going to be something along the lines of “Utah is good, they run the spread. Michigan fears the spread.” Yeah, it’s not like Rich Rod has ever seen the spread or anything. I mean, it’s not like he runs it….or….does he? Let’s not be stupid here people. This line is based off 1 simple fact, in the eyes of the nation, Michigan is cold because they lost some bad games last year. They have a new coach, they have talented players, I’m not really sure why anyone is being so hard on Michigan. If this was Minnesota, then fine, but not the Wolverines. Take Michigan. Enjoy the win. And watch all the bandwagon college football fans cry!

Stay tuned tomorrow for when I post my computer simulation results along with what bets you could possibly make with this combination of winners!

College football season is here again and if you are like me you enjoy “wagering” against the point spreads. In no way do I suggest gambling on anything at anytime, but there is nothing wrong with making correct predictions against the “brain trust” in Las Vegas.

A quick background on what exactly a line or point spread is:

A point spread is basically the difference in score of the favorite vs. the under dog. A line of -10 for a team suggests that the favorite team should win by AT LEAST 10 points. Now, how is a line chosen? This is a weird science that involves some math, some prognostication and some good old fashioned trickery. What do I mean by trickery? I mean that the reason lines are what they are, is to draw bettors in to bet. Casinos and sports books are FOR PROFIT organizations, don’t ever forget that.

So what is the moral of the story? Sometimes you will see a line and say, “No way does that line make any sense!” but you have to consider that the line is what it is, so people will come in and make a bet. (And lose so the sports book makes money!)

How do I make my picks? This isn’t as simple to explain as lines were. I make my picks by asking one simple question, “Which games are easiest to win?” That’s it. If you go into picking sports contests by trying to be “that guy’ who was able to predict the craziest upset you are in this for the wrong reason. You bet to win. That’s it. As a fun little comparison I’m going to use a popular video game to simulate the games the night before to see who can make better predictions, a video game, Vegas, or me.

With football season still a few weeks away here are some lines to keep an eye on as we lead up to the season:

Teams Early Lines

No. Illinois @

Minnesota -9.0 (Betus.com)

Big 10 basement dwellers Minnesota open up their final domed stadium season against the MAC’s newest basements dwellers Northern Illinois University. At first it would seem like Minnesota would be a pretty easy pick at -9.0, which it could be, but anything over -7.0 things are going to get a little cloudy. One of the first rules that I have in college sports betting is that freshman lose more money for bettors than they do for head coaches. Sadly neither team has many freshmen who are going to have to make an impact early in the season, so that goes out the window. The next key I like to look at is how many seniors are out on the field for either team early in the season. Using some early depth charts and guessing it looks like Minnesota is starting 3 seniors, all on defense and Northern is starting 11 seniors, with 1 being the much maligned by fans and injuries the QB Dan Nicholson (Who is currently battling Freshman Red-Shirt Chandler Harnish for his job). I love taking teams early in the season who have a senior QB with senior WRs, and NIU has just that. Their starting 3 WRs are all seniors with 2 quality backups also being seniors. Not so fast, seniors don’t mean much if they haven’t had any sort of success on the field. The past 4 seasons for the seniors look like this:

Year Team Results

2005 NIU/Minn 7-5 / 7-5

2006 NIU/Minn 7-6 / 6-7 (Both had bowl)

2007 NIU/Minn 2-10 / 1-11

Well that really helped. Both teams have had similar success, so it’s time to look a little bit deeper. In 2007 NIU had 5 losses by 6 points or less, and Minn had 5 as well. Although to be fair Minnesota’s lone win was by 6 points or less. So what did we learn from those numbers? Both teams generally keep games close even when they aren’t winning. How does this happen? In NIU’s case it’s because under old coach Joe Novak they were a running dynasty. They currently lead the nation in consecutive seasons with a 1,000 yard back and last years 1000 yard dynamo Justin Anderson is back. Anderson had over 1,200 yards in what amounted to 10 games. Will new head coach Jerry Kill run the ball like Novak did? Well if you believe what he says he will,

“My philosophy is simple: run the ball, stop the run, build on speed and create mismatches. I know exactly where we are. Like old Willie Nelson said, ‘Take it one day at a time.’ Play the percentages, don’t make mistakes and be accountable. Then keep chipping away at the fundamentals, and one day the big wins should start coming your way.”

What about Minnesota? They return dynamic quarterback Adam Weber who led the team in passing and rushing. A one man band if you will. Here is my problem with one man bands, if your one man has an off day you don’t have anything. At least when you have a group like New Kids on the Block when a guy like Donny is having an off day you still have Joey and Jordan. They also lose 6’5 security blanket Ernie Wheelwright, 66 catches and 9tds, who opened up the field for a guy like Eric Decker. That makes me nervous. If you don’t think everyone is going to roll the coverage to Decker’s side you are crazy.

On defense Minnesota has their highest number of projected senior starters with 3. These 3 seniors are all smack dab in the middle of the D at linebacker. The only real concern I have about their defense is a new starting corner and safety vs. perhaps a senior QB. That isn’t to say that they don’t have talent, it’s just that youth makes me nervous in early games.

The Northern Illinois starting defensive line will consist of at least 3 seniors with MAC defensive MVP Larry English anchoring that line from the defensive end spot. They also feature a senior middle linebacker and 3 senior corners who all figure to see the field at the same time or start. Nothing like having a defensive end put pressure on a sophomore quarterback with senior CBs out there to make plays.

On special teams Minnesota’s kicker is most likely Joel Monroe who went a robust 7/9 on FG attempts. Not too shabby percentage wise, you’d just like to see him have a larger test case. At the kicker spot Northern Illinois has an open competition that will come down to a JUCO transfer vs. a DII transfer who holds records for Winona State. If I had to guess I would say Joel Monroe has the edge over the unknown for NIU kicking on the road in what will for sure be his first D1 game. The only concern that I have for Minnesota’s kick game will be the use of a new long snapper, something to keep in mind.

Here is what this bet comes down to, do you believe in a team that has very few seniors, who aren’t really sure how to win, enough to say that they will win by what will most likely be a spread of 9 or more points? Keep in mind this will be against a team that is senior heavy and runs the ball and keeps games close. Honestly, I think this is a slam dunk for NIU to beat the spread. I don’t know if they will win the game but it will most likely be a 6 or less point game.

Keep in mind NIU was a team that was destroyed by injuries to just about every starter and still managed to keep a lot of games close, Minnesota was a team that started young players at just about every position who are a year older and hopefully better.

My Early Pick: NIU + 8.0 – +11.0

Game #2

Virginia Tech -10 (Betus.com)

East Carolina

This game is kind of a fun match up. We have Virginia Tech, a team that I happen to feel is the most over rated team in the early season polls, and East Carolina, a team coached by Lou Holtz’s son.

Last season East Carolina enjoyed an 8 – 5 record with a bowl win over media darling Boise State. Let’s take a look at how they did:

Right off the bat we realize they played VT close at VT’s place, now they get them at home. The only problem? ECU loses top rusher and fastest guy at the combine Chris Johnson. That’s OK, ECU doesn’t rebuild they reload. His replacement is Dominique Lindsay…oh wait he blew out his knee in practice and won’t be ready for this game VS. VT. How about that? It looks like sophomore Jonathan Williams will carry the load for our friends at ECU. He did have a load of 22 carries…all last season. Is he ready for the load against a Top team in Virginia Tech? I’d say no.

ECU does carry superstar do-everything quarterback Patrick Pinkney who passed for 11 TDs with 4 INTs last season and ran for over 300 yards. He’s a quality QB who proved he could pass when no one was watching him; the problem is what does he do now that everyone has their eyes on him? He makes me nervous, but like I said earlier I like senior QBs in their first games.

As for the receiving core ECU returns top receiver Jamar Bryant, and that’s about it as far as experienced pass catchers go aside from Dwayne Harris (who got a touch in every game last season). I like senior QBs, but not senior QBs who have a lack of weaponry.

The defense for ECU features 5 seniors and 4 juniors, that’s no joke for an opening season defense. When you play the first game of the season you like to have upperclassmen to control the emotions of the team and minimize the mistakes, especially for a home opener against a ranked Virginia Tech squad.

As for special teams ECU returns their punter, kicker and long snapper. I like that kind of party, even more-so vs. the “Beamer Ball” hawks.

For Virginia Tech I think the old saying, “If you have 2 quarterbacks you have none” really fits right here. Tyrod Taylor is explosive, and Sean Glennon is solid. Here is a problem, which do you start, and then do you divide the snaps? I hate 2 quarterbacks more than anything in the world so this does not please me. It didn’t really hurt them last season so who am I to say it won’t work again. Glennon is the senior; I figure give him the nod and let Taylor come off the bench again like he did last season if Glennon keeps making mistakes. It worked last year (to the tune of 11-3), it probably will work again at least for this game (I think both quarterbacks will be more comfortable on the road then at home. Emotion seems to rattle both players.)

At running back it is anyone’s guess. I would guess if Kenny Lewis or Jahre Cheeseman are healthy they would start, but look out for Freshman Red-Shirt Darren Evans to get carries if either or both are out.

At the receiver/tight end positions Virginia Tech is very inexperienced. That makes me nervous with a road opener. Another reason the senior QB will probably get the start, you have to have someone who knows what they are doing in the huddle. Greg Boone is a very talented young man at tight end. He can do it all, and was the MVP of the spring game for what that’s worth. The battle is on going at the receiver spots, but you can bet on whoever is out there not being an experienced guy.

The defensive for Virginia Tech is very talented. On the defensive line they return one starter in Orion Martin at DE and then have 3 slots to fill. I think with Jason Worilds at the other end spot every quarterback that plays VT will have to rush their passes. At linebacker it looks like the Hokies are going to start 2 seniors and a junior, with the junior owning all of the starts out of the group. Macho Harris returns to anchor the all nickname team and Virginia Tech secondary.

On special teams Tech only returns their punter. Not something I love, but they do have a senior kicker who has been around the program but not on the field. A new long snapper and holder could cause even more problems for them early on.

Here is what it comes down to; do you feel like Virginia Tech can reload better than ECU at important skill positions? If you don’t think so, I think you are betting with your heart and not your head. This game isn’t anywhere near as close on paper as NIU vs. Minnesota so I won’t bet like it is. Virginia Tech will win in impressive fashion.

My Early Pick: Virginia Tech -10

Game #3

UTEP

Buffalo -3 (Betus.com)

I had to pick at least one hard one. Anyone can pick NIU with the points or VT giving up the points, but this pick is going to require some skill. I could break it down position by position but I think I’m going to let some stats do the talking this time.

QBs

UTEP Trevor Vittatoe

Buffalo Drew Willy

Trevor Vittatoe has more natural talent, and Drew Willy has paid his dues in Buffalo. It’s a toss up between the two to be honest.

RBs

UTEP Marcus Thomas

Buffalo James Starks

Be very careful when you look at these numbers. James Starks can pile on the yards against very very bad defenses, but not against anyone with any sort of skill. I compare the UTEP defense this year to the Baylor defense last year; they should be able to slow or stop Starks. Thomas is a solid running back who is fairly consistent. I give him the edge in this show down (and he may not even be the starter!).

Look we can compare the positions and stats in this game but that won’t work. Buffalo and UTEP are both questions marks. That’s why we pick the tough games. Buffalo doesn’t have much of a defense; UTEP has an already injured defense. Neither should stop the others offense. Mike Price was rumored to have liked strippers; Turner Gil was awesome at Nebraska. I’m just going to say it, I like Turner Gil, he likes his team, and I like his team at home. As much as I hate to pick 2 MAC schools, especially when one is Buffalo AND giving up points, I think I may do it.

MY EARLY PICK: Buffalo -3

***Remember to check back in a week or so just before the season kicks off on August 28^th for my official picks of these games