Bow Tie Betting Football

I had a little bit a trouble this week picking lines, there are some very interesting match ups out there and some of them are going to be super hard to pick.

That said, I think I was able to find 3 good ones.

Game 1

Colorado – 4

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Toledo +4

Clearly the people are against Colorado.  After a loss to CSU in a game where neither team looked that good Colorado hits the road to beautiful Toledo, Ohio.  Yep, beautiful.  The moral of the story in this game is that the CSU game probably has some bettors in shock, but what they are ignoring is the fact that Toledo is very very bad.  If Colorado sucks, and I’m not debating that, then Toledo REALLY sucks.

That said Colorado has a lot of very talented players and a crazy coach, in my book that equals a win.  Toledo has less talent and a fairly sane coach, that equals a loss.  If you ever get a line where a bottom of the run MAC team is given anything less than 7 points you take the other team, no matter what.  The bottom of the MAC is about as bad as you can be with being the ACC or Sun Belt.  Take Colorado and the fighting Hawkins give Toledo 4 points and call it a win!!!!

Game 2

Syracuse +28.5

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Penn State -28.5

Greg Paulus is a former Duke point guard and a current Syracuse QB, nothing is going to rattle him on the football field.  Seriously, watching him last week you kind of get the vibe out of him that he’s the senior in the freshman biology class who’s taking that class just because he couldn’t get another study hall.  He knows what to do, when to do it, and can probably get through things with his eyes closed.  He isn’t going to get an A in the class but he knows what he has to do to pass and he’s going to do it, his way.  The beauty of having a QB like that is that he probably isn’t ever going to go on Tilt and he’s going to be steady.  Did he make a HUGE mistake at the end of the game vs. Minnesota?  Yep.  Did he make any huge mistakes prior to that?  Not really.  He ran the game like a PG.  The best thing about the week 1 game is that Syracuse found out they have a rough around the edges superstar in Mike Williams.  Sure he had a few drops but he also had 94 yards and a score.  If there is one thing point guards are good at it’s finding the big guys in traffic and Mike Williams is that (6’2 204).

The problem?  They play Penn State.  Penn State IS the best team in the Big 10.  Don’t let the Ohio State every season, pre season, hype fool you.  Penn state may have lost a lot of weapons at WR but still managed to put up 31…against a bad MAC team.  What you have to understand about bad MAC teams is that they aren’t just a little bad, they are real bad, and if you only put up 31 it’s either because you aren’t trying or you suck.  Penn State wasn’t trying to run up the score and I don’t think they will against the Orange either.  That, my friends, is why we take Syracuse.  Give me 28.5, and I’ll bet that Greg Paulus will protect that football.

Game 3

Iowa -6.5

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Iowa State +6.5
This game is a rivalry, and rivalries should be treated like the plague when betting, except in this case.  It’s like the perfect storm hit and you can make one of the easiest bets of the week.  Iowa nearly lost to Northern Iowa, but they didn’t.  Northern Iowa was treating that game like the Super Bowl, and Iowa was treating it like an opening week game vs. a FCS opponent.  Iowa State handled their business vs. North Dakota State and now they are benefiting from a skewed line and bettors on tilt.

The truth is Iowa State isn’t good.  Iowa is good.  Their first week games aren’t showing that, but it’s what the facts are.  When Iowa gives Iowa State less than a touchdown it’s a good thing.

Last season Iowa State put up 5, yep 5, points against Iowa.  I’m thinking they are going to put up MAYBE double that this year?  Iowa has an offense that can score.  Sure they lost a TON from last season but Stanzi to Moeaki is going to be a combo that kills Iowa State.

This is a no brainer.  Take Iowa and give the 6.5.

Come back on Monday and let’s see how we did!

Here are my picks for Week 2:

Give me Ball State in this one.  They have a great quarterback, great receivers and Navy can’t stop a passing game.  I love they style of football Navy runs on offense, it more than compensates for the challenges they have recruiting athletes to a service academy.  The problem is that you can’t cover up your lack of athletes on defense if you are playing against a team that can pass like Ball State.  I don’t think this is going to be a laugher, but Ball State should have the spread in hand by the 4th quarter.

My pick in this one is going to be West Virginia.  The nice thing about this line is that it will probably creep closer to ECU as the game time gets closer thanks to our friends at ESPN calling ECU the second coming.  Yep, ESPN doesn’t always employ the brightest bulbs on the Christmas tree, but they are good talkers.  And darnit, I thank them for trying to convince the world that West Virginia is going to be in trouble.  Goodness knows some people treat ESPN like they are THE WORD on sports, well they aren’t.  WVU destroys ECU in this one.  I know WVU’s new head coach isn’t exactly a proven guy, but Pat White is.

I think this is an interesting game, and normally I hate to bet games that I think are going to be interesting, but this line is too large to think that Miami can’t keep it within 3 TDs.  Even if we are talking about them cutting the line down in garbage time when no one is really watching.  I’ll take Miami in this one, Florida’s O looked terrible vs. HAWAII last week…that’s right Hawaii, that mighty defensive school.  Take Miami and the points, I feel pretty OK with that pick.

I like NIU in this game.  NIU has seemingly found a quarterback, and all they really need is to get their running game in line and they should be just fine.  WMU has never impressed me, and NIU did impress me.  I guess that’s what I am basing this pick on.  Being impressed with what you see on the field should be the only reason you make a bet.  I think NIU will keep the game within a TD, it should be close throughout the game though.

Come back tomorrow for the computer picks!

I know it’s only Tuesday, a little too early for me to make my offical picks for the week, but here are some lines I am watching that you should probably keep an eye on too!

This is a game I really find interesting.  Ball State is going to be one of the top teams in a very strong MAC conference this season, and Navy walked all over Townson.  Navy is a fun team to watch for their ability to kick it old school and run the option.  Ball State is a fun team to watch because they have amazing WRs and a dynamic quarterback.  A real contrast, but early on I think this line is too low and Ball State can win by at least 10.

Remember when I said keep an eye on ECU, the lines makers will think fans are dumb enough to believe that this team is more legit than Virgina Tech was overrated?  Guess what, it just happened.  WVU is a legit team, Pat White is an amazing quarterback and he has some speed around him.  ECU beat a bad Virgina Tech team…barely.  All I have to say about this line is Pat White > Sean Glennon

Here is a game that intrigues me.  I’m not telling anyone to bet it, I’m just saying keep an eye on it.  Miami is newly talented, they have had great recruiting classes and those guys are starting to see the field.  Florida is insane.  They have talent everywhere, but still, 21.5 points?  I don’t know if the U is still down as low as they have been.  I think Miami is much improved with a good coach who should keep the game closer than 22 points.  At this point I’m leaning toward making this game an official pick.

Interesting match up again.  I like NIU, I said they are a team that needs to be watched for betting purposes.  WMU isn’t supposed to do anything in the MAC west, but neither is NIU.  So explain how this line is creeping out past 6 points?  I don’t pick winners, I just pick vs. the spread and NIU always keeps games close.  In fact a decimated and bad NIU team kept this game close last year against a much better WMU squad.  I expcted NIU to cover, maybe win, but I don’t really care about W or L.

Those are the games I’m keeping my eye on for right now.  There are some others that may step in and replace them for my final picks, but as of right now I like the 4 I have.  I also suggest watching the line of Standford @ ASU.  Check back Thursday for my final weekend selections!  (And the computer sim picks as well).