Bow Tie Betting Football

Last week I was 2-1 and a lightning strike away from being 3-0.  That lightning strike was just the inspiration that Bufflalo needed to keep it within 8 – anytime you are playing not to get fried you are playing the way God intended.

I’ll take a 2-1 week every week, as should you, it means profit, and profit is what we like!

Game 1

LA Tech +10.5

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Nevada RENO -10.5

A few things about this game jump out at me right away, Nevada Reno is really gung-ho about making everyone say the “Reno” AND they are 1-3.  I’m not really sure which of those 2 things bugs me more.  Nevada should in theory be better than their 1-3 record, and I always thought they were better than someone who tried to give themselves a nickname.  Sure “Reno” isn’t a nickname – but that isn’t the point here.  The point is that they have just disappointed me on 2 levels.

In a serious look at Reno – I like the squad, hate the city, and the record.  They’ve lost to Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Missouri.  Their win was against a UNLV squad that looked like it didn’t want to be on the field with their “Rival”.  The weirdest thing about that game is that UNLV wasn’t as bad as they played on the field that day.  Which also implies that Reno isn’t as good as they played on the field that day.  The score was 63 – 28, however if we break it down it wasn’t really THAT bad of a game.  It was 21-21 at halftime and 35-28 to start the 4th.  It’s just when you let 28 points up in the 4th quarter generally things aren’t going to go as well as you want.

In a look at LA Tech I’ve come to the conclusion that I like their team.  They were only down 13-10 at half vs. a pretty darn good Auburn squad and ony down 14-18 going into the 4th against a VERY good Navy team.  Navy plays everyone hard and there is no shame in losing to them.  Beating Hawaii by a score of 27-6 last week was VERY impressive.  It’s hard to beat Hawaii, let alone hold them to 6 points.  I like LA Tech’s D enough to think that they can keep this one within 10.5.  Take LA Tech and the points tonight.

Game 2

Iowa State + 19

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Kansas – 19

Can someone explain to me what Kansas has done to earn this line?  Beat up UTEP and Duke?  If that’s what it takes to be a 19 point favorite over a conference foe then I think my junior high squad had a pretty decent chance of being a 19 point favorite over Iowa State.

The truth is that Kansas has a decent team.  They aren’t great but the beauty of this line is that Kansas is undefeated in the early part of the season after playing a group of mighty foes.  Heck they beat Northern Colorado – isn’t Northern Colorado the school that had one punter try to kill another punter for playing time?  If the competition is that fierce for the PUNTER spot can you imagine what the other starters had to do to win their spots?  Man…great job Kansas.

Iowa State is 3-2 and their only “bad” loss was a 35-3 pounding from Iowa, but let’s break that loss down.  Iowa is undefeated, knocked off Penn State, and historically OWNS Iowa State.  I’m not sure why there is much surprise that Iowa State couldn’t get their act together for that game.  Iowa State also lost to Kansas State – by a point.  That’s not an awful loss, an awful loss would be to lose to them by like 21.  The fact of the matter is Iowa State cannot play at home, I think that is in part due to the fact that their fans don’t like them very much.  I like Iowa State on the road more than I like them at home.  19 points was just enough to get me to jump on that bandwagon.

Game 3

UCONN +6.5

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Pitt -6.5

I think there is one rule when you bet on the stach, it’s that you keep riding it when it’s hot.  And coach Dave has it going for Pitt.

The best part of this line is that when I looked at UCONN I saw that they are a pretty bad team, with some questionable wins that helped the betting public justify giving them only 6.5.  They beat Ohio, Baylor, and Rhode Island.  Rhode Island hasn’t been good at anything since Lamar Odom promised his grandmother that he would stay in school…then left after his freshman year.  We’ll call it the curse of Lamar’s grandma.  I’m not really sure there is anything nice I can say about UCONN this season.  I don’t like teams that use 2 QBs.  I don’t like teams that rotate running backs AND quarterbacks even more!  And that’s UCONN.  Look, they suck and I’m not sure playing bad non-conference teams should have changed anyone’s mind about that.

Pittsburgh, where to start?  Coach Dave, as I call him…being from Chicago and watching him do nothing with the Bears makes me feel like Dave and I grew real close during his press conferences when he kept telling everyone that all the pieces were in place…well then what the heck happened Dave?  Do you suck at Puzzles or something and have no idea what the picture is supposed to look like so you just throw shit all over?!?!  Damnit Dave…Damnit…anyway what I think I’m trying to say is that Coach Dave is a better college coach than pro coach and he should get some props.  He is a pretty good recruiter and even though he lost a great back he picked up another one in Dion Lewis.  Dion should have a pretty good game against UCONN – hell the Rhode Island back went for 21 yards against them, that had to be a career, if not school, record.  Take Pitt…enjoy the money.

Normally, I would do a week 6 recap here, and talk about how I just barely missed 1 or 2 games, but not this week.

No, this week I was able to pull off what I should have been doing all year, the perfect mark 4-0 (really 5-0 if you pick the game I did in the first blog of this week.  For some reason I left the Cinncy game off the final picks).

Oregon State did the job, sure they lost the game but they lost close, that is all you can really ask from a team of young men who just came off the biggest upset of the college football season.  They will be a good team in a season or so, keep an eye on them.

Northern Illinois is a team I really felt bad for this week.  Sure they beat the spread and gave me a perfect mark on the week, but they should have beaten Tennessee.  Northern Illinois has by far the best defense in the MAC and their offense has some skill players.  They only problem they run into is that they can’t keep a quarterback healthy.

How good is North Carolina?  Seriously, because I have no idea.  They play out of their mind sometimes and just destroy good teams, then they have some real stinkers to mix in.  I can’t really figure them out.  What I do know is that UConn is not a good team, I’ve been saying that all year and their ranking in the top 25 was a joke (to be honest I didn’t even know they were ranked until I was watching the game).

South Carolina beat Ole Miss.  Normally that’s a non-story, but Ole Miss just beat Florida.  Here is the thing guys, Ole Miss was overrated because they beat a team that was even more overrated than themselves in Florida.  The Ol Ball Coach has a bad team, but they aren’t worse than Ole miss, and they can play D.  Sometimes when betting on games all you need is a team that can always play close, they can be 0-5 in the real world for all you care.  The only thing you should focus on is their record ATS.

On that note, my game ball for this week goes to Northern Illinois.  A perfect 5-0 record against the spread this season, and they were the ones who put the icing on my perfect week!  Great game, ok coaching, big win.

And now ladies and gentlemen the moment you were waiting for…You want to see the picture I put up of some hot chick to show you what a perfect week would be like.  I know I’ve been saying all along that a perfect week is like Christina Aguilera, and normally it would be, but this week I’m going another route.

Christina Aguilera normally is pretty awesome, but she just had a kid...she really can't represent a perfect week anymore...

So what do I do now.  Who can I possibly put into this post to show what perfect looks like?!?!?!

I know just the person!

Mr Perfect. That is me for this week, I think I should have my own trading card.

Check back tomorrow for my early picks for the week!

DMD

Here are my official picks for this week of the college football season:

Oregon State University +11.5

Utah -11.5

I like OSU, I like the Rogers’, but I just can’t help but feel a let down coming on.  A 12 point let down?  I’m not sure, so that’s why I’m going to take OSU.  Utah is a solid squad, but didn’t really “handle” Michigan the way they should have if they were going to beat up on BCS teams.  I think Oregon State has some confidence, they are a young squad and swagger is a good thing, so I’m going to take them in this bet.  Utah is a good team, just not 12 points better than OSU.

I’m going to DROP Cinci at Marshall, why?  Because I don’t really get a good feeling about this game either way.  I’m going to replace it with:

Northern Illinois +15.5

Tennessee -15.5

I’m taking the Huskies and here is why:  They are 4-0 ATS this season, MAC schools always play UP to the level of their opponent and Tennessee is about to have a mutiny in the locker room.  Need I say more?  Yeah I will, I don’t like rotating 2 quarterbacks for Tennessee, it may work if you have a runner with a straight drop back guy, but it won’t work when you have 2 QBs who are about the same.  The only thing this rotation will accomplish is killing whatever rhythm the QB has.  Tennessee is in bad shape right now, they will probably win this game, but I don’t think they are going to win by 16.

Connecticut +7

North Carolina -7

I still love UNC in this one, they have a young athletic team, and UCONN has a not so athletic team.  Pretty simple really.  I like the way UNC runs their offense with Sexon at the helm, they hit their big play guys and watch them work.  It’s a simple scheme that could only come from the mind of John Shoop after watching it fail miserably in the NFL.

South Carolina  +2.5

Ole Miss  -2.5

Ole Miss beat Florida, they have a great coach, and a QB who can make a case that he probably should be starting at Texas (if Colt wasn’t around of course).  The only thing they don’t have is experience being a winner and South Carolina will expose that.  South Carolina has a great defense, a terrible offense and a crazy coach.  I like that combination.  Give me South Carolina and the 2.5 please!

So that’s the pick summary for this week.  The Machine should be ready to rock tomorrow, so I’ll have the computer sim picks posted.  One thing to note, the computer doesn’t make any sort of “substitutions” so when Sexon came in for Paulus due to poor play the computer couldn’t make that decision during it’s game, hence the reason it assumed UNC was going to lose to Miami.  The Machine likes Sexon in Shoop’s offense, and so do I.

Oregon State University +11.5

Utah -11.5

This game is Thursday, so keep your eye on it.  It can really go 2 ways, either OSU has a major let down after beating USC, or their young team is very confident and excited to play another “good” team.  I really like the young players on OSU, I don’t love their QB, but what can you do?

Cincinnati -3.5

Marshall +3.5

Cincinnati is going to win this game, Marshall isn’t that great of a squad, in fact they are kind of a bad team.  I like Cincinnati, I don’t like how they lose a QB every quarter, but I like the rest of their squad.  While Cincinnati may not be world beaters, they don’t have to be vs. Marshall.  But watch this line, make sure it doesn’t move too far out past 3 or 4 points.

Connecticut +7

North Carolina -7

North Carolina is a solid team, there is no doubt about that.  Connecticut is a team that I do not like very much this season, it’s as simple as that.  Keep an eye on this game, North Carolina is a good bet as long as it doesn’t get past 10.

South Carolina  +2.5

Ole Miss  -2.5

I am thinking about an Ole MIss let down.  That’s about the only reason I’m watching this game, that and South Carolina can always keep games close.  They may not score much, but they will keep it close as an underdog.

Those are just games I’m keeping an eye on, I’ll let you know official picks a little later on in the week.