Bow Tie Betting Football

Last week I went 1-2…and you know what REALLY pisses me off about last week?  I should have at least been 2-1.  OK  LA Tech got smoked and probably couldn’t win in a million tries, HOWEVER, Coach Wanny and the Panthers SHOULD have scored from the 1 inch line…but had to settle for a FG.  I hate Wanny, and the Panthers ALMOST as much as I hate watching a Gummi Bear sing and dance:

Gummy Bear

Let’s move on to this week’s picks:

Game 1

Bowling Green -3

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Ball State + 3

I think if there is one thing we can say about the betting public it’s that they don’t really care too much about MAC games – this is where some advantages can be found.  Those who don’t really know too much about Ball State probably remember last years team that almost went undefeated…by losing 2 games.  Can they really be that bad just a few months removed from being beat down in a bowl game?

Yes.  They are probably the worst team in the MAC, and that’s saying a lot considering Eastern Michigan is in that conference.  The fact is that they played a few “good” teams close.  What do I mean by “good” teams?  I mean Toledo and Temple.  And if you’re like me you’re probably thinking those teams aren’t good.  You’d be right.  However compared to Ball State it should have been like the Dallas Cowboys playing the Kansas City Chiefs…er….never mind.

The point is you can’t think Ball State is a good team because they played teams that should have pounded them fairly close.  Those teams that should have pounded them are bad too!  Just because they are less bad doesn’t mean that some of the tendencies that qualify them as bad won’t show up during the game – for example the fact Toledo doesn’t send any players out there on D.  They figure the longer their D is out there the less time their O has to catch up.  Take Bowling Green, because Ball State is very, very bad.

Game 2

CMU -7

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WMU + 7

Let’s stick with the MAC theme this week, I kind of like it.  Here is my theory on this game WMU is getting a slight boost in the line due to the fact they beat down Toledo last week.  However if you read my pick before this you would know that I happen to think that Toledo is a terrible team.

So is WMU as good as they seem to be vs. Toledo?  No.  Are they as bad as they appeared to be vs. NIU?  No.  The fact is that Toledo’s defense has a way of making everyone look good the same way that NIU’s defense has a way of making you look bad.  The fact is the WMU is probably the 3rd best team in the MAC West and CMU is the #1 team in the MAC West.  If we just looked at that we would know that CMU will probably win this game.

The thing that you have to keep in mind here is that while CMU is on the road it should not have any affect on the spread.  CMU does not have many issues when they travel IN STATE for games this season (Michigan State can tell you.)  CMU is a very good football team that probably won’ t be challenged much during their MAC schedule, this game is a great chance for them to feel the need to get fired up and put a hurting on a squad.  WMU will try to put up a good fight but…won’t.  Take CMU, be happy.

Game 3

Northern Illinois University -7

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Toledo + 7

OK, game 3 and we are staying MAC.  NIU is the #2 team in the MAC west in my opinion, and Toledo isn’t very good.  That was my baseline for this pick, then I stared to do some research.

NIU runs their offense out of a spread formation, however unlike 99% of the spread teams out there they spread you out to run the ball.  They have a play maker in QB Chandler Harnish and one of the best unknown backs in the country in Chad Spann (who is #2 in the nation in TDs and #2 on the NIU depth chart.)  Any time you can have the #2 TD scoring running back in the country as your back up your probably have some pretty good depth at that spot.  A 2 headed monster is never a bad thing when you talk about a running game in the midwest.  These October/November games are going to start getting cold and running the ball is a great way to not have to worry about wind/rain/snow/cold.

The weather in Toledo tomorrow should be some early rain showers followed by 40 degree HEAT by kickoff.  If there was ever a time to have a running team this would be it.

Toledo is not with out it’s charm.  They are a high power offense that can score on just about every play – however their starting QB will probably end up being freshman Austin Dantin – who played great vs. WMU after starting QB Alex Opelt went down with an injury.  The only problem?  Well Austin lit the skies ablaze AFTER WMU took a commanding lead and didn’t seem interested in the game anymore.  On the other side of the ball I have yet to find any solid data that Toledo sends anyone else out on defense other than Barry Church.

Here’s the x-factor, historically Toledo has owned NIU.  That’s why the line is at 7.  Up until last year NIU couldn’t win against Toledo if they had the Dallas Cowboys offensive line…well I don’t think any team could.  Toledo has had NIU’s number.  The problem?  Toledo has a new coach.  NIU has very young starters who don’t really know too much of the Toledo dominance over NIU.  Heck even the NIU seniors are playing this game to even up the series with Toledo over their career.   In fact from 2005 – 2008 the series is tied at 2-2 this would be the rubber match.  I do believe that historical dominance is not something you can ignore, but I do feel that if you break down the numbers and recent history is against the trend then don’t buy into the trend.  Take NIU, and then go out and buy drinks for the whole bar with your winnings.

How did “The Machine” pick this week?  Let’s find out!

Michigan State over Northwestern.  The Machine doesn’t believe in Northwestern or the early hype.  A small line of 1.5 to 2.5 is too small to pass up.  On a side note the Machine loves Ringer.  This is my favorite game of the week, I just have that feeling that MSU is a real good team and Northwestern’s fans don’t care that Northwestern is at home.

Notre Dame over UNC…wow.  I’m suprised because I know for a fact that the Machine loved UNC’s offense with Sexson and didn’t seem to care for Notre Dame.  The nice thing is that the Machine can in fact learn and DOES take other games into account, which still does not explain to me why Notre Dame is picked to win.  To be fair I know the Machine does take the growth of Jimmy Clausen into account, and believes that there is more talent on ND, but UNC is playing better. So I guess the machine takes talent over how a team is playing.

NIU over Miami (OH).  This is an easy one according to the machine, the Northern Illinois has the best defense in the MAC and Miami (OH) kind of stinks.  One thing to note is that Chandler Harnish should be healthy for this one for NIU, but DeMarcus Grady WILL get the start at QB.  DeMarcus just runs, the machine seems to feel that DeMarcus will put up enough yards and points vs. a bad Miami team.

Nebraska over Texas Tech, barely.  This is the closest of all the sims.  I don’t know how to feel, the 20.5 spread is a good thing, but the last time the Machine and I agreed so much it was a rough week for everyone.  I’ll agree though, the Nebraska D should be good enough this week to pull it out after a rough week last week.

Remember all of the machine’s picks are ATS.

Good Luck out there this week!

DMD

After a perfect week, one always runs the risk of trying to hard in the sequel.  It happens all the times in sports betting and in the world of movies.  I mean how many times have you gone out and seen a sequel to a great movie and thought “Why the heck didn’t they just keep the formula the same?”  That’s exactly the risk I run here after a perfect week, I even caught myself trying to be too perfect with some crazy picks.  So I took a step back, grabbed a smoothie and went at it again and I think I’m happy with these 4.

Michigan State -1.5

Northwestern    +1.5

This is an easy pick I ignored my first time through.  One of the things I like to pride my betting on is that I ignore the hype.  Northwestern is NOT a good team.  They are undefeated, but look at who they played!  Syracuse, Duke, Ohio, and Iowa are the only FBS teams they have beat this season.  Now, with that said you can only beat who you play.  Sadly this time they have beaten very bad teams and are now playing a very mean MSU team who will not overlook them because of their perfect 5-0 mark.  This game has big time BIG 10 implications, I expect both teams to play hard, and it will be a lot closer than I would normally think, but MSU wins by AT LEAST a field goal.

Notre Dame +7.5

North Carolina -7.5

A very strange game for me to pick.  Normally I wouldn’t think much of a UNC squad that has John Shoop at the helm of the offense, but this season they have done pretty well for me.  They have beaten Miami, so clearly they have speed, the only question I have about them is if they can show up as a favorite at home and BEAT ND.  Notre Dame is not a good team this season, they have beaten bad teams and got trounced by the one decent team on their schedule.  They won’t really be able to do too much against UNC because of the afore mentioned speed on the D.  It will be a closer game, but 10 points should be at least the margin UNC wins by in this one.  Speed kills.

Miami Ohio +11

Northern Illinois -11

You ever hear the phrase “Stay with who took you to the dance”?  Well that’s the case here, NIU is perfect against the spread this season and I really don’t see it stopping here.  NIU has the best D in the MAC and Miami Ohio is struggling a little bit this season.  You do have to worry about NIU and their QB situation, it looks like it’s going to be 3rd string QB DeMarcus Grady to get the start.  DeMarcus is a team leader in rushing and rushing TDs so he should do just fine leading the Huskies against the relatively soft Redhawks.  Huskies by at least 14.

Nebraska +20.5

Texas Tech -20.5

Why?  Why not?  Texas Tech is a great team, and they sure can put up some points, but maybe, just maybe Nebraska can slow them down and put a few scores on the board and keep it within 20.5.  This isn’t a bet that I normally make, but I fee it’s safe enough…You can take this game OR North Texas OVER UL Layfayette.  In fact I’d probably take both.  I know North Texas is supposed to be bad, but is ULL ever supposed to be good?  And by good I mean 21.5 better than North Texas.  Take Nebraska, Take NT.

Ok, those are my picks for this week.  The Machine makes his triumphant return tomorrow, so we shall see what the computer sim seems to think of my predictions.  Good luck out there!