Bow Tie Betting Football

Last week:  2-1

Going 2-1 is never bad, it means we won money.  You hate to have your efforts for a 3-0 day be dashed on the last game, but what can you do?  NIU blew their chances to put Toledo away and ended up losing the game outright.  Well done NIU, well done.

Game 1

Georgia Tech -6

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Virginia +6

Let’s look at this line like mature adults, Georgia Tech is 6-1, the only team they lost to is Miami.  Virginia is 3-3 and lost to William and Mary.  Do I need to go on?  No.  But I will.

Virgina is on a 3 game “hot” streak.  Their wins are against the traditional powerhouses of Indiana, Maryland, and North Carolina.  So what if the best record out of the bunch is 4-3?  They are all great teams.  Honestly, they aren’t great, they’re terrible teams who have played even worse teams to get them the 4-3 records.  Let’s be fair here, Virginia does have an OK QB – and by OK I mean he throws as many TDs as INTs – when you’re Virginia you’ll take that.  The truth is they aren’t great/good/average at anything.  They win games when other teams TRY to give them the win, and even then it’s not a sure thing.

Georgia Tech 6-1, triple option, power run game, and in this game no need to pass.  It’s perfect really.  The way Virginia wins games is when other teams hand them the ball – well when you run the triple option it reduces at least one avenue of turnover, the INT.  Does Georgia Tech still fumble?  Yep.  When you run it as much as they do you are bound to fumble the ball a few times over the course of the season, however Virginia doesn’t have the players to stop the triple option attack for a full 4 quarters.  If this line was around 10 maybe it would be a question, but when it’s less than a touchdown you thank the lines makers and move on.  Take GT, give the points, and buy yourself a nice lunch before the evening games.

Game 2

LA Tech +1

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Utah State -1

Let me ask you something, when is the last time that you ever said to yourself “Utah State is only giving up ___ number of points?!?!  That’s a gift!”  If you’re like me, and the rest of the world, the answer to that question is never.

Utah State is 1-5, so they have that going for them…their win?  Well it was a barn-burning victory over the vaunted squad from South Utah.  When State plays South you throw out the records, cause both squads want a win.   Let me stop right here and be honest, I can’t find anything nice to say about Utah State.  I just can’t.  I want to find a stat that helps me understand why they are favored but I can’t.  I mean I looked at their most recent common opponent in New Mexico State.  Utah State lost by a score of 20-17 and LA Tech won by a score of 45-7.  The only thing that it could possibly be is that Utah State played Nevada VERY close last week.  They only lost by 3 points.  Which is some kind of miracle.

LA Tech has a good team.  They aren’t great, but they will win this game.  So because they will win this game the 1 point line is kind of a joke.  I would tell you to take LA Tech and the money line but there isn’t one posted yet.  So if you can get in on it, take the money line, if you can’t take the point.  Either way LA Tech wins this game.

Game 3

Idaho +15.5

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Nevada

If you don’t pay attention to college football you may be kind of confused by this pick.  Idaho is 6-1, and Nevada is 3-3.  both teams are running through their WAC foes with little resistance.  So if anything this should be a close game, but no not the way the lines makers see it.

Nevada has one win that I would consider nice, they pounded LA Tech.  Outside of that their 2 wins were against lesser foes, and one lesser foe they let stay in the game (Utah State.)  They lost to some fairly poor squads too, I don’t want to call anyone out…COLORADO STATE…but some teams that Nevada lost to you have to wonder how they lost to that Junior High team?  Nevada SHOULD be good.  They really should be.  They have a host of great running backs, the returning WAC player of the year, everything shouts GOOD TEAM!  But they just aren’t.  Something is wrong this year.  I don’t know if they have locker room issues, or if things got to their ego, but they aren’t the team they should be.  It doesn’t look to me like they are going to snap out of anything any time soon.

Idaho, the best kept secret in NCAA football.  I’m not kidding when I say this, they have an NFL QB that no one even talks about!  Nathan Enderle is a Junior QB with the size and arm strength that would have NFL scouts and ESPN jerks creating a ton of hype IF he played somewhere that was not the WAC, more specifically Idaho.  Enderle is 6’5 227 and just starting to figure things out on the field this year.  It isn’t often that you can say Idaho has an NFL anything, and to call him a high round draft pick in 2011 may seem insane, but I’m telling you he will be.  This Nevada game is going to be his coming out party, the funny thing is with the line it doesn’t even have to be.  They are 15.5 point dogs.  All he has to do is not make it his meltdown party and everything will be fine.

One thing that I’ve found is that teams that aren’t used to winning, that have a big game, usually play a little bit better on the road.  I don’t know why – and I don’t have a ton of stats to back me up, I’m just saying Idaho will do just fine.  I’d be tempted to take the money line on this one too, but because we don’t do that here I’m just telling you take 15.5 points and be happy the betting gods smiled on oyu.

Last week was a rough one on everyone for a multitude of reasons, #1 being that I went 2-2.  The other reason being that it seems as if “The Machine” everyone’s favorite football picking computer + program is going to be down for what appears to be 2 weeks.  It burned up on me, but it can be saved, it’s just going to cost around $50 and 2 weeks time for parts.

Oh well, I can accept losing the Machine, it wasn’t like he was pulling his weight anyway.

As for last week, I kind of had that feeling that there was going to be a let down after a perfect week, I suppose it was something inside my head that tried to pick the perfect game instead of picking what felt right.  There wasn’t really much I could do about it.

A 2-2 week is like…well…it’s like Traci Bingham…After a good time you think you are making an upgrade, but after it’s over you realize that it’s just so-so.  We’ve all been there, and afterwards we all think back to what we had before and realize how much better it was…

Hi, I'm Traci Bingham, I seem like a good idea at the time, but you'll realize after I'm just your average run of the mill fame whore.

I like Traci Bingham, and she’s better than a lot of alternatives, but let’s try to not go there again this week, it can be bad for the pocketbook.

This week here are my picks:

Wake Forest -2

Maryland +2

Maryland hasn’t been the same since having it handed them in the opening game in 2003 against a MAC opponent.  That Maryland team was loaded with NFLers and broke a lot of hearts.  It’s with that in mind that I am going to pick Wake.  I like Riley Skinner, I like the way Wake manages and plays their game.  I think Maryland is much improved and on their way up in the ACC, but they just aren’t there yet.

Miami (FL) -3.5

Duke +3.5

I gotta tell you, when I first saw this line I thought everyone was insane!  There is no way this line should be this close, but then I began to break it down and yeah…this line is about where it should be.  Miami has a very flawed team, there is no doubt talent, but they just don’t seem to know how to play smart football, or winning football for that matter.  Duke is a team on the rise, they aren’t bowl worthy yet, but they will be bowling in a few short seasons.  The problem is this game isn’t played in the future, it’s being played right now.  Miami has enough natural talent to beat this young upstart, but they won’t for long.  Miami will probably take it by 4.

Purdue +4

Northwestern -4

What did we learn last week?  Well I didn’t learn anything, but if you read my blog maybe you finally learned that Northwestern isn’t a good football team.  They are an overhyped bunch that doesn’t really have that much talent.  They beat a lot of bad team, and Purude MAY be considered a bad team.  So why do I pick Purdue then?  I still think Painter can lead a team, I feel like Kory Sheets is a good football player, and I feel like Greg “Don’t Call me Kyle” Orton is one of the best recievers no one knows.  It’s those 3 guys who are going to keep Purdue within 4, heck Purdue may even boiler up and win.  Take Purude and the points.

Western Michigan -2

Central Michigan +2

This is a tough one, Dan LeFevour,  CMU QB and superstar, is hurt.  Western Michigan has been catching quite a few breaks playing NIU who lost their QB on the first series and now CMU down a QB.  Western is not that good of a team, but they are lucky.  They barely beat NIU while at home, so I don’t think they will beat a better CMU team in a rivalry game on the road.  Give me CMU, but this one will make me nervous till the end.

Toledo +8

Northern Illinois -8

I like Northern Illinois in this one.  They their starting QB coming back for the first time since he was hurt in the Western Michigan game as a starter.  I like that.  I like that Toledo is going to be “without” some starters (and by without I mean some guys won’t start after being arrested, but they will play.  So they are going to miss what 1 play?  Way to put a foot down Toledo.)  I like NIU having a homecoming game vs a team that beat them 70-21 last season.  I like NIU’s coach Jerry Kill, he’s a firery guy that I don’t think will let his team forget what happened last season.  Me’Co Brown, NIU’s Freshman Running Back, is a star waiting to shine and what better time than homecoming vs. a rival?  NIU takes it easily, Toledo is caught celebrating (oh wait they already were) and loses big time.
Those are the picks for this week (yeah I picked 5 games…let’s call it the Traci factor…I don’t want to do it again so soon after doing it last week).

DMD