LA Techは良いチームを持っている彼らは素晴らしいことですが、彼らはこのゲームに勝つだろう。彼らは1ポイントの行は冗談の一種であるこの試合に勝つので、私は希望とお金の行がラ技術を取るように指示1つは、まだ投稿しました。あなたは上で得ることができる場合は、ポイントを取ることがことができれば、お金の路線を取る。いずれにせよ、LA Techはこのゲームに勝つ。
はい。彼らは、おそらくMACの最悪のチームであり、その多くはイースタンミシガンを考慮言っているこの会議です。という事実は、彼らがいくつかの"良い"チームに近い再生されます。私が"良い"チームとは?私はmean Toledo and Temple. And if you're like me you're probably thinking those teams aren't good. You'd be right. However compared to Ball State it should have been like the Dallas Cowboys playing the Kansas City Chiefs…er ….never mind.
The point is you can't think Ball State is a good team because they played teams that should have pounded them fairly close. Those teams that should have pounded them are bad too! Just because they are less bad doesn't mean that some of the tendencies that qualify them as bad won't show up during the game – for example the fact Toledo doesn't send any players out there on D. They figure the longer their D is out there the less time their O has to catch up. Take Bowling Green, because Ball State is very, very bad.
Game 2
CMU -7
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WMU + 7
Let's stick with the MAC theme this week, I kind of like it. Here is my theory on this game WMU is getting a slight boost in the line due to the fact they beat down Toledo last week. However if you read my pick before this you would know that I happen to think that Toledo is a terrible team.
So is WMU as good as they seem to be vs. Toledo? No. Are they as bad as they appeared to be vs. NIU? No. The fact is that Toledo's defense has a way of making everyone look good the same way that NIU's defense has a way of making you look bad. The fact is the WMU is probably the 3rd best team in the MAC West and CMU is the #1 team in the MAC West. If we just looked at that we would know that CMU will probably win this game.
The thing that you have to keep in mind here is that while CMU is on the road it should not have any affect on the spread. CMU does not have many issues when they travel IN STATE for games this season (Michigan State can tell you.) CMU is a very good football team that probably won' t be challenged much during their MAC schedule, this game is a great chance for them to feel the need to get fired up and put a hurting on a squad. WMU will try to put up a good fight but…won't. Take CMU, be happy.
Game 3
Northern Illinois University -7
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Toledo + 7
OK, game 3 and we are staying MAC. NIU is the #2 team in the MAC west in my opinion, and Toledo isn't very good. That was my baseline for this pick, then I stared to do some research.
NIU runs their offense out of a spread formation, however unlike 99% of the spread teams out there they spread you out to run the ball. They have a play maker in QB Chandler Harnish and one of the best unknown backs in the country in Chad Spann (who is #2 in the nation in TDs and #2 on the NIU depth chart.) Any time you can have the #2 TD scoring running back in the country as your back up your probably have some pretty good depth at that spot. A 2 headed monster is never a bad thing when you talk about a running game in the midwest. These October/November games are going to start getting cold and running the ball is a great way to not have to worry about wind/rain/snow/cold.
The weather in Toledo tomorrow should be some early rain showers followed by 40 degree HEAT by kickoff. If there was ever a time to have a running team this would be it.
Toledo is not with out it's charm. They are a high power offense that can score on just about every play – however their starting QB will probably end up being freshman Austin Dantin – who played great vs. WMU after starting QB Alex Opelt went down with an injury. The only problem? Well Austin lit the skies ablaze AFTER WMU took a commanding lead and didn't seem interested in the game anymore. On the other side of the ball I have yet to find any solid data that Toledo sends anyone else out on defense other than Barry Church.
Here's the x-factor, historically Toledo has owned NIU. That's why the line is at 7. Up until last year NIU couldn't win against Toledo if they had the Dallas Cowboys offensive line…well I don't think any team could. Toledo has had NIU's number. The problem? Toledo has a new coach. NIU has very young starters who don't really know too much of the Toledo dominance over NIU. Heck even the NIU seniors are playing this game to even up the series with Toledo over their career. In fact from 2005 – 2008 the series is tied at 2-2 this would be the rubber match. I do believe that historical dominance is not something you can ignore, but I do feel that if you break down the numbers and recent history is against the trend then don't buy into the trend. Take NIU, and then go out and buy drinks for the whole bar with your winnings.
Last week I was 2-1 and a lightning strike away from being 3-0. That lightning strike was just the inspiration that Bufflalo needed to keep it within 8 – anytime you are playing not to get fried you are playing the way God intended.
I'll take a 2-1 week every week, as should you, it means profit, and profit is what we like!
Game 1
LA Tech +10.5
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Nevada RENO -10.5
A few things about this game jump out at me right away, Nevada Reno is really gung-ho about making everyone say the “Reno” AND they are 1-3. I'm not really sure which of those 2 things bugs me more. Nevada should in theory be better than their 1-3 record, and I always thought they were better than someone who tried to give themselves a nickname. Sure “Reno” isn'ta nickname – but that isn't the point here. The point is that they have just disappointed me on 2 levels.
In a serious look at Reno – I like the squad, hate the city, and the record. They've lost to Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Missouri. Their win was against a UNLV squad that looked like it didn't want to be on the field with their “Rival”. The weirdest thing about that game is that UNLV wasn't as bad as they played on the field that day. Which also implies that Reno isn't as good as they played on the field that day. The score was 63 – 28, however if we break it down it wasn't really THAT bad of a game. It was 21-21 at halftime and 35-28 to start the 4th. It's just when you let 28 points up in the 4th quarter generally things aren't going to go as well as you want.
In a look at LA Tech I've come to the conclusion that I like their team. They were only down 13-10 at half vs. a pretty darn good Auburn squad and ony down 14-18 going into the 4th against a VERY good Navy team. Navy plays everyone hard and there is no shame in losing to them. Beating Hawaii by a score of 27-6 last week was VERY impressive. It's hard to beat Hawaii, let alone hold them to 6 points. I like LA Tech's D enough to think that they can keep this one within 10.5. Take LA Tech and the points tonight.
Game 2
Iowa State + 19
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Kansas – 19
Can someone explain to me what Kansas has done to earn this line? Beat up UTEP and Duke? If that's what it takes to be a 19 point favorite over a conference foe then I think my junior high squad had a pretty decent chance of being a 19 point favorite over Iowa State.
The truth is that Kansas has a decent team. They aren't great but the beauty of this line is that Kansas is undefeated in the early part of the season after playing a group of mighty foes. Heck they beat Northern Colorado – isn't Northern Colorado the school that had one punter try to kill another punter for playing time? If the competition is that fierce for the PUNTER spot can you imagine what the other starters had to do to win their spots? Man…great job Kansas.
Iowa State is 3-2 and their only “bad” loss was a 35-3 pounding from Iowa, but let's break that loss down. Iowa is undefeated, knocked off Penn State, and historically OWNS Iowa State. I'm not sure why there is much surprise that Iowa State couldn't get their act together for that game. Iowa State also lost to Kansas State – by a point. That's not an awful loss, an awful loss would be to lose to them by like 21. The fact of the matter is Iowa State cannot play at home, I think that is in part due to the fact that their fans don't like them very much. I like Iowa State on the road more than I like them at home. 19 points was just enough to get me to jump on that bandwagon.
Game 3
UCONN +6.5
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Pitt -6.5
I think there is one rule when you bet on the stach, it's that you keep riding it when it's hot. And coach Dave has it going for Pitt.
The best part of this line is that when I looked at UCONN I saw that they are a pretty bad team, with some questionable wins that helped the betting public justify giving them only 6.5. They beat Ohio, Baylor, and Rhode Island. Rhode Island hasn't been good at anything since Lamar Odom promised his grandmother that he would stay in school…then left after his freshman year. We'll call it the curse of Lamar's grandma. I'm not really sure there is anything nice I can say about UCONN this season. I don't like teams that use 2 QBs. I don't like teams that rotate running backs AND quarterbacks even more! And that's UCONN. Look, they suck and I'm not sure playing bad non-conference teams should have changed anyone's mind about that.
Pittsburgh, where to start? Coach Dave, as I call him…being from Chicago and watching him do nothing with the Bears makes me feel like Dave and I grew real close during his press conferences when he kept telling everyone that all the pieces were in place…well then what the heck happened Dave? Do you suck at Puzzles or something and have no idea what the picture is supposed to look like so you just throw shit all over?!?! Damnit Dave…Damnit…anyway what I think I'm trying to say is that Coach Dave is a better college coach than pro coach and he should get some props. He is a pretty good recruiter and even though he lost a great back he picked up another one in Dion Lewis. Dion should have a pretty good game against UCONN – hell the Rhode Island back went for 21 yards against them, that had to be a career, if not school, record. Take Pitt…enjoy the money.