Bow Tie Betting Football

Last Week:  2-1

Is going 2-1 ever bad?  No.  It’s always nice to win money, but it sucks when Idaho is the team that kills you.  There’s something about Idaho that should always just scream bad idea…no matter what context it’s being talked about.

Game 1

Akron +11

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Bowling Green -11

Let’s review a few things:

1)  I think Akron is a terrible football team.

2)  Bowling Green is playing for their bowl life

3)  Bowling Green has THE BEST WR in college football in Freddie Barnes.

4)  Freddie Barnes, unlike a lot of other MAC player, shows up EVEN MORE against bad teams.

Take Bowling Green, give the points to a terrible Akron team that isn’t playing for anything.

Game 2

Iowa State +15

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Missouri -15

What a weird season it’s been in the Big 12 North.  There isn’t a team up there that is any good, outside of Nebraska…who I would call kind of good, and every single team looks the exact same.  I can’t tell the difference on the field between Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas, or Missouri!   And on top of that you really have to hand it to Iowa State, they are playing their butts off each and every week – it wasn’t always like that in cyclone city.

Due to those factors my friends, I’m taking Iowa State.

Game 3  (Line only found on Betus.com)

NIU  – PK

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Ohio -PK

This is a pick em folks!  The battle of second place MAC foes who are fighting for the right to play the #1 team for the division crown!

NIU is in the MAC West and NEEDS to beat Ohio in order for their game next week to be for the MAC West title.  Ohio is from the MAC East and NEEDS to beat NIU in order for their game vs. Temple next week to be for the MAC East crown!  You see how this line can be a pick em’?

Why then do I think NIU will win?  Simple, the MAC West > MAC East in football.  The top of the MAC West (NIU & CMU) is miles ahead of the rest of the MAC.  The reason this line is a PK and off the board at other websites is that NIU is probably going to be without one of their top 2 backs.  Which one is still up in the air.  Both Me’co Brown (whom by the way is one of my favorite names in football…any time you get an apostrophe in your first name you’re doing it right) and Chad Spann have an injury that COULD keep them out.  Spann has a shoulder injury sustained late last week vs. Ball State and Me’co Brown has an ankle injury that has been bothering him for weeks.  None of this sounds great for the Huskies right?  Normally I’d say yes, but their 3rd STRING back Justin Anderson has rushed for over 1,200 yards and had over 45 catches IN ONE SEASON!  Why is he 3rd string now you ask?  From all I can gather coach Jerry Kill hates him.  I’m not sure why, but I do know Justin Anderson is a Joe Novak recruit.

Ohio, Frankie Solich.  I love Solich, if you’ve read my picks before you know I think he can out coach about 90% of the guys in D1 and he got a bad rap for having a great season at Nebraska (Hey, I bet they’d take 9-3 now!)  But I have to look past my fandom and accept the fact that his team isn’t that great.  Ohio was able to feast on an awful MAC East.  And by feast I mean they lost to Kent State…so I guess they had their lunch money stolen?  Look the point is that on the field and on paper Ohio doesn’t stack up.  The only place I have them miles ahead of NIU is in coaching.  Jerry Kill does some weird things from time to time in a game – and only he knows why.  He’s the Danny Hope of the MAC.  Even with Solich being miles and miles ahead of Kill I just can’t pick Ohio.  NIU should win by 2 scores, but Solich will keep it within one.

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

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Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

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NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

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Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

It’s time for me to put the pimp down on week 3 of the college football season, so let’s see what I have cooking:

Game 1

This is a really easy game to pick, and I’m a little confused at this line.  Ball State is clearly the class of this game with QB Nate Davis, and a host of very talented WRs.  Akron blew out a very very bad Syracuse team, so I’m not sure what you can really take away from that.  If you want to look at how they kept it close vs. Wisconsin and say that if you couple that with the win vs. the terrible Orange and say that they are a good team I think you are making a very bold leap of faith.  Akron is playing a little bit better than anyone thought they would, and their quarterback Chris Jacquemain seems to have figured it out, the only problem here is that Ball State is just a better team.  I’m not saying Akron isn’t improved, or that Akron isn’t a nice suprise to a very strong MAC, but I am saying that they aren’t at Ball State’s level yet.  Ball State has an oustide chance to run the table this season and they won’t let Akron stand in their way.  The Pick:  Ball State -7

Game 2

This is another game where the spread just confuses me.  Georgia hasn’t exactly destroyed the best teams ever, but you can only beat who you play.  South Carolina should probably take that to heart, they seem to play up or down to whoever they are playing.  That is going to be hard to do vs. Georgia.  South Carolina doesn’t have a quarterback or an offense for that matter.  Steve Spurrier should probably be a better offensive coach than that right?  Either way, USC lost to Vandy, they will lose to Georgia by much more.  This is going to be a closer game than it probably should, but Georgia still takes it by 10.  The Pick:  Georgia

Game 3

A weird line at first glance.  Wisconsin vs. Fresno State?  If I had to predict a line at first thought I would have said Wisconsin -10, but then start taking some things into consideration:

-  Wisconsin sucks when they head out West (Look at UNLV last year) (Take 3 points from Wisconsin)

-  Fresno State plays up to whoever they play thanks to great coaching (Take 3 points from Wisconsin)

-  Fresno is the home team, so that should earn them 3 points or so (Take 3 points from Wisconsin)

And using that you get to the 1 point line.  My thought this year is that you can’t assume Wisconsin will be bad out west this season because they are used to it.  Take Wisconsin, the 1 point line means all you have to do is hope Wisconsin eeks one out.  The Pick:  Wisconsin

Game 4

This game hurts me to have to pick.  I really like Frank Solich, and I never want to sell him short, but Frank and the Bobers don’t really have a chance vs. CMU.  CMU is one of the top 2 teams in the MAC, and Ohio just isn’t there yet.  Ohio has a good number of young or inexperienced players who have to play some serious minutes, in a MAC game that kind of hurts.  Central Michigan is amazing, that’s all I can really say about them.  Take CMU, and you’ll win.  It’s hard to root againt Frank’s gang, but you don’t pick with your heart you pick with your head.  The Pick:  CMU

And those are my picks for the Week.  I hope to have “The Machine” going and up later tonight.  Thanks to some updates I have to make to him though his picks may not be up in time, I have to change some player ratings and formulas so it may take a bit.

Here is something I just noticed before I posted this blog, I took all the road teams in these games.  Why?  I think it’s because of the home team always getting the magical +3, for some reason I just don’t see the home field being that big of a deal to any of these teams.  Maybe South Carolina, but unless their fans can play quarterback I’m not really worried.  I don’t always like to take ALL road teams, but I don’t think the location of the game should affect how you break the game down.

I’ll have my offical “bets” up tomorrow so you can see how I’m going to play this weekend, enjoy!