Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS. I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points. Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football. But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)
Game 1
Ohio -6.5
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Ball State + 6.5
Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is. I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points. Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something. They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU! And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough? No.
As for Ohio they have 3 wins. I would stop now, but I can’t. They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home. So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row. The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it. Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.
Game 2:
Akron + 12
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NIU – 12
Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here. I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line? NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points! Lucky for us it’s only 12 right? NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week. He can’t pass, but he can run. That should be enough to beat Akron.
Akron isn’t awful. I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State. That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really. I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible. The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH. I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!
Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.
Game 3:
Missouri -4
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Colorado
Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale. Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad. Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.
The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...
Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets. Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad. Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well. Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you. Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to. You can’t bet against that.
Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.
Last week I went 1-2…and you know what REALLY pisses me off about last week? I should have at least been 2-1. OK LA Tech got smoked and probably couldn’t win in a million tries, HOWEVER, Coach Wanny and the Panthers SHOULD have scored from the 1 inch line…but had to settle for a FG. I hate Wanny, and the Panthers ALMOST as much as I hate watching a Gummi Bear sing and dance:
I think if there is one thing we can say about the betting public it’s that they don’t really care too much about MAC games – this is where some advantages can be found. Those who don’t really know too much about Ball State probably remember last years team that almost went undefeated…by losing 2 games. Can they really be that bad just a few months removed from being beat down in a bowl game?
Yes. They are probably the worst team in the MAC, and that’s saying a lot considering Eastern Michigan is in that conference. The fact is that they played a few “good” teams close. What do I mean by “good” teams? I mean Toledo and Temple. And if you’re like me you’re probably thinking those teams aren’t good. You’d be right. However compared to Ball State it should have been like the Dallas Cowboys playing the Kansas City Chiefs…er….never mind.
The point is you can’t think Ball State is a good team because they played teams that should have pounded them fairly close. Those teams that should have pounded them are bad too! Just because they are less bad doesn’t mean that some of the tendencies that qualify them as bad won’t show up during the game – for example the fact Toledo doesn’t send any players out there on D. They figure the longer their D is out there the less time their O has to catch up. Take Bowling Green, because Ball State is very, very bad.
Game 2
CMU -7
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WMU + 7
Let’s stick with the MAC theme this week, I kind of like it. Here is my theory on this game WMU is getting a slight boost in the line due to the fact they beat down Toledo last week. However if you read my pick before this you would know that I happen to think that Toledo is a terrible team.
So is WMU as good as they seem to be vs. Toledo? No. Are they as bad as they appeared to be vs. NIU? No. The fact is that Toledo’s defense has a way of making everyone look good the same way that NIU’s defense has a way of making you look bad. The fact is the WMU is probably the 3rd best team in the MAC West and CMU is the #1 team in the MAC West. If we just looked at that we would know that CMU will probably win this game.
The thing that you have to keep in mind here is that while CMU is on the road it should not have any affect on the spread. CMU does not have many issues when they travel IN STATE for games this season (Michigan State can tell you.) CMU is a very good football team that probably won’ t be challenged much during their MAC schedule, this game is a great chance for them to feel the need to get fired up and put a hurting on a squad. WMU will try to put up a good fight but…won’t. Take CMU, be happy.
Game 3
Northern Illinois University -7
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Toledo + 7
OK, game 3 and we are staying MAC. NIU is the #2 team in the MAC west in my opinion, and Toledo isn’t very good. That was my baseline for this pick, then I stared to do some research.
NIU runs their offense out of a spread formation, however unlike 99% of the spread teams out there they spread you out to run the ball. They have a play maker in QB Chandler Harnish and one of the best unknown backs in the country in Chad Spann (who is #2 in the nation in TDs and #2 on the NIU depth chart.) Any time you can have the #2 TD scoring running back in the country as your back up your probably have some pretty good depth at that spot. A 2 headed monster is never a bad thing when you talk about a running game in the midwest. These October/November games are going to start getting cold and running the ball is a great way to not have to worry about wind/rain/snow/cold.
The weather in Toledo tomorrow should be some early rain showers followed by 40 degree HEAT by kickoff. If there was ever a time to have a running team this would be it.
Toledo is not with out it’s charm. They are a high power offense that can score on just about every play – however their starting QB will probably end up being freshman Austin Dantin – who played great vs. WMU after starting QB Alex Opelt went down with an injury. The only problem? Well Austin lit the skies ablaze AFTER WMU took a commanding lead and didn’t seem interested in the game anymore. On the other side of the ball I have yet to find any solid data that Toledo sends anyone else out on defense other than Barry Church.
Here’s the x-factor, historically Toledo has owned NIU. That’s why the line is at 7. Up until last year NIU couldn’t win against Toledo if they had the Dallas Cowboys offensive line…well I don’t think any team could. Toledo has had NIU’s number. The problem? Toledo has a new coach. NIU has very young starters who don’t really know too much of the Toledo dominance over NIU. Heck even the NIU seniors are playing this game to even up the series with Toledo over their career. In fact from 2005 – 2008 the series is tied at 2-2 this would be the rubber match. I do believe that historical dominance is not something you can ignore, but I do feel that if you break down the numbers and recent history is against the trend then don’t buy into the trend. Take NIU, and then go out and buy drinks for the whole bar with your winnings.
Ball State and Army was a tight game, exactly what I thought it would be. Ball State is awful this year, but are they EMU awful or Duke awful? I think what we found out was that Ball State is probably equally as bad as EMU but had a few more lucky bounces and plays to keep the game within 8.5. Great job Ball State!
Tenn @ Florida was an equally surprising game. Who thought that Tenn would be able to keep the game as close as they did? The thing that people tend to forget about good programs when they have bad years is that they still recruit 4 and 5 star players, and in theory they can still play. In big games you usually see guys who seem to have been asleep for the better part of their years on campus start to wake up and play up to a level everyone thought they would. I think this line had more to do with Kiffin’s mouth than it did with the guys on the field. It’s lines like this you have to try to seek out each week.
NIU @ Purdue. What a crazy game! I didn’t think that NIU would outright win the game but they did. Coach Jerry Kill is 3-0 ATS vs. BCS Schools. He gets his guys up to play big games. Purdue was flat out as bad as everyone thought they would be to start the season. One win over Toledo gave their fans a little bit too much pride. I wandered over to the Purdue message boards before making my picks to learn of any injuries or things that fans might have heard, and what I found was that their fans thought they would score over 50 points. Whoops. I’ll tell you what I saw about Purdue that I hated – they have no class. Take a look at this right hook I found on YouTube while I was searching for some highlights of the game:
You can tell you really got beat down when you have to throw a punch. Oregon anyone?
It feels good to have a 3-0 week, so get out there and spend your extra money on something nice for yourself and get ready to come back next week for another great week of picks!
Last week I went 2-1 with my picks and learned a valuable lesson, Colorado has QUIT on this season. I don’t think they are that much worse than Toledo, what I think happened is they stopped caring. Maybe they quit on their coach, maybe they quit on themselves but they taught me to never bet on a team who lost a rivalry game the week before (heck look at FSU almost losing to a FCS team.)
Combined here at the bowtie betting camp we went 4-2 with our picks (NFL + College) and if you haven’t don’t forget to check out our NEW NFL betting blog…that is if you like to make money.
Week 3 Picks
Ball State +8.5
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Army
I know that Nate Davis is long gone, and I know that Ball State probably sucks but I don’t think that Army is better than New Hampshire. Ball State only lost to New Hampshire by 7. I also want to point out that in Week 1 Ball State was a 15 point FAVORITE over North Texas. Clearly Ball State is not living up to expectations but I think they are good enough to keep it within a TD of Army. Army lost by 16 to Duke and beat Eastern Michigan by 13. I’m betting that Ball State falls somewhere between Duke and EMU on the soft scale. Take Ball State, a game out of Muncie will do them good (heck time out of Muncie for anyone would be a good thing.)
Northern Illinois + 13
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Purdue – 13
Let me say this before I get started with this game, Purdue has to be the most surprising team in the Big 10 at this point in the season. They have come out and played with more emotion than they have in the past 5 years under Tiller (and those were some good years.) I was bashing them earlier but I believe in the run game that they have out there and I think it will continue to put the hurt on teams this whole season. That said, this game comes at a bad time.
Purdue is fresh off a west coast trip and not just any ordinary trip. They had to play Oregon at 915 pm Central time, which is late, but even later when you consider that Purdue isn’t on Central time, they are on their own special we-will-never-change-our-clocks time (so it was 1015pm for them.) Traveling out west puts a lot of people in a funk, and playing a football game a 1015pm will mess up your internal clocks for even longer. The kick off for this game is 12pm local time (11am Central.) That’s not the only thing that makes me nervous about Purdue. They are playing rival Notre Dame next week. I know some of you are thinking, “Notre Dame doesn’t care that much about Purude.” and you’re right, but Purdue CARES about Notre Dame. It’s an instate game, and Purdue hates them. Purdue doesn’t have a rival quite like Notre Dame, so you can excuse some of their players for looking ahead.
Northern Illinois has shown that it can play Big 10 teams close on the road, Minnesota last season and Wisconsin this season. Ross-Ade Stadium isn’t seen as loud as either of those two fields so the crowd will not be a factor (Coach Jerry Kill is 2-0 ATS vs. Big 10 Teams.) I don’t think NIU wins this game, but I think they can keep it within 13, even if that means the score very late to keep it respectable.
Take NIU and the 13.
Tennessee + 30
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Florida – 30
I can’t help but feel that the hype off what Lane Kiffin said in the spring/summer is helping to fuel this line. Florida is a dominant team, no doubt about that, but I don’t think they can win by 30 at will on SEC foes. Couple that with the fact that Lane Kiffin’s dad Monte is calling the D things should be fairly close for the better part of the 1st quarter. Monte has had the better part of 3 or 4 months to figure how to keep his son from getting his butt kicked, and I think he’s done it.
Don’t discount the fact Monte is one of the best defensive coaches of all time. Urban Meyer can run the spread all he wants but Monte will figure a way to keep Tennessee in this game. And by in this game I mean within 27 points. The x-factor in this one is Jonathan Crompton. He’s tied for the lead in the NCAA in interceptions (with Purdue’s Joey Elliott) and can royally screw this game up. However, I think that Lane will keep him on a short leash, and if he has to run the ball 2 of 3 or 3 of 3 downs every series. He’s going to want to keep this game close for as long as he can, and I’m guessing that should last about 6 minutes into the game. After that it’s every man for himself. If Monte can keep the Tennessee D from starting a brawl with their own offense for throwing them to the dogs like the will he’ll keep it within 30. So…I guess what I’m saying is take Tennessee and learn why Monte Kiffin was so well regarded in the NFL ranks.
What a crappy week, it’s hard when good teams play like crap and hurt your feelings, although once again I came away with a winning record (2-1 with a tie).
Ball State and Wisconsin took care of business, Georgia was my push at -7 and CMU lost by .5 of a point. Are you kidding me .5 of a point? No, no I’m not kidding, but the cool thing about watching this game is seeing what Frank Solich can do with a team full of guys with OK talent but not a lot experience, Bo Boo Jackson is a fun guy to watch at QB, although he’s a Junior by way of a JUCO he’s a kid who hasn’t played a whole lot who fits into Frank Solich’s system. Fun game, tough loss to take.
Georgia was junk. All this preseason HYPE is just that, HYPE. They will get destroyed if they ever played USC (The real USC, not the USC who should have beaten them if not for a fumble). This game was a tie, and in a sportsbook when you bet on a game (like this game, where for example the line was 7) and the spread is exactly what the final score spread is the game is a push. A push means you get your money back, and shake the sportsbook’s hand for a fun 3 hours.
So 2-1 isn’t a bad week, but it should have been 3-0 or more like 4-0. So far I have yet to have a losing week, that’s never a bad thing either. Honestly, having a 2-1 week when it could easily have been 3-0 is like dating Ashlee Simpson…Sure you’re dating a pop star but you could be doing better.
Ashlee Simpson, it's OK, but you can do better
Next week I’m shooting for 4-0 or Christina Aguilera in this analogy
Don't Pete Wentz it, go for 4-0!
(I also hope to have the computer simulation up and running again for next week’s games!)
Check back Monday for the games I’m keeping my eye on for week 4.
