Bow Tie Betting Football

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

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Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

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NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

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Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

Last week:  2-1

Going 2-1 is never bad, it means we won money.  You hate to have your efforts for a 3-0 day be dashed on the last game, but what can you do?  NIU blew their chances to put Toledo away and ended up losing the game outright.  Well done NIU, well done.

Game 1

Georgia Tech -6

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Virginia +6

Let’s look at this line like mature adults, Georgia Tech is 6-1, the only team they lost to is Miami.  Virginia is 3-3 and lost to William and Mary.  Do I need to go on?  No.  But I will.

Virgina is on a 3 game “hot” streak.  Their wins are against the traditional powerhouses of Indiana, Maryland, and North Carolina.  So what if the best record out of the bunch is 4-3?  They are all great teams.  Honestly, they aren’t great, they’re terrible teams who have played even worse teams to get them the 4-3 records.  Let’s be fair here, Virginia does have an OK QB – and by OK I mean he throws as many TDs as INTs – when you’re Virginia you’ll take that.  The truth is they aren’t great/good/average at anything.  They win games when other teams TRY to give them the win, and even then it’s not a sure thing.

Georgia Tech 6-1, triple option, power run game, and in this game no need to pass.  It’s perfect really.  The way Virginia wins games is when other teams hand them the ball – well when you run the triple option it reduces at least one avenue of turnover, the INT.  Does Georgia Tech still fumble?  Yep.  When you run it as much as they do you are bound to fumble the ball a few times over the course of the season, however Virginia doesn’t have the players to stop the triple option attack for a full 4 quarters.  If this line was around 10 maybe it would be a question, but when it’s less than a touchdown you thank the lines makers and move on.  Take GT, give the points, and buy yourself a nice lunch before the evening games.

Game 2

LA Tech +1

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Utah State -1

Let me ask you something, when is the last time that you ever said to yourself “Utah State is only giving up ___ number of points?!?!  That’s a gift!”  If you’re like me, and the rest of the world, the answer to that question is never.

Utah State is 1-5, so they have that going for them…their win?  Well it was a barn-burning victory over the vaunted squad from South Utah.  When State plays South you throw out the records, cause both squads want a win.   Let me stop right here and be honest, I can’t find anything nice to say about Utah State.  I just can’t.  I want to find a stat that helps me understand why they are favored but I can’t.  I mean I looked at their most recent common opponent in New Mexico State.  Utah State lost by a score of 20-17 and LA Tech won by a score of 45-7.  The only thing that it could possibly be is that Utah State played Nevada VERY close last week.  They only lost by 3 points.  Which is some kind of miracle.

LA Tech has a good team.  They aren’t great, but they will win this game.  So because they will win this game the 1 point line is kind of a joke.  I would tell you to take LA Tech and the money line but there isn’t one posted yet.  So if you can get in on it, take the money line, if you can’t take the point.  Either way LA Tech wins this game.

Game 3

Idaho +15.5

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Nevada

If you don’t pay attention to college football you may be kind of confused by this pick.  Idaho is 6-1, and Nevada is 3-3.  both teams are running through their WAC foes with little resistance.  So if anything this should be a close game, but no not the way the lines makers see it.

Nevada has one win that I would consider nice, they pounded LA Tech.  Outside of that their 2 wins were against lesser foes, and one lesser foe they let stay in the game (Utah State.)  They lost to some fairly poor squads too, I don’t want to call anyone out…COLORADO STATE…but some teams that Nevada lost to you have to wonder how they lost to that Junior High team?  Nevada SHOULD be good.  They really should be.  They have a host of great running backs, the returning WAC player of the year, everything shouts GOOD TEAM!  But they just aren’t.  Something is wrong this year.  I don’t know if they have locker room issues, or if things got to their ego, but they aren’t the team they should be.  It doesn’t look to me like they are going to snap out of anything any time soon.

Idaho, the best kept secret in NCAA football.  I’m not kidding when I say this, they have an NFL QB that no one even talks about!  Nathan Enderle is a Junior QB with the size and arm strength that would have NFL scouts and ESPN jerks creating a ton of hype IF he played somewhere that was not the WAC, more specifically Idaho.  Enderle is 6’5 227 and just starting to figure things out on the field this year.  It isn’t often that you can say Idaho has an NFL anything, and to call him a high round draft pick in 2011 may seem insane, but I’m telling you he will be.  This Nevada game is going to be his coming out party, the funny thing is with the line it doesn’t even have to be.  They are 15.5 point dogs.  All he has to do is not make it his meltdown party and everything will be fine.

One thing that I’ve found is that teams that aren’t used to winning, that have a big game, usually play a little bit better on the road.  I don’t know why – and I don’t have a ton of stats to back me up, I’m just saying Idaho will do just fine.  I’d be tempted to take the money line on this one too, but because we don’t do that here I’m just telling you take 15.5 points and be happy the betting gods smiled on oyu.

1-2 last week.  Dang it.  I knew I was in for a let down, and that let down’s name was Arkansas.  The thing that really drew me in was that Arkansas has a QB who can throw the ball about 80 yards in the air – what is not to like about that?  Well…probably the fact that the rest of the team really died after the first quarter.  Oh well, I’ll take 4 – 6 over 2 weeks.  I’d rather be 5-6 or 6-6 but what can you do?

This is a week I feel pretty good about to be honest, and that makes me even more nervous.  One of the betting tools I look for is a good team coming off a bad loss.  The reason I like this as an indicator is that these are just college kids so focus isn’t always there for them.  Goodness knows it wasn’t when I was in school.  Nothing like a loss in a game that they should have won to get a coach to be able to get the kids focused again…at least for a week.

Game 1

Penn State -7.5

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Illinois + 7.5

Let’s review, Penn State is the best team in the Big 10 – they just can’t beat Iowa.  Everyone has that team that they can’t beat and in this decade for Penn State it’s been Iowa.  Who knows why, or how, but it happens.  That’s the type of loss that will get a team motivated and focused just like what we talked about earlier.

For Illinois Isiah ‘Juice’ Williams has been catching heat like crazy for being a bad QB.  The fact is that the guys around him aren’t helping him out at all.  He’s still the guy that lead U of I to a Rose Bowl – but he’s also still the guy that got blown out in the Rose Bowl.  My theory is this, Missouri beat the hell out of U of I – Penn State will do the same.

Game 2

Western Michigan +7

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Northern Illinois -7

Western Michigan and NIU share the same 2-2 record, however they have very different wins.  Northern Illinois handled the FCS team they played (Western Illinois) and Western Michigan played a closer-than-the-score game with their FCS foe (Hofstra.)  Western Michigan’s other win came at the expense of Miami Ohio – who is about as bad as you get in the MAC without being Ball State this year.  Northern Illinois other win came at the expense of the Purdue Boilermakers on the road.  The 2 losses are interesting – Northern dropped their opener to a pretty decent Wisconsin squad by 8 and Western Michigan dropped their opener by 24 to an equally decent Michigan squad.  What bothers me about the WMU v. Michigan loss is that WMU should have been playing that game with more fire than any game on their schedule.  It’s an in-state BCS foe who passed over, or only offered in passing, a scholarship to many of the players on the WMU squad.  They didn’t.  They came out and got SMOKED.  The 2nd loss for each team was a bad loss.  NIU lost AT HOME to Idaho and WMU lost to Indiana (who may be better than some think, but I think they just showed up and played out of their mind vs. Michigan last week.)  Terrible losses, however NIU’s terrible loss came last week, a great chance for coach Kill to get his guys FOCUSED again.

WMU is probably going to be without starting WR Juan Nunez with an injury.  Although guys have a way of recovering and showing up fine for game day.

NIU should be happy a team is without a weapon in the passing game because, at times, they forget about the pass.

NIU is too talented to have lost to Idaho, and WMU is down just enough to lose to NIU on their homecoming by over 7.  Take NIU

Game 3

Central Michigan – 8

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Buffalo +8

Last week I was talking about how much I like Buffalo – but after watching them closely on Saturday I have come to the conclusion that they are just TOO young to be good this year.  With 2 interceptions in the redzone Buffalo sealed their fate vs. Temple.

Central Michigan is a veteran team that is lead by one of the best QBs in the country in Dan LeFevour .  And if you look at their last 3 games after coming off that weird loss at Arizona, (who to be honest had the advantage of having a team from the Midwest coming out and playing a night game), has smoked everyone they have played since.  I don’t see Buffalo putting up a bigger fight in this game.  They may come out and keep it close early but Buffalo just doesn’t have the horses to run this race with CMU.

Take CMU…and enjoy!

Coming off a 3-0 week with your picks is never easy.  You can’t top what you just did and the only way you can logically travel is down the mountain.

At bowtie betting we have made it a habit of falling off the top of a mountain as gracefully as we can, and this week I think we are going to stay up there awhile.

Game 1:

Mississippi  -4.5

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South Carolina  +4.5

I hate betting on USC, any USC, and this week I’m going against my feelings for them to bet with my brain.  Mississippi is by far the highest ranked team to ever not play anyone.  Last year they lost to South Carolina at home.  I know someone out there will say, “But that’s the game after they beat Florida!”  And I would agree with that statement, but not agree with it for being the reason that they lost the game.  If they came out flat, then I could believe it, but they actually came out strong and put up 14 in the first quarter on USC for a 14-3 lead after one.  The lost that lead.  It had nothing to do with Florida, if anything they were riding high then came down to Earth.

Ole Miss handled a terrible Memphis team 45 – 14.  But consider the fact that 28 points came in the 4th quarter.  In fact 21 came in the last 6 minutes or so.  MTSU put a better beat down on Memphis (we are counting consistent scoring…not total margin of win.)  I think Ole Miss is a better team than they have been in the past, but they aren’t ‘Great’ and they aren’t 4.5 points better.

The thing about USC is that I’m not a fan.  South Carolina just irks me, I don’t know why.  Maybe it’s because they are the most frustrating team to watch in the world.  Who calls their plays on offense?  Score some friggin’ points, because you should!  That doesn’t mean they suck.

My pick:

South Carolina Gamecocks

Game 2:

Arkansas + 17.5

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Alabama – 17.5

In a battle of teams that both have coaches that I hate I picked the team with the coach I hate the most.  Why?  Because he needs this win.  The world already hates him, but at least he has won before.  If he keeps losing the world will just hate him and he’ll have nothing to fall back on!

Alabama, put the hurting on 2 crappy teams and played a fairly close game with Virgina Tech to open the year.  I don’t know about you but beating North Texas doesn’t make me feel like you are that great of a team.  Julio Jones and Roy Upchurch may not play.  That doesn’t make me feel better about them.

Arkansas, where do I begin?  Your coach is an ass-hat and you are 0-1 ATS.  That said you dropped 41 on Georgia.  I like that kind of party – and there’s nothing more dangerous than a cocky bastard who’s fighting to keep being a cocky bastard and not an idiot loser (Kanye West anyone?)  Sometimes it doesn’t work out, but in this case I’m feeling it.

My Pick:

Arkansas...tough looking mascot if you ask me

Game 3:

Arizona State +12

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Georgia -12

I really want to pick Arizona State and here’s why:

ASU Hottest Fans Ever

But they are making a fairly long trip to Georgia AND they aren’t really that good of a team.  Georgia manages to screw things up from time to time, but I don’t see this one being that close.

My Pick:

Georgia

Well ladies and gentlemen it appears as if your thirst for college football will be quenched this weekend!  And what better way to quench that thirst a little bit more than with a 3 pack of bets to start your season?

(All lines via Betus.com as of 9/1 10am Central Time)

South Carolina +5.5

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NC State -5.5

Golly, I really, really, really loved this line on Sunday when it was a simple -4 for NC State.  The fact is NC State has the better team this season AND is playing at home.  On the other side of the coin is the fact South Carolina DESTROYED NC State last year to the tune of 34-0.  There are 2 ways this can go NC State can get a little bit of revenge and beat up on Coach Steve OR they can get down early and think, “There is no way we can beat the east coast USC!”  Personally I think North Carolina State is going to beat the fake USC by at least 9.

North Carolina State has a dynamic young quarterback in Russell Wilson.  Let’s ignore the fact he went 1 for 5 last season against USC.  He was a Freshman in his first game, so that makes him what, like 12?  The truth is Russell Wilson will put up some amazing numbers in his college career, he just fits that mold – you know the Joe Hamilton mold.  Offense doesn’t always WIN games, but a dynamic offense never loses games either.

The reason I bring that up is South Carolina lost so many guys from their defense last year that I wasn’t sure they would be able to field a team.  I thought they were going to go all “Necessary Roughness” on us and try and get Sinbad back for one last season of eligibility.

Sinbad; he looks A LOT gayer than I remember.

The truth is when you are South Carolina and the one corner on your defense that you are sure of is a FRESHMAN in Stephon Gilmore – then you are in trouble.  Freshman don’t always do well in their first games, on the road, with a very hostile…and hot crowd.

The best 2 (4) things to come out of NC State (yeah and that counts Phillip Rivers.)

Take NC State in this one.  And enjoy a Thursday victory.

Game 2

Missouri + 6.5

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Illinois – 6.5

Remember when “Juice” Williams and Arrelious Benn were going to take over the Big 10?  Well things never really got going at U of I.  Last season when Louisiana-Lafayette came to town and almost gave the Illini a beat down things just started going down the toilet.  The major issue with U of I is one that no one seems to talk about, but it’s the fact they don’t have a running back.  You’d think the #1 school in the state of Illinois could grab a kid from that state (which usually produces a good back or 2 a year) and plug him in for 4 seasons.  Well it hasn’t happened.  The good news is that U of I has 4 backs listed on their 2 deeps, ALL with the -OR- listed next to their name.  You know what that says to me?  That says to me you have 0 backs.  Oh well, with Juice and a very talented group of receivers the backs have to do little more than put on their jersey’s straight to have a good day.

Mizzou.  Ohhhhhhhh Mizzou.  Anyone remember last season, when all the talk was about how Mizzou could score like a million points in a game?  Well – we aren’t going to be hearing any of that nonsense this season.  They have to replace their QB, WR, and about 100 other guys on O.  The truth is we don’t have a whole lot to go on with their offense so I can’t throw numbers out there or anything (which is the #1 reason why week 1 games are so hard to pick) but I get the feeling that these guys aren’t going to be able to beat U of I this year.  In fact I’m not sure that the no names of Missouri are going to be able to keep it within 17 points let alone 6.5.  The U of I D is going to be pretty good – expect Martez “Tez” Wilson to have a big game.  Sure he has a lazy nickname but the fighting Zookers are hoping that’s the only part of him that’s lazy.

Take U of I – 6.5

Game 3

Northern Illinois +16.5

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Wisconsin -16.5

I love to bet on the opening Saturday NIGHT Big 10 game, and bet against the Big 10 team.  It happens that for the second straight year that Big 10 team is playing Northern Illinois.  Unlike last year Northern Illinois does not have Larry English to run around and give an oversized and slow Big 10 line fits.  Although unlike last year Northern Illinois isn’t trotting out a Freshman QB, Freshman RB, and Freshman head coach.  They say your 2nd year in a system is when you really start to pick things up.

With a lot of freshman on Northern Illinois 2-deeps Huskie fans can take solace in the fact that NONE of the freshman are listed as starters unlike a season ago.  When you play a BIG Big 10 team like Wisconsin you are going to have to spread them out and tire them, luckily for NIU they run a spread O (where they RUN a ton) with 3 or 4 running backs who can see action and a running QB who can give you some trouble if you don’t watch him.  The speed on the outside at receiver is as good as NIU has had in year with Nathan Palmer and Willie Clark providing the wheels and Landon Cox bringing the size at 6’3 213.  Expect Senior Marcus Lewis and Freshman Martell Moore to also see some action – because they are tall.  You love tall receivers in a spread with a young QB.  Speaking of the young QB Chandler Harnish is going to be the man at the helm this season – he had an OK freshman campaign that was marred with injuries and inconsistencies.  If the saying holds true and you really learn a system in your 2nd year then Mr. Harnish could be waiting to be that next line of great MAC QBs.

Speaking of inexperienced QBs Wisconsin recently named Scott Tolzen their starting QB.  The truth is with an offensive line the size that the Badgers has Tolzen has to do little else but not spin the wrong way on a handoff and he’s going to do exactly what the Badgers want this season.  However, when you have a QB who was lightly recruited, and generally seen as having not a whole ton of talent, you have to worry.  Tolzen wasn’t really that great in High School so you have to wonder if he is forced to pass will he be able to hit receivers Nick Toon and Isaac Anderson?  I’m betting no.  At running back the Badgers have 2 good/great ones in Zach Brown and John Clay.  Clay is probably the better of the 2 and better suited for this offense.  Why?  Because John Clay is a giant and the offensive line is as big as you will probably see – so the young/smallish Huskie line is going to be in for a long day.

When you have a match up like this and it seems like each team should probably have some success on offense you have to look at the spread.  16.5 is just TOO large of spread for a running team with a new QB and a defense that makes their head coach nervous to cover in the first game of the season.  Again when the Big 10 has a team that opens at night they generally don’t do so well.  I’m figuring the folks up in Madison are going to be too drunk by game time to be that huge of a distraction – and I’m not sure they are giving the Huskies the type of respect they deserve.

Take NIU +16.5 and call it a pretty good college football weekend!

Check back on Monday to see how we did, and best of luck to all of you!

So often people seem to think there is a system when picking the outcome of sporting events, and so often something like the Kentucky Derby happens.  A 50 – 1 LONGGGGGGGG shot manages to come out of no where and win the whole darn event.  The interesting thing to point out is that the 50-1 odds seem to indicate that someone, somewhere was betting on him.

So how did they do it?  Was there a system that was used that made this 50-1 long shot an obvious choice?  No.  It was simple mathmatics.  Often times some gamblers do not pick the horse/team/whatever that they think is going to win, they pick the team that has the best ROI with a decent chance to win.

What does that mean?  It means it was the Kentucky Derby, just about every horse in that race has some sort of hype behind it – be it the horses sire, or past performances, the moral of the story is that every horse had a chance.  And that was even more aparent when the early line and morning line favorite “I Want Revenge” was a late scratch.

So how does this apply to football – it’s simple really, teams that are supposed to win, don’t always win.  Not something that should be a shock to anyone, but the key is to find 3 or 4 teams to select who offer a fair ROI and have a chance in the game.  For example, Ole’ Miss v. Florida this season.  Why would anyone bet on Ole’ Miss?  Ole’ Miss is an SEC team, and for as bad as they have been they still were able to bring in some solid SEC type recruits.  They had a coach now who knows how to win in the SEC – and their QB was a transfer from Texas where he was supposed to be the next big thing, not Colt McCoy (according to Rivals Snead was only ranked slightly below Tebow.)  Couple with those factors the fact that Florida probably felt like they could walk over a team like Ole’ Miss and you have a recipe for an upset.

Now how many times does it happen that you have a recipe for an upset, and it doesn’t work out.  The favorite goes out and destroys that poor underdog – I’d say fairly often.  That’s why some would suggest you hedge your bets with 3 or 4 upsets that could happen, and not just on a miracle but based on some form of research.  Ole’ Miss is a team that you can keep your eye on as an “underdog” this season.  They have some talent, they won’t pull out a ton of wins in the SEC, but they will win SOME.

That’s just one type of “betting Theory” out there, keeping an eye on ROI not what you think is going to happen.  In fact this betting theory doesn’t suggest you bet on games you feel “good” about but games you feel least bad about.

The beauty of the NCAA football season is that it is so long that you can always find a game to bet on for about 6 months in a row.  Sadly, that’s also the worst thing about it.

When the season ends there really isn’t anything left to bet on, unless of course you like to bet on baseball or the NBA playoffs.

Here are some quick tips:

1)  When betting on baseball always bet against the Cubs.  100 years + of history can’t be wrong.  (In all seriousness the Cubs are going to do a TON of winning, the only problem is they will win the most 1 run games in history.  Take the runs and the underdog when playing the Cubs.)

2)  The Celtics don’t care about the Playoffs.  Ray Allen is too old to care, and Paul Pierce doesn’t have Kevin Garnett on the court to make him care about the game.  Their opening round series with the Bulls will end with the Bulls winning in 5 games (or at least winning ATS in 4 of 5 games).

3)  Wait a week or 2 then start to put money against the Marlins.  They are a scrappy young team, the problem with young teams like that is once they are expected to win they won’t.  So wait till the run lines start to respect the Marlins then jump on that one.

4)  The Mariners are going to be for real (in terms of betting).  They aren’t blowing anyone away, but are winning the games they shouldn’t ATS.

5)  Cleveland won’t lose a game in the first round.  You can rid them ATS into the 2nd round.

6)  The Lakers are good.  Very Good.  ATS they are not that good.  If you want, take the Lakers striaght up, but stay away from that line.

7)  Portland is a team to bet on.  Too young to really care about what is going on – I think they’ll win a bunch of games ATS.

8)  The Yankees?  No.

9)  San Antonio?  No.

10)  Take the Bulls in games 1 and 2 Money line.  They are going to win them both.

With Purdue having their best returning offensive player, and starting quarterback, dismissed from campus for 3 semesters for “Academic Violations” Purdue is a team to watch.  Why?  Well let’s take a look at the 2009 schedule:

2009-2010 SCHEDULE ( Click on an event for complete event information )

Date	Opponent / Event	Location	Time / Result
09/05/09	vs. Toledo	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
09/12/09	at Oregon	Eugene, Ore.	TBA
09/19/09	vs. Northern Illinois	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
09/26/09	vs. Notre Dame	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/03/09	vs. Northwestern	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/10/09	at Minnesota	Minneapolis, Minn.	TBA
10/17/09	vs. Ohio State	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/24/09	vs. Illinois	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/31/09	at Wisconsin	Madison, Wis.	TBA
11/07/09	at Michigan	Ann Arbor, Mich.	TBA
11/14/09	vs. Michigan State	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
11/21/09	at Indiana	Bloomington, Ind.	TBA

Why do I like this schedule, 2 reasons:  Toledo and Northern Illinois.  If you are Big 10 Purdue you are going to be the favorite vs. a Bad MAC team in Toledo and a strange MAC team in Northern Illinois.  What I like best about this is that Purdue will go 0-3 in their first 3 games and most likely will go 1-2 ATS (I think whatever the line is vs. Oregon they will end up covering.)

I’ve always liked betting MAC teams early in the season vs. BCS foes.  They most likely will not win the games but they will pound the spread (Look at NIU vs. Minnesota last season that I picked in week 1.)

Justin Siller being dismissed is terrible news for Purdue fans and that young man, but great news for the MAC squad.  The good news is that Purdue still has their cheerleaders!

Hey...Purdue has good looking cheerleaders!

Hey...Purdue has good looking cheerleaders!

Last week was OK, I’ll recap last week tomorrow or Sunday, but right now I want to drop my picks on you guys!

Central Michigan +1.5

Indiana -1.5

This is a very interesting game, CMU at times has the greatest offense you will ever want to see on the football field, and at other times Dan LeFevor looks beatable.  I wanted to pick Indiana here, I really did, I love the Hoosiers – not because they are good at football, but because they are so bad.  Sadly, I still think even if bad CMU shows up they beat IU.  Take CMU by at least 3.

Pittsburgh +5

Notre Dame -5

This is one of those games that I’m going to have to advise you to not listen to me…I’m betting with my heart.  I don’t “hate” Notre Dame as much as some people, but I do feel that their fans think their robust 5-2 record should have them right in the BCS talk.  The only problem here people is that their 5 wins came against TERRIBLE teams, and their 2 losses were to AVERAGE at BEST teams.  They did not lose to the cream of the crop – and I think Coach Mustache will have his Pitt Panthers ready to beat up on cream puff that is ND.  Take Pitt with the points, and they will probably win too.  Just a quick side note…this game scares me, it’s a PROVE what your team is type game, if ND loses to PITT they aren’t a top 25 team like they seem to think they are, if they WIN they deserve some Top 25 talk…that my friend is motivation we can’t measure, but I still see Coach Mustache doin his thing.

Michigan +2.5

Purdue -2.5

This is just the type of game Joe Tiller needs, his team sucks, it’s his last season, and he wants something to hang his hat on, beating Michigan is a good enough hat rack at this point.  Bowl hopes are gone in West Lafayette, so this is their Bowl game.  Purude by 6.

FSU +2.5

Georgia Tech -2.5

Why pick Florida State in this one?  I’m not sure, I’m really just not sure.  I know they have the better talent, I know that at times it seems like FSU is on the right path, but 40 seconds later they blow it wth a stupid mistake and make everyone look stupid!  FSU has one loss…in which they LOOKED TERRIBLE…but only 1 loss.  I’m taking FSU, who is the dog, while being ranked #15.  They should win outright in fact, so if you want to take that one too, do it.

Those are my picks, check back for a recap and the computer picks next week!

Week 8 was OK for me.  I went 3-2, I won a little bit of cash (if I were betting of course), and I got some respect back after that 2-2 of week 7.

The Machine is still off getting fixed, although i was hoping to have him fixed by today for the picks, but what can you do?

By the way, a 3 – 2 week is like Jenn Sterger.  Sure she’s hot, and no one would complain about it, but there is that thought in the back of your head that “I can do better than something Musberger found…”

Here are my picks:

Louisiana Tech +2.5

Army -2.5

I don’t care how bad you are, if Army is favored over you in a football game you are over due for a win.  The thing that really confuses me about this line is that LA Tech is 3-3, they beat Mississippi State, AND Army barely beat EMU.  I don’t know too much about either team, but I know EMU sucks and I know Mississippi State is in the SEC, Army is not.  Give me LA Tech easily in this one.

Kentucky +25.5

Florida -25.5

Here’s what I like about Kentucky…well you know what I don’t really like anything, they are getting 25.5 points and have won 5 games losing only by 3 to Alabama.  I don’t see where they are getting this 25.5 line, that’s really a bold step to make by the odds makers if they are that sure that the GOOD Florida O is going to show up.

Bowling Green +7.5

Northern Illinois -7.5

This is an interesting game for a few reasons, the Huskies are hot on the current homestand and have only allowed 2 TDs on defense in their last 5 GAMES! The only problem is that Bowling Green can only seem to win when they are on the road.  This is going to be a good game for Northern to prove if they are in the MAC race or not.  With a loss removing NIU from the MAC West race I feel like they are going to be playing hard, so a 10 point win isn’t out of the question here.

CMU -3.5

Toledo +3.5

Well last week I won because of both of these teams.  Toledo is a very bad football team and gave NIU that easy win, and CMU beat a pretty darn good WMU team.  What I don’t understand is why this line is so small?  It’s possible that the concerns at CMU’s QB spot could be affecting the line, there is also the possibilty that Toledo can have a great game on O.  With all of that said I still feel like CMU is the team to pick in this game.

That’s all I got….Oh yeah, I almost forgot one thing:

3-2 is nice, no one is complaining, it's just you'd have liked to have done it on your own.