Posts Tagged ‘Betting Lines’

NCAA 2010 Week 1: The Picks

August 27th, 2010

Well that time is just about here – one week from yesterday the NCAA FBS football season will be on and rocking!

This year we have a new TOP SECRET betting formula that we are going to use to select 5 games each week (to eliminate those “tie” weeks.)

Each week we are going to pretend we’re using $100 per bet, and my pretend starting balance is going to be $1000.

Bank:  $1000

Game 1

Thursday September 2

137 No Illinois Huskies
47 O
U
138 Iowa State Cyclones
FSN
It’s time to put your money where your mouth is, and no better way to do that than to start the season off with a Thursday showdown.  Of all the Thursday games this is the one I feel best about.
Northern Illinois University is kicking it old school.  Remember back in the day when coaches didn’t used to release much, if any, information on their 2-Deeps?  Well Jerry Kill is doing it…big.  This is the first time I’ve ever seen a 2-deep the week before a game go 3-DEEP at QB with all QBs separated by an OR.  I used to have a saying, if you think you have 3 QBs you have zero.  In this case I think it fits.  If Jerry Kill honestly had a passer he felt good about I don’t think we’d see 2 Ors, I mean what is this a boat?  (Get it?)
The fact of the matter is I could be out there handing the ball off then throwing a 3 yard dump off and still keep this game close.  Northern Illinois features probably the best combination of running and defense of all the mid-west non-AQ schools.  And when you’re in the mid-west you have to play that way.  Don’t let Purdue fool you – if you try to spread it out too often in that climate you’re most likely going to end up like Michigan, not Central Michigan.  When you run and play defense you’re not going to need that much time to get your offense going – which is why NIU always keeps it close in their opening games @ BCS schools (Minnesota and Wisconsin) under Jerry Kill.  I like teams that you can count on right out of the box so does the Mr. Bowtie Formula.
Iowa State probably had one of the more shocking years that I can come up with in recent memory.  They went to Nebraska and won…by a score of 9-7…after 8, yes 8 Nebraska turnovers to their 0.  I think this ISU 09 tribute video should tell the story for me:

There are shockingly FEW ISU highlight videos on YouTube…search it yourself!

Here’s what you have to notice from the Video:

-  The bulk of the highlights are vs. Baylor and Kent State.  That’s like me making a highlight video of myself dunking on 3rd graders.  While they’re trying their best they don’t really belong on the court.

-  The “highlights” of the Nebraska game aren’t really highlights as much as they are moments where it shows ISU doing not as bad as Nebraska.

-  Nothing says class like storming the field vs. Colorado.  Yeah, the Colorado who lost to Toledo by 100000.  (To be fair they did clinch a bowl bid – and that’s a big deal for Iowa State.)

So…what do we take away from all of the highlights?  ISU isn’t the awful ISU we all used to know.  Coach Paul Rhoads had a great first season where the ball bounced his way and a soft schedule walked them into a bowl game – but don’t like the bowl game fool you.  This is still Iowa State – this season towards the bottom of the Big 12.  They are playing Northern Illinois – towards the top of the MAC.  Can the top of the MAC beat the bottom of the Big 12?  In the opening weekending they can.

Mr. Bowtie Predicted Spread – NIU by 4.25 (yes…it really says .25 points…)

Game 2

147 Arizona Wildcats
61 O
U
148 Toledo Rockets
ESPN
Arizona invades Toledo!  Normally I don’t feel the need to defend the fact I’m picking a PAC 10 team over a bottom of the rung MAC team but I will.  Arizona was 8-5 last season with some pretty impressive wins.  I count the opening game win over Central Michigan pretty impressive because that was an offensive powerhouse that they happened to catch Week 1 of the season.  And what did I explain about the offense during week 1?  It’s going to suck if you aren’t a running team.  Toledo certainly is not a running team.  Arizona is a fairly balanced attack Ranking 48th in passing and 51st in rushing yards per game nationally.  The beauty of a team like that is it can protect itself early in the season by running the ball and throwing comfortable passes.  But they won’t even need to do that – Toledo doesn’t play much defense and without Barry Church I’m not sure they are going to play any Defense.
It’s time to say something nice about Toledo.  Toledo can really whip the ball around the field – last season they ranked 19th in the nation in passing yards per game.  The only thing I can really say that I don’t care for about the Toledo offense this season is that you’re going to have a bunch of new parts.  Opelt is gone.  Collins is gone.  Williams is gone.  Page is still here – so is the other Williams.  But is Page going to be able to sneak up on anyone this year?  Is their new QB Austin Dantin ready to start throwing the ball to the correct team?  All of these questions make me nervous about the type of year that Toledo is going to have on offense.  Then let me couple that with Barry Church finally graduating and you’re going to be nervous about Toledo on D.  To summarize, I don’t trust Toledo’s offense early in the season, I’ll never like their defense, and they’re playing against a balanced, winning, PAC 10 school.
Mr. Bowtie Predicted Spread – Arizona by 20.5
Game 3
163 Purdue Boilermakers
54 O
U
164 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
NBC
Purdue on the road vs. Notre Dame always used to be a fairly simple bet.  Take Notre Dame and give up however many points you have to.  Things have changed.  Purdue continues their “basketball on grass” or as I call it the “Rasheed Wallace” approach to the game.  This year they add Robert Marve to the system.  If you look at him on paper he’s like a taller – stronger armed – Drew Brees.  The problem isn’t his height or his arm, it’s in his brain where decisions are made.  Marve doesn’t have a history of being the world’s greatest decision maker on, or off, the field.  But for betting purposes I don’t really care about what he does off the field.  The biggest issue facing Purdue week 1 is a lack of a running back.  Ralph Boldin is out (ACL) and Al-Terek McBurse is a little bit gimpy.  So what are we looking at?  A day made for Rasheed Wallace football.  Forget running, they’re going to attack the thin, and green, Notre Dame secondary with a variety of passes and sets.  The thing is Purdue actually has a good receiver in Kevin Smith.  Couple that size with Justin Siller the 6’4 QB-Turned RB-Turned QB-Turned Kicked off the Team-Turned WR and you might just have something that Notre Dame physically cannot compete with on the outside.
Notre Dame knows Purdue is good on the outside, but Notre Dame wants Purdue to know that the 3-4 isn’t scared of big receivers.  When you have linebackers dropping to the Hook/Curl zone you’re not really going to be too worried about a big WR coming over the middle and doing any sort of catch/run baloney because of a missed tackle.  But as I keep mentioning, in week 1 big play offenses are going to run into trouble if they don’t run.  Notre Dame is like Purdue in the regard that they’re going to start to love to pass the ball, but unlike Purdue in the regard that they have to learn a brand new offense with a brand new starting QB.  Might I also add that this starting QB wears a knee brace?  Dayne Crist is a big kid (6’4 235) and when he did run last year vs. Purdue he didn’t do a bad job of it.  I just don’t see him running against Purdue with a knee brace and that surprisingly quicker Purdue defense.
So what does all of this mean?  It means Purdue has a new QB, Notre Dame has a new QB, neither team knows if they can run, and both defenses are good enough to stop the other teams offense at least in week one.
Mr Bowtie Predicted Spread – Purdue wins by 3
Game 4
171 UCLA Bruins
43 O
U
172 Kansas State Wildcats
ABC
UCLA is going to be better, they have to be right?  UCLA recruits some SERIOUS talent, Kansas State recruits like a MAC team.  That alone makes me feel like UCLA has to win by more than 3.  But let’s dig deeper – UCLA had a SUPER young Kevin Prince at QB last season and he made your standard freshman mistakes.  Seriously, I’d watch some of the games and just want to rip my TV off the wall…but if I did that I’d have nothing to scream at.  The truth is for a Freshman in the PAC 10 he had an OK year.  8 TDs 8 INTs , not great, but not exactly going to kill you in every game.  He did just enough to be out there and tell the UCLA cheerleaders he was a QB.  This year if UCLA wants to jump into the power vacuum that is the PAC 10 they are going to need to him to grow up and have the UCLA cheerleaders KNOW he is a QB without having to tell them.
Kansas State is an interesting team.  In early season games at home you kind of have to like what they do.  Daniel Thomas should scare UCLA, heck he should scare the whole Big 12.  This is a kid who can play and is one of my favorite backs in the whole Big 12, he moved up even further on that list after Derrick Washington was suspended by Mizzou.  What have I been saying all day?  If you can run the ball early in the season you are going to be able to keep games a lot closer than they should be.  The only problem with that?  Well…this game should be a 24 point win by UCLA – but it won’t be.  Sorry Kansas State, I think you’re team is a lot better than it has been in the past 4 years, but I don’t think it’s good enough to win a UCLA team on the uptick…yet.  Ask me that question about week 10 when the cats have their QB situation figured out and you’re going to have a different answer.  KSU will be a surprise team this year…just not week one.
Mr. Bowtie Predicted Spread – UCLA by 14  (It’s predictions like this that kind of make me wonder about computers…It’s going to be a good game…14 points is a lot though…while I agree with Mr. Bowtie on the outcome, I don’t agree with him on the spread #)
Game 5
173 Syracuse Orange
43½ O
U
174 Akron Zips
Syracuse is a bad football team at this point in their rebuilding…I know this.  I also know that they called on a Duke point guard to play QB last season.  BUT did you know that their offensive line went on some crazy diet/conditioning program and went from very fat dudes to fat dudes who can block for the run AND pass now?  No?  Well you should.  The thing I like about Syracuse is that they have a decent offensive line and they’ll have a decent running game.  The rest of their team is going to be a crap shoot due in injuries an other reasons dudes are off the field.  The point is…well…that Syrcause is going to be “bad” just not lose to Akron or let Akron keep the game close “bad.”
Akron …well let me say this first I was going to have some big long writeup about these guys but a quote for the Syracuse blog kind of made me chuckle…and summed up pretty much all I could say about the topic:  “Not too much is expected of the Zips this year…”  Can I ask when something is EVER expected of the Zips?  Over the past 4 years they have won 5, 4, 5, and 3 games!  That’s 17 games…in 4 seasons. Do their fans sit around and talk like, “This is the year…this is the year we win Big…6 games.”
I think the Zips are finally heading in the right direction with Rob Ianello.  Let’s be honest, the Zips haven’t done anything since 2005, and how they made a bowl that year I’ll never know.  But if a 7 win season is your “best in recent memory” you’re going to have to do something about that, and Rob Ianello will.  He had a very nice recruiting class for a MAC school making the turn around there seem within reach.  All it takes is one good class and 2 years to be competitive in the MAC.  Coach Ianello has the first part down, now he just needs the time.

Mr Bowtie Predicted Spread – Syracuse wins by 13.3333333  (Good luck with that one Mr. Bowtie!)

****All lines are from BetUs.com Friday August 27 9:15AM

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Week 12 Picks

November 20th, 2009

Last Week:  2-1

Is going 2-1 ever bad?  No.  It’s always nice to win money, but it sucks when Idaho is the team that kills you.  There’s something about Idaho that should always just scream bad idea…no matter what context it’s being talked about.

Game 1

Akron +11

@

Bowling Green -11

Let’s review a few things:

1)  I think Akron is a terrible football team.

2)  Bowling Green is playing for their bowl life

3)  Bowling Green has THE BEST WR in college football in Freddie Barnes.

4)  Freddie Barnes, unlike a lot of other MAC player, shows up EVEN MORE against bad teams.

Take Bowling Green, give the points to a terrible Akron team that isn’t playing for anything.

Game 2

Iowa State +15

@

Missouri -15

What a weird season it’s been in the Big 12 North.  There isn’t a team up there that is any good, outside of Nebraska…who I would call kind of good, and every single team looks the exact same.  I can’t tell the difference on the field between Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas, or Missouri!   And on top of that you really have to hand it to Iowa State, they are playing their butts off each and every week – it wasn’t always like that in cyclone city.

Due to those factors my friends, I’m taking Iowa State.

Game 3  (Line only found on Betus.com)

NIU  – PK

@

Ohio -PK

This is a pick em folks!  The battle of second place MAC foes who are fighting for the right to play the #1 team for the division crown!

NIU is in the MAC West and NEEDS to beat Ohio in order for their game next week to be for the MAC West title.  Ohio is from the MAC East and NEEDS to beat NIU in order for their game vs. Temple next week to be for the MAC East crown!  You see how this line can be a pick em’?

Why then do I think NIU will win?  Simple, the MAC West > MAC East in football.  The top of the MAC West (NIU & CMU) is miles ahead of the rest of the MAC.  The reason this line is a PK and off the board at other websites is that NIU is probably going to be without one of their top 2 backs.  Which one is still up in the air.  Both Me’co Brown (whom by the way is one of my favorite names in football…any time you get an apostrophe in your first name you’re doing it right) and Chad Spann have an injury that COULD keep them out.  Spann has a shoulder injury sustained late last week vs. Ball State and Me’co Brown has an ankle injury that has been bothering him for weeks.  None of this sounds great for the Huskies right?  Normally I’d say yes, but their 3rd STRING back Justin Anderson has rushed for over 1,200 yards and had over 45 catches IN ONE SEASON!  Why is he 3rd string now you ask?  From all I can gather coach Jerry Kill hates him.  I’m not sure why, but I do know Justin Anderson is a Joe Novak recruit.

Ohio, Frankie Solich.  I love Solich, if you’ve read my picks before you know I think he can out coach about 90% of the guys in D1 and he got a bad rap for having a great season at Nebraska (Hey, I bet they’d take 9-3 now!)  But I have to look past my fandom and accept the fact that his team isn’t that great.  Ohio was able to feast on an awful MAC East.  And by feast I mean they lost to Kent State…so I guess they had their lunch money stolen?  Look the point is that on the field and on paper Ohio doesn’t stack up.  The only place I have them miles ahead of NIU is in coaching.  Jerry Kill does some weird things from time to time in a game – and only he knows why.  He’s the Danny Hope of the MAC.  Even with Solich being miles and miles ahead of Kill I just can’t pick Ohio.  NIU should win by 2 scores, but Solich will keep it within one.


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Week 6 Picks

October 9th, 2009

Last week I was 2-1 and a lightning strike away from being 3-0.  That lightning strike was just the inspiration that Bufflalo needed to keep it within 8 – anytime you are playing not to get fried you are playing the way God intended.

I’ll take a 2-1 week every week, as should you, it means profit, and profit is what we like!

Game 1

LA Tech +10.5

@

Nevada RENO -10.5

A few things about this game jump out at me right away, Nevada Reno is really gung-ho about making everyone say the “Reno” AND they are 1-3.  I’m not really sure which of those 2 things bugs me more.  Nevada should in theory be better than their 1-3 record, and I always thought they were better than someone who tried to give themselves a nickname.  Sure “Reno” isn’t a nickname – but that isn’t the point here.  The point is that they have just disappointed me on 2 levels.

In a serious look at Reno – I like the squad, hate the city, and the record.  They’ve lost to Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Missouri.  Their win was against a UNLV squad that looked like it didn’t want to be on the field with their “Rival”.  The weirdest thing about that game is that UNLV wasn’t as bad as they played on the field that day.  Which also implies that Reno isn’t as good as they played on the field that day.  The score was 63 – 28, however if we break it down it wasn’t really THAT bad of a game.  It was 21-21 at halftime and 35-28 to start the 4th.  It’s just when you let 28 points up in the 4th quarter generally things aren’t going to go as well as you want.

In a look at LA Tech I’ve come to the conclusion that I like their team.  They were only down 13-10 at half vs. a pretty darn good Auburn squad and ony down 14-18 going into the 4th against a VERY good Navy team.  Navy plays everyone hard and there is no shame in losing to them.  Beating Hawaii by a score of 27-6 last week was VERY impressive.  It’s hard to beat Hawaii, let alone hold them to 6 points.  I like LA Tech’s D enough to think that they can keep this one within 10.5.  Take LA Tech and the points tonight.

Game 2

Iowa State + 19

@

Kansas – 19

Can someone explain to me what Kansas has done to earn this line?  Beat up UTEP and Duke?  If that’s what it takes to be a 19 point favorite over a conference foe then I think my junior high squad had a pretty decent chance of being a 19 point favorite over Iowa State.

The truth is that Kansas has a decent team.  They aren’t great but the beauty of this line is that Kansas is undefeated in the early part of the season after playing a group of mighty foes.  Heck they beat Northern Colorado – isn’t Northern Colorado the school that had one punter try to kill another punter for playing time?  If the competition is that fierce for the PUNTER spot can you imagine what the other starters had to do to win their spots?  Man…great job Kansas.

Iowa State is 3-2 and their only “bad” loss was a 35-3 pounding from Iowa, but let’s break that loss down.  Iowa is undefeated, knocked off Penn State, and historically OWNS Iowa State.  I’m not sure why there is much surprise that Iowa State couldn’t get their act together for that game.  Iowa State also lost to Kansas State – by a point.  That’s not an awful loss, an awful loss would be to lose to them by like 21.  The fact of the matter is Iowa State cannot play at home, I think that is in part due to the fact that their fans don’t like them very much.  I like Iowa State on the road more than I like them at home.  19 points was just enough to get me to jump on that bandwagon.

Game 3

UCONN +6.5

@

Pitt -6.5

I think there is one rule when you bet on the stach, it’s that you keep riding it when it’s hot.  And coach Dave has it going for Pitt.

The best part of this line is that when I looked at UCONN I saw that they are a pretty bad team, with some questionable wins that helped the betting public justify giving them only 6.5.  They beat Ohio, Baylor, and Rhode Island.  Rhode Island hasn’t been good at anything since Lamar Odom promised his grandmother that he would stay in school…then left after his freshman year.  We’ll call it the curse of Lamar’s grandma.  I’m not really sure there is anything nice I can say about UCONN this season.  I don’t like teams that use 2 QBs.  I don’t like teams that rotate running backs AND quarterbacks even more!  And that’s UCONN.  Look, they suck and I’m not sure playing bad non-conference teams should have changed anyone’s mind about that.

Pittsburgh, where to start?  Coach Dave, as I call him…being from Chicago and watching him do nothing with the Bears makes me feel like Dave and I grew real close during his press conferences when he kept telling everyone that all the pieces were in place…well then what the heck happened Dave?  Do you suck at Puzzles or something and have no idea what the picture is supposed to look like so you just throw shit all over?!?!  Damnit Dave…Damnit…anyway what I think I’m trying to say is that Coach Dave is a better college coach than pro coach and he should get some props.  He is a pretty good recruiter and even though he lost a great back he picked up another one in Dion Lewis.  Dion should have a pretty good game against UCONN – hell the Rhode Island back went for 21 yards against them, that had to be a career, if not school, record.  Take Pitt…enjoy the money.

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Week 2: 3 Pack

September 10th, 2009

I had a little bit a trouble this week picking lines, there are some very interesting match ups out there and some of them are going to be super hard to pick.

That said, I think I was able to find 3 good ones.

Game 1

Colorado – 4

@

Toledo +4

Clearly the people are against Colorado.  After a loss to CSU in a game where neither team looked that good Colorado hits the road to beautiful Toledo, Ohio.  Yep, beautiful.  The moral of the story in this game is that the CSU game probably has some bettors in shock, but what they are ignoring is the fact that Toledo is very very bad.  If Colorado sucks, and I’m not debating that, then Toledo REALLY sucks.

That said Colorado has a lot of very talented players and a crazy coach, in my book that equals a win.  Toledo has less talent and a fairly sane coach, that equals a loss.  If you ever get a line where a bottom of the run MAC team is given anything less than 7 points you take the other team, no matter what.  The bottom of the MAC is about as bad as you can be with being the ACC or Sun Belt.  Take Colorado and the fighting Hawkins give Toledo 4 points and call it a win!!!!

Game 2

Syracuse +28.5

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Penn State -28.5

Greg Paulus is a former Duke point guard and a current Syracuse QB, nothing is going to rattle him on the football field.  Seriously, watching him last week you kind of get the vibe out of him that he’s the senior in the freshman biology class who’s taking that class just because he couldn’t get another study hall.  He knows what to do, when to do it, and can probably get through things with his eyes closed.  He isn’t going to get an A in the class but he knows what he has to do to pass and he’s going to do it, his way.  The beauty of having a QB like that is that he probably isn’t ever going to go on Tilt and he’s going to be steady.  Did he make a HUGE mistake at the end of the game vs. Minnesota?  Yep.  Did he make any huge mistakes prior to that?  Not really.  He ran the game like a PG.  The best thing about the week 1 game is that Syracuse found out they have a rough around the edges superstar in Mike Williams.  Sure he had a few drops but he also had 94 yards and a score.  If there is one thing point guards are good at it’s finding the big guys in traffic and Mike Williams is that (6’2 204).

The problem?  They play Penn State.  Penn State IS the best team in the Big 10.  Don’t let the Ohio State every season, pre season, hype fool you.  Penn state may have lost a lot of weapons at WR but still managed to put up 31…against a bad MAC team.  What you have to understand about bad MAC teams is that they aren’t just a little bad, they are real bad, and if you only put up 31 it’s either because you aren’t trying or you suck.  Penn State wasn’t trying to run up the score and I don’t think they will against the Orange either.  That, my friends, is why we take Syracuse.  Give me 28.5, and I’ll bet that Greg Paulus will protect that football.

Game 3

Iowa -6.5

@

Iowa State +6.5
This game is a rivalry, and rivalries should be treated like the plague when betting, except in this case.  It’s like the perfect storm hit and you can make one of the easiest bets of the week.  Iowa nearly lost to Northern Iowa, but they didn’t.  Northern Iowa was treating that game like the Super Bowl, and Iowa was treating it like an opening week game vs. a FCS opponent.  Iowa State handled their business vs. North Dakota State and now they are benefiting from a skewed line and bettors on tilt.

The truth is Iowa State isn’t good.  Iowa is good.  Their first week games aren’t showing that, but it’s what the facts are.  When Iowa gives Iowa State less than a touchdown it’s a good thing.

Last season Iowa State put up 5, yep 5, points against Iowa.  I’m thinking they are going to put up MAYBE double that this year?  Iowa has an offense that can score.  Sure they lost a TON from last season but Stanzi to Moeaki is going to be a combo that kills Iowa State.

This is a no brainer.  Take Iowa and give the 6.5.

Come back on Monday and let’s see how we did!

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