Bow Tie Betting Football

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

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Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

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NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

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Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

I had a little bit a trouble this week picking lines, there are some very interesting match ups out there and some of them are going to be super hard to pick.

That said, I think I was able to find 3 good ones.

Game 1

Colorado – 4

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Toledo +4

Clearly the people are against Colorado.  After a loss to CSU in a game where neither team looked that good Colorado hits the road to beautiful Toledo, Ohio.  Yep, beautiful.  The moral of the story in this game is that the CSU game probably has some bettors in shock, but what they are ignoring is the fact that Toledo is very very bad.  If Colorado sucks, and I’m not debating that, then Toledo REALLY sucks.

That said Colorado has a lot of very talented players and a crazy coach, in my book that equals a win.  Toledo has less talent and a fairly sane coach, that equals a loss.  If you ever get a line where a bottom of the run MAC team is given anything less than 7 points you take the other team, no matter what.  The bottom of the MAC is about as bad as you can be with being the ACC or Sun Belt.  Take Colorado and the fighting Hawkins give Toledo 4 points and call it a win!!!!

Game 2

Syracuse +28.5

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Penn State -28.5

Greg Paulus is a former Duke point guard and a current Syracuse QB, nothing is going to rattle him on the football field.  Seriously, watching him last week you kind of get the vibe out of him that he’s the senior in the freshman biology class who’s taking that class just because he couldn’t get another study hall.  He knows what to do, when to do it, and can probably get through things with his eyes closed.  He isn’t going to get an A in the class but he knows what he has to do to pass and he’s going to do it, his way.  The beauty of having a QB like that is that he probably isn’t ever going to go on Tilt and he’s going to be steady.  Did he make a HUGE mistake at the end of the game vs. Minnesota?  Yep.  Did he make any huge mistakes prior to that?  Not really.  He ran the game like a PG.  The best thing about the week 1 game is that Syracuse found out they have a rough around the edges superstar in Mike Williams.  Sure he had a few drops but he also had 94 yards and a score.  If there is one thing point guards are good at it’s finding the big guys in traffic and Mike Williams is that (6’2 204).

The problem?  They play Penn State.  Penn State IS the best team in the Big 10.  Don’t let the Ohio State every season, pre season, hype fool you.  Penn state may have lost a lot of weapons at WR but still managed to put up 31…against a bad MAC team.  What you have to understand about bad MAC teams is that they aren’t just a little bad, they are real bad, and if you only put up 31 it’s either because you aren’t trying or you suck.  Penn State wasn’t trying to run up the score and I don’t think they will against the Orange either.  That, my friends, is why we take Syracuse.  Give me 28.5, and I’ll bet that Greg Paulus will protect that football.

Game 3

Iowa -6.5

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Iowa State +6.5
This game is a rivalry, and rivalries should be treated like the plague when betting, except in this case.  It’s like the perfect storm hit and you can make one of the easiest bets of the week.  Iowa nearly lost to Northern Iowa, but they didn’t.  Northern Iowa was treating that game like the Super Bowl, and Iowa was treating it like an opening week game vs. a FCS opponent.  Iowa State handled their business vs. North Dakota State and now they are benefiting from a skewed line and bettors on tilt.

The truth is Iowa State isn’t good.  Iowa is good.  Their first week games aren’t showing that, but it’s what the facts are.  When Iowa gives Iowa State less than a touchdown it’s a good thing.

Last season Iowa State put up 5, yep 5, points against Iowa.  I’m thinking they are going to put up MAYBE double that this year?  Iowa has an offense that can score.  Sure they lost a TON from last season but Stanzi to Moeaki is going to be a combo that kills Iowa State.

This is a no brainer.  Take Iowa and give the 6.5.

Come back on Monday and let’s see how we did!