Bow Tie Betting Football

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

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Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

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NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

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Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

After a 3-1 week you really hope to improve and hit that perfect 4-0 without any sort of let down.  I call it the Ohio State factor, sure you can make it to the big game, but who cares if you don’t win?

Michigan State   -8

Indiana              +8

I have to take Michigan State here.  Indiana isn’t a bad team, I just think coming off a week when they were smacked around by Ball State that they are going to have a hard time getting their head into this one if things start to go bad early.  It will be close, but I think that Michigan State will probably pull it off by 10.

North Carolina    +8

Miami             -8

Last week I would not have taken Miami, I would have picked North Carolina.  The only problem with this week’s UNC squad is that their starting QB is out, and they have John Shoop as an OC.  John Shoop is known (by Bears fans) as the only guy to call a 3 yard pass on 3rd and 4.  It’s just a bad system for the NFL, it’s an OK system in the college game if you have a QB who is comfortable enough to have a quick release and the athletes to turn that 3 yard pass into an 8 – 10 yard gain.  They have one half of that equation this week.

Northern Illinois   -6.5

Eastern Michigan       +6.5

Northern comes in fresh off an offensive explosion, and EMU comes fresh off a non explosive performance.  Looking at the line I think the only reason it is this close is that NIU enters the game with their backup QB taking the helm.  So why pick NIU?  Their backup is really their starter.  Say what?  Their backup, is actually the guy who should have been starting but an injury put him down, now an injury to the other guy puts him back in.  Dan Nicholson (the SENIOR qb for NIU) is going to have a nice game, the NIU D finally put in a full game, and EMU is just a bad team (who also happens to have a backup QB in).

Purdue        +1

Notre Dame   -1

Rivalry Game!!!!  That’s right folks it’s rivalry time!  Wooooooooooo.  Someone get excited about this outside of Indiana…try it.  This should be a fun game, a bad Purdue D takes on a bad Notre Dame O, watch out folks!  Seriously though, Purdue held a very talented CMU team off for a win and it’s not often (if ever?) you say this but Notre Dame isn’t CMU on offense.  Ask any defensive coordinator this year if he would rather face a CMU offense or the genius’s Notre Dame attack.  The answer CMU.  So…I guess what I’m saying is Notre Dame isn’t going to win this game, the fact you get a point means you can in theory push.  Take Purdue in that case.

This isn’t a week full of great picks, I would suggest that perhaps you cut your betting in half this week and let whatever happens happen.  You can feel good about the Miami game probably, but Miami has been known for blowing it as much in the 00′s as the have been known for being amazing in the 90′s and early 00′s.

Tomorrow marks the return of “The Machine”.  The best computer picker in all of the land!  And by best I mean my favorite.

Side note, if 4-0 for me is Christina Augilera, for the machine is it the “Femisapien”?

Femisapien? I guess "The Machine" has good taste.

Would you rather Christina or the Femisapien?