Bow Tie Betting Football

Week 1

Northern Illinois

@

Iowa State

I like Northern Illinois in this season kick off game.  Why?  Because Northern Illinois and Iowa State are mirrors – with Iowa State having that shine of a Big 12 team without all that pesky talent to weigh them down.  Northern Illinois plays in the MAC and carrys the talent of a lower level Big 12 team like Iowa State.  The most perfect matchup for a “small” conference school vs. a BCS school is one early in the season, without a major gap in talent.

You also have to consider the fact that the upperclassmen on Northern Illinois football team have played in large BCS stadiums before and will not have any trouble adjusting to the “noise” at Jack Trice Stadium.

Week 2

Colorado

@

California

I like Colorado in this game.  Why?  Because these aren’t intramurals Brother!

Dan Hawkins is questioned by Mean Gene

Mean Gene…the best interviewer in the game.  And if Hawkins can go toe to toe with him, he sure as hell can beat up Cal.

On the subject of Mean Gene is there a guy who can keep a straight face during an awful interview better than him?

I don’t know about you but I would have been like…wait…can he say that?  I mean…he is black…so…is this cool?

And, one last note about this game, I have a feeling if someone were to give that type of interview, complete with blooper, it would be Dan Hawkins.  No doubt about it.

Week 3

Alabama

@

Duke

I like Duke here.  Why?  Because if you click on the ESPN schedule you’ll see that Cincinnati is playing North Carolina AND North Carolina State…AT THE SAME TIME.  (How’s that for my Chewbacca defense?)

Week 4

Western Kentucky

@

South Florida

I like Western Kentucky here.  Why?  Because the truth is that Skip Holtz isn’t near as crazy as Jim Leavitt “To Beaver” was.  And if you hire a coach who isn’t crazy, AFTER you had a coach who was crazy, you won’t win.  I think it has more to do with players playing well because they’re scared of their coach.  I mean if you like a coach you’ll run through a wall for him (which in football would be counter-productive because the wall could trip you up) but if you’re scared of a coach you’ll run OVER or AROUND the wall (which works for football.)  Game-Set-Match.

Week 5

UL – Monroe

@

Auburn

I’m going to take UL-Monroe.  Why?  I don’t know.  After week 1 my picks are pretty much a toss up.  Anything can happen between week 1 and week 5 in college football.  Teams can literally implode in less time than that.  Also – you look at the schedule and find me a game that you can’t say is at best a 5 or 6 point spread and then I’ll listen to you.  This week has too many close games – so by default UL- Monroe has to beat Auburn.

Week 6

Oklahoma State

@

UL – Lafayette

I’m gonna take UL Lafayette here…

No reason.  Just because.  It’s a home game UL-Lafayette is poised to have a pretty solid year.  Mid-Season away games for BCS @ Non-BCS teams make me nervous for the BCS team.  ULL should win this one.  (That’s a serious pick.)

Week 7

Cincinnati

@

Louisville

I’m going to take Louisville here, but Louisville hasn’t been good in a long…long time.  You know what they have that is good:

Becca Manns - Cheerleader, Naked Chick.

Ohhhh…you don’t know Becca Manns?  Here you go you can read up on it:  Becca Manns Former Louisville Cheerleader

Week 8

Purdue

@

Ohio State

I like Purdue here.  You know how I talked about the fact teams could implode this upcomming season?  The #1 team on the “implode watch” is Ohio State.  Something just doesn’t feel right up there.  I don’t know what it is – maybe the fact their “rival” Michigan sucks…and they don’t have a ton to look forward to?  I don’t know.  It just feels like a weird game for Ohio State.  Oh yeah, Purdue beat Ohio State last season AND they have a transfer QB (Marve) from Miami.  I don’t know about you but Purdue is looking better and better to me.

Week 9

Baylor

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Texas

I like Baylor.  But I’m not sure at this point in the season if it’s going to be an upset.  Sure Texas ALWAYS has the best players, but they are giving me an Ohio State type vibe this season.  Something is right.  Maybe it was Coach Brown at the NFL draft, but I don’t think I like their team this year.

Week 10

Iowa

@

Indiana

Indiana is at home.  That’s good right?

Week 11

South Carolina

@

Florida

The Ol’ Ball Coach is due…he’s gotta be.  And Urban Meyer coming back as quickly as he has kind of makes me nervous about his long term and short term health.  Because of that I go with the other USC.

Week 12

Mississippi

@

LSU

I hate to pick against LSU here, I really do, but I kind of think Ole Miss is in a better place with what’s his name being gone…you know…the leader of your team and school who did nothing but tear it apart???  You know the guy who was out there trying to get some poon when he should have been focused on his job…and that was helping the team get more wins.  You know who I mean…he wasn’t drafted this year for a reason – and he was booted from the school:

Colonel Reb...wasn't drafted.

Week 13

Boston College

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Syracuse

Syracuse has a newish coach – and a new system that will be more in place now that it ever was.  Of course we can say that for every week this season, but still.

Week 14

Washington

@

Washington State

Washington State isn’t great, I know this, but they’re due.  Aren’t they?  Have I already said they’re due as a reason a team should win this season?  I have?  Crap.  Well I’m using it again.

Week 15

Navy

@

Army

Well…it’s the only game this week – and I had to pick an upset…so…Army!  The truth is Army is getting better and better I’m not even sure that an Army win at “home” this year will be an upset.  I really don’t think it will be in fact, but I’m taking them anyway.

There you have it!  My SUPER DUPER early pick for upsets this season…that’s right…upset picks before the 2-deeps are out and this year of school has ended.

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

@

Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

@

NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

@

Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

Last week:  2-1

Going 2-1 is never bad, it means we won money.  You hate to have your efforts for a 3-0 day be dashed on the last game, but what can you do?  NIU blew their chances to put Toledo away and ended up losing the game outright.  Well done NIU, well done.

Game 1

Georgia Tech -6

@

Virginia +6

Let’s look at this line like mature adults, Georgia Tech is 6-1, the only team they lost to is Miami.  Virginia is 3-3 and lost to William and Mary.  Do I need to go on?  No.  But I will.

Virgina is on a 3 game “hot” streak.  Their wins are against the traditional powerhouses of Indiana, Maryland, and North Carolina.  So what if the best record out of the bunch is 4-3?  They are all great teams.  Honestly, they aren’t great, they’re terrible teams who have played even worse teams to get them the 4-3 records.  Let’s be fair here, Virginia does have an OK QB – and by OK I mean he throws as many TDs as INTs – when you’re Virginia you’ll take that.  The truth is they aren’t great/good/average at anything.  They win games when other teams TRY to give them the win, and even then it’s not a sure thing.

Georgia Tech 6-1, triple option, power run game, and in this game no need to pass.  It’s perfect really.  The way Virginia wins games is when other teams hand them the ball – well when you run the triple option it reduces at least one avenue of turnover, the INT.  Does Georgia Tech still fumble?  Yep.  When you run it as much as they do you are bound to fumble the ball a few times over the course of the season, however Virginia doesn’t have the players to stop the triple option attack for a full 4 quarters.  If this line was around 10 maybe it would be a question, but when it’s less than a touchdown you thank the lines makers and move on.  Take GT, give the points, and buy yourself a nice lunch before the evening games.

Game 2

LA Tech +1

@

Utah State -1

Let me ask you something, when is the last time that you ever said to yourself “Utah State is only giving up ___ number of points?!?!  That’s a gift!”  If you’re like me, and the rest of the world, the answer to that question is never.

Utah State is 1-5, so they have that going for them…their win?  Well it was a barn-burning victory over the vaunted squad from South Utah.  When State plays South you throw out the records, cause both squads want a win.   Let me stop right here and be honest, I can’t find anything nice to say about Utah State.  I just can’t.  I want to find a stat that helps me understand why they are favored but I can’t.  I mean I looked at their most recent common opponent in New Mexico State.  Utah State lost by a score of 20-17 and LA Tech won by a score of 45-7.  The only thing that it could possibly be is that Utah State played Nevada VERY close last week.  They only lost by 3 points.  Which is some kind of miracle.

LA Tech has a good team.  They aren’t great, but they will win this game.  So because they will win this game the 1 point line is kind of a joke.  I would tell you to take LA Tech and the money line but there isn’t one posted yet.  So if you can get in on it, take the money line, if you can’t take the point.  Either way LA Tech wins this game.

Game 3

Idaho +15.5

@

Nevada

If you don’t pay attention to college football you may be kind of confused by this pick.  Idaho is 6-1, and Nevada is 3-3.  both teams are running through their WAC foes with little resistance.  So if anything this should be a close game, but no not the way the lines makers see it.

Nevada has one win that I would consider nice, they pounded LA Tech.  Outside of that their 2 wins were against lesser foes, and one lesser foe they let stay in the game (Utah State.)  They lost to some fairly poor squads too, I don’t want to call anyone out…COLORADO STATE…but some teams that Nevada lost to you have to wonder how they lost to that Junior High team?  Nevada SHOULD be good.  They really should be.  They have a host of great running backs, the returning WAC player of the year, everything shouts GOOD TEAM!  But they just aren’t.  Something is wrong this year.  I don’t know if they have locker room issues, or if things got to their ego, but they aren’t the team they should be.  It doesn’t look to me like they are going to snap out of anything any time soon.

Idaho, the best kept secret in NCAA football.  I’m not kidding when I say this, they have an NFL QB that no one even talks about!  Nathan Enderle is a Junior QB with the size and arm strength that would have NFL scouts and ESPN jerks creating a ton of hype IF he played somewhere that was not the WAC, more specifically Idaho.  Enderle is 6’5 227 and just starting to figure things out on the field this year.  It isn’t often that you can say Idaho has an NFL anything, and to call him a high round draft pick in 2011 may seem insane, but I’m telling you he will be.  This Nevada game is going to be his coming out party, the funny thing is with the line it doesn’t even have to be.  They are 15.5 point dogs.  All he has to do is not make it his meltdown party and everything will be fine.

One thing that I’ve found is that teams that aren’t used to winning, that have a big game, usually play a little bit better on the road.  I don’t know why – and I don’t have a ton of stats to back me up, I’m just saying Idaho will do just fine.  I’d be tempted to take the money line on this one too, but because we don’t do that here I’m just telling you take 15.5 points and be happy the betting gods smiled on oyu.

Coming off a 3-0 week with your picks is never easy.  You can’t top what you just did and the only way you can logically travel is down the mountain.

At bowtie betting we have made it a habit of falling off the top of a mountain as gracefully as we can, and this week I think we are going to stay up there awhile.

Game 1:

Mississippi  -4.5

@

South Carolina  +4.5

I hate betting on USC, any USC, and this week I’m going against my feelings for them to bet with my brain.  Mississippi is by far the highest ranked team to ever not play anyone.  Last year they lost to South Carolina at home.  I know someone out there will say, “But that’s the game after they beat Florida!”  And I would agree with that statement, but not agree with it for being the reason that they lost the game.  If they came out flat, then I could believe it, but they actually came out strong and put up 14 in the first quarter on USC for a 14-3 lead after one.  The lost that lead.  It had nothing to do with Florida, if anything they were riding high then came down to Earth.

Ole Miss handled a terrible Memphis team 45 – 14.  But consider the fact that 28 points came in the 4th quarter.  In fact 21 came in the last 6 minutes or so.  MTSU put a better beat down on Memphis (we are counting consistent scoring…not total margin of win.)  I think Ole Miss is a better team than they have been in the past, but they aren’t ‘Great’ and they aren’t 4.5 points better.

The thing about USC is that I’m not a fan.  South Carolina just irks me, I don’t know why.  Maybe it’s because they are the most frustrating team to watch in the world.  Who calls their plays on offense?  Score some friggin’ points, because you should!  That doesn’t mean they suck.

My pick:

South Carolina Gamecocks

Game 2:

Arkansas + 17.5

@

Alabama – 17.5

In a battle of teams that both have coaches that I hate I picked the team with the coach I hate the most.  Why?  Because he needs this win.  The world already hates him, but at least he has won before.  If he keeps losing the world will just hate him and he’ll have nothing to fall back on!

Alabama, put the hurting on 2 crappy teams and played a fairly close game with Virgina Tech to open the year.  I don’t know about you but beating North Texas doesn’t make me feel like you are that great of a team.  Julio Jones and Roy Upchurch may not play.  That doesn’t make me feel better about them.

Arkansas, where do I begin?  Your coach is an ass-hat and you are 0-1 ATS.  That said you dropped 41 on Georgia.  I like that kind of party – and there’s nothing more dangerous than a cocky bastard who’s fighting to keep being a cocky bastard and not an idiot loser (Kanye West anyone?)  Sometimes it doesn’t work out, but in this case I’m feeling it.

My Pick:

Arkansas...tough looking mascot if you ask me

Game 3:

Arizona State +12

@

Georgia -12

I really want to pick Arizona State and here’s why:

ASU Hottest Fans Ever

But they are making a fairly long trip to Georgia AND they aren’t really that good of a team.  Georgia manages to screw things up from time to time, but I don’t see this one being that close.

My Pick:

Georgia

I’m not here to gloat…well yes, yes I am.

3-0 in Week 3!

It’s a strong feeling.

Ball State and Army was a tight game, exactly what I thought it would be.  Ball State is awful this year, but are they EMU awful or Duke awful?  I think what we found out was that Ball State is probably equally as bad as EMU but had a few more lucky bounces and plays to keep the game within 8.5.  Great job Ball State!

Tenn @ Florida was an equally surprising game.  Who thought that Tenn would be able to keep the game as close as they did?  The thing that people tend to forget about good programs when they have bad years is that they still recruit 4 and 5 star players, and in theory they can still play.  In big games you usually see guys who seem to have been asleep for the better part of their years on campus start to wake up and play up to a level everyone thought they would.  I think this line had more to do with Kiffin’s mouth than it did with the guys on the field.  It’s lines like this you have to try to seek out each week.

NIU @ Purdue.  What a crazy game!  I didn’t think that NIU would outright win the game but they did.  Coach Jerry Kill is 3-0 ATS vs. BCS Schools.  He gets his guys up to play big games.  Purdue was flat out as bad as everyone thought they would be to start the season.  One win over Toledo gave their fans a little bit too much pride.  I wandered over to the Purdue message boards before making my picks to learn of any injuries or things that fans might have heard, and what I found was that their fans thought they would score over 50 points.  Whoops.  I’ll tell you what I saw about Purdue that I hated – they have no class.  Take a look at this right hook I found on YouTube while I was searching for some highlights of the game:

You can tell you really got beat down when you have to throw a punch.  Oregon anyone?

It feels good to have a 3-0 week, so get out there and spend your extra money on something nice for yourself and get ready to come back next week for another great week of picks!

I had a little bit a trouble this week picking lines, there are some very interesting match ups out there and some of them are going to be super hard to pick.

That said, I think I was able to find 3 good ones.

Game 1

Colorado – 4

@

Toledo +4

Clearly the people are against Colorado.  After a loss to CSU in a game where neither team looked that good Colorado hits the road to beautiful Toledo, Ohio.  Yep, beautiful.  The moral of the story in this game is that the CSU game probably has some bettors in shock, but what they are ignoring is the fact that Toledo is very very bad.  If Colorado sucks, and I’m not debating that, then Toledo REALLY sucks.

That said Colorado has a lot of very talented players and a crazy coach, in my book that equals a win.  Toledo has less talent and a fairly sane coach, that equals a loss.  If you ever get a line where a bottom of the run MAC team is given anything less than 7 points you take the other team, no matter what.  The bottom of the MAC is about as bad as you can be with being the ACC or Sun Belt.  Take Colorado and the fighting Hawkins give Toledo 4 points and call it a win!!!!

Game 2

Syracuse +28.5

@

Penn State -28.5

Greg Paulus is a former Duke point guard and a current Syracuse QB, nothing is going to rattle him on the football field.  Seriously, watching him last week you kind of get the vibe out of him that he’s the senior in the freshman biology class who’s taking that class just because he couldn’t get another study hall.  He knows what to do, when to do it, and can probably get through things with his eyes closed.  He isn’t going to get an A in the class but he knows what he has to do to pass and he’s going to do it, his way.  The beauty of having a QB like that is that he probably isn’t ever going to go on Tilt and he’s going to be steady.  Did he make a HUGE mistake at the end of the game vs. Minnesota?  Yep.  Did he make any huge mistakes prior to that?  Not really.  He ran the game like a PG.  The best thing about the week 1 game is that Syracuse found out they have a rough around the edges superstar in Mike Williams.  Sure he had a few drops but he also had 94 yards and a score.  If there is one thing point guards are good at it’s finding the big guys in traffic and Mike Williams is that (6’2 204).

The problem?  They play Penn State.  Penn State IS the best team in the Big 10.  Don’t let the Ohio State every season, pre season, hype fool you.  Penn state may have lost a lot of weapons at WR but still managed to put up 31…against a bad MAC team.  What you have to understand about bad MAC teams is that they aren’t just a little bad, they are real bad, and if you only put up 31 it’s either because you aren’t trying or you suck.  Penn State wasn’t trying to run up the score and I don’t think they will against the Orange either.  That, my friends, is why we take Syracuse.  Give me 28.5, and I’ll bet that Greg Paulus will protect that football.

Game 3

Iowa -6.5

@

Iowa State +6.5
This game is a rivalry, and rivalries should be treated like the plague when betting, except in this case.  It’s like the perfect storm hit and you can make one of the easiest bets of the week.  Iowa nearly lost to Northern Iowa, but they didn’t.  Northern Iowa was treating that game like the Super Bowl, and Iowa was treating it like an opening week game vs. a FCS opponent.  Iowa State handled their business vs. North Dakota State and now they are benefiting from a skewed line and bettors on tilt.

The truth is Iowa State isn’t good.  Iowa is good.  Their first week games aren’t showing that, but it’s what the facts are.  When Iowa gives Iowa State less than a touchdown it’s a good thing.

Last season Iowa State put up 5, yep 5, points against Iowa.  I’m thinking they are going to put up MAYBE double that this year?  Iowa has an offense that can score.  Sure they lost a TON from last season but Stanzi to Moeaki is going to be a combo that kills Iowa State.

This is a no brainer.  Take Iowa and give the 6.5.

Come back on Monday and let’s see how we did!

So often people seem to think there is a system when picking the outcome of sporting events, and so often something like the Kentucky Derby happens.  A 50 – 1 LONGGGGGGGG shot manages to come out of no where and win the whole darn event.  The interesting thing to point out is that the 50-1 odds seem to indicate that someone, somewhere was betting on him.

So how did they do it?  Was there a system that was used that made this 50-1 long shot an obvious choice?  No.  It was simple mathmatics.  Often times some gamblers do not pick the horse/team/whatever that they think is going to win, they pick the team that has the best ROI with a decent chance to win.

What does that mean?  It means it was the Kentucky Derby, just about every horse in that race has some sort of hype behind it – be it the horses sire, or past performances, the moral of the story is that every horse had a chance.  And that was even more aparent when the early line and morning line favorite “I Want Revenge” was a late scratch.

So how does this apply to football – it’s simple really, teams that are supposed to win, don’t always win.  Not something that should be a shock to anyone, but the key is to find 3 or 4 teams to select who offer a fair ROI and have a chance in the game.  For example, Ole’ Miss v. Florida this season.  Why would anyone bet on Ole’ Miss?  Ole’ Miss is an SEC team, and for as bad as they have been they still were able to bring in some solid SEC type recruits.  They had a coach now who knows how to win in the SEC – and their QB was a transfer from Texas where he was supposed to be the next big thing, not Colt McCoy (according to Rivals Snead was only ranked slightly below Tebow.)  Couple with those factors the fact that Florida probably felt like they could walk over a team like Ole’ Miss and you have a recipe for an upset.

Now how many times does it happen that you have a recipe for an upset, and it doesn’t work out.  The favorite goes out and destroys that poor underdog – I’d say fairly often.  That’s why some would suggest you hedge your bets with 3 or 4 upsets that could happen, and not just on a miracle but based on some form of research.  Ole’ Miss is a team that you can keep your eye on as an “underdog” this season.  They have some talent, they won’t pull out a ton of wins in the SEC, but they will win SOME.

That’s just one type of “betting Theory” out there, keeping an eye on ROI not what you think is going to happen.  In fact this betting theory doesn’t suggest you bet on games you feel “good” about but games you feel least bad about.

The beauty of the NCAA football season is that it is so long that you can always find a game to bet on for about 6 months in a row.  Sadly, that’s also the worst thing about it.

When the season ends there really isn’t anything left to bet on, unless of course you like to bet on baseball or the NBA playoffs.

Here are some quick tips:

1)  When betting on baseball always bet against the Cubs.  100 years + of history can’t be wrong.  (In all seriousness the Cubs are going to do a TON of winning, the only problem is they will win the most 1 run games in history.  Take the runs and the underdog when playing the Cubs.)

2)  The Celtics don’t care about the Playoffs.  Ray Allen is too old to care, and Paul Pierce doesn’t have Kevin Garnett on the court to make him care about the game.  Their opening round series with the Bulls will end with the Bulls winning in 5 games (or at least winning ATS in 4 of 5 games).

3)  Wait a week or 2 then start to put money against the Marlins.  They are a scrappy young team, the problem with young teams like that is once they are expected to win they won’t.  So wait till the run lines start to respect the Marlins then jump on that one.

4)  The Mariners are going to be for real (in terms of betting).  They aren’t blowing anyone away, but are winning the games they shouldn’t ATS.

5)  Cleveland won’t lose a game in the first round.  You can rid them ATS into the 2nd round.

6)  The Lakers are good.  Very Good.  ATS they are not that good.  If you want, take the Lakers striaght up, but stay away from that line.

7)  Portland is a team to bet on.  Too young to really care about what is going on – I think they’ll win a bunch of games ATS.

8)  The Yankees?  No.

9)  San Antonio?  No.

10)  Take the Bulls in games 1 and 2 Money line.  They are going to win them both.

With Purdue having their best returning offensive player, and starting quarterback, dismissed from campus for 3 semesters for “Academic Violations” Purdue is a team to watch.  Why?  Well let’s take a look at the 2009 schedule:

2009-2010 SCHEDULE ( Click on an event for complete event information )

Date	Opponent / Event	Location	Time / Result
09/05/09	vs. Toledo	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
09/12/09	at Oregon	Eugene, Ore.	TBA
09/19/09	vs. Northern Illinois	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
09/26/09	vs. Notre Dame	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/03/09	vs. Northwestern	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/10/09	at Minnesota	Minneapolis, Minn.	TBA
10/17/09	vs. Ohio State	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/24/09	vs. Illinois	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
10/31/09	at Wisconsin	Madison, Wis.	TBA
11/07/09	at Michigan	Ann Arbor, Mich.	TBA
11/14/09	vs. Michigan State	West Lafayette, Ind.	TBA
11/21/09	at Indiana	Bloomington, Ind.	TBA

Why do I like this schedule, 2 reasons:  Toledo and Northern Illinois.  If you are Big 10 Purdue you are going to be the favorite vs. a Bad MAC team in Toledo and a strange MAC team in Northern Illinois.  What I like best about this is that Purdue will go 0-3 in their first 3 games and most likely will go 1-2 ATS (I think whatever the line is vs. Oregon they will end up covering.)

I’ve always liked betting MAC teams early in the season vs. BCS foes.  They most likely will not win the games but they will pound the spread (Look at NIU vs. Minnesota last season that I picked in week 1.)

Justin Siller being dismissed is terrible news for Purdue fans and that young man, but great news for the MAC squad.  The good news is that Purdue still has their cheerleaders!

Hey...Purdue has good looking cheerleaders!

Hey...Purdue has good looking cheerleaders!

Before I post my first mock draft this week I’d like to do something nice for the fans of Detroit.  I’m going to take your last place, we can’t win a game, team and turn them into a winner with a few moves before and during the NFL draft.

The first thing the Lions need to do is move from their spot at #1, I don’t think anyone in the NFL is really 100% sold on Matthew Stafford being the next great QB let alone a guy who can crack the starting lineup and perform.  Paying a quarterback #1 draft pick money is next to crazy – what I would love to see them do is strike up some sort of conversation with Denver, which they were rumored to be doing anyway, and see if they could get the #12 pick and Cutler for the #1 overall and maybe a very late rounder (or just straight up).

The next move the lions need to make is to take the St. Louis Rams up on their broadcasted offer of Holt + Pace for a mid rounder.  Why do this?  You can pair a vet receiver with young mr. Johnson and get a guy to finish out his career at RT.  I’m not saying I don’t like the Backus or Cherilus/Foster combo – but I am saying that adding those 2 guys will help out your offense more than a little.  Orlando Pace is old, but at 33 he’s probably still better than anyone else you have.

I know it’s rebuilding time, but in the NFC North you are always 1 season away from being champion.

So now you have Cutler, the #12 pick, Orlando Pace, and Tory Holt – what’s the next move?

You have the #12 pick it’s time to make it work for you.  Most likely you will have a choice at that spot of any corner you want, most likely Jenkins didn’t do himself any favors with a sub par combine so you could pick from him or Vonte Davis.  I’d suggest drafting Davis with the #12 pick.

Guess what, you still have the #20 pick!  This pick is going to be tricky, you can do 1 of 2 things with it, grab the best guy out there or fill a need – good news, you’re the lions you’ll probably end up doing both no matter what happens.  Again, a spot you would look to trade down if you could – but if by some miracle a guy like Knowshon Moreno and STILL have traded down you deserve a pat on the back.  But at this point I don’t like to look a gift horse in the mouth, you take Moreno if he is there OR you grab a defensive player that you like.  Personally I’m a fan of a guy like Ayers/English/Jerry/Mabin at this point in the round, but again it’s probably a reach.  The goal would be to trade down a few spots and settle on whatever defensive guy you can grab if you can’t get mr. Moreno.

Second round time – I would say it’s time for another move.  With the first pick in the second round someone is bound to slip and that’s when you take whatever offer you can get and slide down just a bit.  Or you can grab a guy like Jerry/mabin/ayers/english here if you went with Moreno in the first.  Which would be the ultimate high five to yourself.  The problem is that one of your huge needs is going to end up being linebacker, Paris Lennon has actually not done a terrible job for you – you’d love to wish Dizon could play football, but it just doesn’t look that way.  So you have to ask yourself at this point, need or highest rated?  Highest rated will fill a need, just not THE need.  So here’s what you do, if there wasn’t a slide guy that you wanted (read:  linebacker) you trade the pick if you can.  If not you take the best backer who is here, probably James Laurinaitis who happens to be sliding his way out of the first round.  What a great pick that would be.  That opens up a 3rd round choice of a TE – I’d go with whoever is there, probably Ingram with his missing the whole 2008 season and all.

So let’s review shall we?  If you Detroit Lions listen to me you’ll have:

QB  Jay Cutler

RB Knowshon Moreno

WR Tory Holt

OT Orlando Pace

CB Vonte Davis

LB James Laurinatis

TE Cornelious Ingram

And all of that after the 1st 3 rounds of the draft.  I assume you are going to have to give a 4th or 5th to STL and Denver to finish out those trades (maybe give them george foster back?)  Talk about an instant shot in the arm, you would be a contending team at least (in the NFC North) – and would have by far the best QB and WR in the conference.

Thank me later Detroit, or hire me as your GM…whatever is fine with me.