Bow Tie Betting Football

Week 1

Northern Illinois

@

Iowa State

I like Northern Illinois in this season kick off game.  Why?  Because Northern Illinois and Iowa State are mirrors – with Iowa State having that shine of a Big 12 team without all that pesky talent to weigh them down.  Northern Illinois plays in the MAC and carrys the talent of a lower level Big 12 team like Iowa State.  The most perfect matchup for a “small” conference school vs. a BCS school is one early in the season, without a major gap in talent.

You also have to consider the fact that the upperclassmen on Northern Illinois football team have played in large BCS stadiums before and will not have any trouble adjusting to the “noise” at Jack Trice Stadium.

Week 2

Colorado

@

California

I like Colorado in this game.  Why?  Because these aren’t intramurals Brother!

Dan Hawkins is questioned by Mean Gene

Mean Gene…the best interviewer in the game.  And if Hawkins can go toe to toe with him, he sure as hell can beat up Cal.

On the subject of Mean Gene is there a guy who can keep a straight face during an awful interview better than him?

I don’t know about you but I would have been like…wait…can he say that?  I mean…he is black…so…is this cool?

And, one last note about this game, I have a feeling if someone were to give that type of interview, complete with blooper, it would be Dan Hawkins.  No doubt about it.

Week 3

Alabama

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Duke

I like Duke here.  Why?  Because if you click on the ESPN schedule you’ll see that Cincinnati is playing North Carolina AND North Carolina State…AT THE SAME TIME.  (How’s that for my Chewbacca defense?)

Week 4

Western Kentucky

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South Florida

I like Western Kentucky here.  Why?  Because the truth is that Skip Holtz isn’t near as crazy as Jim Leavitt “To Beaver” was.  And if you hire a coach who isn’t crazy, AFTER you had a coach who was crazy, you won’t win.  I think it has more to do with players playing well because they’re scared of their coach.  I mean if you like a coach you’ll run through a wall for him (which in football would be counter-productive because the wall could trip you up) but if you’re scared of a coach you’ll run OVER or AROUND the wall (which works for football.)  Game-Set-Match.

Week 5

UL – Monroe

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Auburn

I’m going to take UL-Monroe.  Why?  I don’t know.  After week 1 my picks are pretty much a toss up.  Anything can happen between week 1 and week 5 in college football.  Teams can literally implode in less time than that.  Also – you look at the schedule and find me a game that you can’t say is at best a 5 or 6 point spread and then I’ll listen to you.  This week has too many close games – so by default UL- Monroe has to beat Auburn.

Week 6

Oklahoma State

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UL – Lafayette

I’m gonna take UL Lafayette here…

No reason.  Just because.  It’s a home game UL-Lafayette is poised to have a pretty solid year.  Mid-Season away games for BCS @ Non-BCS teams make me nervous for the BCS team.  ULL should win this one.  (That’s a serious pick.)

Week 7

Cincinnati

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Louisville

I’m going to take Louisville here, but Louisville hasn’t been good in a long…long time.  You know what they have that is good:

Becca Manns - Cheerleader, Naked Chick.

Ohhhh…you don’t know Becca Manns?  Here you go you can read up on it:  Becca Manns Former Louisville Cheerleader

Week 8

Purdue

@

Ohio State

I like Purdue here.  You know how I talked about the fact teams could implode this upcomming season?  The #1 team on the “implode watch” is Ohio State.  Something just doesn’t feel right up there.  I don’t know what it is – maybe the fact their “rival” Michigan sucks…and they don’t have a ton to look forward to?  I don’t know.  It just feels like a weird game for Ohio State.  Oh yeah, Purdue beat Ohio State last season AND they have a transfer QB (Marve) from Miami.  I don’t know about you but Purdue is looking better and better to me.

Week 9

Baylor

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Texas

I like Baylor.  But I’m not sure at this point in the season if it’s going to be an upset.  Sure Texas ALWAYS has the best players, but they are giving me an Ohio State type vibe this season.  Something is right.  Maybe it was Coach Brown at the NFL draft, but I don’t think I like their team this year.

Week 10

Iowa

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Indiana

Indiana is at home.  That’s good right?

Week 11

South Carolina

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Florida

The Ol’ Ball Coach is due…he’s gotta be.  And Urban Meyer coming back as quickly as he has kind of makes me nervous about his long term and short term health.  Because of that I go with the other USC.

Week 12

Mississippi

@

LSU

I hate to pick against LSU here, I really do, but I kind of think Ole Miss is in a better place with what’s his name being gone…you know…the leader of your team and school who did nothing but tear it apart???  You know the guy who was out there trying to get some poon when he should have been focused on his job…and that was helping the team get more wins.  You know who I mean…he wasn’t drafted this year for a reason – and he was booted from the school:

Colonel Reb...wasn't drafted.

Week 13

Boston College

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Syracuse

Syracuse has a newish coach – and a new system that will be more in place now that it ever was.  Of course we can say that for every week this season, but still.

Week 14

Washington

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Washington State

Washington State isn’t great, I know this, but they’re due.  Aren’t they?  Have I already said they’re due as a reason a team should win this season?  I have?  Crap.  Well I’m using it again.

Week 15

Navy

@

Army

Well…it’s the only game this week – and I had to pick an upset…so…Army!  The truth is Army is getting better and better I’m not even sure that an Army win at “home” this year will be an upset.  I really don’t think it will be in fact, but I’m taking them anyway.

There you have it!  My SUPER DUPER early pick for upsets this season…that’s right…upset picks before the 2-deeps are out and this year of school has ended.

Last Week:  2-1

Is going 2-1 ever bad?  No.  It’s always nice to win money, but it sucks when Idaho is the team that kills you.  There’s something about Idaho that should always just scream bad idea…no matter what context it’s being talked about.

Game 1

Akron +11

@

Bowling Green -11

Let’s review a few things:

1)  I think Akron is a terrible football team.

2)  Bowling Green is playing for their bowl life

3)  Bowling Green has THE BEST WR in college football in Freddie Barnes.

4)  Freddie Barnes, unlike a lot of other MAC player, shows up EVEN MORE against bad teams.

Take Bowling Green, give the points to a terrible Akron team that isn’t playing for anything.

Game 2

Iowa State +15

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Missouri -15

What a weird season it’s been in the Big 12 North.  There isn’t a team up there that is any good, outside of Nebraska…who I would call kind of good, and every single team looks the exact same.  I can’t tell the difference on the field between Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas, or Missouri!   And on top of that you really have to hand it to Iowa State, they are playing their butts off each and every week – it wasn’t always like that in cyclone city.

Due to those factors my friends, I’m taking Iowa State.

Game 3  (Line only found on Betus.com)

NIU  – PK

@

Ohio -PK

This is a pick em folks!  The battle of second place MAC foes who are fighting for the right to play the #1 team for the division crown!

NIU is in the MAC West and NEEDS to beat Ohio in order for their game next week to be for the MAC West title.  Ohio is from the MAC East and NEEDS to beat NIU in order for their game vs. Temple next week to be for the MAC East crown!  You see how this line can be a pick em’?

Why then do I think NIU will win?  Simple, the MAC West > MAC East in football.  The top of the MAC West (NIU & CMU) is miles ahead of the rest of the MAC.  The reason this line is a PK and off the board at other websites is that NIU is probably going to be without one of their top 2 backs.  Which one is still up in the air.  Both Me’co Brown (whom by the way is one of my favorite names in football…any time you get an apostrophe in your first name you’re doing it right) and Chad Spann have an injury that COULD keep them out.  Spann has a shoulder injury sustained late last week vs. Ball State and Me’co Brown has an ankle injury that has been bothering him for weeks.  None of this sounds great for the Huskies right?  Normally I’d say yes, but their 3rd STRING back Justin Anderson has rushed for over 1,200 yards and had over 45 catches IN ONE SEASON!  Why is he 3rd string now you ask?  From all I can gather coach Jerry Kill hates him.  I’m not sure why, but I do know Justin Anderson is a Joe Novak recruit.

Ohio, Frankie Solich.  I love Solich, if you’ve read my picks before you know I think he can out coach about 90% of the guys in D1 and he got a bad rap for having a great season at Nebraska (Hey, I bet they’d take 9-3 now!)  But I have to look past my fandom and accept the fact that his team isn’t that great.  Ohio was able to feast on an awful MAC East.  And by feast I mean they lost to Kent State…so I guess they had their lunch money stolen?  Look the point is that on the field and on paper Ohio doesn’t stack up.  The only place I have them miles ahead of NIU is in coaching.  Jerry Kill does some weird things from time to time in a game – and only he knows why.  He’s the Danny Hope of the MAC.  Even with Solich being miles and miles ahead of Kill I just can’t pick Ohio.  NIU should win by 2 scores, but Solich will keep it within one.

Last week I was 2-1 and a lightning strike away from being 3-0.  That lightning strike was just the inspiration that Bufflalo needed to keep it within 8 – anytime you are playing not to get fried you are playing the way God intended.

I’ll take a 2-1 week every week, as should you, it means profit, and profit is what we like!

Game 1

LA Tech +10.5

@

Nevada RENO -10.5

A few things about this game jump out at me right away, Nevada Reno is really gung-ho about making everyone say the “Reno” AND they are 1-3.  I’m not really sure which of those 2 things bugs me more.  Nevada should in theory be better than their 1-3 record, and I always thought they were better than someone who tried to give themselves a nickname.  Sure “Reno” isn’t a nickname – but that isn’t the point here.  The point is that they have just disappointed me on 2 levels.

In a serious look at Reno – I like the squad, hate the city, and the record.  They’ve lost to Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Missouri.  Their win was against a UNLV squad that looked like it didn’t want to be on the field with their “Rival”.  The weirdest thing about that game is that UNLV wasn’t as bad as they played on the field that day.  Which also implies that Reno isn’t as good as they played on the field that day.  The score was 63 – 28, however if we break it down it wasn’t really THAT bad of a game.  It was 21-21 at halftime and 35-28 to start the 4th.  It’s just when you let 28 points up in the 4th quarter generally things aren’t going to go as well as you want.

In a look at LA Tech I’ve come to the conclusion that I like their team.  They were only down 13-10 at half vs. a pretty darn good Auburn squad and ony down 14-18 going into the 4th against a VERY good Navy team.  Navy plays everyone hard and there is no shame in losing to them.  Beating Hawaii by a score of 27-6 last week was VERY impressive.  It’s hard to beat Hawaii, let alone hold them to 6 points.  I like LA Tech’s D enough to think that they can keep this one within 10.5.  Take LA Tech and the points tonight.

Game 2

Iowa State + 19

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Kansas – 19

Can someone explain to me what Kansas has done to earn this line?  Beat up UTEP and Duke?  If that’s what it takes to be a 19 point favorite over a conference foe then I think my junior high squad had a pretty decent chance of being a 19 point favorite over Iowa State.

The truth is that Kansas has a decent team.  They aren’t great but the beauty of this line is that Kansas is undefeated in the early part of the season after playing a group of mighty foes.  Heck they beat Northern Colorado – isn’t Northern Colorado the school that had one punter try to kill another punter for playing time?  If the competition is that fierce for the PUNTER spot can you imagine what the other starters had to do to win their spots?  Man…great job Kansas.

Iowa State is 3-2 and their only “bad” loss was a 35-3 pounding from Iowa, but let’s break that loss down.  Iowa is undefeated, knocked off Penn State, and historically OWNS Iowa State.  I’m not sure why there is much surprise that Iowa State couldn’t get their act together for that game.  Iowa State also lost to Kansas State – by a point.  That’s not an awful loss, an awful loss would be to lose to them by like 21.  The fact of the matter is Iowa State cannot play at home, I think that is in part due to the fact that their fans don’t like them very much.  I like Iowa State on the road more than I like them at home.  19 points was just enough to get me to jump on that bandwagon.

Game 3

UCONN +6.5

@

Pitt -6.5

I think there is one rule when you bet on the stach, it’s that you keep riding it when it’s hot.  And coach Dave has it going for Pitt.

The best part of this line is that when I looked at UCONN I saw that they are a pretty bad team, with some questionable wins that helped the betting public justify giving them only 6.5.  They beat Ohio, Baylor, and Rhode Island.  Rhode Island hasn’t been good at anything since Lamar Odom promised his grandmother that he would stay in school…then left after his freshman year.  We’ll call it the curse of Lamar’s grandma.  I’m not really sure there is anything nice I can say about UCONN this season.  I don’t like teams that use 2 QBs.  I don’t like teams that rotate running backs AND quarterbacks even more!  And that’s UCONN.  Look, they suck and I’m not sure playing bad non-conference teams should have changed anyone’s mind about that.

Pittsburgh, where to start?  Coach Dave, as I call him…being from Chicago and watching him do nothing with the Bears makes me feel like Dave and I grew real close during his press conferences when he kept telling everyone that all the pieces were in place…well then what the heck happened Dave?  Do you suck at Puzzles or something and have no idea what the picture is supposed to look like so you just throw shit all over?!?!  Damnit Dave…Damnit…anyway what I think I’m trying to say is that Coach Dave is a better college coach than pro coach and he should get some props.  He is a pretty good recruiter and even though he lost a great back he picked up another one in Dion Lewis.  Dion should have a pretty good game against UCONN – hell the Rhode Island back went for 21 yards against them, that had to be a career, if not school, record.  Take Pitt…enjoy the money.

I had a little bit a trouble this week picking lines, there are some very interesting match ups out there and some of them are going to be super hard to pick.

That said, I think I was able to find 3 good ones.

Game 1

Colorado – 4

@

Toledo +4

Clearly the people are against Colorado.  After a loss to CSU in a game where neither team looked that good Colorado hits the road to beautiful Toledo, Ohio.  Yep, beautiful.  The moral of the story in this game is that the CSU game probably has some bettors in shock, but what they are ignoring is the fact that Toledo is very very bad.  If Colorado sucks, and I’m not debating that, then Toledo REALLY sucks.

That said Colorado has a lot of very talented players and a crazy coach, in my book that equals a win.  Toledo has less talent and a fairly sane coach, that equals a loss.  If you ever get a line where a bottom of the run MAC team is given anything less than 7 points you take the other team, no matter what.  The bottom of the MAC is about as bad as you can be with being the ACC or Sun Belt.  Take Colorado and the fighting Hawkins give Toledo 4 points and call it a win!!!!

Game 2

Syracuse +28.5

@

Penn State -28.5

Greg Paulus is a former Duke point guard and a current Syracuse QB, nothing is going to rattle him on the football field.  Seriously, watching him last week you kind of get the vibe out of him that he’s the senior in the freshman biology class who’s taking that class just because he couldn’t get another study hall.  He knows what to do, when to do it, and can probably get through things with his eyes closed.  He isn’t going to get an A in the class but he knows what he has to do to pass and he’s going to do it, his way.  The beauty of having a QB like that is that he probably isn’t ever going to go on Tilt and he’s going to be steady.  Did he make a HUGE mistake at the end of the game vs. Minnesota?  Yep.  Did he make any huge mistakes prior to that?  Not really.  He ran the game like a PG.  The best thing about the week 1 game is that Syracuse found out they have a rough around the edges superstar in Mike Williams.  Sure he had a few drops but he also had 94 yards and a score.  If there is one thing point guards are good at it’s finding the big guys in traffic and Mike Williams is that (6’2 204).

The problem?  They play Penn State.  Penn State IS the best team in the Big 10.  Don’t let the Ohio State every season, pre season, hype fool you.  Penn state may have lost a lot of weapons at WR but still managed to put up 31…against a bad MAC team.  What you have to understand about bad MAC teams is that they aren’t just a little bad, they are real bad, and if you only put up 31 it’s either because you aren’t trying or you suck.  Penn State wasn’t trying to run up the score and I don’t think they will against the Orange either.  That, my friends, is why we take Syracuse.  Give me 28.5, and I’ll bet that Greg Paulus will protect that football.

Game 3

Iowa -6.5

@

Iowa State +6.5
This game is a rivalry, and rivalries should be treated like the plague when betting, except in this case.  It’s like the perfect storm hit and you can make one of the easiest bets of the week.  Iowa nearly lost to Northern Iowa, but they didn’t.  Northern Iowa was treating that game like the Super Bowl, and Iowa was treating it like an opening week game vs. a FCS opponent.  Iowa State handled their business vs. North Dakota State and now they are benefiting from a skewed line and bettors on tilt.

The truth is Iowa State isn’t good.  Iowa is good.  Their first week games aren’t showing that, but it’s what the facts are.  When Iowa gives Iowa State less than a touchdown it’s a good thing.

Last season Iowa State put up 5, yep 5, points against Iowa.  I’m thinking they are going to put up MAYBE double that this year?  Iowa has an offense that can score.  Sure they lost a TON from last season but Stanzi to Moeaki is going to be a combo that kills Iowa State.

This is a no brainer.  Take Iowa and give the 6.5.

Come back on Monday and let’s see how we did!