Bow Tie Betting Football

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

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Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

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NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

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Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

Last week I went 1-2…and you know what REALLY pisses me off about last week?  I should have at least been 2-1.  OK  LA Tech got smoked and probably couldn’t win in a million tries, HOWEVER, Coach Wanny and the Panthers SHOULD have scored from the 1 inch line…but had to settle for a FG.  I hate Wanny, and the Panthers ALMOST as much as I hate watching a Gummi Bear sing and dance:

Gummy Bear

Let’s move on to this week’s picks:

Game 1

Bowling Green -3

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Ball State + 3

I think if there is one thing we can say about the betting public it’s that they don’t really care too much about MAC games – this is where some advantages can be found.  Those who don’t really know too much about Ball State probably remember last years team that almost went undefeated…by losing 2 games.  Can they really be that bad just a few months removed from being beat down in a bowl game?

Yes.  They are probably the worst team in the MAC, and that’s saying a lot considering Eastern Michigan is in that conference.  The fact is that they played a few “good” teams close.  What do I mean by “good” teams?  I mean Toledo and Temple.  And if you’re like me you’re probably thinking those teams aren’t good.  You’d be right.  However compared to Ball State it should have been like the Dallas Cowboys playing the Kansas City Chiefs…er….never mind.

The point is you can’t think Ball State is a good team because they played teams that should have pounded them fairly close.  Those teams that should have pounded them are bad too!  Just because they are less bad doesn’t mean that some of the tendencies that qualify them as bad won’t show up during the game – for example the fact Toledo doesn’t send any players out there on D.  They figure the longer their D is out there the less time their O has to catch up.  Take Bowling Green, because Ball State is very, very bad.

Game 2

CMU -7

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WMU + 7

Let’s stick with the MAC theme this week, I kind of like it.  Here is my theory on this game WMU is getting a slight boost in the line due to the fact they beat down Toledo last week.  However if you read my pick before this you would know that I happen to think that Toledo is a terrible team.

So is WMU as good as they seem to be vs. Toledo?  No.  Are they as bad as they appeared to be vs. NIU?  No.  The fact is that Toledo’s defense has a way of making everyone look good the same way that NIU’s defense has a way of making you look bad.  The fact is the WMU is probably the 3rd best team in the MAC West and CMU is the #1 team in the MAC West.  If we just looked at that we would know that CMU will probably win this game.

The thing that you have to keep in mind here is that while CMU is on the road it should not have any affect on the spread.  CMU does not have many issues when they travel IN STATE for games this season (Michigan State can tell you.)  CMU is a very good football team that probably won’ t be challenged much during their MAC schedule, this game is a great chance for them to feel the need to get fired up and put a hurting on a squad.  WMU will try to put up a good fight but…won’t.  Take CMU, be happy.

Game 3

Northern Illinois University -7

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Toledo + 7

OK, game 3 and we are staying MAC.  NIU is the #2 team in the MAC west in my opinion, and Toledo isn’t very good.  That was my baseline for this pick, then I stared to do some research.

NIU runs their offense out of a spread formation, however unlike 99% of the spread teams out there they spread you out to run the ball.  They have a play maker in QB Chandler Harnish and one of the best unknown backs in the country in Chad Spann (who is #2 in the nation in TDs and #2 on the NIU depth chart.)  Any time you can have the #2 TD scoring running back in the country as your back up your probably have some pretty good depth at that spot.  A 2 headed monster is never a bad thing when you talk about a running game in the midwest.  These October/November games are going to start getting cold and running the ball is a great way to not have to worry about wind/rain/snow/cold.

The weather in Toledo tomorrow should be some early rain showers followed by 40 degree HEAT by kickoff.  If there was ever a time to have a running team this would be it.

Toledo is not with out it’s charm.  They are a high power offense that can score on just about every play – however their starting QB will probably end up being freshman Austin Dantin – who played great vs. WMU after starting QB Alex Opelt went down with an injury.  The only problem?  Well Austin lit the skies ablaze AFTER WMU took a commanding lead and didn’t seem interested in the game anymore.  On the other side of the ball I have yet to find any solid data that Toledo sends anyone else out on defense other than Barry Church.

Here’s the x-factor, historically Toledo has owned NIU.  That’s why the line is at 7.  Up until last year NIU couldn’t win against Toledo if they had the Dallas Cowboys offensive line…well I don’t think any team could.  Toledo has had NIU’s number.  The problem?  Toledo has a new coach.  NIU has very young starters who don’t really know too much of the Toledo dominance over NIU.  Heck even the NIU seniors are playing this game to even up the series with Toledo over their career.   In fact from 2005 – 2008 the series is tied at 2-2 this would be the rubber match.  I do believe that historical dominance is not something you can ignore, but I do feel that if you break down the numbers and recent history is against the trend then don’t buy into the trend.  Take NIU, and then go out and buy drinks for the whole bar with your winnings.

Coming off a 3-0 week with your picks is never easy.  You can’t top what you just did and the only way you can logically travel is down the mountain.

At bowtie betting we have made it a habit of falling off the top of a mountain as gracefully as we can, and this week I think we are going to stay up there awhile.

Game 1:

Mississippi  -4.5

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South Carolina  +4.5

I hate betting on USC, any USC, and this week I’m going against my feelings for them to bet with my brain.  Mississippi is by far the highest ranked team to ever not play anyone.  Last year they lost to South Carolina at home.  I know someone out there will say, “But that’s the game after they beat Florida!”  And I would agree with that statement, but not agree with it for being the reason that they lost the game.  If they came out flat, then I could believe it, but they actually came out strong and put up 14 in the first quarter on USC for a 14-3 lead after one.  The lost that lead.  It had nothing to do with Florida, if anything they were riding high then came down to Earth.

Ole Miss handled a terrible Memphis team 45 – 14.  But consider the fact that 28 points came in the 4th quarter.  In fact 21 came in the last 6 minutes or so.  MTSU put a better beat down on Memphis (we are counting consistent scoring…not total margin of win.)  I think Ole Miss is a better team than they have been in the past, but they aren’t ‘Great’ and they aren’t 4.5 points better.

The thing about USC is that I’m not a fan.  South Carolina just irks me, I don’t know why.  Maybe it’s because they are the most frustrating team to watch in the world.  Who calls their plays on offense?  Score some friggin’ points, because you should!  That doesn’t mean they suck.

My pick:

South Carolina Gamecocks

Game 2:

Arkansas + 17.5

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Alabama – 17.5

In a battle of teams that both have coaches that I hate I picked the team with the coach I hate the most.  Why?  Because he needs this win.  The world already hates him, but at least he has won before.  If he keeps losing the world will just hate him and he’ll have nothing to fall back on!

Alabama, put the hurting on 2 crappy teams and played a fairly close game with Virgina Tech to open the year.  I don’t know about you but beating North Texas doesn’t make me feel like you are that great of a team.  Julio Jones and Roy Upchurch may not play.  That doesn’t make me feel better about them.

Arkansas, where do I begin?  Your coach is an ass-hat and you are 0-1 ATS.  That said you dropped 41 on Georgia.  I like that kind of party – and there’s nothing more dangerous than a cocky bastard who’s fighting to keep being a cocky bastard and not an idiot loser (Kanye West anyone?)  Sometimes it doesn’t work out, but in this case I’m feeling it.

My Pick:

Arkansas...tough looking mascot if you ask me

Game 3:

Arizona State +12

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Georgia -12

I really want to pick Arizona State and here’s why:

ASU Hottest Fans Ever

But they are making a fairly long trip to Georgia AND they aren’t really that good of a team.  Georgia manages to screw things up from time to time, but I don’t see this one being that close.

My Pick:

Georgia

I’m not here to gloat…well yes, yes I am.

3-0 in Week 3!

It’s a strong feeling.

Ball State and Army was a tight game, exactly what I thought it would be.  Ball State is awful this year, but are they EMU awful or Duke awful?  I think what we found out was that Ball State is probably equally as bad as EMU but had a few more lucky bounces and plays to keep the game within 8.5.  Great job Ball State!

Tenn @ Florida was an equally surprising game.  Who thought that Tenn would be able to keep the game as close as they did?  The thing that people tend to forget about good programs when they have bad years is that they still recruit 4 and 5 star players, and in theory they can still play.  In big games you usually see guys who seem to have been asleep for the better part of their years on campus start to wake up and play up to a level everyone thought they would.  I think this line had more to do with Kiffin’s mouth than it did with the guys on the field.  It’s lines like this you have to try to seek out each week.

NIU @ Purdue.  What a crazy game!  I didn’t think that NIU would outright win the game but they did.  Coach Jerry Kill is 3-0 ATS vs. BCS Schools.  He gets his guys up to play big games.  Purdue was flat out as bad as everyone thought they would be to start the season.  One win over Toledo gave their fans a little bit too much pride.  I wandered over to the Purdue message boards before making my picks to learn of any injuries or things that fans might have heard, and what I found was that their fans thought they would score over 50 points.  Whoops.  I’ll tell you what I saw about Purdue that I hated – they have no class.  Take a look at this right hook I found on YouTube while I was searching for some highlights of the game:

You can tell you really got beat down when you have to throw a punch.  Oregon anyone?

It feels good to have a 3-0 week, so get out there and spend your extra money on something nice for yourself and get ready to come back next week for another great week of picks!

Man, what a long…cold…summer?  Well at least it seemed long and cold, football season seemed like it would never come and there wasn’t really anything to keep me going other than the thought that football season was just months away.  Well OK, I guess hearing that Joanna Krupa was going to be on dancing with the stars:

Joanna Krupa...awesome...just awesome

Joanna Krupa...still awesome with clothes

Yeah, that will keep you going for awhile!

Seriously though, football season is back in a few weeks, stay tuned for some really amazing picks.  If you want to make money in week 1 you should probably keep an eye on the MAC.  I’ll explain that in more detail later, but for right now all you have to know is that the Top MAC teams will probably cover, and the bottom MAC teams will probably get smoked.  We’ll look at the matchups and talk about the Top/Bottom teams later in the week!

So often people seem to think there is a system when picking the outcome of sporting events, and so often something like the Kentucky Derby happens.  A 50 – 1 LONGGGGGGGG shot manages to come out of no where and win the whole darn event.  The interesting thing to point out is that the 50-1 odds seem to indicate that someone, somewhere was betting on him.

So how did they do it?  Was there a system that was used that made this 50-1 long shot an obvious choice?  No.  It was simple mathmatics.  Often times some gamblers do not pick the horse/team/whatever that they think is going to win, they pick the team that has the best ROI with a decent chance to win.

What does that mean?  It means it was the Kentucky Derby, just about every horse in that race has some sort of hype behind it – be it the horses sire, or past performances, the moral of the story is that every horse had a chance.  And that was even more aparent when the early line and morning line favorite “I Want Revenge” was a late scratch.

So how does this apply to football – it’s simple really, teams that are supposed to win, don’t always win.  Not something that should be a shock to anyone, but the key is to find 3 or 4 teams to select who offer a fair ROI and have a chance in the game.  For example, Ole’ Miss v. Florida this season.  Why would anyone bet on Ole’ Miss?  Ole’ Miss is an SEC team, and for as bad as they have been they still were able to bring in some solid SEC type recruits.  They had a coach now who knows how to win in the SEC – and their QB was a transfer from Texas where he was supposed to be the next big thing, not Colt McCoy (according to Rivals Snead was only ranked slightly below Tebow.)  Couple with those factors the fact that Florida probably felt like they could walk over a team like Ole’ Miss and you have a recipe for an upset.

Now how many times does it happen that you have a recipe for an upset, and it doesn’t work out.  The favorite goes out and destroys that poor underdog – I’d say fairly often.  That’s why some would suggest you hedge your bets with 3 or 4 upsets that could happen, and not just on a miracle but based on some form of research.  Ole’ Miss is a team that you can keep your eye on as an “underdog” this season.  They have some talent, they won’t pull out a ton of wins in the SEC, but they will win SOME.

That’s just one type of “betting Theory” out there, keeping an eye on ROI not what you think is going to happen.  In fact this betting theory doesn’t suggest you bet on games you feel “good” about but games you feel least bad about.

Last week was OK, I’ll recap last week tomorrow or Sunday, but right now I want to drop my picks on you guys!

Central Michigan +1.5

Indiana -1.5

This is a very interesting game, CMU at times has the greatest offense you will ever want to see on the football field, and at other times Dan LeFevor looks beatable.  I wanted to pick Indiana here, I really did, I love the Hoosiers – not because they are good at football, but because they are so bad.  Sadly, I still think even if bad CMU shows up they beat IU.  Take CMU by at least 3.

Pittsburgh +5

Notre Dame -5

This is one of those games that I’m going to have to advise you to not listen to me…I’m betting with my heart.  I don’t “hate” Notre Dame as much as some people, but I do feel that their fans think their robust 5-2 record should have them right in the BCS talk.  The only problem here people is that their 5 wins came against TERRIBLE teams, and their 2 losses were to AVERAGE at BEST teams.  They did not lose to the cream of the crop – and I think Coach Mustache will have his Pitt Panthers ready to beat up on cream puff that is ND.  Take Pitt with the points, and they will probably win too.  Just a quick side note…this game scares me, it’s a PROVE what your team is type game, if ND loses to PITT they aren’t a top 25 team like they seem to think they are, if they WIN they deserve some Top 25 talk…that my friend is motivation we can’t measure, but I still see Coach Mustache doin his thing.

Michigan +2.5

Purdue -2.5

This is just the type of game Joe Tiller needs, his team sucks, it’s his last season, and he wants something to hang his hat on, beating Michigan is a good enough hat rack at this point.  Bowl hopes are gone in West Lafayette, so this is their Bowl game.  Purude by 6.

FSU +2.5

Georgia Tech -2.5

Why pick Florida State in this one?  I’m not sure, I’m really just not sure.  I know they have the better talent, I know that at times it seems like FSU is on the right path, but 40 seconds later they blow it wth a stupid mistake and make everyone look stupid!  FSU has one loss…in which they LOOKED TERRIBLE…but only 1 loss.  I’m taking FSU, who is the dog, while being ranked #15.  They should win outright in fact, so if you want to take that one too, do it.

Those are my picks, check back for a recap and the computer picks next week!

Week 8 was OK for me.  I went 3-2, I won a little bit of cash (if I were betting of course), and I got some respect back after that 2-2 of week 7.

The Machine is still off getting fixed, although i was hoping to have him fixed by today for the picks, but what can you do?

By the way, a 3 – 2 week is like Jenn Sterger.  Sure she’s hot, and no one would complain about it, but there is that thought in the back of your head that “I can do better than something Musberger found…”

Here are my picks:

Louisiana Tech +2.5

Army -2.5

I don’t care how bad you are, if Army is favored over you in a football game you are over due for a win.  The thing that really confuses me about this line is that LA Tech is 3-3, they beat Mississippi State, AND Army barely beat EMU.  I don’t know too much about either team, but I know EMU sucks and I know Mississippi State is in the SEC, Army is not.  Give me LA Tech easily in this one.

Kentucky +25.5

Florida -25.5

Here’s what I like about Kentucky…well you know what I don’t really like anything, they are getting 25.5 points and have won 5 games losing only by 3 to Alabama.  I don’t see where they are getting this 25.5 line, that’s really a bold step to make by the odds makers if they are that sure that the GOOD Florida O is going to show up.

Bowling Green +7.5

Northern Illinois -7.5

This is an interesting game for a few reasons, the Huskies are hot on the current homestand and have only allowed 2 TDs on defense in their last 5 GAMES! The only problem is that Bowling Green can only seem to win when they are on the road.  This is going to be a good game for Northern to prove if they are in the MAC race or not.  With a loss removing NIU from the MAC West race I feel like they are going to be playing hard, so a 10 point win isn’t out of the question here.

CMU -3.5

Toledo +3.5

Well last week I won because of both of these teams.  Toledo is a very bad football team and gave NIU that easy win, and CMU beat a pretty darn good WMU team.  What I don’t understand is why this line is so small?  It’s possible that the concerns at CMU’s QB spot could be affecting the line, there is also the possibilty that Toledo can have a great game on O.  With all of that said I still feel like CMU is the team to pick in this game.

That’s all I got….Oh yeah, I almost forgot one thing:

3-2 is nice, no one is complaining, it's just you'd have liked to have done it on your own.

Last week was a rough one on everyone for a multitude of reasons, #1 being that I went 2-2.  The other reason being that it seems as if “The Machine” everyone’s favorite football picking computer + program is going to be down for what appears to be 2 weeks.  It burned up on me, but it can be saved, it’s just going to cost around $50 and 2 weeks time for parts.

Oh well, I can accept losing the Machine, it wasn’t like he was pulling his weight anyway.

As for last week, I kind of had that feeling that there was going to be a let down after a perfect week, I suppose it was something inside my head that tried to pick the perfect game instead of picking what felt right.  There wasn’t really much I could do about it.

A 2-2 week is like…well…it’s like Traci Bingham…After a good time you think you are making an upgrade, but after it’s over you realize that it’s just so-so.  We’ve all been there, and afterwards we all think back to what we had before and realize how much better it was…

Hi, I'm Traci Bingham, I seem like a good idea at the time, but you'll realize after I'm just your average run of the mill fame whore.

I like Traci Bingham, and she’s better than a lot of alternatives, but let’s try to not go there again this week, it can be bad for the pocketbook.

This week here are my picks:

Wake Forest -2

Maryland +2

Maryland hasn’t been the same since having it handed them in the opening game in 2003 against a MAC opponent.  That Maryland team was loaded with NFLers and broke a lot of hearts.  It’s with that in mind that I am going to pick Wake.  I like Riley Skinner, I like the way Wake manages and plays their game.  I think Maryland is much improved and on their way up in the ACC, but they just aren’t there yet.

Miami (FL) -3.5

Duke +3.5

I gotta tell you, when I first saw this line I thought everyone was insane!  There is no way this line should be this close, but then I began to break it down and yeah…this line is about where it should be.  Miami has a very flawed team, there is no doubt talent, but they just don’t seem to know how to play smart football, or winning football for that matter.  Duke is a team on the rise, they aren’t bowl worthy yet, but they will be bowling in a few short seasons.  The problem is this game isn’t played in the future, it’s being played right now.  Miami has enough natural talent to beat this young upstart, but they won’t for long.  Miami will probably take it by 4.

Purdue +4

Northwestern -4

What did we learn last week?  Well I didn’t learn anything, but if you read my blog maybe you finally learned that Northwestern isn’t a good football team.  They are an overhyped bunch that doesn’t really have that much talent.  They beat a lot of bad team, and Purude MAY be considered a bad team.  So why do I pick Purdue then?  I still think Painter can lead a team, I feel like Kory Sheets is a good football player, and I feel like Greg “Don’t Call me Kyle” Orton is one of the best recievers no one knows.  It’s those 3 guys who are going to keep Purdue within 4, heck Purdue may even boiler up and win.  Take Purude and the points.

Western Michigan -2

Central Michigan +2

This is a tough one, Dan LeFevour,  CMU QB and superstar, is hurt.  Western Michigan has been catching quite a few breaks playing NIU who lost their QB on the first series and now CMU down a QB.  Western is not that good of a team, but they are lucky.  They barely beat NIU while at home, so I don’t think they will beat a better CMU team in a rivalry game on the road.  Give me CMU, but this one will make me nervous till the end.

Toledo +8

Northern Illinois -8

I like Northern Illinois in this one.  They their starting QB coming back for the first time since he was hurt in the Western Michigan game as a starter.  I like that.  I like that Toledo is going to be “without” some starters (and by without I mean some guys won’t start after being arrested, but they will play.  So they are going to miss what 1 play?  Way to put a foot down Toledo.)  I like NIU having a homecoming game vs a team that beat them 70-21 last season.  I like NIU’s coach Jerry Kill, he’s a firery guy that I don’t think will let his team forget what happened last season.  Me’Co Brown, NIU’s Freshman Running Back, is a star waiting to shine and what better time than homecoming vs. a rival?  NIU takes it easily, Toledo is caught celebrating (oh wait they already were) and loses big time.
Those are the picks for this week (yeah I picked 5 games…let’s call it the Traci factor…I don’t want to do it again so soon after doing it last week).

DMD

How did “The Machine” pick this week?  Let’s find out!

Michigan State over Northwestern.  The Machine doesn’t believe in Northwestern or the early hype.  A small line of 1.5 to 2.5 is too small to pass up.  On a side note the Machine loves Ringer.  This is my favorite game of the week, I just have that feeling that MSU is a real good team and Northwestern’s fans don’t care that Northwestern is at home.

Notre Dame over UNC…wow.  I’m suprised because I know for a fact that the Machine loved UNC’s offense with Sexson and didn’t seem to care for Notre Dame.  The nice thing is that the Machine can in fact learn and DOES take other games into account, which still does not explain to me why Notre Dame is picked to win.  To be fair I know the Machine does take the growth of Jimmy Clausen into account, and believes that there is more talent on ND, but UNC is playing better. So I guess the machine takes talent over how a team is playing.

NIU over Miami (OH).  This is an easy one according to the machine, the Northern Illinois has the best defense in the MAC and Miami (OH) kind of stinks.  One thing to note is that Chandler Harnish should be healthy for this one for NIU, but DeMarcus Grady WILL get the start at QB.  DeMarcus just runs, the machine seems to feel that DeMarcus will put up enough yards and points vs. a bad Miami team.

Nebraska over Texas Tech, barely.  This is the closest of all the sims.  I don’t know how to feel, the 20.5 spread is a good thing, but the last time the Machine and I agreed so much it was a rough week for everyone.  I’ll agree though, the Nebraska D should be good enough this week to pull it out after a rough week last week.

Remember all of the machine’s picks are ATS.

Good Luck out there this week!

DMD