Bow Tie Betting Football

Last Week:  2-1

Is going 2-1 ever bad?  No.  It’s always nice to win money, but it sucks when Idaho is the team that kills you.  There’s something about Idaho that should always just scream bad idea…no matter what context it’s being talked about.

Game 1

Akron +11

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Bowling Green -11

Let’s review a few things:

1)  I think Akron is a terrible football team.

2)  Bowling Green is playing for their bowl life

3)  Bowling Green has THE BEST WR in college football in Freddie Barnes.

4)  Freddie Barnes, unlike a lot of other MAC player, shows up EVEN MORE against bad teams.

Take Bowling Green, give the points to a terrible Akron team that isn’t playing for anything.

Game 2

Iowa State +15

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Missouri -15

What a weird season it’s been in the Big 12 North.  There isn’t a team up there that is any good, outside of Nebraska…who I would call kind of good, and every single team looks the exact same.  I can’t tell the difference on the field between Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas, or Missouri!   And on top of that you really have to hand it to Iowa State, they are playing their butts off each and every week – it wasn’t always like that in cyclone city.

Due to those factors my friends, I’m taking Iowa State.

Game 3  (Line only found on Betus.com)

NIU  – PK

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Ohio -PK

This is a pick em folks!  The battle of second place MAC foes who are fighting for the right to play the #1 team for the division crown!

NIU is in the MAC West and NEEDS to beat Ohio in order for their game next week to be for the MAC West title.  Ohio is from the MAC East and NEEDS to beat NIU in order for their game vs. Temple next week to be for the MAC East crown!  You see how this line can be a pick em’?

Why then do I think NIU will win?  Simple, the MAC West > MAC East in football.  The top of the MAC West (NIU & CMU) is miles ahead of the rest of the MAC.  The reason this line is a PK and off the board at other websites is that NIU is probably going to be without one of their top 2 backs.  Which one is still up in the air.  Both Me’co Brown (whom by the way is one of my favorite names in football…any time you get an apostrophe in your first name you’re doing it right) and Chad Spann have an injury that COULD keep them out.  Spann has a shoulder injury sustained late last week vs. Ball State and Me’co Brown has an ankle injury that has been bothering him for weeks.  None of this sounds great for the Huskies right?  Normally I’d say yes, but their 3rd STRING back Justin Anderson has rushed for over 1,200 yards and had over 45 catches IN ONE SEASON!  Why is he 3rd string now you ask?  From all I can gather coach Jerry Kill hates him.  I’m not sure why, but I do know Justin Anderson is a Joe Novak recruit.

Ohio, Frankie Solich.  I love Solich, if you’ve read my picks before you know I think he can out coach about 90% of the guys in D1 and he got a bad rap for having a great season at Nebraska (Hey, I bet they’d take 9-3 now!)  But I have to look past my fandom and accept the fact that his team isn’t that great.  Ohio was able to feast on an awful MAC East.  And by feast I mean they lost to Kent State…so I guess they had their lunch money stolen?  Look the point is that on the field and on paper Ohio doesn’t stack up.  The only place I have them miles ahead of NIU is in coaching.  Jerry Kill does some weird things from time to time in a game – and only he knows why.  He’s the Danny Hope of the MAC.  Even with Solich being miles and miles ahead of Kill I just can’t pick Ohio.  NIU should win by 2 scores, but Solich will keep it within one.

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

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Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

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NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

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Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

Well ladies and gentlemen it appears as if your thirst for college football will be quenched this weekend!  And what better way to quench that thirst a little bit more than with a 3 pack of bets to start your season?

(All lines via Betus.com as of 9/1 10am Central Time)

South Carolina +5.5

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NC State -5.5

Golly, I really, really, really loved this line on Sunday when it was a simple -4 for NC State.  The fact is NC State has the better team this season AND is playing at home.  On the other side of the coin is the fact South Carolina DESTROYED NC State last year to the tune of 34-0.  There are 2 ways this can go NC State can get a little bit of revenge and beat up on Coach Steve OR they can get down early and think, “There is no way we can beat the east coast USC!”  Personally I think North Carolina State is going to beat the fake USC by at least 9.

North Carolina State has a dynamic young quarterback in Russell Wilson.  Let’s ignore the fact he went 1 for 5 last season against USC.  He was a Freshman in his first game, so that makes him what, like 12?  The truth is Russell Wilson will put up some amazing numbers in his college career, he just fits that mold – you know the Joe Hamilton mold.  Offense doesn’t always WIN games, but a dynamic offense never loses games either.

The reason I bring that up is South Carolina lost so many guys from their defense last year that I wasn’t sure they would be able to field a team.  I thought they were going to go all “Necessary Roughness” on us and try and get Sinbad back for one last season of eligibility.

Sinbad; he looks A LOT gayer than I remember.

The truth is when you are South Carolina and the one corner on your defense that you are sure of is a FRESHMAN in Stephon Gilmore – then you are in trouble.  Freshman don’t always do well in their first games, on the road, with a very hostile…and hot crowd.

The best 2 (4) things to come out of NC State (yeah and that counts Phillip Rivers.)

Take NC State in this one.  And enjoy a Thursday victory.

Game 2

Missouri + 6.5

@ (“Neutral” site…in Missouri…yep)

Illinois – 6.5

Remember when “Juice” Williams and Arrelious Benn were going to take over the Big 10?  Well things never really got going at U of I.  Last season when Louisiana-Lafayette came to town and almost gave the Illini a beat down things just started going down the toilet.  The major issue with U of I is one that no one seems to talk about, but it’s the fact they don’t have a running back.  You’d think the #1 school in the state of Illinois could grab a kid from that state (which usually produces a good back or 2 a year) and plug him in for 4 seasons.  Well it hasn’t happened.  The good news is that U of I has 4 backs listed on their 2 deeps, ALL with the -OR- listed next to their name.  You know what that says to me?  That says to me you have 0 backs.  Oh well, with Juice and a very talented group of receivers the backs have to do little more than put on their jersey’s straight to have a good day.

Mizzou.  Ohhhhhhhh Mizzou.  Anyone remember last season, when all the talk was about how Mizzou could score like a million points in a game?  Well – we aren’t going to be hearing any of that nonsense this season.  They have to replace their QB, WR, and about 100 other guys on O.  The truth is we don’t have a whole lot to go on with their offense so I can’t throw numbers out there or anything (which is the #1 reason why week 1 games are so hard to pick) but I get the feeling that these guys aren’t going to be able to beat U of I this year.  In fact I’m not sure that the no names of Missouri are going to be able to keep it within 17 points let alone 6.5.  The U of I D is going to be pretty good – expect Martez “Tez” Wilson to have a big game.  Sure he has a lazy nickname but the fighting Zookers are hoping that’s the only part of him that’s lazy.

Take U of I – 6.5

Game 3

Northern Illinois +16.5

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Wisconsin -16.5

I love to bet on the opening Saturday NIGHT Big 10 game, and bet against the Big 10 team.  It happens that for the second straight year that Big 10 team is playing Northern Illinois.  Unlike last year Northern Illinois does not have Larry English to run around and give an oversized and slow Big 10 line fits.  Although unlike last year Northern Illinois isn’t trotting out a Freshman QB, Freshman RB, and Freshman head coach.  They say your 2nd year in a system is when you really start to pick things up.

With a lot of freshman on Northern Illinois 2-deeps Huskie fans can take solace in the fact that NONE of the freshman are listed as starters unlike a season ago.  When you play a BIG Big 10 team like Wisconsin you are going to have to spread them out and tire them, luckily for NIU they run a spread O (where they RUN a ton) with 3 or 4 running backs who can see action and a running QB who can give you some trouble if you don’t watch him.  The speed on the outside at receiver is as good as NIU has had in year with Nathan Palmer and Willie Clark providing the wheels and Landon Cox bringing the size at 6’3 213.  Expect Senior Marcus Lewis and Freshman Martell Moore to also see some action – because they are tall.  You love tall receivers in a spread with a young QB.  Speaking of the young QB Chandler Harnish is going to be the man at the helm this season – he had an OK freshman campaign that was marred with injuries and inconsistencies.  If the saying holds true and you really learn a system in your 2nd year then Mr. Harnish could be waiting to be that next line of great MAC QBs.

Speaking of inexperienced QBs Wisconsin recently named Scott Tolzen their starting QB.  The truth is with an offensive line the size that the Badgers has Tolzen has to do little else but not spin the wrong way on a handoff and he’s going to do exactly what the Badgers want this season.  However, when you have a QB who was lightly recruited, and generally seen as having not a whole ton of talent, you have to worry.  Tolzen wasn’t really that great in High School so you have to wonder if he is forced to pass will he be able to hit receivers Nick Toon and Isaac Anderson?  I’m betting no.  At running back the Badgers have 2 good/great ones in Zach Brown and John Clay.  Clay is probably the better of the 2 and better suited for this offense.  Why?  Because John Clay is a giant and the offensive line is as big as you will probably see – so the young/smallish Huskie line is going to be in for a long day.

When you have a match up like this and it seems like each team should probably have some success on offense you have to look at the spread.  16.5 is just TOO large of spread for a running team with a new QB and a defense that makes their head coach nervous to cover in the first game of the season.  Again when the Big 10 has a team that opens at night they generally don’t do so well.  I’m figuring the folks up in Madison are going to be too drunk by game time to be that huge of a distraction – and I’m not sure they are giving the Huskies the type of respect they deserve.

Take NIU +16.5 and call it a pretty good college football weekend!

Check back on Monday to see how we did, and best of luck to all of you!

Hey everyone, sorry about the late picks this week I was a little bit sick so forgive the shortness of the post:

I like the Bears in this one.  Why?  Because I really don’t like UConn, and I figure the Bears aren’t as bad as everyone seems to think they are.  13.5 points?  Take em, and count your winnings.  (By the way, UConn only beat Temple by a score of 12 – 9…really guys really?)

Temple Owls   +29

Penn State       -29

Take Temple.  They are a MUCH better team this year, coach Golden has them going on the right path and that’s all you can really ask for.  And 29 points is a whole lot of points, I don’t care if Temple scores in garbage time when no one is paying attention, a win is a win.

Buffalo Bulls  +32.5

Mizzou          -32.5

Don’t get me wrong here, Mizzou is a mean offensive team, very mean.  They only thing that keeps me from thinking they will win by over 32 points is that Buffalo is a well coached team and they have a senior QB that won’t freak out when things start to go against them (things have gone against them quite a bit in Willy’s time, he should be fine).

ECU              -7

NC State      +7

Hi, I’m DMD I think ECU is the most overrated team in the top 25 and they beat a bunch of chumps.  The only problem is that they can only beat who they play, you can’t blame them for winning.  That said, WVU and VT(Without Taylor) have proven to be bad teams.  ECU is favored on the road, vs an ACC team.  On paper ECU is the better team, but will success go to their head?  Yes.  And I think in the post game press conference Coach Holtz will quote Eminem, “What do I think of success?  It sucks…”

Eminem, a Skip Holtz influence

Skip Holtz Listens to Eminem