Bow Tie Betting Football

Week 1

Northern Illinois

@

Iowa State

I like Northern Illinois in this season kick off game.  Why?  Because Northern Illinois and Iowa State are mirrors – with Iowa State having that shine of a Big 12 team without all that pesky talent to weigh them down.  Northern Illinois plays in the MAC and carrys the talent of a lower level Big 12 team like Iowa State.  The most perfect matchup for a “small” conference school vs. a BCS school is one early in the season, without a major gap in talent.

You also have to consider the fact that the upperclassmen on Northern Illinois football team have played in large BCS stadiums before and will not have any trouble adjusting to the “noise” at Jack Trice Stadium.

Week 2

Colorado

@

California

I like Colorado in this game.  Why?  Because these aren’t intramurals Brother!

Dan Hawkins is questioned by Mean Gene

Mean Gene…the best interviewer in the game.  And if Hawkins can go toe to toe with him, he sure as hell can beat up Cal.

On the subject of Mean Gene is there a guy who can keep a straight face during an awful interview better than him?

I don’t know about you but I would have been like…wait…can he say that?  I mean…he is black…so…is this cool?

And, one last note about this game, I have a feeling if someone were to give that type of interview, complete with blooper, it would be Dan Hawkins.  No doubt about it.

Week 3

Alabama

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Duke

I like Duke here.  Why?  Because if you click on the ESPN schedule you’ll see that Cincinnati is playing North Carolina AND North Carolina State…AT THE SAME TIME.  (How’s that for my Chewbacca defense?)

Week 4

Western Kentucky

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South Florida

I like Western Kentucky here.  Why?  Because the truth is that Skip Holtz isn’t near as crazy as Jim Leavitt “To Beaver” was.  And if you hire a coach who isn’t crazy, AFTER you had a coach who was crazy, you won’t win.  I think it has more to do with players playing well because they’re scared of their coach.  I mean if you like a coach you’ll run through a wall for him (which in football would be counter-productive because the wall could trip you up) but if you’re scared of a coach you’ll run OVER or AROUND the wall (which works for football.)  Game-Set-Match.

Week 5

UL – Monroe

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Auburn

I’m going to take UL-Monroe.  Why?  I don’t know.  After week 1 my picks are pretty much a toss up.  Anything can happen between week 1 and week 5 in college football.  Teams can literally implode in less time than that.  Also – you look at the schedule and find me a game that you can’t say is at best a 5 or 6 point spread and then I’ll listen to you.  This week has too many close games – so by default UL- Monroe has to beat Auburn.

Week 6

Oklahoma State

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UL – Lafayette

I’m gonna take UL Lafayette here…

No reason.  Just because.  It’s a home game UL-Lafayette is poised to have a pretty solid year.  Mid-Season away games for BCS @ Non-BCS teams make me nervous for the BCS team.  ULL should win this one.  (That’s a serious pick.)

Week 7

Cincinnati

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Louisville

I’m going to take Louisville here, but Louisville hasn’t been good in a long…long time.  You know what they have that is good:

Becca Manns - Cheerleader, Naked Chick.

Ohhhh…you don’t know Becca Manns?  Here you go you can read up on it:  Becca Manns Former Louisville Cheerleader

Week 8

Purdue

@

Ohio State

I like Purdue here.  You know how I talked about the fact teams could implode this upcomming season?  The #1 team on the “implode watch” is Ohio State.  Something just doesn’t feel right up there.  I don’t know what it is – maybe the fact their “rival” Michigan sucks…and they don’t have a ton to look forward to?  I don’t know.  It just feels like a weird game for Ohio State.  Oh yeah, Purdue beat Ohio State last season AND they have a transfer QB (Marve) from Miami.  I don’t know about you but Purdue is looking better and better to me.

Week 9

Baylor

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Texas

I like Baylor.  But I’m not sure at this point in the season if it’s going to be an upset.  Sure Texas ALWAYS has the best players, but they are giving me an Ohio State type vibe this season.  Something is right.  Maybe it was Coach Brown at the NFL draft, but I don’t think I like their team this year.

Week 10

Iowa

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Indiana

Indiana is at home.  That’s good right?

Week 11

South Carolina

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Florida

The Ol’ Ball Coach is due…he’s gotta be.  And Urban Meyer coming back as quickly as he has kind of makes me nervous about his long term and short term health.  Because of that I go with the other USC.

Week 12

Mississippi

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LSU

I hate to pick against LSU here, I really do, but I kind of think Ole Miss is in a better place with what’s his name being gone…you know…the leader of your team and school who did nothing but tear it apart???  You know the guy who was out there trying to get some poon when he should have been focused on his job…and that was helping the team get more wins.  You know who I mean…he wasn’t drafted this year for a reason – and he was booted from the school:

Colonel Reb...wasn't drafted.

Week 13

Boston College

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Syracuse

Syracuse has a newish coach – and a new system that will be more in place now that it ever was.  Of course we can say that for every week this season, but still.

Week 14

Washington

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Washington State

Washington State isn’t great, I know this, but they’re due.  Aren’t they?  Have I already said they’re due as a reason a team should win this season?  I have?  Crap.  Well I’m using it again.

Week 15

Navy

@

Army

Well…it’s the only game this week – and I had to pick an upset…so…Army!  The truth is Army is getting better and better I’m not even sure that an Army win at “home” this year will be an upset.  I really don’t think it will be in fact, but I’m taking them anyway.

There you have it!  My SUPER DUPER early pick for upsets this season…that’s right…upset picks before the 2-deeps are out and this year of school has ended.

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

@

Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

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NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

@

Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

Last week:  2-1

Going 2-1 is never bad, it means we won money.  You hate to have your efforts for a 3-0 day be dashed on the last game, but what can you do?  NIU blew their chances to put Toledo away and ended up losing the game outright.  Well done NIU, well done.

Game 1

Georgia Tech -6

@

Virginia +6

Let’s look at this line like mature adults, Georgia Tech is 6-1, the only team they lost to is Miami.  Virginia is 3-3 and lost to William and Mary.  Do I need to go on?  No.  But I will.

Virgina is on a 3 game “hot” streak.  Their wins are against the traditional powerhouses of Indiana, Maryland, and North Carolina.  So what if the best record out of the bunch is 4-3?  They are all great teams.  Honestly, they aren’t great, they’re terrible teams who have played even worse teams to get them the 4-3 records.  Let’s be fair here, Virginia does have an OK QB – and by OK I mean he throws as many TDs as INTs – when you’re Virginia you’ll take that.  The truth is they aren’t great/good/average at anything.  They win games when other teams TRY to give them the win, and even then it’s not a sure thing.

Georgia Tech 6-1, triple option, power run game, and in this game no need to pass.  It’s perfect really.  The way Virginia wins games is when other teams hand them the ball – well when you run the triple option it reduces at least one avenue of turnover, the INT.  Does Georgia Tech still fumble?  Yep.  When you run it as much as they do you are bound to fumble the ball a few times over the course of the season, however Virginia doesn’t have the players to stop the triple option attack for a full 4 quarters.  If this line was around 10 maybe it would be a question, but when it’s less than a touchdown you thank the lines makers and move on.  Take GT, give the points, and buy yourself a nice lunch before the evening games.

Game 2

LA Tech +1

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Utah State -1

Let me ask you something, when is the last time that you ever said to yourself “Utah State is only giving up ___ number of points?!?!  That’s a gift!”  If you’re like me, and the rest of the world, the answer to that question is never.

Utah State is 1-5, so they have that going for them…their win?  Well it was a barn-burning victory over the vaunted squad from South Utah.  When State plays South you throw out the records, cause both squads want a win.   Let me stop right here and be honest, I can’t find anything nice to say about Utah State.  I just can’t.  I want to find a stat that helps me understand why they are favored but I can’t.  I mean I looked at their most recent common opponent in New Mexico State.  Utah State lost by a score of 20-17 and LA Tech won by a score of 45-7.  The only thing that it could possibly be is that Utah State played Nevada VERY close last week.  They only lost by 3 points.  Which is some kind of miracle.

LA Tech has a good team.  They aren’t great, but they will win this game.  So because they will win this game the 1 point line is kind of a joke.  I would tell you to take LA Tech and the money line but there isn’t one posted yet.  So if you can get in on it, take the money line, if you can’t take the point.  Either way LA Tech wins this game.

Game 3

Idaho +15.5

@

Nevada

If you don’t pay attention to college football you may be kind of confused by this pick.  Idaho is 6-1, and Nevada is 3-3.  both teams are running through their WAC foes with little resistance.  So if anything this should be a close game, but no not the way the lines makers see it.

Nevada has one win that I would consider nice, they pounded LA Tech.  Outside of that their 2 wins were against lesser foes, and one lesser foe they let stay in the game (Utah State.)  They lost to some fairly poor squads too, I don’t want to call anyone out…COLORADO STATE…but some teams that Nevada lost to you have to wonder how they lost to that Junior High team?  Nevada SHOULD be good.  They really should be.  They have a host of great running backs, the returning WAC player of the year, everything shouts GOOD TEAM!  But they just aren’t.  Something is wrong this year.  I don’t know if they have locker room issues, or if things got to their ego, but they aren’t the team they should be.  It doesn’t look to me like they are going to snap out of anything any time soon.

Idaho, the best kept secret in NCAA football.  I’m not kidding when I say this, they have an NFL QB that no one even talks about!  Nathan Enderle is a Junior QB with the size and arm strength that would have NFL scouts and ESPN jerks creating a ton of hype IF he played somewhere that was not the WAC, more specifically Idaho.  Enderle is 6’5 227 and just starting to figure things out on the field this year.  It isn’t often that you can say Idaho has an NFL anything, and to call him a high round draft pick in 2011 may seem insane, but I’m telling you he will be.  This Nevada game is going to be his coming out party, the funny thing is with the line it doesn’t even have to be.  They are 15.5 point dogs.  All he has to do is not make it his meltdown party and everything will be fine.

One thing that I’ve found is that teams that aren’t used to winning, that have a big game, usually play a little bit better on the road.  I don’t know why – and I don’t have a ton of stats to back me up, I’m just saying Idaho will do just fine.  I’d be tempted to take the money line on this one too, but because we don’t do that here I’m just telling you take 15.5 points and be happy the betting gods smiled on oyu.

Last week I went 1-2…and you know what REALLY pisses me off about last week?  I should have at least been 2-1.  OK  LA Tech got smoked and probably couldn’t win in a million tries, HOWEVER, Coach Wanny and the Panthers SHOULD have scored from the 1 inch line…but had to settle for a FG.  I hate Wanny, and the Panthers ALMOST as much as I hate watching a Gummi Bear sing and dance:

Gummy Bear

Let’s move on to this week’s picks:

Game 1

Bowling Green -3

@

Ball State + 3

I think if there is one thing we can say about the betting public it’s that they don’t really care too much about MAC games – this is where some advantages can be found.  Those who don’t really know too much about Ball State probably remember last years team that almost went undefeated…by losing 2 games.  Can they really be that bad just a few months removed from being beat down in a bowl game?

Yes.  They are probably the worst team in the MAC, and that’s saying a lot considering Eastern Michigan is in that conference.  The fact is that they played a few “good” teams close.  What do I mean by “good” teams?  I mean Toledo and Temple.  And if you’re like me you’re probably thinking those teams aren’t good.  You’d be right.  However compared to Ball State it should have been like the Dallas Cowboys playing the Kansas City Chiefs…er….never mind.

The point is you can’t think Ball State is a good team because they played teams that should have pounded them fairly close.  Those teams that should have pounded them are bad too!  Just because they are less bad doesn’t mean that some of the tendencies that qualify them as bad won’t show up during the game – for example the fact Toledo doesn’t send any players out there on D.  They figure the longer their D is out there the less time their O has to catch up.  Take Bowling Green, because Ball State is very, very bad.

Game 2

CMU -7

@

WMU + 7

Let’s stick with the MAC theme this week, I kind of like it.  Here is my theory on this game WMU is getting a slight boost in the line due to the fact they beat down Toledo last week.  However if you read my pick before this you would know that I happen to think that Toledo is a terrible team.

So is WMU as good as they seem to be vs. Toledo?  No.  Are they as bad as they appeared to be vs. NIU?  No.  The fact is that Toledo’s defense has a way of making everyone look good the same way that NIU’s defense has a way of making you look bad.  The fact is the WMU is probably the 3rd best team in the MAC West and CMU is the #1 team in the MAC West.  If we just looked at that we would know that CMU will probably win this game.

The thing that you have to keep in mind here is that while CMU is on the road it should not have any affect on the spread.  CMU does not have many issues when they travel IN STATE for games this season (Michigan State can tell you.)  CMU is a very good football team that probably won’ t be challenged much during their MAC schedule, this game is a great chance for them to feel the need to get fired up and put a hurting on a squad.  WMU will try to put up a good fight but…won’t.  Take CMU, be happy.

Game 3

Northern Illinois University -7

@

Toledo + 7

OK, game 3 and we are staying MAC.  NIU is the #2 team in the MAC west in my opinion, and Toledo isn’t very good.  That was my baseline for this pick, then I stared to do some research.

NIU runs their offense out of a spread formation, however unlike 99% of the spread teams out there they spread you out to run the ball.  They have a play maker in QB Chandler Harnish and one of the best unknown backs in the country in Chad Spann (who is #2 in the nation in TDs and #2 on the NIU depth chart.)  Any time you can have the #2 TD scoring running back in the country as your back up your probably have some pretty good depth at that spot.  A 2 headed monster is never a bad thing when you talk about a running game in the midwest.  These October/November games are going to start getting cold and running the ball is a great way to not have to worry about wind/rain/snow/cold.

The weather in Toledo tomorrow should be some early rain showers followed by 40 degree HEAT by kickoff.  If there was ever a time to have a running team this would be it.

Toledo is not with out it’s charm.  They are a high power offense that can score on just about every play – however their starting QB will probably end up being freshman Austin Dantin – who played great vs. WMU after starting QB Alex Opelt went down with an injury.  The only problem?  Well Austin lit the skies ablaze AFTER WMU took a commanding lead and didn’t seem interested in the game anymore.  On the other side of the ball I have yet to find any solid data that Toledo sends anyone else out on defense other than Barry Church.

Here’s the x-factor, historically Toledo has owned NIU.  That’s why the line is at 7.  Up until last year NIU couldn’t win against Toledo if they had the Dallas Cowboys offensive line…well I don’t think any team could.  Toledo has had NIU’s number.  The problem?  Toledo has a new coach.  NIU has very young starters who don’t really know too much of the Toledo dominance over NIU.  Heck even the NIU seniors are playing this game to even up the series with Toledo over their career.   In fact from 2005 – 2008 the series is tied at 2-2 this would be the rubber match.  I do believe that historical dominance is not something you can ignore, but I do feel that if you break down the numbers and recent history is against the trend then don’t buy into the trend.  Take NIU, and then go out and buy drinks for the whole bar with your winnings.

Well week 1 didn’t go exactly as we had planned, the good news is that we did end up winning 1 game and can still hold our head high and our bank roll isn’t at 0.  And isn’t that what this is all about?

NC State Vs. South Carolina…

NC State was at home but still managed to look like crap.  They have what can only be described as one of the worst coaches in the history of the world.  The play calling was junk, the execution was junk, in fact just about everything they did was JUNK!  Give the Ol’ Ball Coach credit he did manage to bring NC State into his type of game.  Anything that is low scoring fits the South Carolina team to a tee!  We call this the “Chess Club Strategy” – sure they don’t do a lot of scoring, but they do win games.

The Chess Club Strategy, sure it's a slow paced game and you aren't going to do a lot of scoring, but you could win.

What about Mizzou at U of I?

Well we learned the U of I is dead.  I don’t know what happened to them after the Rose Bowl but that team is dead.  They aren’t going to come back – and with rumors of a few of their prized recruits leaving school with intent to transfer they are going to be in for a world of hurt.  They did lose offensive guru Mike Locksley to New Mexico…or New Mexico State…whatever – I’m not betting on either, but that’s no excuse for how they looked.  U of I couldn’t score, and they couldn’t stop Mizzou from scoring.  It was just an awful awful ball game.  If there is one thing to take away form this it’s that U of I is going to be awful, they are a dead team, Mizzou on the other hand may get some lines in their favor that they shouldn’t based of beating U of I.  Keep an eye on the Mizzou lines if you want a team to bet against.

NIU invades Wisconsin

Finally a game I could bold as a WIN!  Wisconsin does not look that great, Northern Illinois had some questionable play calling, and that my friends made for a fun game.  Could Northern Illinois have won this game?  Yeah, probably.  Do I care?  Nope.  They won ATS and that my friends is good enough for me.  Last year NIU started off 4-0 ATS, and I see that happening again.  With a week off the betting lines vs. WIU, Northern will invade Purdue.  Purdue had a very nice opening game victory against Toledo, a team that is going to suck this year.  But Purdue still played well.  If the line is anything like the Wisconsin line then I think taking NIU will be a good move.

Purdue starts next week vs. Oregon, so they aren’t getting the same “tune up” game NIU is getting.  In fact, Purdue is probably looking at NIU as a “Tune Up” for Notre Dame the next week.  Purdue will win the game, if the line is more than 14 they will lose ATS.

Well my friends we are 1 for 3, but fear not!  We now have an NFL section of our site that is going to be launching this week that will give you the heads up for 3 games in the NFL this week that should lead you on the right path!

Check it out:  NFL.BowtieBetting.Com
Come back on Wednesday for my week 2 picks.

So often people seem to think there is a system when picking the outcome of sporting events, and so often something like the Kentucky Derby happens.  A 50 – 1 LONGGGGGGGG shot manages to come out of no where and win the whole darn event.  The interesting thing to point out is that the 50-1 odds seem to indicate that someone, somewhere was betting on him.

So how did they do it?  Was there a system that was used that made this 50-1 long shot an obvious choice?  No.  It was simple mathmatics.  Often times some gamblers do not pick the horse/team/whatever that they think is going to win, they pick the team that has the best ROI with a decent chance to win.

What does that mean?  It means it was the Kentucky Derby, just about every horse in that race has some sort of hype behind it – be it the horses sire, or past performances, the moral of the story is that every horse had a chance.  And that was even more aparent when the early line and morning line favorite “I Want Revenge” was a late scratch.

So how does this apply to football – it’s simple really, teams that are supposed to win, don’t always win.  Not something that should be a shock to anyone, but the key is to find 3 or 4 teams to select who offer a fair ROI and have a chance in the game.  For example, Ole’ Miss v. Florida this season.  Why would anyone bet on Ole’ Miss?  Ole’ Miss is an SEC team, and for as bad as they have been they still were able to bring in some solid SEC type recruits.  They had a coach now who knows how to win in the SEC – and their QB was a transfer from Texas where he was supposed to be the next big thing, not Colt McCoy (according to Rivals Snead was only ranked slightly below Tebow.)  Couple with those factors the fact that Florida probably felt like they could walk over a team like Ole’ Miss and you have a recipe for an upset.

Now how many times does it happen that you have a recipe for an upset, and it doesn’t work out.  The favorite goes out and destroys that poor underdog – I’d say fairly often.  That’s why some would suggest you hedge your bets with 3 or 4 upsets that could happen, and not just on a miracle but based on some form of research.  Ole’ Miss is a team that you can keep your eye on as an “underdog” this season.  They have some talent, they won’t pull out a ton of wins in the SEC, but they will win SOME.

That’s just one type of “betting Theory” out there, keeping an eye on ROI not what you think is going to happen.  In fact this betting theory doesn’t suggest you bet on games you feel “good” about but games you feel least bad about.

Week 8 was OK for me.  I went 3-2, I won a little bit of cash (if I were betting of course), and I got some respect back after that 2-2 of week 7.

The Machine is still off getting fixed, although i was hoping to have him fixed by today for the picks, but what can you do?

By the way, a 3 – 2 week is like Jenn Sterger.  Sure she’s hot, and no one would complain about it, but there is that thought in the back of your head that “I can do better than something Musberger found…”

Here are my picks:

Louisiana Tech +2.5

Army -2.5

I don’t care how bad you are, if Army is favored over you in a football game you are over due for a win.  The thing that really confuses me about this line is that LA Tech is 3-3, they beat Mississippi State, AND Army barely beat EMU.  I don’t know too much about either team, but I know EMU sucks and I know Mississippi State is in the SEC, Army is not.  Give me LA Tech easily in this one.

Kentucky +25.5

Florida -25.5

Here’s what I like about Kentucky…well you know what I don’t really like anything, they are getting 25.5 points and have won 5 games losing only by 3 to Alabama.  I don’t see where they are getting this 25.5 line, that’s really a bold step to make by the odds makers if they are that sure that the GOOD Florida O is going to show up.

Bowling Green +7.5

Northern Illinois -7.5

This is an interesting game for a few reasons, the Huskies are hot on the current homestand and have only allowed 2 TDs on defense in their last 5 GAMES! The only problem is that Bowling Green can only seem to win when they are on the road.  This is going to be a good game for Northern to prove if they are in the MAC race or not.  With a loss removing NIU from the MAC West race I feel like they are going to be playing hard, so a 10 point win isn’t out of the question here.

CMU -3.5

Toledo +3.5

Well last week I won because of both of these teams.  Toledo is a very bad football team and gave NIU that easy win, and CMU beat a pretty darn good WMU team.  What I don’t understand is why this line is so small?  It’s possible that the concerns at CMU’s QB spot could be affecting the line, there is also the possibilty that Toledo can have a great game on O.  With all of that said I still feel like CMU is the team to pick in this game.

That’s all I got….Oh yeah, I almost forgot one thing:

3-2 is nice, no one is complaining, it's just you'd have liked to have done it on your own.

Last week was a rough one on everyone for a multitude of reasons, #1 being that I went 2-2.  The other reason being that it seems as if “The Machine” everyone’s favorite football picking computer + program is going to be down for what appears to be 2 weeks.  It burned up on me, but it can be saved, it’s just going to cost around $50 and 2 weeks time for parts.

Oh well, I can accept losing the Machine, it wasn’t like he was pulling his weight anyway.

As for last week, I kind of had that feeling that there was going to be a let down after a perfect week, I suppose it was something inside my head that tried to pick the perfect game instead of picking what felt right.  There wasn’t really much I could do about it.

A 2-2 week is like…well…it’s like Traci Bingham…After a good time you think you are making an upgrade, but after it’s over you realize that it’s just so-so.  We’ve all been there, and afterwards we all think back to what we had before and realize how much better it was…

Hi, I'm Traci Bingham, I seem like a good idea at the time, but you'll realize after I'm just your average run of the mill fame whore.

I like Traci Bingham, and she’s better than a lot of alternatives, but let’s try to not go there again this week, it can be bad for the pocketbook.

This week here are my picks:

Wake Forest -2

Maryland +2

Maryland hasn’t been the same since having it handed them in the opening game in 2003 against a MAC opponent.  That Maryland team was loaded with NFLers and broke a lot of hearts.  It’s with that in mind that I am going to pick Wake.  I like Riley Skinner, I like the way Wake manages and plays their game.  I think Maryland is much improved and on their way up in the ACC, but they just aren’t there yet.

Miami (FL) -3.5

Duke +3.5

I gotta tell you, when I first saw this line I thought everyone was insane!  There is no way this line should be this close, but then I began to break it down and yeah…this line is about where it should be.  Miami has a very flawed team, there is no doubt talent, but they just don’t seem to know how to play smart football, or winning football for that matter.  Duke is a team on the rise, they aren’t bowl worthy yet, but they will be bowling in a few short seasons.  The problem is this game isn’t played in the future, it’s being played right now.  Miami has enough natural talent to beat this young upstart, but they won’t for long.  Miami will probably take it by 4.

Purdue +4

Northwestern -4

What did we learn last week?  Well I didn’t learn anything, but if you read my blog maybe you finally learned that Northwestern isn’t a good football team.  They are an overhyped bunch that doesn’t really have that much talent.  They beat a lot of bad team, and Purude MAY be considered a bad team.  So why do I pick Purdue then?  I still think Painter can lead a team, I feel like Kory Sheets is a good football player, and I feel like Greg “Don’t Call me Kyle” Orton is one of the best recievers no one knows.  It’s those 3 guys who are going to keep Purdue within 4, heck Purdue may even boiler up and win.  Take Purude and the points.

Western Michigan -2

Central Michigan +2

This is a tough one, Dan LeFevour,  CMU QB and superstar, is hurt.  Western Michigan has been catching quite a few breaks playing NIU who lost their QB on the first series and now CMU down a QB.  Western is not that good of a team, but they are lucky.  They barely beat NIU while at home, so I don’t think they will beat a better CMU team in a rivalry game on the road.  Give me CMU, but this one will make me nervous till the end.

Toledo +8

Northern Illinois -8

I like Northern Illinois in this one.  They their starting QB coming back for the first time since he was hurt in the Western Michigan game as a starter.  I like that.  I like that Toledo is going to be “without” some starters (and by without I mean some guys won’t start after being arrested, but they will play.  So they are going to miss what 1 play?  Way to put a foot down Toledo.)  I like NIU having a homecoming game vs a team that beat them 70-21 last season.  I like NIU’s coach Jerry Kill, he’s a firery guy that I don’t think will let his team forget what happened last season.  Me’Co Brown, NIU’s Freshman Running Back, is a star waiting to shine and what better time than homecoming vs. a rival?  NIU takes it easily, Toledo is caught celebrating (oh wait they already were) and loses big time.
Those are the picks for this week (yeah I picked 5 games…let’s call it the Traci factor…I don’t want to do it again so soon after doing it last week).

DMD

How did “The Machine” pick this week?  Let’s find out!

Michigan State over Northwestern.  The Machine doesn’t believe in Northwestern or the early hype.  A small line of 1.5 to 2.5 is too small to pass up.  On a side note the Machine loves Ringer.  This is my favorite game of the week, I just have that feeling that MSU is a real good team and Northwestern’s fans don’t care that Northwestern is at home.

Notre Dame over UNC…wow.  I’m suprised because I know for a fact that the Machine loved UNC’s offense with Sexson and didn’t seem to care for Notre Dame.  The nice thing is that the Machine can in fact learn and DOES take other games into account, which still does not explain to me why Notre Dame is picked to win.  To be fair I know the Machine does take the growth of Jimmy Clausen into account, and believes that there is more talent on ND, but UNC is playing better. So I guess the machine takes talent over how a team is playing.

NIU over Miami (OH).  This is an easy one according to the machine, the Northern Illinois has the best defense in the MAC and Miami (OH) kind of stinks.  One thing to note is that Chandler Harnish should be healthy for this one for NIU, but DeMarcus Grady WILL get the start at QB.  DeMarcus just runs, the machine seems to feel that DeMarcus will put up enough yards and points vs. a bad Miami team.

Nebraska over Texas Tech, barely.  This is the closest of all the sims.  I don’t know how to feel, the 20.5 spread is a good thing, but the last time the Machine and I agreed so much it was a rough week for everyone.  I’ll agree though, the Nebraska D should be good enough this week to pull it out after a rough week last week.

Remember all of the machine’s picks are ATS.

Good Luck out there this week!

DMD

After a perfect week, one always runs the risk of trying to hard in the sequel.  It happens all the times in sports betting and in the world of movies.  I mean how many times have you gone out and seen a sequel to a great movie and thought “Why the heck didn’t they just keep the formula the same?”  That’s exactly the risk I run here after a perfect week, I even caught myself trying to be too perfect with some crazy picks.  So I took a step back, grabbed a smoothie and went at it again and I think I’m happy with these 4.

Michigan State -1.5

Northwestern    +1.5

This is an easy pick I ignored my first time through.  One of the things I like to pride my betting on is that I ignore the hype.  Northwestern is NOT a good team.  They are undefeated, but look at who they played!  Syracuse, Duke, Ohio, and Iowa are the only FBS teams they have beat this season.  Now, with that said you can only beat who you play.  Sadly this time they have beaten very bad teams and are now playing a very mean MSU team who will not overlook them because of their perfect 5-0 mark.  This game has big time BIG 10 implications, I expect both teams to play hard, and it will be a lot closer than I would normally think, but MSU wins by AT LEAST a field goal.

Notre Dame +7.5

North Carolina -7.5

A very strange game for me to pick.  Normally I wouldn’t think much of a UNC squad that has John Shoop at the helm of the offense, but this season they have done pretty well for me.  They have beaten Miami, so clearly they have speed, the only question I have about them is if they can show up as a favorite at home and BEAT ND.  Notre Dame is not a good team this season, they have beaten bad teams and got trounced by the one decent team on their schedule.  They won’t really be able to do too much against UNC because of the afore mentioned speed on the D.  It will be a closer game, but 10 points should be at least the margin UNC wins by in this one.  Speed kills.

Miami Ohio +11

Northern Illinois -11

You ever hear the phrase “Stay with who took you to the dance”?  Well that’s the case here, NIU is perfect against the spread this season and I really don’t see it stopping here.  NIU has the best D in the MAC and Miami Ohio is struggling a little bit this season.  You do have to worry about NIU and their QB situation, it looks like it’s going to be 3rd string QB DeMarcus Grady to get the start.  DeMarcus is a team leader in rushing and rushing TDs so he should do just fine leading the Huskies against the relatively soft Redhawks.  Huskies by at least 14.

Nebraska +20.5

Texas Tech -20.5

Why?  Why not?  Texas Tech is a great team, and they sure can put up some points, but maybe, just maybe Nebraska can slow them down and put a few scores on the board and keep it within 20.5.  This isn’t a bet that I normally make, but I fee it’s safe enough…You can take this game OR North Texas OVER UL Layfayette.  In fact I’d probably take both.  I know North Texas is supposed to be bad, but is ULL ever supposed to be good?  And by good I mean 21.5 better than North Texas.  Take Nebraska, Take NT.

Ok, those are my picks for this week.  The Machine makes his triumphant return tomorrow, so we shall see what the computer sim seems to think of my predictions.  Good luck out there!