Bow Tie Betting Football

Week 1

Northern Illinois

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Iowa State

I like Northern Illinois in this season kick off game.  Why?  Because Northern Illinois and Iowa State are mirrors – with Iowa State having that shine of a Big 12 team without all that pesky talent to weigh them down.  Northern Illinois plays in the MAC and carrys the talent of a lower level Big 12 team like Iowa State.  The most perfect matchup for a “small” conference school vs. a BCS school is one early in the season, without a major gap in talent.

You also have to consider the fact that the upperclassmen on Northern Illinois football team have played in large BCS stadiums before and will not have any trouble adjusting to the “noise” at Jack Trice Stadium.

Week 2

Colorado

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California

I like Colorado in this game.  Why?  Because these aren’t intramurals Brother!

Dan Hawkins is questioned by Mean Gene

Mean Gene…the best interviewer in the game.  And if Hawkins can go toe to toe with him, he sure as hell can beat up Cal.

On the subject of Mean Gene is there a guy who can keep a straight face during an awful interview better than him?

I don’t know about you but I would have been like…wait…can he say that?  I mean…he is black…so…is this cool?

And, one last note about this game, I have a feeling if someone were to give that type of interview, complete with blooper, it would be Dan Hawkins.  No doubt about it.

Week 3

Alabama

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Duke

I like Duke here.  Why?  Because if you click on the ESPN schedule you’ll see that Cincinnati is playing North Carolina AND North Carolina State…AT THE SAME TIME.  (How’s that for my Chewbacca defense?)

Week 4

Western Kentucky

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South Florida

I like Western Kentucky here.  Why?  Because the truth is that Skip Holtz isn’t near as crazy as Jim Leavitt “To Beaver” was.  And if you hire a coach who isn’t crazy, AFTER you had a coach who was crazy, you won’t win.  I think it has more to do with players playing well because they’re scared of their coach.  I mean if you like a coach you’ll run through a wall for him (which in football would be counter-productive because the wall could trip you up) but if you’re scared of a coach you’ll run OVER or AROUND the wall (which works for football.)  Game-Set-Match.

Week 5

UL – Monroe

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Auburn

I’m going to take UL-Monroe.  Why?  I don’t know.  After week 1 my picks are pretty much a toss up.  Anything can happen between week 1 and week 5 in college football.  Teams can literally implode in less time than that.  Also – you look at the schedule and find me a game that you can’t say is at best a 5 or 6 point spread and then I’ll listen to you.  This week has too many close games – so by default UL- Monroe has to beat Auburn.

Week 6

Oklahoma State

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UL – Lafayette

I’m gonna take UL Lafayette here…

No reason.  Just because.  It’s a home game UL-Lafayette is poised to have a pretty solid year.  Mid-Season away games for BCS @ Non-BCS teams make me nervous for the BCS team.  ULL should win this one.  (That’s a serious pick.)

Week 7

Cincinnati

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Louisville

I’m going to take Louisville here, but Louisville hasn’t been good in a long…long time.  You know what they have that is good:

Becca Manns - Cheerleader, Naked Chick.

Ohhhh…you don’t know Becca Manns?  Here you go you can read up on it:  Becca Manns Former Louisville Cheerleader

Week 8

Purdue

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Ohio State

I like Purdue here.  You know how I talked about the fact teams could implode this upcomming season?  The #1 team on the “implode watch” is Ohio State.  Something just doesn’t feel right up there.  I don’t know what it is – maybe the fact their “rival” Michigan sucks…and they don’t have a ton to look forward to?  I don’t know.  It just feels like a weird game for Ohio State.  Oh yeah, Purdue beat Ohio State last season AND they have a transfer QB (Marve) from Miami.  I don’t know about you but Purdue is looking better and better to me.

Week 9

Baylor

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Texas

I like Baylor.  But I’m not sure at this point in the season if it’s going to be an upset.  Sure Texas ALWAYS has the best players, but they are giving me an Ohio State type vibe this season.  Something is right.  Maybe it was Coach Brown at the NFL draft, but I don’t think I like their team this year.

Week 10

Iowa

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Indiana

Indiana is at home.  That’s good right?

Week 11

South Carolina

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Florida

The Ol’ Ball Coach is due…he’s gotta be.  And Urban Meyer coming back as quickly as he has kind of makes me nervous about his long term and short term health.  Because of that I go with the other USC.

Week 12

Mississippi

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LSU

I hate to pick against LSU here, I really do, but I kind of think Ole Miss is in a better place with what’s his name being gone…you know…the leader of your team and school who did nothing but tear it apart???  You know the guy who was out there trying to get some poon when he should have been focused on his job…and that was helping the team get more wins.  You know who I mean…he wasn’t drafted this year for a reason – and he was booted from the school:

Colonel Reb...wasn't drafted.

Week 13

Boston College

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Syracuse

Syracuse has a newish coach – and a new system that will be more in place now that it ever was.  Of course we can say that for every week this season, but still.

Week 14

Washington

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Washington State

Washington State isn’t great, I know this, but they’re due.  Aren’t they?  Have I already said they’re due as a reason a team should win this season?  I have?  Crap.  Well I’m using it again.

Week 15

Navy

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Army

Well…it’s the only game this week – and I had to pick an upset…so…Army!  The truth is Army is getting better and better I’m not even sure that an Army win at “home” this year will be an upset.  I really don’t think it will be in fact, but I’m taking them anyway.

There you have it!  My SUPER DUPER early pick for upsets this season…that’s right…upset picks before the 2-deeps are out and this year of school has ended.

Last Week:  2-1

Is going 2-1 ever bad?  No.  It’s always nice to win money, but it sucks when Idaho is the team that kills you.  There’s something about Idaho that should always just scream bad idea…no matter what context it’s being talked about.

Game 1

Akron +11

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Bowling Green -11

Let’s review a few things:

1)  I think Akron is a terrible football team.

2)  Bowling Green is playing for their bowl life

3)  Bowling Green has THE BEST WR in college football in Freddie Barnes.

4)  Freddie Barnes, unlike a lot of other MAC player, shows up EVEN MORE against bad teams.

Take Bowling Green, give the points to a terrible Akron team that isn’t playing for anything.

Game 2

Iowa State +15

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Missouri -15

What a weird season it’s been in the Big 12 North.  There isn’t a team up there that is any good, outside of Nebraska…who I would call kind of good, and every single team looks the exact same.  I can’t tell the difference on the field between Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas, or Missouri!   And on top of that you really have to hand it to Iowa State, they are playing their butts off each and every week – it wasn’t always like that in cyclone city.

Due to those factors my friends, I’m taking Iowa State.

Game 3  (Line only found on Betus.com)

NIU  – PK

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Ohio -PK

This is a pick em folks!  The battle of second place MAC foes who are fighting for the right to play the #1 team for the division crown!

NIU is in the MAC West and NEEDS to beat Ohio in order for their game next week to be for the MAC West title.  Ohio is from the MAC East and NEEDS to beat NIU in order for their game vs. Temple next week to be for the MAC East crown!  You see how this line can be a pick em’?

Why then do I think NIU will win?  Simple, the MAC West > MAC East in football.  The top of the MAC West (NIU & CMU) is miles ahead of the rest of the MAC.  The reason this line is a PK and off the board at other websites is that NIU is probably going to be without one of their top 2 backs.  Which one is still up in the air.  Both Me’co Brown (whom by the way is one of my favorite names in football…any time you get an apostrophe in your first name you’re doing it right) and Chad Spann have an injury that COULD keep them out.  Spann has a shoulder injury sustained late last week vs. Ball State and Me’co Brown has an ankle injury that has been bothering him for weeks.  None of this sounds great for the Huskies right?  Normally I’d say yes, but their 3rd STRING back Justin Anderson has rushed for over 1,200 yards and had over 45 catches IN ONE SEASON!  Why is he 3rd string now you ask?  From all I can gather coach Jerry Kill hates him.  I’m not sure why, but I do know Justin Anderson is a Joe Novak recruit.

Ohio, Frankie Solich.  I love Solich, if you’ve read my picks before you know I think he can out coach about 90% of the guys in D1 and he got a bad rap for having a great season at Nebraska (Hey, I bet they’d take 9-3 now!)  But I have to look past my fandom and accept the fact that his team isn’t that great.  Ohio was able to feast on an awful MAC East.  And by feast I mean they lost to Kent State…so I guess they had their lunch money stolen?  Look the point is that on the field and on paper Ohio doesn’t stack up.  The only place I have them miles ahead of NIU is in coaching.  Jerry Kill does some weird things from time to time in a game – and only he knows why.  He’s the Danny Hope of the MAC.  Even with Solich being miles and miles ahead of Kill I just can’t pick Ohio.  NIU should win by 2 scores, but Solich will keep it within one.

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

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Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

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NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

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Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

Last week I went 1-2…and you know what REALLY pisses me off about last week?  I should have at least been 2-1.  OK  LA Tech got smoked and probably couldn’t win in a million tries, HOWEVER, Coach Wanny and the Panthers SHOULD have scored from the 1 inch line…but had to settle for a FG.  I hate Wanny, and the Panthers ALMOST as much as I hate watching a Gummi Bear sing and dance:

Gummy Bear

Let’s move on to this week’s picks:

Game 1

Bowling Green -3

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Ball State + 3

I think if there is one thing we can say about the betting public it’s that they don’t really care too much about MAC games – this is where some advantages can be found.  Those who don’t really know too much about Ball State probably remember last years team that almost went undefeated…by losing 2 games.  Can they really be that bad just a few months removed from being beat down in a bowl game?

Yes.  They are probably the worst team in the MAC, and that’s saying a lot considering Eastern Michigan is in that conference.  The fact is that they played a few “good” teams close.  What do I mean by “good” teams?  I mean Toledo and Temple.  And if you’re like me you’re probably thinking those teams aren’t good.  You’d be right.  However compared to Ball State it should have been like the Dallas Cowboys playing the Kansas City Chiefs…er….never mind.

The point is you can’t think Ball State is a good team because they played teams that should have pounded them fairly close.  Those teams that should have pounded them are bad too!  Just because they are less bad doesn’t mean that some of the tendencies that qualify them as bad won’t show up during the game – for example the fact Toledo doesn’t send any players out there on D.  They figure the longer their D is out there the less time their O has to catch up.  Take Bowling Green, because Ball State is very, very bad.

Game 2

CMU -7

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WMU + 7

Let’s stick with the MAC theme this week, I kind of like it.  Here is my theory on this game WMU is getting a slight boost in the line due to the fact they beat down Toledo last week.  However if you read my pick before this you would know that I happen to think that Toledo is a terrible team.

So is WMU as good as they seem to be vs. Toledo?  No.  Are they as bad as they appeared to be vs. NIU?  No.  The fact is that Toledo’s defense has a way of making everyone look good the same way that NIU’s defense has a way of making you look bad.  The fact is the WMU is probably the 3rd best team in the MAC West and CMU is the #1 team in the MAC West.  If we just looked at that we would know that CMU will probably win this game.

The thing that you have to keep in mind here is that while CMU is on the road it should not have any affect on the spread.  CMU does not have many issues when they travel IN STATE for games this season (Michigan State can tell you.)  CMU is a very good football team that probably won’ t be challenged much during their MAC schedule, this game is a great chance for them to feel the need to get fired up and put a hurting on a squad.  WMU will try to put up a good fight but…won’t.  Take CMU, be happy.

Game 3

Northern Illinois University -7

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Toledo + 7

OK, game 3 and we are staying MAC.  NIU is the #2 team in the MAC west in my opinion, and Toledo isn’t very good.  That was my baseline for this pick, then I stared to do some research.

NIU runs their offense out of a spread formation, however unlike 99% of the spread teams out there they spread you out to run the ball.  They have a play maker in QB Chandler Harnish and one of the best unknown backs in the country in Chad Spann (who is #2 in the nation in TDs and #2 on the NIU depth chart.)  Any time you can have the #2 TD scoring running back in the country as your back up your probably have some pretty good depth at that spot.  A 2 headed monster is never a bad thing when you talk about a running game in the midwest.  These October/November games are going to start getting cold and running the ball is a great way to not have to worry about wind/rain/snow/cold.

The weather in Toledo tomorrow should be some early rain showers followed by 40 degree HEAT by kickoff.  If there was ever a time to have a running team this would be it.

Toledo is not with out it’s charm.  They are a high power offense that can score on just about every play – however their starting QB will probably end up being freshman Austin Dantin – who played great vs. WMU after starting QB Alex Opelt went down with an injury.  The only problem?  Well Austin lit the skies ablaze AFTER WMU took a commanding lead and didn’t seem interested in the game anymore.  On the other side of the ball I have yet to find any solid data that Toledo sends anyone else out on defense other than Barry Church.

Here’s the x-factor, historically Toledo has owned NIU.  That’s why the line is at 7.  Up until last year NIU couldn’t win against Toledo if they had the Dallas Cowboys offensive line…well I don’t think any team could.  Toledo has had NIU’s number.  The problem?  Toledo has a new coach.  NIU has very young starters who don’t really know too much of the Toledo dominance over NIU.  Heck even the NIU seniors are playing this game to even up the series with Toledo over their career.   In fact from 2005 – 2008 the series is tied at 2-2 this would be the rubber match.  I do believe that historical dominance is not something you can ignore, but I do feel that if you break down the numbers and recent history is against the trend then don’t buy into the trend.  Take NIU, and then go out and buy drinks for the whole bar with your winnings.

1-2 last week.  Dang it.  I knew I was in for a let down, and that let down’s name was Arkansas.  The thing that really drew me in was that Arkansas has a QB who can throw the ball about 80 yards in the air – what is not to like about that?  Well…probably the fact that the rest of the team really died after the first quarter.  Oh well, I’ll take 4 – 6 over 2 weeks.  I’d rather be 5-6 or 6-6 but what can you do?

This is a week I feel pretty good about to be honest, and that makes me even more nervous.  One of the betting tools I look for is a good team coming off a bad loss.  The reason I like this as an indicator is that these are just college kids so focus isn’t always there for them.  Goodness knows it wasn’t when I was in school.  Nothing like a loss in a game that they should have won to get a coach to be able to get the kids focused again…at least for a week.

Game 1

Penn State -7.5

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Illinois + 7.5

Let’s review, Penn State is the best team in the Big 10 – they just can’t beat Iowa.  Everyone has that team that they can’t beat and in this decade for Penn State it’s been Iowa.  Who knows why, or how, but it happens.  That’s the type of loss that will get a team motivated and focused just like what we talked about earlier.

For Illinois Isiah ‘Juice’ Williams has been catching heat like crazy for being a bad QB.  The fact is that the guys around him aren’t helping him out at all.  He’s still the guy that lead U of I to a Rose Bowl – but he’s also still the guy that got blown out in the Rose Bowl.  My theory is this, Missouri beat the hell out of U of I – Penn State will do the same.

Game 2

Western Michigan +7

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Northern Illinois -7

Western Michigan and NIU share the same 2-2 record, however they have very different wins.  Northern Illinois handled the FCS team they played (Western Illinois) and Western Michigan played a closer-than-the-score game with their FCS foe (Hofstra.)  Western Michigan’s other win came at the expense of Miami Ohio – who is about as bad as you get in the MAC without being Ball State this year.  Northern Illinois other win came at the expense of the Purdue Boilermakers on the road.  The 2 losses are interesting – Northern dropped their opener to a pretty decent Wisconsin squad by 8 and Western Michigan dropped their opener by 24 to an equally decent Michigan squad.  What bothers me about the WMU v. Michigan loss is that WMU should have been playing that game with more fire than any game on their schedule.  It’s an in-state BCS foe who passed over, or only offered in passing, a scholarship to many of the players on the WMU squad.  They didn’t.  They came out and got SMOKED.  The 2nd loss for each team was a bad loss.  NIU lost AT HOME to Idaho and WMU lost to Indiana (who may be better than some think, but I think they just showed up and played out of their mind vs. Michigan last week.)  Terrible losses, however NIU’s terrible loss came last week, a great chance for coach Kill to get his guys FOCUSED again.

WMU is probably going to be without starting WR Juan Nunez with an injury.  Although guys have a way of recovering and showing up fine for game day.

NIU should be happy a team is without a weapon in the passing game because, at times, they forget about the pass.

NIU is too talented to have lost to Idaho, and WMU is down just enough to lose to NIU on their homecoming by over 7.  Take NIU

Game 3

Central Michigan – 8

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Buffalo +8

Last week I was talking about how much I like Buffalo – but after watching them closely on Saturday I have come to the conclusion that they are just TOO young to be good this year.  With 2 interceptions in the redzone Buffalo sealed their fate vs. Temple.

Central Michigan is a veteran team that is lead by one of the best QBs in the country in Dan LeFevour .  And if you look at their last 3 games after coming off that weird loss at Arizona, (who to be honest had the advantage of having a team from the Midwest coming out and playing a night game), has smoked everyone they have played since.  I don’t see Buffalo putting up a bigger fight in this game.  They may come out and keep it close early but Buffalo just doesn’t have the horses to run this race with CMU.

Take CMU…and enjoy!

I’m not here to gloat…well yes, yes I am.

3-0 in Week 3!

It’s a strong feeling.

Ball State and Army was a tight game, exactly what I thought it would be.  Ball State is awful this year, but are they EMU awful or Duke awful?  I think what we found out was that Ball State is probably equally as bad as EMU but had a few more lucky bounces and plays to keep the game within 8.5.  Great job Ball State!

Tenn @ Florida was an equally surprising game.  Who thought that Tenn would be able to keep the game as close as they did?  The thing that people tend to forget about good programs when they have bad years is that they still recruit 4 and 5 star players, and in theory they can still play.  In big games you usually see guys who seem to have been asleep for the better part of their years on campus start to wake up and play up to a level everyone thought they would.  I think this line had more to do with Kiffin’s mouth than it did with the guys on the field.  It’s lines like this you have to try to seek out each week.

NIU @ Purdue.  What a crazy game!  I didn’t think that NIU would outright win the game but they did.  Coach Jerry Kill is 3-0 ATS vs. BCS Schools.  He gets his guys up to play big games.  Purdue was flat out as bad as everyone thought they would be to start the season.  One win over Toledo gave their fans a little bit too much pride.  I wandered over to the Purdue message boards before making my picks to learn of any injuries or things that fans might have heard, and what I found was that their fans thought they would score over 50 points.  Whoops.  I’ll tell you what I saw about Purdue that I hated – they have no class.  Take a look at this right hook I found on YouTube while I was searching for some highlights of the game:

You can tell you really got beat down when you have to throw a punch.  Oregon anyone?

It feels good to have a 3-0 week, so get out there and spend your extra money on something nice for yourself and get ready to come back next week for another great week of picks!

Last week I went 2-1 with my picks and learned a valuable lesson, Colorado has QUIT on this season.  I don’t think they are that much worse than Toledo, what I think happened is they stopped caring.  Maybe they quit on their coach, maybe they quit on themselves but they taught me to never bet on a team who lost a rivalry game the week before (heck look at FSU almost losing to a FCS team.)

Combined here at the bowtie betting camp we went 4-2 with our picks (NFL + College) and if you haven’t don’t forget to check out our NEW NFL betting blog…that is if you like to make money.

Week 3 Picks

Ball State +8.5

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Army

I know that Nate Davis is long gone, and I know that Ball State probably sucks but I don’t think that Army is better than New Hampshire.  Ball State only lost to New Hampshire by 7.  I also want to point out that in Week 1 Ball State was a 15 point FAVORITE over North Texas.  Clearly Ball State is not living up to expectations but I think they are good enough to keep it within a TD of Army.  Army lost by 16 to Duke and beat Eastern Michigan by 13.  I’m betting that Ball State falls somewhere between Duke and EMU on the soft scale.  Take Ball State, a game out of Muncie will do them good (heck time out of Muncie for anyone would be a good thing.)

Northern Illinois + 13

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Purdue – 13

Let me say this before I get started with this game, Purdue has to be the most surprising team in the Big 10 at this point in the season.  They have come out and played with more emotion than they have in the past 5 years under Tiller (and those were some good years.)  I was bashing them earlier but I believe in the run game that they have out there and I think it will continue to put the hurt on teams this whole season.  That said, this game comes at a bad time.

Purdue is fresh off a west coast trip and not just any ordinary trip.  They had to play Oregon at 915 pm Central time, which is late, but even later when you consider that Purdue isn’t on Central time, they are on their own special we-will-never-change-our-clocks time (so it was 1015pm for them.)  Traveling out west puts a lot of people in a funk, and playing a football game a 1015pm will mess up your internal clocks for even longer.  The kick off for this game is 12pm local time (11am Central.)  That’s not the only thing that makes me nervous about Purdue.  They are playing rival Notre Dame next week.  I know some of you are thinking, “Notre Dame doesn’t care that much about Purude.” and you’re right, but Purdue CARES about Notre Dame.  It’s an instate game, and Purdue hates them.  Purdue doesn’t have a rival quite like Notre Dame, so you can excuse some of their players for looking ahead.

Northern Illinois has shown that it can play Big 10 teams close on the road, Minnesota last season and Wisconsin this season.  Ross-Ade Stadium isn’t seen as loud as either of those two fields so the crowd will not be a factor (Coach Jerry Kill is 2-0 ATS vs. Big 10 Teams.)  I don’t think NIU wins this game, but I think they can keep it within 13, even if that means the score very late to keep it respectable.

Take NIU and the 13.

Tennessee + 30

@

Florida – 30

I can’t help but feel that the hype off what Lane Kiffin said in the spring/summer is helping to fuel this line.  Florida is a dominant team, no doubt about that, but I don’t think they can win by 30 at will on SEC foes.  Couple that with the fact that Lane Kiffin’s dad Monte is calling the D things should be fairly close for the better part of the 1st quarter.  Monte has had the better part of 3 or 4 months to figure how to keep his son from getting his butt kicked, and I think he’s done it.

Don’t discount the fact Monte is one of the best defensive coaches of all time.  Urban Meyer can run the spread all he wants but Monte will figure a way to keep Tennessee in this game.  And by in this game I mean within 27 points.  The x-factor in this one is Jonathan Crompton.  He’s tied for the lead in the NCAA in interceptions (with Purdue’s Joey Elliott) and can royally screw this game up.  However, I think that Lane will keep him on a short leash, and if he has to run the ball 2 of 3 or 3 of 3 downs every series.  He’s going to want to keep this game close for as long as he can, and I’m guessing that should last about 6 minutes into the game.  After that it’s every man for himself.  If Monte can keep the Tennessee D from starting a brawl with their own offense for throwing them to the dogs like the will he’ll keep it within 30.  So…I guess what I’m saying is take Tennessee and learn why Monte Kiffin was so well regarded in the NFL ranks.

Well ladies and gentlemen it appears as if your thirst for college football will be quenched this weekend!  And what better way to quench that thirst a little bit more than with a 3 pack of bets to start your season?

(All lines via Betus.com as of 9/1 10am Central Time)

South Carolina +5.5

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NC State -5.5

Golly, I really, really, really loved this line on Sunday when it was a simple -4 for NC State.  The fact is NC State has the better team this season AND is playing at home.  On the other side of the coin is the fact South Carolina DESTROYED NC State last year to the tune of 34-0.  There are 2 ways this can go NC State can get a little bit of revenge and beat up on Coach Steve OR they can get down early and think, “There is no way we can beat the east coast USC!”  Personally I think North Carolina State is going to beat the fake USC by at least 9.

North Carolina State has a dynamic young quarterback in Russell Wilson.  Let’s ignore the fact he went 1 for 5 last season against USC.  He was a Freshman in his first game, so that makes him what, like 12?  The truth is Russell Wilson will put up some amazing numbers in his college career, he just fits that mold – you know the Joe Hamilton mold.  Offense doesn’t always WIN games, but a dynamic offense never loses games either.

The reason I bring that up is South Carolina lost so many guys from their defense last year that I wasn’t sure they would be able to field a team.  I thought they were going to go all “Necessary Roughness” on us and try and get Sinbad back for one last season of eligibility.

Sinbad; he looks A LOT gayer than I remember.

The truth is when you are South Carolina and the one corner on your defense that you are sure of is a FRESHMAN in Stephon Gilmore – then you are in trouble.  Freshman don’t always do well in their first games, on the road, with a very hostile…and hot crowd.

The best 2 (4) things to come out of NC State (yeah and that counts Phillip Rivers.)

Take NC State in this one.  And enjoy a Thursday victory.

Game 2

Missouri + 6.5

@ (“Neutral” site…in Missouri…yep)

Illinois – 6.5

Remember when “Juice” Williams and Arrelious Benn were going to take over the Big 10?  Well things never really got going at U of I.  Last season when Louisiana-Lafayette came to town and almost gave the Illini a beat down things just started going down the toilet.  The major issue with U of I is one that no one seems to talk about, but it’s the fact they don’t have a running back.  You’d think the #1 school in the state of Illinois could grab a kid from that state (which usually produces a good back or 2 a year) and plug him in for 4 seasons.  Well it hasn’t happened.  The good news is that U of I has 4 backs listed on their 2 deeps, ALL with the -OR- listed next to their name.  You know what that says to me?  That says to me you have 0 backs.  Oh well, with Juice and a very talented group of receivers the backs have to do little more than put on their jersey’s straight to have a good day.

Mizzou.  Ohhhhhhhh Mizzou.  Anyone remember last season, when all the talk was about how Mizzou could score like a million points in a game?  Well – we aren’t going to be hearing any of that nonsense this season.  They have to replace their QB, WR, and about 100 other guys on O.  The truth is we don’t have a whole lot to go on with their offense so I can’t throw numbers out there or anything (which is the #1 reason why week 1 games are so hard to pick) but I get the feeling that these guys aren’t going to be able to beat U of I this year.  In fact I’m not sure that the no names of Missouri are going to be able to keep it within 17 points let alone 6.5.  The U of I D is going to be pretty good – expect Martez “Tez” Wilson to have a big game.  Sure he has a lazy nickname but the fighting Zookers are hoping that’s the only part of him that’s lazy.

Take U of I – 6.5

Game 3

Northern Illinois +16.5

@

Wisconsin -16.5

I love to bet on the opening Saturday NIGHT Big 10 game, and bet against the Big 10 team.  It happens that for the second straight year that Big 10 team is playing Northern Illinois.  Unlike last year Northern Illinois does not have Larry English to run around and give an oversized and slow Big 10 line fits.  Although unlike last year Northern Illinois isn’t trotting out a Freshman QB, Freshman RB, and Freshman head coach.  They say your 2nd year in a system is when you really start to pick things up.

With a lot of freshman on Northern Illinois 2-deeps Huskie fans can take solace in the fact that NONE of the freshman are listed as starters unlike a season ago.  When you play a BIG Big 10 team like Wisconsin you are going to have to spread them out and tire them, luckily for NIU they run a spread O (where they RUN a ton) with 3 or 4 running backs who can see action and a running QB who can give you some trouble if you don’t watch him.  The speed on the outside at receiver is as good as NIU has had in year with Nathan Palmer and Willie Clark providing the wheels and Landon Cox bringing the size at 6’3 213.  Expect Senior Marcus Lewis and Freshman Martell Moore to also see some action – because they are tall.  You love tall receivers in a spread with a young QB.  Speaking of the young QB Chandler Harnish is going to be the man at the helm this season – he had an OK freshman campaign that was marred with injuries and inconsistencies.  If the saying holds true and you really learn a system in your 2nd year then Mr. Harnish could be waiting to be that next line of great MAC QBs.

Speaking of inexperienced QBs Wisconsin recently named Scott Tolzen their starting QB.  The truth is with an offensive line the size that the Badgers has Tolzen has to do little else but not spin the wrong way on a handoff and he’s going to do exactly what the Badgers want this season.  However, when you have a QB who was lightly recruited, and generally seen as having not a whole ton of talent, you have to worry.  Tolzen wasn’t really that great in High School so you have to wonder if he is forced to pass will he be able to hit receivers Nick Toon and Isaac Anderson?  I’m betting no.  At running back the Badgers have 2 good/great ones in Zach Brown and John Clay.  Clay is probably the better of the 2 and better suited for this offense.  Why?  Because John Clay is a giant and the offensive line is as big as you will probably see – so the young/smallish Huskie line is going to be in for a long day.

When you have a match up like this and it seems like each team should probably have some success on offense you have to look at the spread.  16.5 is just TOO large of spread for a running team with a new QB and a defense that makes their head coach nervous to cover in the first game of the season.  Again when the Big 10 has a team that opens at night they generally don’t do so well.  I’m figuring the folks up in Madison are going to be too drunk by game time to be that huge of a distraction – and I’m not sure they are giving the Huskies the type of respect they deserve.

Take NIU +16.5 and call it a pretty good college football weekend!

Check back on Monday to see how we did, and best of luck to all of you!

I’m a huge fan of the NFL combine, below I’m going to post a list of the guys in the combine, and point out some guys that I think have a real chance to blast into the 1st round of move all the way down to the 2nd day:

Player List

Source:  NFL.com

So…forgive the above list if it is a little bit hard to read, you can just follow the source link and look up all the guys yourself.

Guys to keep an eye on:

Robert Ayers DE Tennessee

-  Mike Mayock, the draft super expert on the NFL network, was ready to ask for Ayers hand in marriage after the senior bowl pratices, I’m not yet sold on him.  He has to be ready to explain to the teams that interview him why he wasn’t able to live up to any sort of hype.  He isn’t a real fast guy, and that doesn’t seem to work in today’s NFL at the end spot.  I think Ayers needs to explode in these workouts – and then maybe we will all be on his bandwagon like Mayock.  I’d also like to point out that he isn’t exactly a mature fella, he has been suspended by Tennessee…goodness knows what you have to do to be suspended at Tennessee.  (Prediction:  Round 3 – 4)

Ramses Barden WR Cal Poly

-   This is the type of guy who can jump into the 2nd round if he has some amazing numbers.  And half the battle is if he can measure in at the 6’6 that everyone seems to claim he is, and I’m talking a legit 6’6 not a Ben Gordon 6′+ when he is barely 5’11, then throw a 40 time that is in the 4.6 range or lower and someone may fall in love.  It tends to happen with big receivers, some GM will get all googly eyes over his size and draft him way before he should…*Cough* Mike “I can eat more than Shawn Kemp ever dreamed of” Williams *Cough*.  (Prediction: Round 4)

Brian Cushing OLB USC

-   I have to tell you something, I think all of the USC guys in this draft are very overrated and if they don’t land in the right system they will just fall into a growing, and largely ignored, list of USC high round busts.  He needs to have a great combine and prove to everyone that he won’t break if they want to line him up at a rush end from time to time (or a rush backer in a 3-4).  It’s his durablity issues that I think will keep any team seeking a SAM backer in a 4-3 away from him, he just won’t be able to take the beating that those guys have to take game in and game out.  He will have the size for the SAM spot so some bad GM will probably draft him to play there…much too early.  (Prediction:  Late Round 1, early Round 2)

Vontae Davis CB Illinois

-   …Let’s talk overrated players…and let’s talk Vontae Davis.  I like the guy, I think he’ll have a fine Walt Harrisesqe career, but I don’t think he’s going to be worth where he is drafted.  He seems a little bit too stiff to play a corner for anyone who needs him to play man, with that in mind I now question any cover 2 team that drafts a corner in the first round.  If you are drafting a guy in the first round because his zone skills are mad sick, you have to re-evaluate what you are doing.  Some of the best cover 2 corners in the NFL are late round guys.  Some GM is going to love numbers, which Davis NEEDs or he can really slip, and draft Vonte VERY early.  (Prediction:  Round 1)

Louis Delmas DB Western Michigan

-   I really like this kid, his size may worry some people.  He’s under 200 pounds and he is the type of guy who would have to stay on the field every down, so they say his run support will be an issue.  I have to tell you that a kid who played 8 games last season where he never came off the field is plenty durable.  He is the EXACT type player that I am talking about who should probably go before Davis, but because Davis is so much better on paper he’ll go wayy before Delmas.  If you have a need at DB and your team is able to grab Delams (assuming he runs in the 4.6 and under range) in the 2 – 4 rounds consider yourself lucky.  (Prediction:  Round 2 – 3)

Larry English DE Northern Illinois

-   Having the pleasure of watching a lot of NIU football, they started off doing an amazing job ATS for me, I was able to watch Larry English prove to me that he is a first day NFL draft pick.  The word on the street is that they are talking about him being the next DeMarcus Ware, which will surely reach some GM’s ears and cause him to spazz out and draft him in round 1.  He’s probably a second round pick but can fill a need for about 10 teams in the first round, which makes his combine one of the most important of any guy on the list.  He can blow everyone away and secure a round 1 pick – or show a suspect 40 time and look stiff which could drop him all the way to day 2.  I think he’ll probably blow everyone away and land in round 1.  (Prediction:  Round 1 or 2)

Arian Foster RB Tennessee

-  I don’t like to make bold predictions about which guys are going to come in soft…but if there is a candidate for a guy who seems to have lost his desire for the game and will come in soft and out of shape, it’s Arian Foster in my opinion.  But on the other side of the coin is that if he does have the desire and his decline in stats has more to do with Tennessee just being a crappy program than it does desire he can have a HUGE combine and jump into the 2nd round.  He’s probably a 4th or 5th round guy. (Prediction:  Round 2 – 7)

Cullen Harper QB Clemson

-   On the subject of guys who need a miracle combine to get drafted…we have Cullen Harper.  Yes the Cullen Harper that threw his former coach under the bus after he was fired.  Yep.  NFL scouts and GMs love guys who are pretty terrible who have big mouths.  So…miracles can happen and he can have an amazing combine and get drafted, but my money is on him working at the local Sonic for the next few seasons.  (Prediction:  Tot Cook.  Sonic. Or…maybe 6th – 7th round)

Kory Sheets RB Purdue

-   Yeah, another guy with a big mouth, but this one has skills.  It’s weird how that works out?  GMs and scouts are more willing to put up with that baloney if you can actually play on the field (someone should have told Cullen Harper).  Kory is fast, he can catch the ball, and probably should go higher in the draft than he will end up going.  A good combine can push him into the late 3rd or 4th round, but he’s probably looking at a 5th round slot.  (Prediction: 5th round)

Drew Willy QB Buffalo

-   I really like this kid, and in a soft quarterback class he should be happy.  A young man who is pretty big and has a nice arm, he should be a 4th or 5th rounder who will go to a team that needs a quarterback and by the end of the season he’ll probably even have some starts under his belt.  MAC quarterbacks always seem to do better than expected in the NFL and that can’t hurt him.  If he can come in and measure a true 6’3 he’ll be drafted in the 4th or 5th.  I’m not sure he can gain any more than that.  (Prediction:  Round 4 – 5)

Nate Davis QB Ball State

-  This is the only kid I’m going to mention that should have stayed in school.  He got a bad deal though, his coach was leaving, the only players worth anything on the offensive side of the ball were leaving so he had his decision made for him.  This is a young man with a learning disability who worked hard to make grades, and that will count for something with NFL GMs.  That learning disability probably forced him out the door a little bit too.  (Prediciton: Round 6 – 7)

That’s what I have for guys to watch, I’ll come back with day by day combine reaction for guys you should all keep an eye on.

Week 8 was OK for me.  I went 3-2, I won a little bit of cash (if I were betting of course), and I got some respect back after that 2-2 of week 7.

The Machine is still off getting fixed, although i was hoping to have him fixed by today for the picks, but what can you do?

By the way, a 3 – 2 week is like Jenn Sterger.  Sure she’s hot, and no one would complain about it, but there is that thought in the back of your head that “I can do better than something Musberger found…”

Here are my picks:

Louisiana Tech +2.5

Army -2.5

I don’t care how bad you are, if Army is favored over you in a football game you are over due for a win.  The thing that really confuses me about this line is that LA Tech is 3-3, they beat Mississippi State, AND Army barely beat EMU.  I don’t know too much about either team, but I know EMU sucks and I know Mississippi State is in the SEC, Army is not.  Give me LA Tech easily in this one.

Kentucky +25.5

Florida -25.5

Here’s what I like about Kentucky…well you know what I don’t really like anything, they are getting 25.5 points and have won 5 games losing only by 3 to Alabama.  I don’t see where they are getting this 25.5 line, that’s really a bold step to make by the odds makers if they are that sure that the GOOD Florida O is going to show up.

Bowling Green +7.5

Northern Illinois -7.5

This is an interesting game for a few reasons, the Huskies are hot on the current homestand and have only allowed 2 TDs on defense in their last 5 GAMES! The only problem is that Bowling Green can only seem to win when they are on the road.  This is going to be a good game for Northern to prove if they are in the MAC race or not.  With a loss removing NIU from the MAC West race I feel like they are going to be playing hard, so a 10 point win isn’t out of the question here.

CMU -3.5

Toledo +3.5

Well last week I won because of both of these teams.  Toledo is a very bad football team and gave NIU that easy win, and CMU beat a pretty darn good WMU team.  What I don’t understand is why this line is so small?  It’s possible that the concerns at CMU’s QB spot could be affecting the line, there is also the possibilty that Toledo can have a great game on O.  With all of that said I still feel like CMU is the team to pick in this game.

That’s all I got….Oh yeah, I almost forgot one thing:

3-2 is nice, no one is complaining, it's just you'd have liked to have done it on your own.