Bow Tie Betting Football

Well that time is just about here – one week from yesterday the NCAA FBS football season will be on and rocking!

This year we have a new TOP SECRET betting formula that we are going to use to select 5 games each week (to eliminate those “tie” weeks.)

Each week we are going to pretend we’re using $100 per bet, and my pretend starting balance is going to be $1000.

Bank:  $1000

Game 1

Thursday September 2

FSN

There are shockingly FEW ISU highlight videos on YouTube…search it yourself!

Here’s what you have to notice from the Video:

-  The bulk of the highlights are vs. Baylor and Kent State.  That’s like me making a highlight video of myself dunking on 3rd graders.  While they’re trying their best they don’t really belong on the court.

-  The “highlights” of the Nebraska game aren’t really highlights as much as they are moments where it shows ISU doing not as bad as Nebraska.

-  Nothing says class like storming the field vs. Colorado.  Yeah, the Colorado who lost to Toledo by 100000.  (To be fair they did clinch a bowl bid – and that’s a big deal for Iowa State.)

So…what do we take away from all of the highlights?  ISU isn’t the awful ISU we all used to know.  Coach Paul Rhoads had a great first season where the ball bounced his way and a soft schedule walked them into a bowl game – but don’t like the bowl game fool you.  This is still Iowa State – this season towards the bottom of the Big 12.  They are playing Northern Illinois – towards the top of the MAC.  Can the top of the MAC beat the bottom of the Big 12?  In the opening weekending they can.

Mr. Bowtie Predicted Spread – NIU by 4.25 (yes…it really says .25 points…)

Game 2

ESPN

3:30p

	163	Purdue Boilermakers	+11 -110		54 O -110 U -110
	164	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-11 -110

NBC

3:30p

	171	UCLA Bruins	+3 -110		43 O -110 U -110
	172	Kansas State Wildcats	-3 -110

ABC

Mr Bowtie Predicted Spread – Syracuse wins by 13.3333333  (Good luck with that one Mr. Bowtie!)

****All lines are from BetUs.com Friday August 27 9:15AM

Week 1

Northern Illinois

@

Iowa State

I like Northern Illinois in this season kick off game.  Why?  Because Northern Illinois and Iowa State are mirrors – with Iowa State having that shine of a Big 12 team without all that pesky talent to weigh them down.  Northern Illinois plays in the MAC and carrys the talent of a lower level Big 12 team like Iowa State.  The most perfect matchup for a “small” conference school vs. a BCS school is one early in the season, without a major gap in talent.

You also have to consider the fact that the upperclassmen on Northern Illinois football team have played in large BCS stadiums before and will not have any trouble adjusting to the “noise” at Jack Trice Stadium.

Week 2

Colorado

@

California

I like Colorado in this game.  Why?  Because these aren’t intramurals Brother!

Dan Hawkins is questioned by Mean Gene

Mean Gene…the best interviewer in the game.  And if Hawkins can go toe to toe with him, he sure as hell can beat up Cal.

On the subject of Mean Gene is there a guy who can keep a straight face during an awful interview better than him?

I don’t know about you but I would have been like…wait…can he say that?  I mean…he is black…so…is this cool?

And, one last note about this game, I have a feeling if someone were to give that type of interview, complete with blooper, it would be Dan Hawkins.  No doubt about it.

Week 3

Alabama

@

Duke

I like Duke here.  Why?  Because if you click on the ESPN schedule you’ll see that Cincinnati is playing North Carolina AND North Carolina State…AT THE SAME TIME.  (How’s that for my Chewbacca defense?)

Week 4

Western Kentucky

@

South Florida

I like Western Kentucky here.  Why?  Because the truth is that Skip Holtz isn’t near as crazy as Jim Leavitt “To Beaver” was.  And if you hire a coach who isn’t crazy, AFTER you had a coach who was crazy, you won’t win.  I think it has more to do with players playing well because they’re scared of their coach.  I mean if you like a coach you’ll run through a wall for him (which in football would be counter-productive because the wall could trip you up) but if you’re scared of a coach you’ll run OVER or AROUND the wall (which works for football.)  Game-Set-Match.

Week 5

UL – Monroe

@

Auburn

I’m going to take UL-Monroe.  Why?  I don’t know.  After week 1 my picks are pretty much a toss up.  Anything can happen between week 1 and week 5 in college football.  Teams can literally implode in less time than that.  Also – you look at the schedule and find me a game that you can’t say is at best a 5 or 6 point spread and then I’ll listen to you.  This week has too many close games – so by default UL- Monroe has to beat Auburn.

Week 6

Oklahoma State

@

UL – Lafayette

I’m gonna take UL Lafayette here…

No reason.  Just because.  It’s a home game UL-Lafayette is poised to have a pretty solid year.  Mid-Season away games for BCS @ Non-BCS teams make me nervous for the BCS team.  ULL should win this one.  (That’s a serious pick.)

Week 7

Cincinnati

@

Louisville

I’m going to take Louisville here, but Louisville hasn’t been good in a long…long time.  You know what they have that is good:

Becca Manns - Cheerleader, Naked Chick.

Ohhhh…you don’t know Becca Manns?  Here you go you can read up on it:  Becca Manns Former Louisville Cheerleader

Week 8

Purdue

@

Ohio State

I like Purdue here.  You know how I talked about the fact teams could implode this upcomming season?  The #1 team on the “implode watch” is Ohio State.  Something just doesn’t feel right up there.  I don’t know what it is – maybe the fact their “rival” Michigan sucks…and they don’t have a ton to look forward to?  I don’t know.  It just feels like a weird game for Ohio State.  Oh yeah, Purdue beat Ohio State last season AND they have a transfer QB (Marve) from Miami.  I don’t know about you but Purdue is looking better and better to me.

Week 9

Baylor

@

Texas

I like Baylor.  But I’m not sure at this point in the season if it’s going to be an upset.  Sure Texas ALWAYS has the best players, but they are giving me an Ohio State type vibe this season.  Something is right.  Maybe it was Coach Brown at the NFL draft, but I don’t think I like their team this year.

Week 10

Iowa

@

Indiana

Indiana is at home.  That’s good right?

Week 11

South Carolina

@

Florida

The Ol’ Ball Coach is due…he’s gotta be.  And Urban Meyer coming back as quickly as he has kind of makes me nervous about his long term and short term health.  Because of that I go with the other USC.

Week 12

Mississippi

@

LSU

I hate to pick against LSU here, I really do, but I kind of think Ole Miss is in a better place with what’s his name being gone…you know…the leader of your team and school who did nothing but tear it apart???  You know the guy who was out there trying to get some poon when he should have been focused on his job…and that was helping the team get more wins.  You know who I mean…he wasn’t drafted this year for a reason – and he was booted from the school:

Colonel Reb...wasn't drafted.

Week 13

Boston College

@

Syracuse

Syracuse has a newish coach – and a new system that will be more in place now that it ever was.  Of course we can say that for every week this season, but still.

Week 14

Washington

@

Washington State

Washington State isn’t great, I know this, but they’re due.  Aren’t they?  Have I already said they’re due as a reason a team should win this season?  I have?  Crap.  Well I’m using it again.

Week 15

Navy

@

Army

Well…it’s the only game this week – and I had to pick an upset…so…Army!  The truth is Army is getting better and better I’m not even sure that an Army win at “home” this year will be an upset.  I really don’t think it will be in fact, but I’m taking them anyway.

There you have it!  My SUPER DUPER early pick for upsets this season…that’s right…upset picks before the 2-deeps are out and this year of school has ended.

Interesting….

-  The St. Louis Rams managed to draft a QB with questionable durability (Sam Bradford), and ability in a pro scheme, in the last first round that will pay unproven rookies like sure fire hall of famers.  Well done St. Louis, well done.

-  The Lions were able to draft the best player in the draft (Ndamukong Suh) with their #2 pick, and then were able to trade up again in to the first round and draft a guy who many thought was going to be the best RB in the draft this year (Jahvid Best) before he broke his brain…couple that with last years draft where in the first 2 rounds they were able to grab the #1 safety, #1 QB and #1 TE you can see that minus Matt Millen the Lions are actually starting to build something.

-  The Raiders didn’t do anything crazy…anyone else hoping they were going to draft Bruce Campbell?  Not the OT from Maryland, but the Actor.

-  Pete Caroll actually had a decent first round, he grabbed a tackle (Russell Okung) who is a true left tackle AND a safety (Earl Thomas) who could be the best at their positions in this draft.  There was a lot of talk that Caroll would find a way to muck this up…he didn’t.

-  Speaking of mucking things up, the Jaguars drafted a sure fire second rounder (Tyson Alualu) at #10…and it wasn’t Tebow.  Nothing will help you sell tickets like a reach at #10…nothing.

-  How pissed do you think the Patriots are this morning?  They were spewing crap about how they wanted to draft a corner…and actually drafted a corner  (Devin McCourty).  Is it just me or did all their talk lead anyone else to think that they didn’t really want a corner.  Rumor is they wanted Jermaine Gresham…(More on this in a bit…)

-  There’s a tie for the “Good Things Come to Those Who Wait” award in the first round:

Tennessee Titans were just sittin around chillin…and all of the sudden BOTH of the DEs they wanted were available with only 1 team left to pick ahead of them.  And they were able to get the guy that most everyone agrees was #1 on the board at DE (Derrick Morgan).

New York Jets…since they got rid of the Mangenius they have been having some of the “smarter” off season moves of the year.  Nothing exemplifies that like waiting around at #29 and drafting a guy who was close to, if not the, #1 corner in the draft (Kyle Wilson).

-  The “Guys this might be kind of crazy…but I’m about to try to do something awesome” award is another tie:

Dallas moved up and drafted the hands down hardest player to project in this draft (Dez Bryant).  I know some teams will say Tebow, but you know Tebow will work…if he fails it’s because…

Denver moved up and drafted the 2nd hardest player to project in the first round (Tim Tebow).  Denver, who already traded for a young QB in Brady Quinn, decided now was the time to fill their multiple holes on defense and offense with…a 3rd string QB.  Will this pay off in 5 years?  Maybe?  I’ll tell you what I like about Tebow:

Tim Tebow...Say what you want about his throwing motion but he sure can spot a tight end!

RUMORS

You know how if you stick around gambling long enough you find some guy who has more information about things than he should?  He looks like a homeless dude who drinks a 40 for breakfast, but some how has more inside information that Mort ever dreamed?  Yeah here’s what this guy has said:

-  “The only thing that will stop the Bears from trading Greg Olsen to the Patriots is the fact Jerry Angelo is afriad that Belichick is tricking him.” 

-  “Charlie Weis doesn’t want Clausen, but does want a team to jump ahead of the Chiefs to draft Jimmy.  Opening things up for the Chiefs to grab a guy they really want.”  (Think Saffold…)

-  “Eagles are promoting the Weis/KC wants Jimmy rumor too.  They want someone to jump up and grab the QB so they can have one of their safety picks slip to them in the 2nd Mays or Allen.”

-  “At this point a few other teams are wishing that Holmgren like Clausen more.”

-  “Mays will slip a little bit further than some projected.  I’m not sure the Eagles like him, but they sure want someone to think they do. ”

And those are your thoughts/rumors for First/Second/Third rounds.

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

@

Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

@

NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

@

Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

Last week:  2-1

Going 2-1 is never bad, it means we won money.  You hate to have your efforts for a 3-0 day be dashed on the last game, but what can you do?  NIU blew their chances to put Toledo away and ended up losing the game outright.  Well done NIU, well done.

Game 1

Georgia Tech -6

@

Virginia +6

Let’s look at this line like mature adults, Georgia Tech is 6-1, the only team they lost to is Miami.  Virginia is 3-3 and lost to William and Mary.  Do I need to go on?  No.  But I will.

Virgina is on a 3 game “hot” streak.  Their wins are against the traditional powerhouses of Indiana, Maryland, and North Carolina.  So what if the best record out of the bunch is 4-3?  They are all great teams.  Honestly, they aren’t great, they’re terrible teams who have played even worse teams to get them the 4-3 records.  Let’s be fair here, Virginia does have an OK QB – and by OK I mean he throws as many TDs as INTs – when you’re Virginia you’ll take that.  The truth is they aren’t great/good/average at anything.  They win games when other teams TRY to give them the win, and even then it’s not a sure thing.

Georgia Tech 6-1, triple option, power run game, and in this game no need to pass.  It’s perfect really.  The way Virginia wins games is when other teams hand them the ball – well when you run the triple option it reduces at least one avenue of turnover, the INT.  Does Georgia Tech still fumble?  Yep.  When you run it as much as they do you are bound to fumble the ball a few times over the course of the season, however Virginia doesn’t have the players to stop the triple option attack for a full 4 quarters.  If this line was around 10 maybe it would be a question, but when it’s less than a touchdown you thank the lines makers and move on.  Take GT, give the points, and buy yourself a nice lunch before the evening games.

Game 2

LA Tech +1

@

Utah State -1

Let me ask you something, when is the last time that you ever said to yourself “Utah State is only giving up ___ number of points?!?!  That’s a gift!”  If you’re like me, and the rest of the world, the answer to that question is never.

Utah State is 1-5, so they have that going for them…their win?  Well it was a barn-burning victory over the vaunted squad from South Utah.  When State plays South you throw out the records, cause both squads want a win.   Let me stop right here and be honest, I can’t find anything nice to say about Utah State.  I just can’t.  I want to find a stat that helps me understand why they are favored but I can’t.  I mean I looked at their most recent common opponent in New Mexico State.  Utah State lost by a score of 20-17 and LA Tech won by a score of 45-7.  The only thing that it could possibly be is that Utah State played Nevada VERY close last week.  They only lost by 3 points.  Which is some kind of miracle.

LA Tech has a good team.  They aren’t great, but they will win this game.  So because they will win this game the 1 point line is kind of a joke.  I would tell you to take LA Tech and the money line but there isn’t one posted yet.  So if you can get in on it, take the money line, if you can’t take the point.  Either way LA Tech wins this game.

Game 3

Idaho +15.5

@

Nevada

If you don’t pay attention to college football you may be kind of confused by this pick.  Idaho is 6-1, and Nevada is 3-3.  both teams are running through their WAC foes with little resistance.  So if anything this should be a close game, but no not the way the lines makers see it.

Nevada has one win that I would consider nice, they pounded LA Tech.  Outside of that their 2 wins were against lesser foes, and one lesser foe they let stay in the game (Utah State.)  They lost to some fairly poor squads too, I don’t want to call anyone out…COLORADO STATE…but some teams that Nevada lost to you have to wonder how they lost to that Junior High team?  Nevada SHOULD be good.  They really should be.  They have a host of great running backs, the returning WAC player of the year, everything shouts GOOD TEAM!  But they just aren’t.  Something is wrong this year.  I don’t know if they have locker room issues, or if things got to their ego, but they aren’t the team they should be.  It doesn’t look to me like they are going to snap out of anything any time soon.

Idaho, the best kept secret in NCAA football.  I’m not kidding when I say this, they have an NFL QB that no one even talks about!  Nathan Enderle is a Junior QB with the size and arm strength that would have NFL scouts and ESPN jerks creating a ton of hype IF he played somewhere that was not the WAC, more specifically Idaho.  Enderle is 6’5 227 and just starting to figure things out on the field this year.  It isn’t often that you can say Idaho has an NFL anything, and to call him a high round draft pick in 2011 may seem insane, but I’m telling you he will be.  This Nevada game is going to be his coming out party, the funny thing is with the line it doesn’t even have to be.  They are 15.5 point dogs.  All he has to do is not make it his meltdown party and everything will be fine.

One thing that I’ve found is that teams that aren’t used to winning, that have a big game, usually play a little bit better on the road.  I don’t know why – and I don’t have a ton of stats to back me up, I’m just saying Idaho will do just fine.  I’d be tempted to take the money line on this one too, but because we don’t do that here I’m just telling you take 15.5 points and be happy the betting gods smiled on oyu.

Last week I went 1-2…and you know what REALLY pisses me off about last week?  I should have at least been 2-1.  OK  LA Tech got smoked and probably couldn’t win in a million tries, HOWEVER, Coach Wanny and the Panthers SHOULD have scored from the 1 inch line…but had to settle for a FG.  I hate Wanny, and the Panthers ALMOST as much as I hate watching a Gummi Bear sing and dance:

Gummy Bear

Let’s move on to this week’s picks:

Game 1

Bowling Green -3

@

Ball State + 3

I think if there is one thing we can say about the betting public it’s that they don’t really care too much about MAC games – this is where some advantages can be found.  Those who don’t really know too much about Ball State probably remember last years team that almost went undefeated…by losing 2 games.  Can they really be that bad just a few months removed from being beat down in a bowl game?

Yes.  They are probably the worst team in the MAC, and that’s saying a lot considering Eastern Michigan is in that conference.  The fact is that they played a few “good” teams close.  What do I mean by “good” teams?  I mean Toledo and Temple.  And if you’re like me you’re probably thinking those teams aren’t good.  You’d be right.  However compared to Ball State it should have been like the Dallas Cowboys playing the Kansas City Chiefs…er….never mind.

The point is you can’t think Ball State is a good team because they played teams that should have pounded them fairly close.  Those teams that should have pounded them are bad too!  Just because they are less bad doesn’t mean that some of the tendencies that qualify them as bad won’t show up during the game – for example the fact Toledo doesn’t send any players out there on D.  They figure the longer their D is out there the less time their O has to catch up.  Take Bowling Green, because Ball State is very, very bad.

Game 2

CMU -7

@

WMU + 7

Let’s stick with the MAC theme this week, I kind of like it.  Here is my theory on this game WMU is getting a slight boost in the line due to the fact they beat down Toledo last week.  However if you read my pick before this you would know that I happen to think that Toledo is a terrible team.

So is WMU as good as they seem to be vs. Toledo?  No.  Are they as bad as they appeared to be vs. NIU?  No.  The fact is that Toledo’s defense has a way of making everyone look good the same way that NIU’s defense has a way of making you look bad.  The fact is the WMU is probably the 3rd best team in the MAC West and CMU is the #1 team in the MAC West.  If we just looked at that we would know that CMU will probably win this game.

The thing that you have to keep in mind here is that while CMU is on the road it should not have any affect on the spread.  CMU does not have many issues when they travel IN STATE for games this season (Michigan State can tell you.)  CMU is a very good football team that probably won’ t be challenged much during their MAC schedule, this game is a great chance for them to feel the need to get fired up and put a hurting on a squad.  WMU will try to put up a good fight but…won’t.  Take CMU, be happy.

Game 3

Northern Illinois University -7

@

Toledo + 7

OK, game 3 and we are staying MAC.  NIU is the #2 team in the MAC west in my opinion, and Toledo isn’t very good.  That was my baseline for this pick, then I stared to do some research.

NIU runs their offense out of a spread formation, however unlike 99% of the spread teams out there they spread you out to run the ball.  They have a play maker in QB Chandler Harnish and one of the best unknown backs in the country in Chad Spann (who is #2 in the nation in TDs and #2 on the NIU depth chart.)  Any time you can have the #2 TD scoring running back in the country as your back up your probably have some pretty good depth at that spot.  A 2 headed monster is never a bad thing when you talk about a running game in the midwest.  These October/November games are going to start getting cold and running the ball is a great way to not have to worry about wind/rain/snow/cold.

The weather in Toledo tomorrow should be some early rain showers followed by 40 degree HEAT by kickoff.  If there was ever a time to have a running team this would be it.

Toledo is not with out it’s charm.  They are a high power offense that can score on just about every play – however their starting QB will probably end up being freshman Austin Dantin – who played great vs. WMU after starting QB Alex Opelt went down with an injury.  The only problem?  Well Austin lit the skies ablaze AFTER WMU took a commanding lead and didn’t seem interested in the game anymore.  On the other side of the ball I have yet to find any solid data that Toledo sends anyone else out on defense other than Barry Church.

Here’s the x-factor, historically Toledo has owned NIU.  That’s why the line is at 7.  Up until last year NIU couldn’t win against Toledo if they had the Dallas Cowboys offensive line…well I don’t think any team could.  Toledo has had NIU’s number.  The problem?  Toledo has a new coach.  NIU has very young starters who don’t really know too much of the Toledo dominance over NIU.  Heck even the NIU seniors are playing this game to even up the series with Toledo over their career.   In fact from 2005 – 2008 the series is tied at 2-2 this would be the rubber match.  I do believe that historical dominance is not something you can ignore, but I do feel that if you break down the numbers and recent history is against the trend then don’t buy into the trend.  Take NIU, and then go out and buy drinks for the whole bar with your winnings.

Last week I was 2-1 and a lightning strike away from being 3-0.  That lightning strike was just the inspiration that Bufflalo needed to keep it within 8 – anytime you are playing not to get fried you are playing the way God intended.

I’ll take a 2-1 week every week, as should you, it means profit, and profit is what we like!

Game 1

LA Tech +10.5

@

Nevada RENO -10.5

A few things about this game jump out at me right away, Nevada Reno is really gung-ho about making everyone say the “Reno” AND they are 1-3.  I’m not really sure which of those 2 things bugs me more.  Nevada should in theory be better than their 1-3 record, and I always thought they were better than someone who tried to give themselves a nickname.  Sure “Reno” isn’t a nickname – but that isn’t the point here.  The point is that they have just disappointed me on 2 levels.

In a serious look at Reno – I like the squad, hate the city, and the record.  They’ve lost to Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Missouri.  Their win was against a UNLV squad that looked like it didn’t want to be on the field with their “Rival”.  The weirdest thing about that game is that UNLV wasn’t as bad as they played on the field that day.  Which also implies that Reno isn’t as good as they played on the field that day.  The score was 63 – 28, however if we break it down it wasn’t really THAT bad of a game.  It was 21-21 at halftime and 35-28 to start the 4th.  It’s just when you let 28 points up in the 4th quarter generally things aren’t going to go as well as you want.

In a look at LA Tech I’ve come to the conclusion that I like their team.  They were only down 13-10 at half vs. a pretty darn good Auburn squad and ony down 14-18 going into the 4th against a VERY good Navy team.  Navy plays everyone hard and there is no shame in losing to them.  Beating Hawaii by a score of 27-6 last week was VERY impressive.  It’s hard to beat Hawaii, let alone hold them to 6 points.  I like LA Tech’s D enough to think that they can keep this one within 10.5.  Take LA Tech and the points tonight.

Game 2

Iowa State + 19

@

Kansas – 19

Can someone explain to me what Kansas has done to earn this line?  Beat up UTEP and Duke?  If that’s what it takes to be a 19 point favorite over a conference foe then I think my junior high squad had a pretty decent chance of being a 19 point favorite over Iowa State.

The truth is that Kansas has a decent team.  They aren’t great but the beauty of this line is that Kansas is undefeated in the early part of the season after playing a group of mighty foes.  Heck they beat Northern Colorado – isn’t Northern Colorado the school that had one punter try to kill another punter for playing time?  If the competition is that fierce for the PUNTER spot can you imagine what the other starters had to do to win their spots?  Man…great job Kansas.

Iowa State is 3-2 and their only “bad” loss was a 35-3 pounding from Iowa, but let’s break that loss down.  Iowa is undefeated, knocked off Penn State, and historically OWNS Iowa State.  I’m not sure why there is much surprise that Iowa State couldn’t get their act together for that game.  Iowa State also lost to Kansas State – by a point.  That’s not an awful loss, an awful loss would be to lose to them by like 21.  The fact of the matter is Iowa State cannot play at home, I think that is in part due to the fact that their fans don’t like them very much.  I like Iowa State on the road more than I like them at home.  19 points was just enough to get me to jump on that bandwagon.

Game 3

UCONN +6.5

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Pitt -6.5

I think there is one rule when you bet on the stach, it’s that you keep riding it when it’s hot.  And coach Dave has it going for Pitt.

The best part of this line is that when I looked at UCONN I saw that they are a pretty bad team, with some questionable wins that helped the betting public justify giving them only 6.5.  They beat Ohio, Baylor, and Rhode Island.  Rhode Island hasn’t been good at anything since Lamar Odom promised his grandmother that he would stay in school…then left after his freshman year.  We’ll call it the curse of Lamar’s grandma.  I’m not really sure there is anything nice I can say about UCONN this season.  I don’t like teams that use 2 QBs.  I don’t like teams that rotate running backs AND quarterbacks even more!  And that’s UCONN.  Look, they suck and I’m not sure playing bad non-conference teams should have changed anyone’s mind about that.

Pittsburgh, where to start?  Coach Dave, as I call him…being from Chicago and watching him do nothing with the Bears makes me feel like Dave and I grew real close during his press conferences when he kept telling everyone that all the pieces were in place…well then what the heck happened Dave?  Do you suck at Puzzles or something and have no idea what the picture is supposed to look like so you just throw shit all over?!?!  Damnit Dave…Damnit…anyway what I think I’m trying to say is that Coach Dave is a better college coach than pro coach and he should get some props.  He is a pretty good recruiter and even though he lost a great back he picked up another one in Dion Lewis.  Dion should have a pretty good game against UCONN – hell the Rhode Island back went for 21 yards against them, that had to be a career, if not school, record.  Take Pitt…enjoy the money.

Last week I went 2-1 with my picks and learned a valuable lesson, Colorado has QUIT on this season.  I don’t think they are that much worse than Toledo, what I think happened is they stopped caring.  Maybe they quit on their coach, maybe they quit on themselves but they taught me to never bet on a team who lost a rivalry game the week before (heck look at FSU almost losing to a FCS team.)

Combined here at the bowtie betting camp we went 4-2 with our picks (NFL + College) and if you haven’t don’t forget to check out our NEW NFL betting blog…that is if you like to make money.

Week 3 Picks

Ball State +8.5

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Army

I know that Nate Davis is long gone, and I know that Ball State probably sucks but I don’t think that Army is better than New Hampshire.  Ball State only lost to New Hampshire by 7.  I also want to point out that in Week 1 Ball State was a 15 point FAVORITE over North Texas.  Clearly Ball State is not living up to expectations but I think they are good enough to keep it within a TD of Army.  Army lost by 16 to Duke and beat Eastern Michigan by 13.  I’m betting that Ball State falls somewhere between Duke and EMU on the soft scale.  Take Ball State, a game out of Muncie will do them good (heck time out of Muncie for anyone would be a good thing.)

Northern Illinois + 13

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Purdue – 13

Let me say this before I get started with this game, Purdue has to be the most surprising team in the Big 10 at this point in the season.  They have come out and played with more emotion than they have in the past 5 years under Tiller (and those were some good years.)  I was bashing them earlier but I believe in the run game that they have out there and I think it will continue to put the hurt on teams this whole season.  That said, this game comes at a bad time.

Purdue is fresh off a west coast trip and not just any ordinary trip.  They had to play Oregon at 915 pm Central time, which is late, but even later when you consider that Purdue isn’t on Central time, they are on their own special we-will-never-change-our-clocks time (so it was 1015pm for them.)  Traveling out west puts a lot of people in a funk, and playing a football game a 1015pm will mess up your internal clocks for even longer.  The kick off for this game is 12pm local time (11am Central.)  That’s not the only thing that makes me nervous about Purdue.  They are playing rival Notre Dame next week.  I know some of you are thinking, “Notre Dame doesn’t care that much about Purude.” and you’re right, but Purdue CARES about Notre Dame.  It’s an instate game, and Purdue hates them.  Purdue doesn’t have a rival quite like Notre Dame, so you can excuse some of their players for looking ahead.

Northern Illinois has shown that it can play Big 10 teams close on the road, Minnesota last season and Wisconsin this season.  Ross-Ade Stadium isn’t seen as loud as either of those two fields so the crowd will not be a factor (Coach Jerry Kill is 2-0 ATS vs. Big 10 Teams.)  I don’t think NIU wins this game, but I think they can keep it within 13, even if that means the score very late to keep it respectable.

Take NIU and the 13.

Tennessee + 30

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Florida – 30

I can’t help but feel that the hype off what Lane Kiffin said in the spring/summer is helping to fuel this line.  Florida is a dominant team, no doubt about that, but I don’t think they can win by 30 at will on SEC foes.  Couple that with the fact that Lane Kiffin’s dad Monte is calling the D things should be fairly close for the better part of the 1st quarter.  Monte has had the better part of 3 or 4 months to figure how to keep his son from getting his butt kicked, and I think he’s done it.

Don’t discount the fact Monte is one of the best defensive coaches of all time.  Urban Meyer can run the spread all he wants but Monte will figure a way to keep Tennessee in this game.  And by in this game I mean within 27 points.  The x-factor in this one is Jonathan Crompton.  He’s tied for the lead in the NCAA in interceptions (with Purdue’s Joey Elliott) and can royally screw this game up.  However, I think that Lane will keep him on a short leash, and if he has to run the ball 2 of 3 or 3 of 3 downs every series.  He’s going to want to keep this game close for as long as he can, and I’m guessing that should last about 6 minutes into the game.  After that it’s every man for himself.  If Monte can keep the Tennessee D from starting a brawl with their own offense for throwing them to the dogs like the will he’ll keep it within 30.  So…I guess what I’m saying is take Tennessee and learn why Monte Kiffin was so well regarded in the NFL ranks.

I had a little bit a trouble this week picking lines, there are some very interesting match ups out there and some of them are going to be super hard to pick.

That said, I think I was able to find 3 good ones.

Game 1

Colorado – 4

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Toledo +4

Clearly the people are against Colorado.  After a loss to CSU in a game where neither team looked that good Colorado hits the road to beautiful Toledo, Ohio.  Yep, beautiful.  The moral of the story in this game is that the CSU game probably has some bettors in shock, but what they are ignoring is the fact that Toledo is very very bad.  If Colorado sucks, and I’m not debating that, then Toledo REALLY sucks.

That said Colorado has a lot of very talented players and a crazy coach, in my book that equals a win.  Toledo has less talent and a fairly sane coach, that equals a loss.  If you ever get a line where a bottom of the run MAC team is given anything less than 7 points you take the other team, no matter what.  The bottom of the MAC is about as bad as you can be with being the ACC or Sun Belt.  Take Colorado and the fighting Hawkins give Toledo 4 points and call it a win!!!!

Game 2

Syracuse +28.5

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Penn State -28.5

Greg Paulus is a former Duke point guard and a current Syracuse QB, nothing is going to rattle him on the football field.  Seriously, watching him last week you kind of get the vibe out of him that he’s the senior in the freshman biology class who’s taking that class just because he couldn’t get another study hall.  He knows what to do, when to do it, and can probably get through things with his eyes closed.  He isn’t going to get an A in the class but he knows what he has to do to pass and he’s going to do it, his way.  The beauty of having a QB like that is that he probably isn’t ever going to go on Tilt and he’s going to be steady.  Did he make a HUGE mistake at the end of the game vs. Minnesota?  Yep.  Did he make any huge mistakes prior to that?  Not really.  He ran the game like a PG.  The best thing about the week 1 game is that Syracuse found out they have a rough around the edges superstar in Mike Williams.  Sure he had a few drops but he also had 94 yards and a score.  If there is one thing point guards are good at it’s finding the big guys in traffic and Mike Williams is that (6’2 204).

The problem?  They play Penn State.  Penn State IS the best team in the Big 10.  Don’t let the Ohio State every season, pre season, hype fool you.  Penn state may have lost a lot of weapons at WR but still managed to put up 31…against a bad MAC team.  What you have to understand about bad MAC teams is that they aren’t just a little bad, they are real bad, and if you only put up 31 it’s either because you aren’t trying or you suck.  Penn State wasn’t trying to run up the score and I don’t think they will against the Orange either.  That, my friends, is why we take Syracuse.  Give me 28.5, and I’ll bet that Greg Paulus will protect that football.

Game 3

Iowa -6.5

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Iowa State +6.5
This game is a rivalry, and rivalries should be treated like the plague when betting, except in this case.  It’s like the perfect storm hit and you can make one of the easiest bets of the week.  Iowa nearly lost to Northern Iowa, but they didn’t.  Northern Iowa was treating that game like the Super Bowl, and Iowa was treating it like an opening week game vs. a FCS opponent.  Iowa State handled their business vs. North Dakota State and now they are benefiting from a skewed line and bettors on tilt.

The truth is Iowa State isn’t good.  Iowa is good.  Their first week games aren’t showing that, but it’s what the facts are.  When Iowa gives Iowa State less than a touchdown it’s a good thing.

Last season Iowa State put up 5, yep 5, points against Iowa.  I’m thinking they are going to put up MAYBE double that this year?  Iowa has an offense that can score.  Sure they lost a TON from last season but Stanzi to Moeaki is going to be a combo that kills Iowa State.

This is a no brainer.  Take Iowa and give the 6.5.

Come back on Monday and let’s see how we did!

Well ladies and gentlemen it appears as if your thirst for college football will be quenched this weekend!  And what better way to quench that thirst a little bit more than with a 3 pack of bets to start your season?

(All lines via Betus.com as of 9/1 10am Central Time)

South Carolina +5.5

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NC State -5.5

Golly, I really, really, really loved this line on Sunday when it was a simple -4 for NC State.  The fact is NC State has the better team this season AND is playing at home.  On the other side of the coin is the fact South Carolina DESTROYED NC State last year to the tune of 34-0.  There are 2 ways this can go NC State can get a little bit of revenge and beat up on Coach Steve OR they can get down early and think, “There is no way we can beat the east coast USC!”  Personally I think North Carolina State is going to beat the fake USC by at least 9.

North Carolina State has a dynamic young quarterback in Russell Wilson.  Let’s ignore the fact he went 1 for 5 last season against USC.  He was a Freshman in his first game, so that makes him what, like 12?  The truth is Russell Wilson will put up some amazing numbers in his college career, he just fits that mold – you know the Joe Hamilton mold.  Offense doesn’t always WIN games, but a dynamic offense never loses games either.

The reason I bring that up is South Carolina lost so many guys from their defense last year that I wasn’t sure they would be able to field a team.  I thought they were going to go all “Necessary Roughness” on us and try and get Sinbad back for one last season of eligibility.

Sinbad; he looks A LOT gayer than I remember.

The truth is when you are South Carolina and the one corner on your defense that you are sure of is a FRESHMAN in Stephon Gilmore – then you are in trouble.  Freshman don’t always do well in their first games, on the road, with a very hostile…and hot crowd.

The best 2 (4) things to come out of NC State (yeah and that counts Phillip Rivers.)

Take NC State in this one.  And enjoy a Thursday victory.

Game 2

Missouri + 6.5

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Illinois – 6.5

Remember when “Juice” Williams and Arrelious Benn were going to take over the Big 10?  Well things never really got going at U of I.  Last season when Louisiana-Lafayette came to town and almost gave the Illini a beat down things just started going down the toilet.  The major issue with U of I is one that no one seems to talk about, but it’s the fact they don’t have a running back.  You’d think the #1 school in the state of Illinois could grab a kid from that state (which usually produces a good back or 2 a year) and plug him in for 4 seasons.  Well it hasn’t happened.  The good news is that U of I has 4 backs listed on their 2 deeps, ALL with the -OR- listed next to their name.  You know what that says to me?  That says to me you have 0 backs.  Oh well, with Juice and a very talented group of receivers the backs have to do little more than put on their jersey’s straight to have a good day.

Mizzou.  Ohhhhhhhh Mizzou.  Anyone remember last season, when all the talk was about how Mizzou could score like a million points in a game?  Well – we aren’t going to be hearing any of that nonsense this season.  They have to replace their QB, WR, and about 100 other guys on O.  The truth is we don’t have a whole lot to go on with their offense so I can’t throw numbers out there or anything (which is the #1 reason why week 1 games are so hard to pick) but I get the feeling that these guys aren’t going to be able to beat U of I this year.  In fact I’m not sure that the no names of Missouri are going to be able to keep it within 17 points let alone 6.5.  The U of I D is going to be pretty good – expect Martez “Tez” Wilson to have a big game.  Sure he has a lazy nickname but the fighting Zookers are hoping that’s the only part of him that’s lazy.

Take U of I – 6.5

Game 3

Northern Illinois +16.5

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Wisconsin -16.5

I love to bet on the opening Saturday NIGHT Big 10 game, and bet against the Big 10 team.  It happens that for the second straight year that Big 10 team is playing Northern Illinois.  Unlike last year Northern Illinois does not have Larry English to run around and give an oversized and slow Big 10 line fits.  Although unlike last year Northern Illinois isn’t trotting out a Freshman QB, Freshman RB, and Freshman head coach.  They say your 2nd year in a system is when you really start to pick things up.

With a lot of freshman on Northern Illinois 2-deeps Huskie fans can take solace in the fact that NONE of the freshman are listed as starters unlike a season ago.  When you play a BIG Big 10 team like Wisconsin you are going to have to spread them out and tire them, luckily for NIU they run a spread O (where they RUN a ton) with 3 or 4 running backs who can see action and a running QB who can give you some trouble if you don’t watch him.  The speed on the outside at receiver is as good as NIU has had in year with Nathan Palmer and Willie Clark providing the wheels and Landon Cox bringing the size at 6’3 213.  Expect Senior Marcus Lewis and Freshman Martell Moore to also see some action – because they are tall.  You love tall receivers in a spread with a young QB.  Speaking of the young QB Chandler Harnish is going to be the man at the helm this season – he had an OK freshman campaign that was marred with injuries and inconsistencies.  If the saying holds true and you really learn a system in your 2nd year then Mr. Harnish could be waiting to be that next line of great MAC QBs.

Speaking of inexperienced QBs Wisconsin recently named Scott Tolzen their starting QB.  The truth is with an offensive line the size that the Badgers has Tolzen has to do little else but not spin the wrong way on a handoff and he’s going to do exactly what the Badgers want this season.  However, when you have a QB who was lightly recruited, and generally seen as having not a whole ton of talent, you have to worry.  Tolzen wasn’t really that great in High School so you have to wonder if he is forced to pass will he be able to hit receivers Nick Toon and Isaac Anderson?  I’m betting no.  At running back the Badgers have 2 good/great ones in Zach Brown and John Clay.  Clay is probably the better of the 2 and better suited for this offense.  Why?  Because John Clay is a giant and the offensive line is as big as you will probably see – so the young/smallish Huskie line is going to be in for a long day.

When you have a match up like this and it seems like each team should probably have some success on offense you have to look at the spread.  16.5 is just TOO large of spread for a running team with a new QB and a defense that makes their head coach nervous to cover in the first game of the season.  Again when the Big 10 has a team that opens at night they generally don’t do so well.  I’m figuring the folks up in Madison are going to be too drunk by game time to be that huge of a distraction – and I’m not sure they are giving the Huskies the type of respect they deserve.

Take NIU +16.5 and call it a pretty good college football weekend!

Check back on Monday to see how we did, and best of luck to all of you!