Bow Tie Betting Football

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

@

Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

@

NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

@

Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

Last week I went 1-2…and you know what REALLY pisses me off about last week?  I should have at least been 2-1.  OK  LA Tech got smoked and probably couldn’t win in a million tries, HOWEVER, Coach Wanny and the Panthers SHOULD have scored from the 1 inch line…but had to settle for a FG.  I hate Wanny, and the Panthers ALMOST as much as I hate watching a Gummi Bear sing and dance:

Gummy Bear

Let’s move on to this week’s picks:

Game 1

Bowling Green -3

@

Ball State + 3

I think if there is one thing we can say about the betting public it’s that they don’t really care too much about MAC games – this is where some advantages can be found.  Those who don’t really know too much about Ball State probably remember last years team that almost went undefeated…by losing 2 games.  Can they really be that bad just a few months removed from being beat down in a bowl game?

Yes.  They are probably the worst team in the MAC, and that’s saying a lot considering Eastern Michigan is in that conference.  The fact is that they played a few “good” teams close.  What do I mean by “good” teams?  I mean Toledo and Temple.  And if you’re like me you’re probably thinking those teams aren’t good.  You’d be right.  However compared to Ball State it should have been like the Dallas Cowboys playing the Kansas City Chiefs…er….never mind.

The point is you can’t think Ball State is a good team because they played teams that should have pounded them fairly close.  Those teams that should have pounded them are bad too!  Just because they are less bad doesn’t mean that some of the tendencies that qualify them as bad won’t show up during the game – for example the fact Toledo doesn’t send any players out there on D.  They figure the longer their D is out there the less time their O has to catch up.  Take Bowling Green, because Ball State is very, very bad.

Game 2

CMU -7

@

WMU + 7

Let’s stick with the MAC theme this week, I kind of like it.  Here is my theory on this game WMU is getting a slight boost in the line due to the fact they beat down Toledo last week.  However if you read my pick before this you would know that I happen to think that Toledo is a terrible team.

So is WMU as good as they seem to be vs. Toledo?  No.  Are they as bad as they appeared to be vs. NIU?  No.  The fact is that Toledo’s defense has a way of making everyone look good the same way that NIU’s defense has a way of making you look bad.  The fact is the WMU is probably the 3rd best team in the MAC West and CMU is the #1 team in the MAC West.  If we just looked at that we would know that CMU will probably win this game.

The thing that you have to keep in mind here is that while CMU is on the road it should not have any affect on the spread.  CMU does not have many issues when they travel IN STATE for games this season (Michigan State can tell you.)  CMU is a very good football team that probably won’ t be challenged much during their MAC schedule, this game is a great chance for them to feel the need to get fired up and put a hurting on a squad.  WMU will try to put up a good fight but…won’t.  Take CMU, be happy.

Game 3

Northern Illinois University -7

@

Toledo + 7

OK, game 3 and we are staying MAC.  NIU is the #2 team in the MAC west in my opinion, and Toledo isn’t very good.  That was my baseline for this pick, then I stared to do some research.

NIU runs their offense out of a spread formation, however unlike 99% of the spread teams out there they spread you out to run the ball.  They have a play maker in QB Chandler Harnish and one of the best unknown backs in the country in Chad Spann (who is #2 in the nation in TDs and #2 on the NIU depth chart.)  Any time you can have the #2 TD scoring running back in the country as your back up your probably have some pretty good depth at that spot.  A 2 headed monster is never a bad thing when you talk about a running game in the midwest.  These October/November games are going to start getting cold and running the ball is a great way to not have to worry about wind/rain/snow/cold.

The weather in Toledo tomorrow should be some early rain showers followed by 40 degree HEAT by kickoff.  If there was ever a time to have a running team this would be it.

Toledo is not with out it’s charm.  They are a high power offense that can score on just about every play – however their starting QB will probably end up being freshman Austin Dantin – who played great vs. WMU after starting QB Alex Opelt went down with an injury.  The only problem?  Well Austin lit the skies ablaze AFTER WMU took a commanding lead and didn’t seem interested in the game anymore.  On the other side of the ball I have yet to find any solid data that Toledo sends anyone else out on defense other than Barry Church.

Here’s the x-factor, historically Toledo has owned NIU.  That’s why the line is at 7.  Up until last year NIU couldn’t win against Toledo if they had the Dallas Cowboys offensive line…well I don’t think any team could.  Toledo has had NIU’s number.  The problem?  Toledo has a new coach.  NIU has very young starters who don’t really know too much of the Toledo dominance over NIU.  Heck even the NIU seniors are playing this game to even up the series with Toledo over their career.   In fact from 2005 – 2008 the series is tied at 2-2 this would be the rubber match.  I do believe that historical dominance is not something you can ignore, but I do feel that if you break down the numbers and recent history is against the trend then don’t buy into the trend.  Take NIU, and then go out and buy drinks for the whole bar with your winnings.

1-2 last week.  Dang it.  I knew I was in for a let down, and that let down’s name was Arkansas.  The thing that really drew me in was that Arkansas has a QB who can throw the ball about 80 yards in the air – what is not to like about that?  Well…probably the fact that the rest of the team really died after the first quarter.  Oh well, I’ll take 4 – 6 over 2 weeks.  I’d rather be 5-6 or 6-6 but what can you do?

This is a week I feel pretty good about to be honest, and that makes me even more nervous.  One of the betting tools I look for is a good team coming off a bad loss.  The reason I like this as an indicator is that these are just college kids so focus isn’t always there for them.  Goodness knows it wasn’t when I was in school.  Nothing like a loss in a game that they should have won to get a coach to be able to get the kids focused again…at least for a week.

Game 1

Penn State -7.5

@

Illinois + 7.5

Let’s review, Penn State is the best team in the Big 10 – they just can’t beat Iowa.  Everyone has that team that they can’t beat and in this decade for Penn State it’s been Iowa.  Who knows why, or how, but it happens.  That’s the type of loss that will get a team motivated and focused just like what we talked about earlier.

For Illinois Isiah ‘Juice’ Williams has been catching heat like crazy for being a bad QB.  The fact is that the guys around him aren’t helping him out at all.  He’s still the guy that lead U of I to a Rose Bowl – but he’s also still the guy that got blown out in the Rose Bowl.  My theory is this, Missouri beat the hell out of U of I – Penn State will do the same.

Game 2

Western Michigan +7

@

Northern Illinois -7

Western Michigan and NIU share the same 2-2 record, however they have very different wins.  Northern Illinois handled the FCS team they played (Western Illinois) and Western Michigan played a closer-than-the-score game with their FCS foe (Hofstra.)  Western Michigan’s other win came at the expense of Miami Ohio – who is about as bad as you get in the MAC without being Ball State this year.  Northern Illinois other win came at the expense of the Purdue Boilermakers on the road.  The 2 losses are interesting – Northern dropped their opener to a pretty decent Wisconsin squad by 8 and Western Michigan dropped their opener by 24 to an equally decent Michigan squad.  What bothers me about the WMU v. Michigan loss is that WMU should have been playing that game with more fire than any game on their schedule.  It’s an in-state BCS foe who passed over, or only offered in passing, a scholarship to many of the players on the WMU squad.  They didn’t.  They came out and got SMOKED.  The 2nd loss for each team was a bad loss.  NIU lost AT HOME to Idaho and WMU lost to Indiana (who may be better than some think, but I think they just showed up and played out of their mind vs. Michigan last week.)  Terrible losses, however NIU’s terrible loss came last week, a great chance for coach Kill to get his guys FOCUSED again.

WMU is probably going to be without starting WR Juan Nunez with an injury.  Although guys have a way of recovering and showing up fine for game day.

NIU should be happy a team is without a weapon in the passing game because, at times, they forget about the pass.

NIU is too talented to have lost to Idaho, and WMU is down just enough to lose to NIU on their homecoming by over 7.  Take NIU

Game 3

Central Michigan – 8

@

Buffalo +8

Last week I was talking about how much I like Buffalo – but after watching them closely on Saturday I have come to the conclusion that they are just TOO young to be good this year.  With 2 interceptions in the redzone Buffalo sealed their fate vs. Temple.

Central Michigan is a veteran team that is lead by one of the best QBs in the country in Dan LeFevour .  And if you look at their last 3 games after coming off that weird loss at Arizona, (who to be honest had the advantage of having a team from the Midwest coming out and playing a night game), has smoked everyone they have played since.  I don’t see Buffalo putting up a bigger fight in this game.  They may come out and keep it close early but Buffalo just doesn’t have the horses to run this race with CMU.

Take CMU…and enjoy!

Here are my picks for Week 2:

Give me Ball State in this one.  They have a great quarterback, great receivers and Navy can’t stop a passing game.  I love they style of football Navy runs on offense, it more than compensates for the challenges they have recruiting athletes to a service academy.  The problem is that you can’t cover up your lack of athletes on defense if you are playing against a team that can pass like Ball State.  I don’t think this is going to be a laugher, but Ball State should have the spread in hand by the 4th quarter.

My pick in this one is going to be West Virginia.  The nice thing about this line is that it will probably creep closer to ECU as the game time gets closer thanks to our friends at ESPN calling ECU the second coming.  Yep, ESPN doesn’t always employ the brightest bulbs on the Christmas tree, but they are good talkers.  And darnit, I thank them for trying to convince the world that West Virginia is going to be in trouble.  Goodness knows some people treat ESPN like they are THE WORD on sports, well they aren’t.  WVU destroys ECU in this one.  I know WVU’s new head coach isn’t exactly a proven guy, but Pat White is.

I think this is an interesting game, and normally I hate to bet games that I think are going to be interesting, but this line is too large to think that Miami can’t keep it within 3 TDs.  Even if we are talking about them cutting the line down in garbage time when no one is really watching.  I’ll take Miami in this one, Florida’s O looked terrible vs. HAWAII last week…that’s right Hawaii, that mighty defensive school.  Take Miami and the points, I feel pretty OK with that pick.

I like NIU in this game.  NIU has seemingly found a quarterback, and all they really need is to get their running game in line and they should be just fine.  WMU has never impressed me, and NIU did impress me.  I guess that’s what I am basing this pick on.  Being impressed with what you see on the field should be the only reason you make a bet.  I think NIU will keep the game within a TD, it should be close throughout the game though.

Come back tomorrow for the computer picks!

I know it’s only Tuesday, a little too early for me to make my offical picks for the week, but here are some lines I am watching that you should probably keep an eye on too!

This is a game I really find interesting.  Ball State is going to be one of the top teams in a very strong MAC conference this season, and Navy walked all over Townson.  Navy is a fun team to watch for their ability to kick it old school and run the option.  Ball State is a fun team to watch because they have amazing WRs and a dynamic quarterback.  A real contrast, but early on I think this line is too low and Ball State can win by at least 10.

Remember when I said keep an eye on ECU, the lines makers will think fans are dumb enough to believe that this team is more legit than Virgina Tech was overrated?  Guess what, it just happened.  WVU is a legit team, Pat White is an amazing quarterback and he has some speed around him.  ECU beat a bad Virgina Tech team…barely.  All I have to say about this line is Pat White > Sean Glennon

Here is a game that intrigues me.  I’m not telling anyone to bet it, I’m just saying keep an eye on it.  Miami is newly talented, they have had great recruiting classes and those guys are starting to see the field.  Florida is insane.  They have talent everywhere, but still, 21.5 points?  I don’t know if the U is still down as low as they have been.  I think Miami is much improved with a good coach who should keep the game closer than 22 points.  At this point I’m leaning toward making this game an official pick.

Interesting match up again.  I like NIU, I said they are a team that needs to be watched for betting purposes.  WMU isn’t supposed to do anything in the MAC west, but neither is NIU.  So explain how this line is creeping out past 6 points?  I don’t pick winners, I just pick vs. the spread and NIU always keeps games close.  In fact a decimated and bad NIU team kept this game close last year against a much better WMU squad.  I expcted NIU to cover, maybe win, but I don’t really care about W or L.

Those are the games I’m keeping my eye on for right now.  There are some others that may step in and replace them for my final picks, but as of right now I like the 4 I have.  I also suggest watching the line of Standford @ ASU.  Check back Thursday for my final weekend selections!  (And the computer sim picks as well).