Bow Tie Betting Football

Last Week:  2-1

Is going 2-1 ever bad?  No.  It’s always nice to win money, but it sucks when Idaho is the team that kills you.  There’s something about Idaho that should always just scream bad idea…no matter what context it’s being talked about.

Game 1

Akron +11

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Bowling Green -11

Let’s review a few things:

1)  I think Akron is a terrible football team.

2)  Bowling Green is playing for their bowl life

3)  Bowling Green has THE BEST WR in college football in Freddie Barnes.

4)  Freddie Barnes, unlike a lot of other MAC player, shows up EVEN MORE against bad teams.

Take Bowling Green, give the points to a terrible Akron team that isn’t playing for anything.

Game 2

Iowa State +15

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Missouri -15

What a weird season it’s been in the Big 12 North.  There isn’t a team up there that is any good, outside of Nebraska…who I would call kind of good, and every single team looks the exact same.  I can’t tell the difference on the field between Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas, or Missouri!   And on top of that you really have to hand it to Iowa State, they are playing their butts off each and every week – it wasn’t always like that in cyclone city.

Due to those factors my friends, I’m taking Iowa State.

Game 3  (Line only found on Betus.com)

NIU  – PK

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Ohio -PK

This is a pick em folks!  The battle of second place MAC foes who are fighting for the right to play the #1 team for the division crown!

NIU is in the MAC West and NEEDS to beat Ohio in order for their game next week to be for the MAC West title.  Ohio is from the MAC East and NEEDS to beat NIU in order for their game vs. Temple next week to be for the MAC East crown!  You see how this line can be a pick em’?

Why then do I think NIU will win?  Simple, the MAC West > MAC East in football.  The top of the MAC West (NIU & CMU) is miles ahead of the rest of the MAC.  The reason this line is a PK and off the board at other websites is that NIU is probably going to be without one of their top 2 backs.  Which one is still up in the air.  Both Me’co Brown (whom by the way is one of my favorite names in football…any time you get an apostrophe in your first name you’re doing it right) and Chad Spann have an injury that COULD keep them out.  Spann has a shoulder injury sustained late last week vs. Ball State and Me’co Brown has an ankle injury that has been bothering him for weeks.  None of this sounds great for the Huskies right?  Normally I’d say yes, but their 3rd STRING back Justin Anderson has rushed for over 1,200 yards and had over 45 catches IN ONE SEASON!  Why is he 3rd string now you ask?  From all I can gather coach Jerry Kill hates him.  I’m not sure why, but I do know Justin Anderson is a Joe Novak recruit.

Ohio, Frankie Solich.  I love Solich, if you’ve read my picks before you know I think he can out coach about 90% of the guys in D1 and he got a bad rap for having a great season at Nebraska (Hey, I bet they’d take 9-3 now!)  But I have to look past my fandom and accept the fact that his team isn’t that great.  Ohio was able to feast on an awful MAC East.  And by feast I mean they lost to Kent State…so I guess they had their lunch money stolen?  Look the point is that on the field and on paper Ohio doesn’t stack up.  The only place I have them miles ahead of NIU is in coaching.  Jerry Kill does some weird things from time to time in a game – and only he knows why.  He’s the Danny Hope of the MAC.  Even with Solich being miles and miles ahead of Kill I just can’t pick Ohio.  NIU should win by 2 scores, but Solich will keep it within one.

Last Week:  1-2

Here my quick picks for week 11:

Game 1

Iowa +17

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Ohio State -17

Pick:  Iowa

Game 2

Idah0 +31.5

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Boise State -31.5

Pick:  Idaho

Nebraska -4.5

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Kansas +4.5

Pick:  Nebraska

Last Week:  2-1
Nothing really wrong with going 2-1, but I’m shooting for 3-0 this week.

Game 1

Central Florida +35

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Texas -35

I’m going to be honest, this game seems like a trap to me, I mean it just doesn’t smell right.  UCF is 5-3, they aren’t terrible.  UCF hasn’t really beaten anyone, and they really haven’t played anyone of any value other than Miami.  They kept that game within 20.  I don’t seem to understand how UCF is getting 35 points, which is more than they have given up in any single game this season – their D isn’t terrible.  Their QB Brett Hodges isn’t great, in fact he’s at best average, but that doesn’t worry me.  He’s a senior who has to avoid an ECU type meltdown and this game should be closer than 35.  Brynn Harvey is a good young back who might not find a ton of room to run against Texas, but I think he can grind out close to his 3.9 yards per carry average.

Let’s pretend you are Texas for a minute.  You’ve pretty much put a hurting on just about every team that you have played, but you really haven’t played anyone this season.  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State were both without star players which made them average teams.  Outside of that I guess you point to Texas Tech as a good team (They’re 6-3 with wins against bad teams and losses against good teams…what would you call them?)  There just isn’t anything that is that impressive.  They just hurt bad teams – but how long can you keep that up before some mistakes put you in trouble.  Not lose the game trouble, just not winning by 35 trouble.  UCF has enough team speed to keep Texas honest to an extent.  I’m not saying that UCF wins this game, they just don’t lose by 35.

Game 2

Texas A&M -3

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Colorado +3

I don’t like Colorado, they got spanked by Toledo, who lost to Miami (OH)…what sort of loss is that?  I think me and 10 of my buddies can get together and score a few TDs through the air against Colorado.  That’s all the analyzing they are going to get.

Texas A&M, the Texas A&M who beat Texas Tech, is only a 3 point favorite over Colorado?  What?  Why?  If you can beat Texas Tech by 22, you can beat Colorado by 3.  Again, I don’t need to go any deeper than that.  Take A&M.  (I know there is that loss to Kansas State on their record, but I think that’s more of a fluke than a true measure of who they are as a team.)

Game 3

Kent State -3.5

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Akron +3.5

Kent State has found themselves as a sort of “darling” of the MAC.  If you look at ESPN.com or any other site that does bowl projects too early to even be worth wiping your rear with, you’ll find that everyone seems to think Kent is going to a bowl.  Yeah, Kent State.  I’m not here to knock them, they just play a soft schedule and are a pretty darn bad team.  But “bad’ is a relative term, Kent State smokes the spread this season.  What do I like about Kent State?  Tyshon Goode who is a “Freshman” and by Freshman I mean he went to prep school and he’s not really a Freshman at all.  He played a full season of football at Prep school.  So he can play.  The guy is an insanely good weapon for Kent.

Akron?  Well Akron just sucks.  That’s all I can say for them.  Kent knows if they want to be a bowl team they just have to beat the awful teams they play, 1-7 Akron counts as awful.

Kent Wins easily…even though Kent isn’t a great team.

Check back to see how we did!

Last Week:  1-2

Don’t get me started on Idaho AND LA Tech both snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ATS.  I mean Idaho not only ended up not staying close they completely fell apart when they got within 6 points.  Maybe there is a reason that Idaho is historically one of the worst teams EVER in college football.  But it’s OK – I have no business betting on West Coast teams (and LA Tech twice.)

Game 1

Ohio -6.5

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Ball State + 6.5

Again it seems the betting public has lost sight of how bad Ball State is.  I’ll give them this, they are riding high after beating a 0 win EMU team by 2 points.  Any time you beat Eastern Michigan you know you’ve done something…what that something is I’m not sure, but I know it’s something.  They have 1 friggin win…and it’s against EMU!  And you’re telling me that there is someone that thinks 6.5 points for Ball State is enough?  No.

As for Ohio they have 3 wins.  I would stop now, but I can’t.  They only real “blemish” or bad loss on their record is to Kent State…at home.  So I can kind of understand this line – and understand that there may be some concern about that loss – but I’m here to tell you Frank Solich will not let his team have 2 terrible games in a row.  The guy is actually a good coach, the idiots who fired him at Nebraska are still paying for it.  Take Ohio and thank Frank Solich.

Game 2:

Akron + 12

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NIU – 12

Let me start this by saying that I may be falling into a trap here.  I think Akron is just awful and no amount of points would ever make me bet on them, but is NIU giving up 12 points really a good line?  NIU, under Jerry Kill, is TERRIBLE against the spread when they are favored by more than 14 points!  Lucky for us it’s only 12 right?  NIU is starting their backup QB in DeMarcus Grady for a second straight week.  He can’t pass, but he can run.  That should be enough to beat Akron.

Akron isn’t awful.  I would never bet on Akron unless it’s against EMU, Miami OH or Ball State.  That said they have a very deceptive 0-5 record…well not really.  I can’t find anything nice to really say about them, Akron is only 1-4 ATS, that’s terrible.  The only fear I have is that NIU continues to come out and play flat like they did a week ago vs. Miami OH.  I don’t see that being an issue here however as the game is at home and on Halloween!

Take NIU…it’s going to be a weird game but they’ll pull it off.

Game 3:

Missouri -4

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Colorado

Let me say this Gabbert is an amazing QB at Missouri, miles ahead of where Toledo QB Tim Opelt is on the talent scale.  Tim Opelt made the Colorado secondary look like little kids, not just little kids, but like that one South Park episode where the Detriot Redwings put a hurting on Stan’s pee wee hockey squad.  Sure the kids, like Colorado, had something to play for but in the end they just couldn’t do it.

The Colorado Secondary will once again be in tears...

Colorado, what can I say nice about them…ummmmmm…well they have neat helmets.  Ummm…they also beat Wyoming who isn’t THAT bad.  Colorado has a win vs. Kansas as well.  Again – neither of those teams put the Gabbert on you.  Gabbert will hit you right in the mustache from 50 yards away with a bullet pass if he wanted to.  You can’t bet against that.

Take Mizzou, give Colorado all the points they want.

BONUS PICK:  WMU (-4) Over Kent State (+4)

Last week:  2-1

Going 2-1 is never bad, it means we won money.  You hate to have your efforts for a 3-0 day be dashed on the last game, but what can you do?  NIU blew their chances to put Toledo away and ended up losing the game outright.  Well done NIU, well done.

Game 1

Georgia Tech -6

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Virginia +6

Let’s look at this line like mature adults, Georgia Tech is 6-1, the only team they lost to is Miami.  Virginia is 3-3 and lost to William and Mary.  Do I need to go on?  No.  But I will.

Virgina is on a 3 game “hot” streak.  Their wins are against the traditional powerhouses of Indiana, Maryland, and North Carolina.  So what if the best record out of the bunch is 4-3?  They are all great teams.  Honestly, they aren’t great, they’re terrible teams who have played even worse teams to get them the 4-3 records.  Let’s be fair here, Virginia does have an OK QB – and by OK I mean he throws as many TDs as INTs – when you’re Virginia you’ll take that.  The truth is they aren’t great/good/average at anything.  They win games when other teams TRY to give them the win, and even then it’s not a sure thing.

Georgia Tech 6-1, triple option, power run game, and in this game no need to pass.  It’s perfect really.  The way Virginia wins games is when other teams hand them the ball – well when you run the triple option it reduces at least one avenue of turnover, the INT.  Does Georgia Tech still fumble?  Yep.  When you run it as much as they do you are bound to fumble the ball a few times over the course of the season, however Virginia doesn’t have the players to stop the triple option attack for a full 4 quarters.  If this line was around 10 maybe it would be a question, but when it’s less than a touchdown you thank the lines makers and move on.  Take GT, give the points, and buy yourself a nice lunch before the evening games.

Game 2

LA Tech +1

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Utah State -1

Let me ask you something, when is the last time that you ever said to yourself “Utah State is only giving up ___ number of points?!?!  That’s a gift!”  If you’re like me, and the rest of the world, the answer to that question is never.

Utah State is 1-5, so they have that going for them…their win?  Well it was a barn-burning victory over the vaunted squad from South Utah.  When State plays South you throw out the records, cause both squads want a win.   Let me stop right here and be honest, I can’t find anything nice to say about Utah State.  I just can’t.  I want to find a stat that helps me understand why they are favored but I can’t.  I mean I looked at their most recent common opponent in New Mexico State.  Utah State lost by a score of 20-17 and LA Tech won by a score of 45-7.  The only thing that it could possibly be is that Utah State played Nevada VERY close last week.  They only lost by 3 points.  Which is some kind of miracle.

LA Tech has a good team.  They aren’t great, but they will win this game.  So because they will win this game the 1 point line is kind of a joke.  I would tell you to take LA Tech and the money line but there isn’t one posted yet.  So if you can get in on it, take the money line, if you can’t take the point.  Either way LA Tech wins this game.

Game 3

Idaho +15.5

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Nevada

If you don’t pay attention to college football you may be kind of confused by this pick.  Idaho is 6-1, and Nevada is 3-3.  both teams are running through their WAC foes with little resistance.  So if anything this should be a close game, but no not the way the lines makers see it.

Nevada has one win that I would consider nice, they pounded LA Tech.  Outside of that their 2 wins were against lesser foes, and one lesser foe they let stay in the game (Utah State.)  They lost to some fairly poor squads too, I don’t want to call anyone out…COLORADO STATE…but some teams that Nevada lost to you have to wonder how they lost to that Junior High team?  Nevada SHOULD be good.  They really should be.  They have a host of great running backs, the returning WAC player of the year, everything shouts GOOD TEAM!  But they just aren’t.  Something is wrong this year.  I don’t know if they have locker room issues, or if things got to their ego, but they aren’t the team they should be.  It doesn’t look to me like they are going to snap out of anything any time soon.

Idaho, the best kept secret in NCAA football.  I’m not kidding when I say this, they have an NFL QB that no one even talks about!  Nathan Enderle is a Junior QB with the size and arm strength that would have NFL scouts and ESPN jerks creating a ton of hype IF he played somewhere that was not the WAC, more specifically Idaho.  Enderle is 6′5 227 and just starting to figure things out on the field this year.  It isn’t often that you can say Idaho has an NFL anything, and to call him a high round draft pick in 2011 may seem insane, but I’m telling you he will be.  This Nevada game is going to be his coming out party, the funny thing is with the line it doesn’t even have to be.  They are 15.5 point dogs.  All he has to do is not make it his meltdown party and everything will be fine.

One thing that I’ve found is that teams that aren’t used to winning, that have a big game, usually play a little bit better on the road.  I don’t know why – and I don’t have a ton of stats to back me up, I’m just saying Idaho will do just fine.  I’d be tempted to take the money line on this one too, but because we don’t do that here I’m just telling you take 15.5 points and be happy the betting gods smiled on oyu.

Last week I went 1-2…and you know what REALLY pisses me off about last week?  I should have at least been 2-1.  OK  LA Tech got smoked and probably couldn’t win in a million tries, HOWEVER, Coach Wanny and the Panthers SHOULD have scored from the 1 inch line…but had to settle for a FG.  I hate Wanny, and the Panthers ALMOST as much as I hate watching a Gummi Bear sing and dance:

Gummy Bear

Let’s move on to this week’s picks:

Game 1

Bowling Green -3

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Ball State + 3

I think if there is one thing we can say about the betting public it’s that they don’t really care too much about MAC games – this is where some advantages can be found.  Those who don’t really know too much about Ball State probably remember last years team that almost went undefeated…by losing 2 games.  Can they really be that bad just a few months removed from being beat down in a bowl game?

Yes.  They are probably the worst team in the MAC, and that’s saying a lot considering Eastern Michigan is in that conference.  The fact is that they played a few “good” teams close.  What do I mean by “good” teams?  I mean Toledo and Temple.  And if you’re like me you’re probably thinking those teams aren’t good.  You’d be right.  However compared to Ball State it should have been like the Dallas Cowboys playing the Kansas City Chiefs…er….never mind.

The point is you can’t think Ball State is a good team because they played teams that should have pounded them fairly close.  Those teams that should have pounded them are bad too!  Just because they are less bad doesn’t mean that some of the tendencies that qualify them as bad won’t show up during the game – for example the fact Toledo doesn’t send any players out there on D.  They figure the longer their D is out there the less time their O has to catch up.  Take Bowling Green, because Ball State is very, very bad.

Game 2

CMU -7

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WMU + 7

Let’s stick with the MAC theme this week, I kind of like it.  Here is my theory on this game WMU is getting a slight boost in the line due to the fact they beat down Toledo last week.  However if you read my pick before this you would know that I happen to think that Toledo is a terrible team.

So is WMU as good as they seem to be vs. Toledo?  No.  Are they as bad as they appeared to be vs. NIU?  No.  The fact is that Toledo’s defense has a way of making everyone look good the same way that NIU’s defense has a way of making you look bad.  The fact is the WMU is probably the 3rd best team in the MAC West and CMU is the #1 team in the MAC West.  If we just looked at that we would know that CMU will probably win this game.

The thing that you have to keep in mind here is that while CMU is on the road it should not have any affect on the spread.  CMU does not have many issues when they travel IN STATE for games this season (Michigan State can tell you.)  CMU is a very good football team that probably won’ t be challenged much during their MAC schedule, this game is a great chance for them to feel the need to get fired up and put a hurting on a squad.  WMU will try to put up a good fight but…won’t.  Take CMU, be happy.

Game 3

Northern Illinois University -7

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Toledo + 7

OK, game 3 and we are staying MAC.  NIU is the #2 team in the MAC west in my opinion, and Toledo isn’t very good.  That was my baseline for this pick, then I stared to do some research.

NIU runs their offense out of a spread formation, however unlike 99% of the spread teams out there they spread you out to run the ball.  They have a play maker in QB Chandler Harnish and one of the best unknown backs in the country in Chad Spann (who is #2 in the nation in TDs and #2 on the NIU depth chart.)  Any time you can have the #2 TD scoring running back in the country as your back up your probably have some pretty good depth at that spot.  A 2 headed monster is never a bad thing when you talk about a running game in the midwest.  These October/November games are going to start getting cold and running the ball is a great way to not have to worry about wind/rain/snow/cold.

The weather in Toledo tomorrow should be some early rain showers followed by 40 degree HEAT by kickoff.  If there was ever a time to have a running team this would be it.

Toledo is not with out it’s charm.  They are a high power offense that can score on just about every play – however their starting QB will probably end up being freshman Austin Dantin – who played great vs. WMU after starting QB Alex Opelt went down with an injury.  The only problem?  Well Austin lit the skies ablaze AFTER WMU took a commanding lead and didn’t seem interested in the game anymore.  On the other side of the ball I have yet to find any solid data that Toledo sends anyone else out on defense other than Barry Church.

Here’s the x-factor, historically Toledo has owned NIU.  That’s why the line is at 7.  Up until last year NIU couldn’t win against Toledo if they had the Dallas Cowboys offensive line…well I don’t think any team could.  Toledo has had NIU’s number.  The problem?  Toledo has a new coach.  NIU has very young starters who don’t really know too much of the Toledo dominance over NIU.  Heck even the NIU seniors are playing this game to even up the series with Toledo over their career.   In fact from 2005 – 2008 the series is tied at 2-2 this would be the rubber match.  I do believe that historical dominance is not something you can ignore, but I do feel that if you break down the numbers and recent history is against the trend then don’t buy into the trend.  Take NIU, and then go out and buy drinks for the whole bar with your winnings.

Last week I was 2-1 and a lightning strike away from being 3-0.  That lightning strike was just the inspiration that Bufflalo needed to keep it within 8 – anytime you are playing not to get fried you are playing the way God intended.

I’ll take a 2-1 week every week, as should you, it means profit, and profit is what we like!

Game 1

LA Tech +10.5

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Nevada RENO -10.5

A few things about this game jump out at me right away, Nevada Reno is really gung-ho about making everyone say the “Reno” AND they are 1-3.  I’m not really sure which of those 2 things bugs me more.  Nevada should in theory be better than their 1-3 record, and I always thought they were better than someone who tried to give themselves a nickname.  Sure “Reno” isn’t a nickname – but that isn’t the point here.  The point is that they have just disappointed me on 2 levels.

In a serious look at Reno – I like the squad, hate the city, and the record.  They’ve lost to Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Missouri.  Their win was against a UNLV squad that looked like it didn’t want to be on the field with their “Rival”.  The weirdest thing about that game is that UNLV wasn’t as bad as they played on the field that day.  Which also implies that Reno isn’t as good as they played on the field that day.  The score was 63 – 28, however if we break it down it wasn’t really THAT bad of a game.  It was 21-21 at halftime and 35-28 to start the 4th.  It’s just when you let 28 points up in the 4th quarter generally things aren’t going to go as well as you want.

In a look at LA Tech I’ve come to the conclusion that I like their team.  They were only down 13-10 at half vs. a pretty darn good Auburn squad and ony down 14-18 going into the 4th against a VERY good Navy team.  Navy plays everyone hard and there is no shame in losing to them.  Beating Hawaii by a score of 27-6 last week was VERY impressive.  It’s hard to beat Hawaii, let alone hold them to 6 points.  I like LA Tech’s D enough to think that they can keep this one within 10.5.  Take LA Tech and the points tonight.

Game 2

Iowa State + 19

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Kansas – 19

Can someone explain to me what Kansas has done to earn this line?  Beat up UTEP and Duke?  If that’s what it takes to be a 19 point favorite over a conference foe then I think my junior high squad had a pretty decent chance of being a 19 point favorite over Iowa State.

The truth is that Kansas has a decent team.  They aren’t great but the beauty of this line is that Kansas is undefeated in the early part of the season after playing a group of mighty foes.  Heck they beat Northern Colorado – isn’t Northern Colorado the school that had one punter try to kill another punter for playing time?  If the competition is that fierce for the PUNTER spot can you imagine what the other starters had to do to win their spots?  Man…great job Kansas.

Iowa State is 3-2 and their only “bad” loss was a 35-3 pounding from Iowa, but let’s break that loss down.  Iowa is undefeated, knocked off Penn State, and historically OWNS Iowa State.  I’m not sure why there is much surprise that Iowa State couldn’t get their act together for that game.  Iowa State also lost to Kansas State – by a point.  That’s not an awful loss, an awful loss would be to lose to them by like 21.  The fact of the matter is Iowa State cannot play at home, I think that is in part due to the fact that their fans don’t like them very much.  I like Iowa State on the road more than I like them at home.  19 points was just enough to get me to jump on that bandwagon.

Game 3

UCONN +6.5

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Pitt -6.5

I think there is one rule when you bet on the stach, it’s that you keep riding it when it’s hot.  And coach Dave has it going for Pitt.

The best part of this line is that when I looked at UCONN I saw that they are a pretty bad team, with some questionable wins that helped the betting public justify giving them only 6.5.  They beat Ohio, Baylor, and Rhode Island.  Rhode Island hasn’t been good at anything since Lamar Odom promised his grandmother that he would stay in school…then left after his freshman year.  We’ll call it the curse of Lamar’s grandma.  I’m not really sure there is anything nice I can say about UCONN this season.  I don’t like teams that use 2 QBs.  I don’t like teams that rotate running backs AND quarterbacks even more!  And that’s UCONN.  Look, they suck and I’m not sure playing bad non-conference teams should have changed anyone’s mind about that.

Pittsburgh, where to start?  Coach Dave, as I call him…being from Chicago and watching him do nothing with the Bears makes me feel like Dave and I grew real close during his press conferences when he kept telling everyone that all the pieces were in place…well then what the heck happened Dave?  Do you suck at Puzzles or something and have no idea what the picture is supposed to look like so you just throw shit all over?!?!  Damnit Dave…Damnit…anyway what I think I’m trying to say is that Coach Dave is a better college coach than pro coach and he should get some props.  He is a pretty good recruiter and even though he lost a great back he picked up another one in Dion Lewis.  Dion should have a pretty good game against UCONN – hell the Rhode Island back went for 21 yards against them, that had to be a career, if not school, record.  Take Pitt…enjoy the money.

1-2 last week.  Dang it.  I knew I was in for a let down, and that let down’s name was Arkansas.  The thing that really drew me in was that Arkansas has a QB who can throw the ball about 80 yards in the air – what is not to like about that?  Well…probably the fact that the rest of the team really died after the first quarter.  Oh well, I’ll take 4 – 6 over 2 weeks.  I’d rather be 5-6 or 6-6 but what can you do?

This is a week I feel pretty good about to be honest, and that makes me even more nervous.  One of the betting tools I look for is a good team coming off a bad loss.  The reason I like this as an indicator is that these are just college kids so focus isn’t always there for them.  Goodness knows it wasn’t when I was in school.  Nothing like a loss in a game that they should have won to get a coach to be able to get the kids focused again…at least for a week.

Game 1

Penn State -7.5

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Illinois + 7.5

Let’s review, Penn State is the best team in the Big 10 – they just can’t beat Iowa.  Everyone has that team that they can’t beat and in this decade for Penn State it’s been Iowa.  Who knows why, or how, but it happens.  That’s the type of loss that will get a team motivated and focused just like what we talked about earlier.

For Illinois Isiah ‘Juice’ Williams has been catching heat like crazy for being a bad QB.  The fact is that the guys around him aren’t helping him out at all.  He’s still the guy that lead U of I to a Rose Bowl – but he’s also still the guy that got blown out in the Rose Bowl.  My theory is this, Missouri beat the hell out of U of I – Penn State will do the same.

Game 2

Western Michigan +7

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Northern Illinois -7

Western Michigan and NIU share the same 2-2 record, however they have very different wins.  Northern Illinois handled the FCS team they played (Western Illinois) and Western Michigan played a closer-than-the-score game with their FCS foe (Hofstra.)  Western Michigan’s other win came at the expense of Miami Ohio – who is about as bad as you get in the MAC without being Ball State this year.  Northern Illinois other win came at the expense of the Purdue Boilermakers on the road.  The 2 losses are interesting – Northern dropped their opener to a pretty decent Wisconsin squad by 8 and Western Michigan dropped their opener by 24 to an equally decent Michigan squad.  What bothers me about the WMU v. Michigan loss is that WMU should have been playing that game with more fire than any game on their schedule.  It’s an in-state BCS foe who passed over, or only offered in passing, a scholarship to many of the players on the WMU squad.  They didn’t.  They came out and got SMOKED.  The 2nd loss for each team was a bad loss.  NIU lost AT HOME to Idaho and WMU lost to Indiana (who may be better than some think, but I think they just showed up and played out of their mind vs. Michigan last week.)  Terrible losses, however NIU’s terrible loss came last week, a great chance for coach Kill to get his guys FOCUSED again.

WMU is probably going to be without starting WR Juan Nunez with an injury.  Although guys have a way of recovering and showing up fine for game day.

NIU should be happy a team is without a weapon in the passing game because, at times, they forget about the pass.

NIU is too talented to have lost to Idaho, and WMU is down just enough to lose to NIU on their homecoming by over 7.  Take NIU

Game 3

Central Michigan – 8

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Buffalo +8

Last week I was talking about how much I like Buffalo – but after watching them closely on Saturday I have come to the conclusion that they are just TOO young to be good this year.  With 2 interceptions in the redzone Buffalo sealed their fate vs. Temple.

Central Michigan is a veteran team that is lead by one of the best QBs in the country in Dan LeFevour .  And if you look at their last 3 games after coming off that weird loss at Arizona, (who to be honest had the advantage of having a team from the Midwest coming out and playing a night game), has smoked everyone they have played since.  I don’t see Buffalo putting up a bigger fight in this game.  They may come out and keep it close early but Buffalo just doesn’t have the horses to run this race with CMU.

Take CMU…and enjoy!

Coming off a 3-0 week with your picks is never easy.  You can’t top what you just did and the only way you can logically travel is down the mountain.

At bowtie betting we have made it a habit of falling off the top of a mountain as gracefully as we can, and this week I think we are going to stay up there awhile.

Game 1:

Mississippi  -4.5

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South Carolina  +4.5

I hate betting on USC, any USC, and this week I’m going against my feelings for them to bet with my brain.  Mississippi is by far the highest ranked team to ever not play anyone.  Last year they lost to South Carolina at home.  I know someone out there will say, “But that’s the game after they beat Florida!”  And I would agree with that statement, but not agree with it for being the reason that they lost the game.  If they came out flat, then I could believe it, but they actually came out strong and put up 14 in the first quarter on USC for a 14-3 lead after one.  The lost that lead.  It had nothing to do with Florida, if anything they were riding high then came down to Earth.

Ole Miss handled a terrible Memphis team 45 – 14.  But consider the fact that 28 points came in the 4th quarter.  In fact 21 came in the last 6 minutes or so.  MTSU put a better beat down on Memphis (we are counting consistent scoring…not total margin of win.)  I think Ole Miss is a better team than they have been in the past, but they aren’t ‘Great’ and they aren’t 4.5 points better.

The thing about USC is that I’m not a fan.  South Carolina just irks me, I don’t know why.  Maybe it’s because they are the most frustrating team to watch in the world.  Who calls their plays on offense?  Score some friggin’ points, because you should!  That doesn’t mean they suck.

My pick:

South Carolina Gamecocks

Game 2:

Arkansas + 17.5

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Alabama – 17.5

In a battle of teams that both have coaches that I hate I picked the team with the coach I hate the most.  Why?  Because he needs this win.  The world already hates him, but at least he has won before.  If he keeps losing the world will just hate him and he’ll have nothing to fall back on!

Alabama, put the hurting on 2 crappy teams and played a fairly close game with Virgina Tech to open the year.  I don’t know about you but beating North Texas doesn’t make me feel like you are that great of a team.  Julio Jones and Roy Upchurch may not play.  That doesn’t make me feel better about them.

Arkansas, where do I begin?  Your coach is an ass-hat and you are 0-1 ATS.  That said you dropped 41 on Georgia.  I like that kind of party – and there’s nothing more dangerous than a cocky bastard who’s fighting to keep being a cocky bastard and not an idiot loser (Kanye West anyone?)  Sometimes it doesn’t work out, but in this case I’m feeling it.

My Pick:

Arkansas...tough looking mascot if you ask me

Game 3:

Arizona State +12

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Georgia -12

I really want to pick Arizona State and here’s why:

ASU Hottest Fans Ever

But they are making a fairly long trip to Georgia AND they aren’t really that good of a team.  Georgia manages to screw things up from time to time, but I don’t see this one being that close.

My Pick:

Georgia